As expected today's final road stage was not hard enough to produce any gaps between the overall contenders and it will now all come down to tomorrow's final 25.9km time trial. As per Basque tradition, the race against the clock is no flat affair and two tough climbs with subsequent descents will turn it into a thrilling battle between the specialists and the GC contenders.

 

The course

True to tradition, the race ends with a time trial around the city where the previous stage has ended and both the distance and the hilly profile are very similar to what is usually found for the final day race against the clock in the Basque Country. The stage is 25.9km long and is held on a small loop in the area west of Markina-Xemein that the riders already did in the final of the previous stage and so they will already know what to expect

 

The first 4.9km are only slightly uphill but then the riders go up the Alto de Gontzagaiana (3.2km, 6.09%). The top comes after 8.1km of racing and then it is downhill for the next 8.3km, albeit only very slightly in the final part.

 

Next up is the biggest challenge of the day, the Alto de Santa Eufemia (4.1km, 6.75%) whose top comes just 5.4km from the finish. The descent ends 2.5km from the line and then it is flat all the way to the finish. The roads in the finale are mostly straight but there is a sharp right-hand just 200m from the line. The final descent is not technical and should be more about power than bike-handling skills, with Alejandro Valverde claiming that the gaps at the top will be unchanged by the time the riders reach the bottom.

 

With its lumpy profile and more than 7km of climbing, this stage is certainly not your usual time trial for the biggest specialists and if its rainy, the descents may make it an even trickier affair. In general, time trials in the Basque Country are usually dominated by the GC riders more than specialist as the terrain makes it more suited to the more versatile athletes and this is reflected in the list of winners.

 

Alberto Contador won twice in 2008 and 2009 while Chris Horner showed just how difficult these stages can be when he was fastest in 2010. In 2011 and 2013, Tony Martin used a combination of power and good climbing legs to come away with the win while Samuel Sanchez used his great descending skills to win a very rainy and technical stage in 2012.

 

Even though there has been a lot of climbing in the previous stages, the single most decisive stage in the Vuelta al Pais Vasco is always the time trial and there is no doubt that the winner of this year's edition of the race will have to produce a very good performance on the final day.

 

The weather

2014 may be one of those rare years where the riders get through the Vuelta al Pais Vasco without seeing just a single raindrop. There is a risk of precipitation in tomorrow's stage but the most likely scenario is that it will stay dry for the entire stage.

 

It will be a partly cloudy day and there is a solid chance that the riders will see the sun by the time the time trial takes place. However, the summerlike conditions that the riders had a few days ago have disappeared for  good and the temperature will only reach a maximum of a crisp 15 degrees.

 

There will be a light wind from a northerly direction and it should be more or less the same for all starters. This means that the riders will have a crosswind on the first climb before turning into a headwind for the descent. They will have a cross-tailwind on the final climb that gradually turns to a crosswind on the descent back down to the finish in Murkina-Xemein.

 

The favourites

Time trials in the Vuelta al Pais Vasco are always a tricky affair and it would be a big mistake to just use pure TT skills as a gauge when it comes to assessing the favourites for tomorrow's stage. In the past, the Basque TTs have produced some surprising outcomes and often they have been dominated more by GC riders with great technical skills than the real TT specialists.

 

Tomorrow's time trial is certainly not the hardest in the Vuelta al Pais Vasco history but with around 8km of climbing, it is a tough affair. In the past, technical and descending skills have often played a very big role, especially if it has been a rainy day. Tomorrow the first descent may be a bit technical but the final one is very easy. As it is also most likely to stay dry, technical skills will play less of a role and it will mostly come down to power on the flat and climbing legs on the two ascents.

 

Until now, the 2014 season has been one long string of disappointments for world champion Tony Martin. He has done three time trials and he hasn't been able to finish in the top 2 in just one of them. That 's very unusual for a rider who only failed to win three time trials during his 2013 campaign.

 

The start of his season may have been much like it was in 2012 when he failed to reach his best condition for almost the entire year. On that occasion, his early disappointments were pretty indicative of the rest of his season.

 

This year, however, things seem to be different. After his bad start, he seems to have turned things completely around in the Vuelta al Pais Vasco. Originally, he had started the race with the intention of riding for GC but as he dropped his chain at an important point on stage one, he had to put those plans to rest.

 

He bounced back with his excellent stage win one day later. On that stage, he used his excellent power to stay away from the peloton but even more impressively he dropped some very strong climbers on the ascents. Yesterday he did an excellent job in the queen stage and today he proved his strength even more when he stayed in the 23-lead group after several very strong climbers had been left behind.

 

This suggests that Martin is in very good condition and so he is the natural favourite to win the tomorrow's stage. Had it been a flat time trial, the outcome would probably not have been up for discussion but with the hilly profile, Martin faces a much harder task tomorrow. However, many have a tendency to forget that Martin is a really great climber when he is at his best and he surely has hit great condition for this race.

 

He has already won the Pais Vasco time trial twice and tomorrow's less technical descents and not too steep climbs suit him down to the ground. He may not go up the ascents quite as fast as the likes of Contador and Valverde but he won't be too far off. As he will be able to put quite a bit of time into them on the flats, Martin is again the man to beat in a time trial.

 

His biggest rival will probably be his teammate Michal Kwiatkowski. The Pole is a really versatile athlete that masters all discipline but if one has to single out his main strength, it must be his time trialing skills. This year he took a surprise win over TT specialists Adriano Malori and Martin on a very flat and fast course in Algarve and he still managed to take 7th in the Tirreno TT despite being obviously fatigued at that point.

 

Kwiatkowski is great in flat time trials but he is even better when it is a lumpy affair. Tomorrow he can combine his TT skills with his great climbing legs and fabulous descending skills to form almost the perfect athlete for the kind of challenge that's on offer. It is no wonder that Alberto Contador has made it clear that he fears the Pole quite a bit in tomorrow's stage. With Martin in great condition, he may not be quite strong enough to beat his teammate but it will be a close battle.

 

When he came back from suspension, Alberto Contador was far from being the athlete he once was. However, it seemed that his break had had the biggest impact on his TT skills as he suddenly performed terribly in the individual discipline.

 

Whenever the course was hilly, however, he seemed to do much better. In the 2012 Vuelta, he was second behind Fredrik Kessiakoff and last he was just seconds from beating Chris Froome in the very hilly final time trial. This year he seems to be almost back to his very best and this should also put him closer to his best TT level.

 

In Algarve, he was really great when he finished 4th behind some big specialists on a short, flat course but he had a disappointing ride in Tirreno. Tomorrow's stage, however, is a completely different affair with a lot more climbing. Contador is very skillful in that kind of time trials and he is obviously in great condition. It would be no big surprise if he ends up winning the stage.

 

Alejandro Valverde is another rider who is obviously in great condition and he will certainly produce a very good ride. Valverde has never been a great TT rider but on hilly courses he has performed well in the past. He laid his foundations for his win in the 2008 Dauphiné by winning the TT on a similarly hilly course and last year he performed well in the final hilly Tour time trial. In general he has improved his TT skills massively and this will be another advantage in tomorrow's stage.

 

The past few days, however, have also made it clear that he is not at Contador's level. At the same time, Contador is a better TT rider, also on hilly courses as he proved in last year's Tour. It will be difficult for Valverde to take the stage or the overall win but he will certainly not be far off the mark.

 

Already last year Tom Dumoulin proved that he was getting closer to the time trialing greats and by finishing fifth behind the four biggest specialists (Martin, Wiggins, Cancellara, and Malori) in Tirreno, he proved that he is next in line to join the top elite. He has arrived in the Basque Country fresh off a win in the Criterium International TT.

 

Had it been a flat course, he would have been Martin's biggest rival but on this course he is more of an outsider. However, it would be a very bad idea to underestimate Dumoulin who is much more than just a TT specialist. In fact, he climbs very well and in this race he has put his great form on show by going on the attack several times, even when the race has been very hard. He will need those climbing skills in tomorrow's stage and he is an obvious winner candidate.

 

Tejay van Garderen arrived at this race with the clear goal of coming away with the overall win but after his excellent showing in Catalonia and Oman, he seems to be fading a bit. The win is now beyond his reach and all he can hope for is a podium spot.

 

Among the GC riders,  van Garderen is certainly one of the greatest time trial specialists. He seems to struggle a bit in mountain time trials but otherwise he performs excellently, both on hilly and flat courses. In the 2012 Tour, he was fourth in the hilly first time trial and last year he won the hilly Tour of California time trial. As he seems to be struggling a bit, he is unlikely to win tomorrow's stage but a podium spot is within reach.

 

Finally, we will select our jokers. Stef Clement is a great time trial specialist but he is more than that. In the first years as a professional, he was almost only known for his TT skills but now he is rather versatile athlete that also climbs solidly. In fact, his best performances have come in hilly TTs over the last few years. He has been great in the Vail time trial at the USA Pro Challenge and last year he performed well at the long lumpy Giro TT.

 

Clement showed his good condition when he won a stage and the mountains jersey at the Volta a Catalunya. In this race, he has been riding in support of his teammates but today he took it easy to save energy for tomorrow. We wouldn't be the least bit surprised if he finishes on the podium.

 

Jeremy Roy is another TT specialist who is in great condition at the moment. In this race he has finished far better on the mountain stages than he usually does and this indicates that he is currently in great condition. He is no pure specialist as he also climbs solidly and even though tomorrow's stage may be a bit harder than he would liked, he should have the skills to excel in that kind of stage.

 

Among the GC riders, it will also be a good idea to keep an eye on Simon Spilak and Jean-Christophe Peraud. Both have proved to be among the very best climbers in the race and they are both great time trialists as well. The stage win is beyond their reach but they should  both benefit from tomorrow's stage to improve their overall positions.

 

CyclingQuotes' stage winner pick: Tony Martin

Other winner candidates: Michal Kwiatkowski, Alberto Contador

Outsiders: Alejandro Valverde, Tom Dumoulin, Tejay van Garderen

Joker: Stef Clement, Jeremy Roy, Jean-Christophe Peraud, Simon Spilak