Michael Matthews won the first battle of the sprinters but his rivals will get an immediate opportunity to take revenge in tomorrow's 6th stage. Today's lumpy course took the power out of their legs but tomorrow they will enjoy a much flatter run to the finish in Caceres. That could change the sprinting hierarchy on a stage that is destined to end in a bunch sprint. Starting at 15.00 CEST, you can follow the battle on CyclingQuotes.com/live.
The course
The sprinters won't have many opportunities in this year's race and so they have to make the most of it whenever they get their chance. That should be the case on day 6 whose route is mostly flat. From the start in Guijuelo, the riders head in a southwestern direction for most of the day. In the first part, the rolling terrain is similar to today's and has numerous uncategorized climbs. At the 30,4km mark, the riders reach the site of the day's first intermediate sprint from which they start a long gradual descent onto the plains in Southwestern Spain.
From there, the roads are mostly flat and straight for the rest of the day but when the riders get closer to the finish in Caceres, it will be slightly uphill. That will be the case for the final 7km but the gradient should be almost unnoticeable and do little to derail the sprinters' plans.
The finish in Caceres is, however, rather technical. Between the 4km and 3km to go banners, there will be two sharp corners and a roundabout and the next kilometre offers two sweeping bends and two roundabouts to deal with. The riders will go straight through a roundabout just after the 2km to go mark and turn to the right in a big roundabout 1,5km from the finish. From there the roads are dead-straight until a left-hand turn in a roundabout 400m from the finish. Then it's straight to the finish in what is almost guaranteed to be a big bunch sprint. There's a nasty little hill with 4km to go but from there the roads only have a very light gradient.
The weather
The riders have begun their long journey towards the southern coast of Spain and that will be felt. For the first time in this year's race, the peloton will wake up to a hot day in the saddle. As it has been the case for the entire race, there won't be a singly cloud on the sky but tomorrow the temperatures will be far higher, reaching the 30-degree mark for most of the stage.
Compared to today's stage, it will be far more windy but it should be nothing in comparison to the challenging conditions during the Galician stages. With the wind coming from a northeastern direction, the riders will have a tailwind for almost the entire stage. That will only change when the riders reach the finishing city of Caceres and twist their way around the outskirts of the town. The riders should face a headwind from the 1,5km to go mark until the sharp left-hand turn 400m from the line. From there, the sprinters will have to deal with a crosswind from their right-hand side.
The favourites
The sprinters have their most opportunities in the first week and they cannot afford to let any of them slip away. Tomorrow's stage offers the first real chance for a pure bunch sprint where none of the sprinters have been send out the back door by the hilly terrain and it should be a guaranteed bunch sprint. Michael Matthews may have won today's first sprint but no clear sprint hierarchy has been established yet and so there are several teams that will believe in their sprinters.
Today Orica-GreenEdge and Garmin-Sharp did the brunt of the work with Omega Pharma-Quick Step contributing later in the stage. Tomorrow the Australians may have to bear the major part of the workload and especially Garmin may back off a bit compared to today's efforts. On the other hand, Argos-Shimano should have been encouraged by their showing in the finale and are likely to provide some assistance. Unless a battle of nerves breaks out among the sports directors, the sprint teams should be wise enough to keep the break under much more firm control than they did today and it is hard to imagine any other outcome than a sprint finish in Cajeres.
Prior to the race, we would have expected Belkin to completely dominate the sprints. The Dutchmen planned to line up David Tanner, Graeme Brown and Mark Renshaw in support of Theo Bos who would be the fastest sprinter in this field. Renshaw had to cancel his participation due to illness and was replaced by Robert Wagner, and Bos was ruled out of the race by low cortisol levels. With Brown, Tanner and Wagner, the team still has a solid train but the playing field has been considerably leveled out.
Today's finish was dominated by Argos-Shimano. The team is famously known for its sprint train but at this race they have lined up a rather inexperienced team. However, the team rode as if they had been working together for years, timing everything perfectly and it was only Nikias Arndt's lack of top speed that denied them the win.
It will be much harder to take control in tomorrow's stage. The easier stage will provide the sprinters with much stronger lead-out trains at the end and it will be no mean feat to time things as well as Argos-Shimano did today. Nonetheless, we still expect the Dutch team to deliver a solid showing and we wouldn't be surprised to see the squad give their sprinter another textbook lead-out.
Today the team put their faith in Arndt but evidently the German was not fast enough. Tomorrow's easier stage should be one for Ramon Sinkeldam who was the final man to deliver Arndt in today's finish and who has been riding splendidly in the first part of the race. The Dutchman has no big sprinting experience but when he finally got his chance in the 4 Jours de Dunkerque, he grabbed it with both hands and was only surpassed by an outstanding Arnaud Demare. He went on to battle head-to-head with Andre Greipel in the Ronde van Zeeland and the Tour of Belgium. In this field, he certainly has the speed to win and with a strong lead-out, that could be a winning combination. We will make the controversial choice to pick Sinkeldam as our man for tomorrow.
Of course it's hard to look past Michael Matthews when it comes to sprinting in this year's Vuelta. The Australian has twice had a chance in a bunch sprint and he has been the fastest on both occasions. Originally, the team had probably planned to back Leigh Howard in tomorrow's easier stage but with Matthews' current run of form, it would be very unusual for the team to change tactics. We would expect the team to put their faith in the former U23 world champion once again.
He was mostly left to himself in the finish of today's stage as the team had dug deep in its quest to reel in the early breakaway. He did well today but the battle for position will be much fiercer tomorrow and so he will need more support. The team will once again have to spend a lot of riders to chase the breakaway but the easier terrain should allow them to keep Leigh Howard, Mitchell Docker and Baden Cooke in reserve. Combining forces with Matthews, those 4 riders form a very powerful train that could very well dominate tomorrow's stage and if the Australian sprinter is delivered perfectly, it's hard to bet against him taking another win.
When we don't put him on top of our list of favourites for tomorrow, it is due to the easier stage. Matthews has generally struggled to be competitive in flat stages, even when he has had a strong team to support him. It's no wonder that his first wins in Orica-GreenEdge colours were taken at the Tour of Utah where the competition was way below the standard at most European races. He will have to up his game significantly to take the win tomorrow.
Tyler Farrar used his Garmin-Sharp team to reel in the early breakaway but in the sprint, he was completely on his own. Prior to the race, he had one of the strongest trains at his disposal but the loss of Koldo Fernandez can be dearly felt. Alex Rasmussen and an injured Michel Kreder - his final two lead-out riders -both finished more than 15 minutes behind and so the American had to start his sprint from far back. He did a good job to finish 5th but paid the price for a lack of team support.
Kreder may not be recovered yet but Farrar should at least be able to count on Rasmussen tomorrow. His team is also likely to play a less active role in the chase and this should provide him with more firepower for the finale. He is in splendid condition at the moment and if he can time it right, he is fast enough to win.
Until now, Omega Pharma-Quick Step have put their eggs in the Gianni Meersman basket but that may change tomorrow. It's hard to see the versatile Belgian win a traditional bunch sprint on a mostly flat course and so the team is likely to turn their attention to Andrew Fenn. The young Brit is a more traditional sprinter who has a higher top speed than Meersman. He doesn't get his chance to ride for himself very often but when he does, he usually performs rather well, having taken numerous top 5 results earlier this season. He burst onto the scene when he won two sprints on Mallorca early in his debut professional season in 2012 and is a very capable sprinter. Supported by Meersman, Guillaume Van Keirsbulck, Zdenek Stybar and Tony Martin, he should be in the mix tomorrow.
Young Barry Markus was a surprise inclusion on the Vacansoleil roster for this year's Vuelta. Being a pure sprinter, he is usually one of the first to get dropped on the climbs and that will make this year's mountainous course a real test. He is unlikely to reach Madrid but will try to make the most of his opportunities in the first week.
The first of those comes tomorrow and the youngster who will join Belkin next year, may create a surprise. He is very fast, has twice finished 2nd behind Mark Cavendish in the Tour of Qatar and made it onto the podium in the "sprinters' world championships" in Sheldeprijs earlier this year, having only been beaten by Marcel Kittel and Cavendish. His weakness is his difficulties when it comes to positioning and the most likely outcome is that he will finish far off the mark tomorrow. If he gets a clear run to the line, he will, however, be a danger man.
Maximilano Richeze has won grand tour stages in the past but his career was temporarily put on hold due to a doping suspension. This year he is back at the highest level and he has gradually found back his best legs. He gave the first indications in the Eneco Tour when he twice made it into the top 4 and he was only beaten by Matthews today. To survive today's climbs is a major feat for him and proves that he is very strong right now. His main strength is his ability to position himself but he may not be fast enough to win. However, the Argentinean cannot be ruled out if he manages to maneuver his way through a hectic finale.
Finally, we will once again point to our joker from yesterday. Francesco Lasca was amazingly strong on stage 4 but was a surprise victim on today's final climb. Neither Lasca himself nor his team has given any explanation for today's poor showing but we expect it just to be a bad day. The Italian is highly talented and should mix it up with the best tomorrow. A win is unlikely as he is left on his won in the finales but don't be surprised to see the Vuelta a la Rioja winner in the top 3.
CyclingQuotes' stage winner pick: Ramon Sinkeldam
Other winner candidates: Michael Matthews, Tyler Farrar
Outsiders: Andrew Fenn, Barry Markus, Maximiliano Richeze
Joker: Francesco Lasca
30.03: The Bueng Si Fai |
30.03: Gran Premio Miguel Indurain |
30.03: Volta Limburg Classic |
31.03: Ronde van Vlaanderen |
31.03: Ronde van Vlaanderen |
29.03 - 01.04: Ster van Zuid Limburg |
01.04: Gran Premio del Perdono |
01.04: Ronde de Mouscron |
01.04: Giro del Belvedere |
02.04: G.P. Palio del Recioto |
So TANAKA 39 years | today |
Julien BARBIER 39 years | today |
Rongxi ZOU 39 years | today |
Ondrej ZELINKA 37 years | today |
Mathias DE WITTE 31 years | today |
© CyclingQuotes.com