The final road stage allowed Sergio Henao and Joaquim Rodriguez to get a bit more time before the final time trial but all is still to play for on the final day. With a very interesting course that has a bit of everything, the final stage suits both climbers and specialists and this makes the battle for both the stage and the overall win very unpredictable.

 

The course

True to tradition, the race ends with a time trial around the city where the previous stage has ended and as usual, it incorporates parts of the finale of stage 5. Compared to recent time trials, it is the typical hilly and technical affair but with a distance of just 18.3km, it is shorter than usual. Furthermore, it includes more climbing and includes some very steep sections, meaning that it is less suited to time triallists than usual.

 

The stage takes place on a short circuit on the northern outskirts of the start and finishing city of Aia and sees the riders go to the city of Orio before returning to the point of departure. It can be split into two halves as the first part is one for the specialists and the second half will see the riders tackle the very difficult finale from yesterday’s stage.

 

The first 10.7km consist of a long, gradual descent that suits the really powerful riders. It leads to the northernmost point of the course and then the riders turn around to head back to Aia. Here they hit the tricky finale of yesterday’s course and this signals the start of the climbing hostilities.

 

First they go up the Alto de Aia from the same direction as they did during the second passage of the ascent in the previous stage. It means that it is a 3.5km climb with an average gradient of 8.71%. Only the first kilometre is very steep with a gradient of 12.5% and then it gets easier and easier until the final 500m average just 5.2%.

 

The summit comes with 4.2km to go and they consist of a very short descent that leads directly to the bottom of the final 1.5km ramp to the finish. It is a brutal affair as the first 500m average 12%, the next 500m have a gradient of 15% and the final 500m kick up at 17%, with 30% sections along the way. The final sharp right-hand turn comes just 200m from the finish and from there it is significantly flatter.

 

The Alto de Aia last featured in a time trial in 2010 when Chris Horner beat Alejandro Valverde to take the overall win in the race. Back then, they only did the climb from its steep side but this time they will both use the easy and the difficult side.

 

 

 

The weather

After five days in dry conditions, it seems that the 2015 Vuelta al Pais Vasco will be one of the rare editions where the riders won’t ride a single minute in the rain. A shower is forecasted for this evening but by the time, the riders wake up in the morning, it will again be in dry weather. All day it will be a mix of sunshine and cloudy weather but it will be slightly colder than it has been in recent days as they temperature will only reach a maximum of 15 degrees.

 

There will be a light wind from a northerly direction which means that the riders will first have a headwind on the descent before they turn into a tailwind for the climbing part. However, they will make a turn just before the final ramp where they will again face a headwind. The wind may pick up slightly as the day goes on but the riders will all have almost identical conditions for their ride.

 

The favourites

History shows that the final time trial is the most important stage of the Vuelta al Pais Vasco. The Basque climbs may be tough but they are not very long and this means that the best riders are usually only separated by seconds when they go into the final test. This year the organizers had tried to shake things up a bit more by designing a much tougher course but as we go into TT, the best riders are still very close and the top 2 riders are even equal on time.

 

On paper, time trial specialists like Simon Spilak, Ilnur Zakarin, Ion Izagirre, Tejay van Garderen and Michal Kwiatkowski should easily be able to erase their deficit in an 18.3km time trial. However, Basque time trials are always a very special affair and this year’s course is even trickier than usual.

 

In recent years, many organizers have designed mixed time trials that first include a pretty flat section before they get to a tough climbing part and this year’s Basque time trial falls into the same category. The first section is all about power and suits the big specialists but the final half is extremely tough and here a rider like Joaquim Rodriguez will definitely be faster than a big engine like Tony Martin. This makes the TT a very unpredictable and exciting affair and will also make things stressful for the riders. It will be impossible to tackle a 30% wall on a time trial bike but it is definitely beneficial in the first part. We may see quite a few bike changes in this stage.

 

There is no doubt that the biggest differences can be made in the climbing part even though it is shorter. That is always the case in these tests. However, strong time triallists like Tony Martin and Tom Dumoulin have both been climbing very well and even though they will definitely lose time to the pure climbers on the wall, they may have earned enough time in the first part to win the stage. This means that the stage has an incredibly long list of contenders, ranging from specialists like Martin and Dumoulin over versatile time triallists like van Garderen and Spilak to climbers like Quintana who has won a Basque time trial in the past.

 

Katusha have been riding for Joaquim Rodriguez throughout the entire race and the Spaniard has paid his teammates back with two memorable stage wins. When it comes to the GC, however, their best card may be Simon Spilak. The Slovenian is only 22 seconds behind Henao in the overall standings and he is riding extremely well.

 

Spilak is always very strong at this time of the year while he starts to fade when it gets warmer. It is no surprise that he has excelled in the Basque Country as he loves the rainy conditions and this year he has again been riding at an extremely high level.

 

Spilak is no time trial specialist but on hilly courses he is always very strong. Hence, he has often excelled on the final day in the Basque Country. In 2013, he was fifth in this time trial and last year he was fourth. This mix of flats and climbing should suit him really well and he will be ready to go for the overall victory in tomorrow’s stage.

 

Spilak has been extremely strong in this race. He has been climbing very well on the short, explosive climbs which don’t suit him, and on the Alto de Arrate which is more a climb for him he seemed to be at ease. The performance comes on the heels of great Paris-Nice where he finished second behind Richie Porte in the Col d’Eze time trial and finished on the podium. In this race, he seems to be even stronger and this makes him our favourite to win both the stage and the overall.

 

It will be interesting to see how Tony Martin handles this stage. On paper, one would expect those very steep climbs to be too much for the strong German. However, Martin has been climbing extremely well in this race. In stage 3, he was not far off the pace on the steep Alto La Antigua and today he did an amazing performance in the finale.

 

Martin should be the fastest in the flat first part and with his good climbing legs he may be able to limit his losses in the second part where he will not necessarily lose a lot of time to the best. He finished fourth in the Col d’Eze time trial which proves that he can also do very well in tough time trials and he was won two Basque time trials in the past. He has spent a lot of energy in the last two stages but if he has recovered, he may win the stage.

 

His teammate Michal Kwiatkowski is another big candidate to win the stage. The Pole has lost 42 seconds to Henao and Rodriguez which may be a bit too much to win the race but on a great day, he has the skills to turn everything around. Today he underlined his aggressive nature when he went on the attack in the finale and the effort nearly paid off. It showed that he is back on form after his bad day on the Alto de Arrate.

 

This year Kwiatkowski has time trialled very strongly. He won the Paris-Nice prologue, was 5th on the Col d’Eze and was strong in Algarve and San Luis too. Now he is riding at a higher level as he is approaching his big goals in the Ardennes and this course suits him well. The very steep gradients in the finale are not perfect for him but compared to the climbers he will be a lot faster in the first part. The relatively short climbs should suit him and another time trial win for the Pole is definitely a big possibility.

 

Ion Izagirre is probably in the form of his life at the moment. The Basque has never been climbing so well. Despite doing a massive amount of work for Nairo Quintana, he has been able to finish among the best in all the hilly stages and he is still within striking distance of the overall victory. Izagirre is a very good time triallist on hilly courses and he rarely misses the top 10. Riding at a higher level, he may be able to win both the stage and the race and is probably Movistar’s best candidate for the overall win.

 

Tom Dumoulin has been rather anonymous in this race as his main goal is to build condition for the Ardennes. However, he has always been aiming for a good result in the time trial and unlike Martin he has saved energy in the first two stages. Last year Dumoulin proved that he is one of the four best time triallists in the world and he can do well on both flat and hilly courses. Despite his anonymous performance, he is clearly at a high level and even though the final climbs are too steep to suit him perfectly, his power on the flats may be enough to win the stage.

 

Rohan Dennis was hoping to win this race overall but he has been slightly off the pace on the climbs. However, he has been climbing pretty well and has not been far behind the best. Dennis has proved that he is of the very best time triallists in the world and he is strong both on the flats and on the climbs. He is a bit more explosive than a rider like Martin which should be an advantage in this stage. He has had a long string of second places in time trials but tomorrow he may finally take the win.

 

Thibaut Pinot was once a very poor time triallist but he has improved massively in the discipline. Most recently he was fourth in the flat, technical Criterium International time trial and this proves his progress. This stage should be much better for him as he will be able to use his new skills on the flats and his well-known prowess on the climbs. He likes the very steep climbs and should be strong in both parts of the stage. Tomorrow may be the day when Pinot emerges as a real time trial specialist.

 

This race has been a breakthrough for Ilnur Zakarin who has always been a big talent. Until now, he has been highlighted due to his climbing skills but he is an excellent time triallist too. He is a former Russian champion in the discipline and earlier this year he was 6th in the flat San Luis time trial. This course should suit him a lot better and he should be among the best in both the flat and hilly part. He has been climbing immensely well in this race and if everything goes well, he may win his first WorldTour race for Katusha.

 

Tejay van Garderen is a great time triallist but as he has improved his climbing, he seems to have lost the edge in the TTs. That may not be too bad in this stage though as it includes a significant amount of climbing. He has been riding well in this race but the explosive nature of the climbs doesn’t really suit him and he has actually never been very strong in the Basque time trials. It will be hard for him to win the stage but he should definitely be among the best GC riders.

 

Vasil Kiryienka was hoping to ride for GC in this race but the Basque climbs turned out to be a bit too steep for the strong Belarusian. This year, however, he has been climbing better than ever before and he is an excellent time triallist who has finished in the top 5 at Worlds three years in a row. This kind of mixed course should suit him well and even though the final climbs may be a bit too steep, his power may be enough to take the win.

 

Benat Intxausti has been doing an excellent job for Quintana and is clearly in very good condition. With his combination of good climbing and good TT skills, he has always been strong in the Basque time trials and he has been on the podium in the past. He had hoped to achieve a good personal result and after he has dropped out of GC contention, he still has a chance in the final time trial.

 

His teammate Jonathan Castroviejo is among the best time triallists in this field. The Spaniard time trialled very poorly last year but this year he has been back at his usual level. Furthermore, he has improved his climbing a lot and so this mixed course should suit him well.

 

Their team captain Nairo Quintana cannot be ruled out. The Spaniard has won a Basque time trial in 2013 and even though he is definitely no specialist, the combination of flat and climbing always suits him well. His year the very steep gradients will make it even better for him and even though he is clearly not at his highest level, he could have a good ride in the time trial.

 

Rein Taaramae has been extremely strong in this race and apart from an off-day on stage 4, he has been among the best. Today he played an integral role in Landa’s win and if he has recovered, he could do a good time trial too. He rode strongly on the Col d’Eze in Paris-Nice and even though he is no specialist, he is usually good on hilly courses.

 

Finally Fabio Felline deserves a mention. The Italian has suddenly emerged as a time trial specialist. He got close to the win in Etoile de Besseges and he was the best in the Criterium International. The longer course in Pais Vasco will be a disadvantage for him but he is obviously in the form of his life. With the confidence from his recent victories, he could produce another surprise.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Simon Spilak

Other winner candidates: Tony Martin, Michal Kwiatkowski

Outsiders: Ion Izagirre, Tom Dumoulin, Rohan Dennis, Thibaut Pinot, Ilnur Zakarin, Tejay van Garderen

Jokers: Vasil Kiryienka, Benat Intxausti, Jonathan Castroviejo, Nairo Quintana, Rein Taaramae, Fabio Felline