Joaquim Rodriguez bided his time in today's first of three stages in the Andalucian mountains to save his energy for tomorrow's battle. The short, brutally steep climb in Valdepeñas de Jaen has sections with a 27% gradient and is one of those ramps where the tiny Spaniard is almost unbeatable. The time gaps will only be minimal but Rodriguez will go all out in an attempt to take his second ever win on that climb and deal his rivals a blow in what is guaranteed to be one of the most spectacular finishes of this year's Vuelta. Starting at 16.00 CEST (or at the end of the GP Ouest France - Plouay) you can follow the stage on CyclingQuotes.com/live.

The course

The 9th stage offers a finish which may not have a long history but which has already developed into some kind of a classic. The stage starts in Antequera just north of Malaga and heads north along rolling terrain during the first part. At the feed zone, the riders will continue in an eastern direction as they continue on lumpy roads towards the hills surrounding Valdepeñas de Jaen.

After 116,4km, the riders will head south to start a short hilly loop which contains an uncategorized climb at the beginning. A flat stretch is followed by the category 2 Alto de los Frailes (6,2km, 5,8%) which offers a perfect opportunity for one of the stronger teams to apply the pressure and make the stage much harder. From the top, 16,2km remain and they are mostly downhill, only interrupted by a number of smaller climbs. The battle for position will be fierce when the riders speed down towards Valdepeñas de Jaen as all riders want to be in prime position when they pass the flamme rouge.

The final kilometre is all uphill on a mostly straight road in the small village and offers one of the most spectacular finishes in the race. The ramp is incredibly steep and has a 27% section just 500m from the line. The finish was first used in 2010 when Igor Anton dropped Vincenzo Nibali, Peter Velits, Joaquim Rodriguez and then-leader Philippe Gilbert and was back for the 2011 edition when Rodriguez proved that he is one of the best for this kind of short, steep finishes, beating Wout Poels, teammate Daniel Moreno and Bauke Mollema.

The weather

The Andalucian heat took its toll on the riders in today's stage and they will be happy that they should face slightly cooler conditions tomorrow. There will be plenty of sunshine but the temperatures are only expected to reach a maximum of 27 degrees when the riders reach the finish in Valdepeñas de Jaen.

There will be almost no wind and the slight breeze from an eastern direction will be almost unnoticeable. This means that the riders will have a crosswind in the early part of the stage before turning into a headwind at the feed zone. The peloton face both crosswind and headwind sections on the small loop in the hills while there will be a headwind during the high-speed run-in to the finishing city. The riders will face a headwind on the final ramp up to the finish but as the wind is very light, it will have no impact on the racing at all.

The favourites

Honestly, there's no reason to mention more than one favourite for tomorrow's stage. If you exclude this year's Fleche Wallonne when he was suffering from his crash in the Amstel Gold Race, Rodriguez has not been beaten in this kind of short, steep uphill finishes since he was defeated by a mighty Philippe Gilbert in the 2011 Fleche Wallonne and there is no reason to believe that his string of successes should end tomorrow. No one handles steep sections better than Rodriguez and he has that kind of fierce acceleration on the hardest sections that leaves everyone else behind.

Rodriguez won in Valdepñas de Jaen when the finish was last used in 2011 and he has done nothing to hide that he would love to repeat his victory. Hence, his team saved energy today to be fully ready for tomorrow and we can expect Katusha to take complete control. They will make sure that the early break is not too strong and then they will start to gradually reel it in, making sure that everything is back together for the final climb.

The Russian team is likely to ride tempo on the Alto de los Frailes to wear down the opposition ahead of the finish and we should see some kind of selection due to their fierce pace. That's how they approached the finish in 2011 and that's how they'll do it again tomorrow. We may still see attacks on the category 2 climb - look out for Amets Txurruka who would like to pick up his first KOM points - but any move will be doomed. We should see a fierce battle for position near the top as all riders want to start the descent in the front positions and the fight will only get fiercer when they approach the final ramp for which positioning is crucial.

 It will be interesting to see how Katusha will approach the final climb. Daniel Moreno won the Fleche Wallonne this year and finished 3rd behind his team captain when the peloton last visited Valdepeñas de Jaen. This year he appears to be riding stronger than ever and if the two Spaniards hadn't been teammates, Moreno would probably have been Rodriguez' biggest rival.

Moreno has a big chance to take over the leader's jersey and would need to pick up some bonus seconds to do so. Rodriguez would love to see his dear friend take over the red tunic but also needs his services on the final ramp. Usually, Moreno sets a fierce pace on this kind of finishes to keep early attacks in check and it will be interesting to see whether he will play a similar role tomorrow or be allowed to race for himself.

There is, however, no doubt that Rodriguez is the man designated to lead the team tomorrow. He lost more time than expected in the team time trial and needs to reduce his deficit. 10 bonus seconds would be a welcome time gain and so the team cannot afford to let Moreno take the stage win. It's hard to see another outcome than a Rodriguez' win and he is likely to arrive at the finish in solo fashion, gaining a few seconds on his major rivals.

It's hard to see anyone beat Rodriguez but if anyone has the capability to do so, it is Sergio Henao. The Colombian thrives on the same kind of steep ramps and won a similar stage in this year's Vuelta al Pais Vasco before going on to take 2nd in the Fleche Wallonne.

Prior to the race, we were looking forward to see whether Henao could beat Rodriguez in this kind of finish and were expecting a close battle. However, Henao has not been impressive in the opening part of the race. He lost time due to a hunger flat on stage 2 but today's performance didn't suggest that he is as strong as expected. The finish didn't suit him well and like Vincenzo Nibali, he only lost a couple of seconds to his main rivals. That's no disaster but wouldn't have happened, had he been at his best. To beat Rodriguez tomorrow, he needs to find his very best legs and we doubt that he has them at his disposal the moment. On the other hand, he remains the only rider whose characteristics should allow him to potentially take the win.

Rodriguez hasn't shown any kind of weakness and he is unlikely to get into difficulty tomorrow. If it happens, Moreno will, however, be ready to fill his shoes. The lieutenant is faster in a flat sprint and has a stronger acceleration but on the steepest slopes, he is not as powerful as his captain. Nonetheless, he is tailor-made for these kinds of finishes. If Rodriguez is not up to the task, Moreno will be ready to step in.

Alejandro Valverde is another explosive climber who is well-suited to the finish in Valdepeñas de Jaen. It is no coincidence that the Spaniard has won the Fleche Wallonne in the past. In an uphill sprint on moderate slopes, Valverde is way faster than Rodriguez as he has proved numerous times in this Vuelta. On the steepest slopes, he must, however , accept that his compatriot is superior. Last year's Vuelta had two of those short, steep finishes and on both occasions Valverde had to admit defeat to Rodriguez. In Jaca, he finished 3rd behind his compatriot and Froome and on Mirador del Ezaro - which the peloton climbed on stage 3 in this year's edition - he finished behind Rodriguez and Alberto Contador. It's hard to see him win tomorrow's stage but a podium spot is a very likely outcome for the in-form Movistar captain.

Rigoberto Uran doesn't have a long list of results in these kinds of finishes and his best performance was delivered when he finished 6th in Jaca last year. However, he has all the characteristics to shine on the steep slopes in Valdepeñas de Jaen and he has never found himself in a position to tackle such a climb while in peak condition. That's what he will do tomorrow. Until now he has mostly flown under the radar but he has been climbing impressively and led the group of favourites across the line on today's stage - 4 seconds behind Rodriguez and Valverde. At the moment, he appears to be stronger than pre-race captain Henao and will be allowed to chase his own success. He has the kind of explosiveness that makes him suited to tomorrow's finish and while he is unlikely to win the stage, he should not be too far off the mark.

Chris Horner may not be a very explosive rider but don't be fooled by his riding style. The American has performed well on short, steep climbs in the past. His favourite race is the Vuelt al Pais Vasco of which he is a former winner and that race is loaded with those very steep ascents. When the peloton hit a short, very steep climb in the 2011 edition of the Basque race, he made it into a select lead group with Rodriguez, Samuel Sanchez and Andreas Klöden and one year earlier when he won the race overall, he was only matched by Sanchez and Rodriguez on the excessively steep Alto de Orio. Right now he appears to be stronger than ever and it would be no surprise to see him mix it up with the best tomorrow.

Finally, we will point to our joker. The finish in Valdepeñas de Jaen has been used in the Vuelta twice. When it debuted in 2010, Igor Anton made the rare feat of beating Rodriguez in this kind of finish. It's no coincidence that he has twice finished in the top 5 in Fleche Wallonne. This year he is not even close to the condition he had in 2010 but that was also not the case in 2011 when he finished 6th on a similarly steep finish in San Lorenzo De El Escorial. Prior to today, we would have given him no chance but his strong ride in today's finale indicates that his legs have started to come around. If the favourites start to look at each other, Anton may be the man to strike.

CyclingQuotes' stage winner pick: Joaquim Rodriguez

Other winner candidates: Sergio Henao, Daniel Moreno

Outsiders: Alejandro Valverde, Rigoberto Uran, Chris Horner

Joker: Igor Anton