The final climb of today's stage ended up being harder than expected and the puncheurs lost one of their opportunities. They should get a guaranteed chance to take revenge in tomorrow's fourth stage which has another but much easier uphill finish. The GC riders should finally get a chance to recover a bit but have to stay on their marks in case of a crosswind attack. Starting at 15.00 you can follow the stage on CyclingQuotes.com/live.

The course

The sprinters may get their chance on the fourth day of racing but an uphill finish will make sure that it's not a stage for every kind of sprinter. For once, the stage won't start on the coast as the riders have travelled to Lalin over the night. From there they will head back towards the sea and the finish in the coastal town of Fisterra. As the riders won't travel along the seafront, the terrain will be slightly more difficult than in recent days but there are no major climbs and the rolling terrain will have no big influence on the racing.

Having reached the coast, the riders will make a short journey inlands to pass the extremely steep category 3 ramp Mirador de Ezaro (1,8km, 13,1%) where Joaquim Rodriguez won a stage in his trademark fashion last year. From the top 34,4km still remain and so the climb is unlikely to have any big influence on the results. The riders will head back towards the coast to race along the seafront all the way to a spectacular finish at the end of the road on a small isthmus.

The final three kilometres are mostly straight but have some sweeping bends. Two of those are located just before the flamme rouge and then it's straight for the next 710m. A sweeping left-hand turn and a sharp left-hand corner leas to the 210m finishing straight and it will be important to be well-positioned at this point of the race.  However, the real challenge will be the slightly ascending roads. The final 2,4km have an average gradient of around 3,75% and so it should be a sprint for the puncheurs and most resistant sprinters.

The weather

The opening part of the Vuelta has often been dominated by the heat but during this year's start in Galicia, the wind has been the main challenge. That will once again be the case tomorrow when the riders will enjoy bright sunshine and 20-degree temperatures that are perfect for bike racing.

The wind should be even stronger than it has been in recent days and pick up as the day goes on. Blowing from a northeastern direction, the wind will come from the right-hand side during most of the opening part of the stage where the riders head towards the coast. This should make for some extremely nervous race as it was the case in today's stage. When the riders get closer to the coast, the wind should be more of a tailwind and when they turn to the right to head along the seafront, they will face a direct headwind. There should be a tailwind for the final 25km but a couple of changes in direction will make things a little bit tricky. A cross-tailwind on the finishing straight should make for a very fast sprint up the final climb.

The favourites

The puncheurs have long red-circled today's and tomorrow's stages as their best opportunities in the race. Today's final climb ended up being much tougher than expected and it was the GC riders that took the top hounours on the stage. Hence, tomorrow is the day to make amends and the final climb shouldn't offer any tricky surprises.

The early escape won't have a chance. Omega Pharma-Quick Step showed their intentions today when they chased hard to bring back the escapees on a stage that Gianni Meersman had originally thought was too hard for him. His pre-race target was tomorrow's stage and so the Belgian team will go all out to set up a final bunch sprint. Today BMC assisted in the chase, hoping to see Philippe Gilbert finally show off his rainbow jersey on a stage winner podium, and the American team could do so again tomorrow. Furthermore, Orica-GreenEdge has selected this stage as one of its main objectives and even though the Australians are famously known for not doing an awful lot of chase work, they will offer their supported if it is needed. Finally, the windy conditions will make for some very nervous racing and this will be enough to spell the end for the breakaway's chances. We could very well see a scenario similar to today's with the peloton splitting up due to either crosswind or crashes.

It will be very interesting to find out what role Mirador del Ezaro will play. As it was evidenced last year, this brutally steep climb has the potential to splinter the peloton to pieces but with 34km still to go, we doubt that there will be too much action. The GC riders will be happy to ride steadily up the climb and even the hardest sprinters will fear the steep slopes to such an extent that they are unlikely to use their teams to apply the pressure. Many riders could still get dropped but they will have time to get back on.

We could see some attacks but the riders who are able to escape on such a steep climb should all be rather well-placed on GC. That will force Radioshack into action as the Luxembourgish team will do their utmost to keep the jersey as long as they can. Combining forces with the sprint teams, the squad should neutralize any dangerous moves and so it is likely to come down to an uphill sprint.

Gianni Meersman will have the full support of his team and he is riding really well at the moment. Having made it up the today's difficult climb just behind the GC guys, the Belgian must have got confidence from today's performance and tomorrow's uphill finish suits him perfectly. Last year he won on a similar climb in the Paris-Nice and he stands out to repeat that feat tomorrow. Having had a fantastic season so far with dominant performances in Catalonia, Romandie and the Dauphiné, the Belgian is ready to finally take that elusive grand tour win and tomorrow's stage should be his best option.

His biggest threat could be the Orica-GreenEdge team. The Australians went into today's stage with a two-pronged attack consisting of Simon Gerrans and Michael Matthews. The former went down in the big crash that split the peloton and faced a long chase to get back on. As he was not feeling well, he asked his team to focus on Matthews and they took control on the first part of the climb. As the stage ended up being one for the GC riders, it was no surprise that Matthews was not in the mix. For the sprinter to finish just 41 seconds behind the stage winner is, however, an impressive performance and is another testament to his fantastic form and impressive climbing legs that were also put on show in the recent Tour of Utah. Having twice won sprints in Stirling in the Tour Down Under (to take a 1st and 2nd place respectively), he has all the characteristics to perform well tomorrow. With Gerrans having gone down in a crash, the team is likely to focus on Matthews tomorrow. We doubt that he is as fast as Meersman but with a strong team to support him, he could take the win.

Philippe Gilbert had hoped to perform better today but the final climb was too hard for the world champion who finished alongside Meersman just behind the GC riders. That clearly illustrates that the world champion is still not completely recovered from his Eneco crash but he may have a chance in today's easier finish. He recently finished 2nd behind Arnaud Demare in a similar finish in the Eneco Tour and today's slightly longer climb may suit him better compared to the faster guys. He was going well prior to his crash and cannot have lost all of his condition. It may finally be the day when he wins a race in the rainbow jersey.

Despite today's crash, it would be a mistake to rule out Gerrans. The Australian has all the characteristics to shine in today's finish. He went head-to-head with Alejandro Valverde in a similar finish in last year's Paris-Nice and won an uphill sprint in this year's Volta a Catalunya as well. His team is likely to support Matthews tomorrow but the final decision may be taken on the road. If Gerrans feels great, his team may put their faith in the fast Australian and if that ends up being the plan, he would be our favourite to win.

The man with the best chances in tomorrow's finish would actually have been Alejandro Valverde. The road is steep enough to take away some of the power of his faster rivals and the Spaniard is usually very difficult to beat in this kind of finish. However, it will be a very fast run to the finish and with two turns coming up just before the line, he will have to take some risks to contend for the win. Today's stage suited him even better but he actually hadn't planned to go for the win which explains why his Movistar team was nowhere to be seen on the final climb. It was only the unexpectedly hard circumstances that made him do the sprint. We doubt that he is willing to risk anything tomorrow but if he decides to go for the win, he will be a clear winner candidate.

Edvald Boasson Hagen had claimed to be in good condition despite his recent recovery from a broken shoulder but the early stages have done nothing to prove him right. He was dropped in the team time trial and has struggled on the two uphill finishes. The slightly easier stage tomorrow should suit him better and the Norwegian has all the characteristics to do well. We doubt that he has the condition to come out triumphant but won't completely rule out a win for the talented Norwegian.

There are a couple of fast riders who are all suited to this kind of finish. Grega Bole, Anthony Roux and Daniele Ratto will all have red-circled tomorrow's finish as one for them, the latter two having recently been protagonists in the many uphill sprints in the Vuelta a Burgos. The Argos-Shimano duo Reinhardt Janse Van Rensburg and Nikias Arndt will give it a go tomorrow with the former being the most likely leader on this stage. Tyler Farrrar finished third on an even steeper climb in the Eneco Tour and appears to be riding strongly at the moment. His days as a top-level sprinter may be over (he may still win some sprint stages in this year's Vuelta) but he may now show more versatile abilites.

Finally, we will once again point to Fabian Cancellara. The Swiss is here to prepare for the world championships and is extremely lean these days. He is likely to test his condition at some point during the race and tomorrow's finish is perfect for one of his late trademark attacks. He will probably have to ride in support for Horner but if he gets carte blanche and decides to go for the win, a late Cancellara attack could be lethal.

CyclingQuotes' stage winner pick: Gianni Meersman

Other winner candidates: Michael Matthews, Philippe Gilbert

Outsiders: Simon Gerrans, Alejandro Valverde, Edvald Boasson Hagen

Jokers: Fabian Cancellara, Tyler Farrar