Chris Horner finds himself in red with two days to go of the Vuelta a Espana but nothing is guaranteed until the riders roll out on the final parade into Madrid. The route designers have put the most difficult challenge of the entire race at the end as the riders face the legendary, brutally steep Alto de l'Angliru at in tomorrow's stage. On the 23% slopes, time losses are counted in minutes and much can change on one of the most feared climbs in Europe. Starting at 15.00 CEST you can follow the big showdown on CyclingQuotes.com/live.

The course

One Spanish climb is more feared than any other. The excessively steep Alto de l'Angliru has produced some huge dramas since its first inclusion in 1999 and it is only natural that the organizers have been tempted to make the race come to a dramatic conclusion on the steep slopes just one day prior to the Madrid finish. That's what they have decided to do and they will overcome the logistical difficulties that is related to its geographical location rather far from Madrid.

At just 142,2km, the stage is short and intense and kicks off in the coastal city of Aviles. The first part is rather easy as the riders will stay near the sea but the terrain will gradually get more difficult as they turn left to head towards the mountains. This part mostly consists of gradually ascending roads but the category 3 Alto de la Cabruñana (5,2km, 6,6%) and the steep category 2 Alto de Tenebredo (3,4km, 10,5%) will challenge the riders while they try to save energy for the difficult finale.

It kicks off with 26,6km to go when the riders hit the bottom of the category 1 Alto del Cordial (5,3km, 9,6%, max. 12,14%) which often precede the Angliru and is a short, steep leg breaker. The gradient will stay above the 8% mark all the way up and has some steeper ramps along the way. This is a perfect opportunity for a team to ride tempo as they try to put their rivals under pressure ahead of the crucial challenge. A fast descent - on which Igor Anton crashed out of the race is 2008 - leads to the bottom of the mighty category HC Alto de l'Angliru (12,2km, 10,2%, max. 23,5%).

The first 6km are fairly "easy" with a rather constant 8-9% gradient but from there hell breaks loose. During the next 4km, the gradient will stay above 12% and the climb has some excessively steep parts with the gradient reaching its peak at 23,5% 2km from the finish. The climb gets a little easier towards the finish where it has a 10% gradient but a 21% ramp just 1km from the finish will still make for a torturous final. The KOM points will be awarded 600m from the line and from there a straight, slightly downhill section and a 200m of slightly ascending roads remain. On such a steep climb, it is every man for himself and the GC can potentially be turned upside down on the penultimate day with a climb that can produce bigger time gaps than any other in the race.

There are several hairpin bends inside the final 5km of the stage and the final one is located just before the flamme rouge. From there, there is one sharp turn and a number of sweeping corners. The final one leads onto the 500m finishing straight.

The climb debuted in 1999 when climber Jose Maria Jimenez beat Pavel Tonkov in a sprint at the top while Gilbert Simoni crushed the opposition one year later, finishing more than 2 minutes ahead of his nearest rival. Roberto Heras put 1.35 into Joseba Beloki in 2002 which preceded a long absence for the Asturian climb. It made a comeback in 2008  when Alberto Contador beat then-teammates Alejandro Valverde and Joaquim Rodriguez while it made its most recent appearance in 2011. On that occasion, Juan Jose Cobo laid the foundations for his overall win by taking a dominant solo victory while Chris Froome was finally allowed to leave his struggling team captain and race leader Bradley Wiggins behind. A similar spectacle is expected this year as the GC battle in the Vuelta will come to a very dramatic end.

The weather

A couple of days ago, rain was forecasted for tomorrow's stage but the weather gods have shown their mercy. The change in conditions will arrive a bit later than expected and the rain won't reach Alto de l'Angliru until later in the evening.

At the start in Aviles, the riders can expect a partly sunny sky and temperatures that hover around the 22-degree mark.  When the peloton leaves the coast, the clouds will disappear and the riders will enjoy sunny conditions and 22-degree temperatures for most of the stage. Towards the end of the race, clouds will start to make their presence felt and if the riders are unlucky, they may get some rain for the final climb up Angliru.

There will be a moderate wind from a northwesterly direction and it will pick up as the day goes on. This means that the riders will have a crosswind on the first coastal section before turning into a cross-tailwind that will later become a direct tailwind. At the bottom of the Alto del Cordal, the riders will turn into a headwind and that will be the conditions all the way to the bottom of the Angliru. There will mostly be a crosswind on the final climb and it turns slightly into more of a tailwind inside the final kilometre. However, the wind won't play much of a role on such a steep climb where the legs will do all the talking.

The favourites

Everybody wants to win on the Angliru which is one of the most prestigious climbs in Europe and one would expect the race favourites to bring everything back together for the final climb. It's the final real day of racing and there's no reason to save any domestiques for the coming days. They can all go flat out to reel in the early escape.

That's the most likely outcome but a breakaway win cannot be completely ruled out. Chris Horner has been superior on the steepest climbs and it's hard to imagine that things to have turned around overnight. There's really no reason for Astana, Movistar or Katusha to reel in the break if they are just going to be beaten by Horner. Their best chance of winning the stage comes from a breakaway.

Hence, the early chase work is most likely left entirely to Radioshack. However, the Luxembourgish  team will do their utmost to set up their American captain for a win. There would be no better way to seal a grand tour win than by winning on one of the hardest climbs in Europe and Horner would love to do so.

The loss of Haimar Zubeldia and Fabian Cancellara will be felt but Horner remains surrounded by a strong team that's able to handle this kind of terrain. They have to stay aware in the hectic beginning to make sure that the break is not too strong and we believe that they will be powerful enough to keep things under control.

Katusha may decide to lend them a hand. Joaquim Rodriguez has set his sights on the podium and to get there, bonus seconds would be welcome. It cannot be ruled out that the Russian team will join forces with Radioshack. If Movistar miss the break - which is unlikely to happen - they may even contribute as well. However, the brunt of the work will be left to Radioshack.

It will be interesting to see what's going to happen on the Alto del Cordal and especially on its descent. There are no flat roads in between the day's two major climbs and so Vincenzo Nibali may try to get a small advantage by going full gas down the descent to get an advantage - especially if he has a teammate in the early break. He would have loved rainy conditions which would have made it easier for him to take advantage of his superior descending. On the other hand, Horner has shown no weakness on the downhill sections and as only the first part of the descent is technical, it may be difficult for Nibali to drop his rival.

If it comes back together for the final climb, it's very hard to see a different outcome than a Horner win. On those steep slopes, there's no tactics involved and it's all about climbing prowess. Horner only appeared to be on his limit in the cold on Collada de la Gallina and since then Nibali's level has decreased significantly. It's hard to bet against Horner winning both the stage and the Vuelta.

The rider that may have a - very - slight chance of beating Horner is Joaquim Rodriguez. The steep slopes suit the tiny Spaniard well but he would have preferred a shorter climb. He has never won a stage on one of those brutally steep mountains. When they climbed the Alto de Hazallanas earlier in the race, he claimed to feel well on the lower slopes before fading towards the end. Rodriguez simply doesn't excel when the steep climbs get too long. He may be on the rise but it is suggestive that he has delivered his best performances in this race on the less selective climbs on Monday and today while he has had a difficult time when the climbs have been harder.

Alejandro Valverde knows himself extremely well and this may be what saves his podium place. While Rodriguez and Nibali have both had a tendency to go too deep into the red zone before blowing completely up, Valverde has raced a smart race, riding within his limits and always getting back towards the end of the climbs. That ability is extremely important on Angliru where any kind of acceleration will be costly. It's no wonder that he finished 2nd behind Contador and ahead of Rodriguez on the climb in 2008. Valverde is not the strongest climber in the race but until now he has used his head to position himself well near the top of the leader board.

It will be interesting to see how Nibali approaches the climb. He paid a costly price on Peña Cabarga by trying to follow Horner. Having gone too  far into the red, he lost more time than he would have done if he had raced a bit more conservatively. On Angliru such a strategy may be even more costly and as Nibali is now far below Horner's level, it would be wise to focus more on defending his position than trying to unseat Horner.

The most likely rider to beat Horner is an early escapee and the race is loaded with climbers who will give it one last go in an attempt to pick up a stage win. One of those riders is Igor Anton. Midway through the race, he was riding really well but has faded a little towards the end. Where he really excels, is on long, steep climbs. It is no wonder that he rode away from Alberto Contador on the Monte Zoncolan in the 2011 Giro and that his best performance in this race was delivered on the steep Alto de Hazallanas. Yesterday he took it easy to save energy for today. This is the stage that the Euskaltel rider would most dearly want to win.

We have had much faith in Rigoberto Uran to take a breakaway win and he almost got it on Aramon Formigal earlier this week. He is well-suited to this kind of steep climb and today he proved that he still has plenty of power in his legs. If he hadn't suffered in the Andorran cold, he would have been in top 10 contention and now he wants to make up for the failure by winning on Angliru.

Today, Saxo-Tinkoff decided to focus on Nicolas Roche and didn't put a rider into the breakaway. According to Chris Anker Sørensen, that strategy may change tomorrow and if so, the team has a genuine winner candidate. Rafal Majka finds himself in the same position as Uran but his splendid climbing on Naranco today proves that he is still feeling good. He handled the steep climbs in the Giro extremely well and would be a danger man if he gets into the early break.

We have had much confidence in Jose Herrada and today's race gave us no reason to change that. Once again the Spaniard was on the attack and once again he proved that he is one of the very best climbers in this race. After being caught, he still held on to take 15th and sits in 13th on GC despite doing an amazing job for Valverde throughout the race. As said, Valverde is unlikely to win on the Angliru and if Movistar want to keep their grand tour stage win streak alive, it has to be from an early breakaway. Herrada is their best option.

CyclingQuotes' stage winner pick: Chris Horner

Other winner candidates: Joaquim Rodriguez, Igor Anton

Outsiders: Rigoberto Uran, Rafal Majka, Alejandro Valverde

Joker: Jose Herrada