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Starting at 15.00 CEST you can follow what should be a stage for the sprinters on CyclingQuotes.com/live

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DAILY VUELTA PREVIEWS

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NEWS
05.09.2013 @ 15:00 Posted by Emil Axelgaard

The  sprinters have bided their time in the Andalusian mountains but will get back into action tomorrow on a stage that could offer their only opportunity in the second week. Meanwhile, the GC riders look forward to an easy stage following what has been a demanding time trial and three tough days in the Andalusian mountains. Starting at 15.00 CEST you can follow the stage on CyclingQuotes.com/live.

 

The course

The sprinters haven't an opportunity for almost a week and have suffered up some very steep climbs to get to the 12th stage. Finally, they will get back into action as the Vuelta continues its eastern journey to reach the coast in Catalonia with a finish in Tarragona where Samuel Dumoulin won a sprint stage of the Volta a Catalunya 2 years ago and Abraham Olano won a Vuelta time trial in 2000.

 

The riders start in slightly rolling terrain which is followed by a long descent which takes them back to sea level. A few kilometres of flat roads lead to the bottom of the category 3 Alto del Collet (7,5km, 3,6%) which is followed by a long descent that brings them to the coast. From then, the rest of the course is almost completely flat and the sprinters will do their utmost not to miss out on one of only 3 remaining opportunities in the race.

 

Once again, the finale is rather technical. The riders reach the seafront with 3,7km to go and follow the coastline until the 1,5km to go mark. Here they will make a sweeping right-hand turn and a sweeping U-turn. Three sharp 90-degree turns follow - the last one at the flamme rouge - and from then on the roads are mostly straight and only interrupted by a sweeping right-hand turn in a roundabout 400m from the line. The penultimate kilometre is slightly uphill but it should do nothing to disturb the sprinters.

 

The weather

The Vuelta is usually dominated by sunshine. This year it has been no different and it won't be tomorrow either. The riders face another day with bright sunshine and can expect another hot ride. At the start in Maella, the temperatures will be close to 30 degrees before dropping by 5 degrees when they reach the coast for the stage finish.

 

At the start, there will be a moderate wind from a southwestern direction which means that the riders will mostly have a cross-headwind on their long run towards the coast. When they hit the seafront, the wind will have turned into a southern direction and this means that there will be a direct crosswind. This will make for a very nervous day in the saddle and we could very well see 30 very hectic kilometres at the end. In the finale, the riders will mostly have a cross-tailwind, turning more into a direct crosswind in the final kilometre.

 

The favourites

The sprinters have rarely been left more frustrated at a grand tour than they have been during the opening week of this year's Vuelta. Heading into the race, they knew that their opportunities were limited and that they had to make the most of their chances during the "easier" first week. Those hopes didn't come to fruition as the fast finishers still haven't contested a true, well-organized bunch sprint.

 

With Friday's finish being slightly uphill and the stage a hilly appetizer for three Pyrenean stages, tomorrow's stage may be the only opportunity for the sprinters in the second week. The third week only offers two potential sprint stages and with a number of sprinters having been left empty-handed, no one can allow themselves to let tomorrow's potential sprint slip away. Yesterday's rest day and today's time trial were easy for their domestiques and so they are all ready to get back to work tomorrow.

 

Having almost missed out on the sprint on stage 6, the sprint teams had clearly spoken together prior to stage 7. Early on, a coordinated chase was set up by Orica-GreenEDGE, Argos-Shimano, Lampre-Merida, Omega Pharma-Quick Step and Garmin-Sharp and those 5 teams combined forces to reel in the early break. That's likely to be repeated tomorrow and the early escapees will have little reason to believe in success.

 

The real challenge for the sprint teams will be the late attacks that may benefit from the technical finish. That's what created the surprise on stage 7 and that's what may disrupt the sprinters' plans again tomorrow. Until now, none of the sprint teams have been strong enough to control the finale and it has been a surprise to see that they have not only been unable to keep late breaks in check, they have also mostly been unable to offer their sprinters' any kind of support in the finale. Of course the most likely outcome is a sprint finish but it should be highly disorganized and no one can rule out a continuation of the recent trend of finisseurs surprising the fast finishers.

 

The finale will be extremely hectic but the wind should not be strong enough to split the field. However, the chaos may result in crashes and as it was seen on stage 3, they can be equally effective in opening up gaps between the overall contenders.

 

Should it come down to the expected bunch sprint, Tyler Farrar stands out as the favourite. The American was extremely unlucky when he punctured on stage 7 and so missed out on one of his few opportunities. He has twice participated in a sprint in this race and on both occasions, he has come very fast from behind, having been badly positioned at the start of the sprint.

 

On stage 6, he was actually well-placed but the long sprint launched by Fabian Cancellara caused the Argos train to lose their position and as a consequence, Farrar fell behind. He has all the capabilities to handle the positioning aspect and he has one of the strongest teams to support him. Alex Rasmussen will be there in the finale and the same may be the case for Michel Kreder who has suffered through the early part of the race following his team time trial crash but now appears to be getting better. Having already proved that he is the fastest man in the race and benefitting from a stronger lead-out, Farrar is the man to beat.

 

His biggest rival could be Argentinean Maximilano Richeze. Lampre didn't put too much emphasis on their sprinter at the start of the race but after two consecutive 2nd places, the team now believe that they have the best sprinter in the race. With Michele Scarponi fading out of GC contention, Richeze is now likely to receive increased support from his team and may go on to take that elusive stage win tomorrow.

 

He is not the fastest rider in the peloton but his positioning is second to none. His jump from the fading Argos train into the slipstream of a fast-moving Fabian Cancellara on stage 6 was impressive and with Massimo Graziato for support in the finales, he rarely misses out. He has been climbing surprisingly well in the early part of the race and as a former winner of the final Giro stage to Milan, he is able to recover throughout a three-week race. He won't be supported by a strong train in the finale but the wily Argentinean may take the win by virtue of his positioning ability.

 

So far the strongest sprint team has been Argos-Shimano and the squad has been able to take control in the final part of the three first sprint stages. Apart from stage 5, the breakaways have forced the team to burn their matches too early and they have run out of power, thus seeing sprinter Ramon Sinkeldam being overtaken by several other riders.

 

If the team can time everything right, their superior lead-out train may be enough for them to continue their grand tour run of success. Until now, the team has shared sprinting duties between their three fast men. In the uphill finish on stage 4, they put their faith in Reinhardt Janse Van Rensburg who punctured out of contention. The lumpy profile of stage 5 caused the team to back Nikias Arndt but the German was not fast enough to beat Michael Matthews. On stages 6 and 7, Ramon Sinkeldam got his chance but was left without a chance when he ran out of team support too early. Yesterday, coaches Rudi Kemna and Jorn Knoops confirmed that the team will back Sinkeldam in tomorrow's stage. The Dutchman is their fastest rider for a flat sprint like tomorrow's and has the speed to finish it off.

 

On paper, Orica-GreenEDGE has a very strong lead-out train but until now, Michael Matthews has been left to fend for himself in the finales. The hectic finishes have forced the team to use the lead-out riders Mitchell Docker and Leigh Howard earlier than planned and this has left the former U23 world champion on his own. He is currently in outstanding condition but needs a harder stage to really express his talents. In a flat finish like tomorrow's, there are faster guys than him and he needs his team to set him up well if he should stand a chance against the pure sprinters. On paper, the team has the firepower to do so and so Matthews is a genuine winner candidate. It cannot be entirely excluded that the team will out their faith in Howard who still hasn't got the chance to do his own sprint but with Matthews' recent run of success in mind, it is unlikely to happen.

 

Edvald Boasson Hagen is no pure sprinter and usually not fast enough to mix it up with the best in a bunch sprint. In a less competitive line-up, he may, however, have a chance, the Norwegian having proved so when he won a stage in the Dauphiné. In the first part of the race, he was struggling a bit due to his recent shoulder fracture but his ride on stage 9 indicated that he is getting into his best form. He manages the positioning aspect perfectly and with Sky's GC ambitions having been dealt a serious blow, he can expect an increased level of team support. Tomorrow may be the day for Boasson Hagen to get an important confidence boost prior to the world championships.

 

Like Boasson Hagen, Gianni Meersman is not fast enough to win a flat sprint at the end of a non-selective day. However, he has a strong team to support him and that may be crucial in a hectic finale. The loss of Andrew Fenn will be felt but Guillaume Van Keirsbulck, Zdenek Stybar and Tony Martin are all valuable assets when it comes to positioning. Meersman has to do everything right to win tomorrow's sprint but as the first sprint stages have proved, the fastest rider is not always going to win in this year's Vuelta.

 

For our joker pick, we will stick with our usual choice. We were very surprised that Francesco Lasca was unable to perform after having shown splendid condition on the steep Mirador del Ezaro on stage 4. The reason was, however, a bad cold that prevented him from expressing his talents. The young Italian is extremely fast but has to fend for himself in the finales. In a race where no team is able to dominate the sprints, he may overcome his lack of team support to win a stage - provided he has recovered from his health issues.

 

CyclingQuotes' stage winner pick: Tyler Farrar

Other winner candidates: Maximiliano Richeze, Ramon Sinkeldam

Outsiders: Michael Matthews, Edvald Boasson Hagen, Gianni Meersman

Joker: Francesco Lasca

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