Finally, Philippe Gilbert got his win in the rainbow jersey but it was one day earlier than expected. Tomorrow's transitional stage is the final one ahead of the Pyrenean triptych. The brutal Alto del Rat Penat and an uphill finishing straight should rule out the pure sprinters on what appears to be a highly unpredictable affair that could both be won by an escapee and a puncheur in a sprint from a decimated bunch. Starting at 15.00 CEST you can follow the stage on CyclingQuotes.com/live.

The course

The peloton is getting closer to the Pyrenees and a resumption of the GC battle but before they get to the mighty mountains, they face another mostly flat stage. The riders have left the coast to start in Valls and the course takes them back to the seafront and a finish in Castelldefels. The start of the stage is flat but at the 13km mark, they reach the bottom of the category 3 Coll de la Torreta (10km, 5,8%). A short flat section at the top and a long, gradual descent is followed by some rolling terrain and another descent which takes the riders back to the coast and a passage through Castelldefels.

The riders won't cross the finish line this time and will instead head onto a nasty 60,3km finishing circuit. Almost immediately they leave the coast to climb the very steep category 1 Alto del Rat Penat (4,3km, 10,6%, max. 16%). This is a nasty climb whose gradients barely drop below the 10% mark and has a very hard middle section with 14-16% gradients. From the top, the riders head down a long gradual descent towards the coast which is only interrupted by one smaller climb. The final 25km consist of dead-flat roads along the coast back to Castelldefels.

Just before the 3km to go banner, the riders turn left to leave the seafront and pass through a number of roundabouts on a mostly straight road that bends slightly to the left. Two of the roundabouts are located inside the final kilometre with the last one coming around 400m from the line. Those 400m are, however, all uphill with a 7% gradient which means that a traditional sprint finish is unlikely.

At least that's what the roadbook says. Today's tough finish showed that you cannot always expect the information by the race organizers to be in accordance with reality!

The weather

The riders need to enjoy tomorrow's stage as weather conditions in Northern Spain are expected to change tomorrow evening. Rain is forecasted for the three Pyrenean stages and the riders may already get their first taste of the wet conditions towards the end of tomorrow's stage.

The race will start in sunshine but compared to the recent trend, the sky will be more cloudy. The temperatures will drop to just 25 degrees. Towards the end of the stage, more clouds will make their presence felt and the temperature is expected to drop a bit. The riders may even face the additional challenge of an afternoon shower at the end.

There will be a moderate wind from a southern direction which means that the riders will mostly have a crosswind when they head towards the sea. The conditions will be similar to today's and so it is unlikely to split things up. However, it should - depending on the exposure of the roads - make for a nervous day in the saddle. Towards the end of the race, the wind should decrease and the riders will face a direct headwind when they head down towards the coast from the top of the Alto de Rat Penat and a direct crosswind during the final 25km along the coast. Like today, this will increase the tension in the finale. The riders should have a tailwind during most of the final 3kilometres before turning into a crosswind for the final 500m.

The favourites

Tomorrow's stage is one of the most unpredictable of the entire race. The Alto del Rat Penat will have a major impact on the race and this is surely not a stage for the pure sprinters. Instead, two scenarios are equally realistic: a successful breakaway or a sprint form a decimated bunch.

When the torturous Rat Penat was last included in a stage in 2010, a breakaway stayed away to the finish with Imanol Erviti taking a solo win 27 seconds ahead of the his escape companions and we could very well see a similar outcome tomorrow. The sprinters know that they won't survive the brutal ascent and so there is no reason for their teams to chase. It will be left to the teams with punchier guys to bring it back together.

Everybody knows that this is a good opportunity for a break and so we are likely to see a very fast start. With a category 3 climb in the early part of the stage, the racing will be very tough and numerous riders will get into difficulty from the very beginning. A likely scenario is that the riders will have to race for more than an hour before the elastic finally snaps.

The composition of the breakaway will determine the further outcome of the stage. If the key teams are all represented, it is likely to stay away to the finish while the GC riders will get the chance to roll along at a steady pace, saving energy for what will be three crucial days in the Pyrenees. If certain teams miss out, they could try to bring it back together for a sprint.

We believe that Philippe Gilbert had singled this stage out as his best opportunity to win in the rainbow jersey and the stage still suits him very well. After today's win, the pressure has decreased and BMC may now be more likely to let a break take the stage win. On the other hand, Gilbert has now increased confidence and may want to capitalize further on his good condition. Hence, we may see that BMC brings it back together.

Orica-GreenEDGE has declared that they have big plans for tomorrow. They could both include a sprint with Michael Matthews or Simon Gerrans or a breakaway with Gerrans or Simon Clarke. They cannot be confident that Matthews will make it over the climb with the best riders and so they are likely to try both strategies. If they miss out on the break, they may organize a chase.

Omega Pharma-Quick Step may have plans with Gianni Meersman or Zdenek Stybar and find themselves in a position that is not too different from Orica-GreenEDGE's. The final team that may organize a chase is Sky. The stage suits Edvald Boasson Hagen well but the team may have too much of a GC mindset to put too much emphasis on their Norwegian sprinter. The most likely teams to bring it back together are BMC and Orica-GreenEDGE.

Should a breakaway decide the win, we are likely to see an early selection on the Rat Penat but with a headwind stretch to the coast and 50km to the finish, it will be very difficult to finish off a solo attack. Instead, we can expect the best climbers of the break battle it out on the final stretch along the coast. The GC riders will be happy to get an easy ride and will be content to roll up the climb at a gentle pace.

If a chase has been organized and the break is catchable, it will be very interesting to see how the climb plays out. New attacks may be launched and the climb is so difficult that none of the teams which hope for some kind of sprint finish, can allow themselves to go too hard. We may, however, see BMC try to apply some kind of pressure to get rid of the likes of Meersman and Matthews. For the sprinters, it will be a survival battle and the final part of the stage could very well evolve into some kind of pursuit where the faster guys try to get back on while the peloton tries to catch potential escapees.

Actually, we may see FDJ apply some kind of pressure on the climb. Thibaut Pinot hates the fierce battle for position and in the Tour de France and earlier in the Vuelta, he used his team to whittle down the size of the peloton by stringing out things on the climbs. A smaller peloton makes things less hectic in the final part along the coast and that would suit Pinot much better. He applied a similar strategy on stage 2 of this year's Tour and on stage 9 of this year's Vuelta.

With BMC having won a stage today, we expect a breakaway win to be the most likely outcome and so our stage winner pick is a potential escapee. Luis-Leon Sanchez rarely enters a grand tour in peak condition without getting a stage win and he appears to be riding strongly right now. Having mostly focused on the Tour, he has rarely been at his best in his home race and so far a stage win has eluded him. This year he was omitted from Belkin's Tour selection and he has put all his eggs in the Vuelta basket.

Sanchez is better than most to get into the right breakaway and the stage has all the characteristics that makes it one for him. The climb may be a little bit too steep to his liking but should he get dropped by a better climber, he has time to get back. When he won the stage to Foix in last year's Tour de France, he was left behind on the equally steep Mur de Peguere but clawed his way back on the descent before launching a devastating attack on the flat run-in to the finish to leave Peter Sagan behind.

His 13th place in the time trial proves that he is riding strongly and he has an extra asset with his fast sprint. Should the stage be contested by a decimated bunch, he is also likely to try his hand in the uphill sprint which suits him well. In that scenario, it will be difficult for him to win but from a breakaway, he will be very hard to beat.

If it comes down to a sprint, it's hard to imagine a different winner than Gilbert. His outstanding performance in today's finale shows that it's some kind of a repeat story of last season. He turns around a difficult season by coming strongly out of the Tour and is now shining in the Vuelta. A 7% sprint suits him perfectly and we honestly can't see anyone beating him in that kind of finish.

Gilbert may even try to get into the early break and if that happens, he will be a genuine winner candidate. The Rat Penat is probably a bit too difficult to suit him perfectly but like Sanchez, he will have time to get back on. As a potential winner from both scenarios, it's hard to omit Gilbert from our list of favourites.

The rider that may beat him in a sprint is Edvald Boasson Hagen. The Norwegian was under-prepared at the start of the race, having recently recovered from his shoulder injury, but he has gradually improved his form. He launched impressive attacks on hard climbs on stage 3 and 9 and this proves that his climbing legs are getting back up to speed. As the GC riders won't ride up the climb at full speed, he is likely to survive and the uphill sprint suits him well. He will have to time everything perfectly to beat Gilbert but if the climb is a little less steep than suggested in the roadbook, he should be in with a chance.

Boasson Hagen may even try to get into the breakaway. With Sky's GC ambitions having been dealt a serious blow, the team has shown that it is ready to race aggressively. The finale suits Boasson Hagen well and it will not be unusual for him to win from breakaways, having won a much harder stage in the 2011 Tour de France.

Michael Matthews has been climbing splendidly and if he has the same climbing legs as he had on the final stage of the Tour of Utah, he will survive tomorrow's climbing. Uphill finishes suit him well but we can't see him beat Gilbert in a 7% sprint. Instead, the finish should be better suited to Simon Gerrans. The Australian is probably faster than Gilbert and is the rider with the best chance of beating the favourite in a sprint. At the same time, he is a good breakaway candidate and will be very hard to beat if he gets into the right move.

Had Gerrans been at the top of his game, he would have been one of our major favourites. However, he crashed earlier in the race and has since tried to recover. He claims to be feeling better but he hasn't shown much sign of life so far. We will only put him into an outsider role but if he is back to his best, he will be a danger man.

Fabian Cancellara has been climbing fabulously so far and has clearly lost a bit of weight as he prepares for the hilly world championships in Florence. At his current level, the Rat Penat should be manageable for him and so he will be in with a chance. He is fast in an uphill sprint as he proved when he finished 4th at the 2011 world championships and 2nd behind Daniel Moreno on stage 2 and so he may mix it up with the best in the uphill sprint. He could make it into the breakaway and if that happens, he will be very difficult to control in the finale.

His best chance may, however, come from an attack in the finale. Should everything be back together inside the final few kilometres, the domestique resources are likely to be limited. Cancellara could exploit the opportunity to slip away and then he will be very difficult to reel in.

Omega Pharma-Quick Step is likely to put faith in Gianni Meersman tomorrow but the Belgian is clearly not climbing as strongly as he did in last year's Vuelta or earlier this season. He was dropped on the Mirador del Ezaro on stage 4 and only managed to return when the pace went down. On the other hand, he survived the category 2 climb on stage 9 and so it will be very interesting to see whether he makes it up the climb with the best riders.

However, we can't imagine him beating Gilbert in this kind of finish and instead we will point to Zdenek Stybar. As it has been the case for most of our winner candidates, the Czech can win both from a breakaway and from a sprint. He was a little below his best at the start of the race as he hadn't recovered from the Eneco Tour but his stage win on stage 7 and good climbing on stage 9 prove that he is back to the same kind of form that allowed him to dominate the Eneco Tour.

If he has the same kind of climbing legs as he had in the Dutch/Belgian race, he will be a danger man in a breakaway. At the same time, he is very fast in an uphill sprint as he twice proved in the Eneco Tour and once proved in the 2012 Tour de Pologne. It would be a mistake to rule out Stybar if it comes to a final sprint.

Finally, we will point to our joker. Bauke Mollema entered the race with the GC on his mind but is now paying the price for a hard season. He now plans to use the race as worlds preparation while targeting stage wins along the way. He tried desperately to get into the break on stage 10 and will probably do so again tomorrow. He is a fabulous climber and a fast sprinter and so will be difficult to beat should he make it into the right breakaway.

CyclingQuotes' stage winner pick: Luis-Leon Sanchez

Other winner candidates: Philippe Gilbert, Edvald Boasson Hagen

Outsiders: Simon Gerrans, Fabian Cancellara, Zdenek Stybar

Joker: Bauke Molllema