Daniel Moreno stamped his authority on the Vuelta with his win on the steep ramp in Valdepeñas de Jaen but he could now have imagined a tougher stage for his first jersey defence than what is on offer tomorrow. Until now, the differences between the race favourites have been a matter of seconds but that could change on the brutally steep Alto de Hazallanas. An 8km section where the gradient barely drops below the 10% gradient promises to open up massive time gaps and will give the first clear indication of who may go on to win this year's Vuelta. Starting at 15.00 CEST you can follow the drama on CyclingQuotes.com/live.

The course

By now, the riders are looking forward to their first rest day but first they will have to overcome the first real mountain stage of the race and what may be described as a cruel finishing climb. It all starts out gently in Torredelcampo as the riders travel in an eastern direction along only slightly ascending roads. From there, they will head south as they take on a long, non-categorized climb and some smaller hills which lead to a long gradual decent. Then the roads ascend slightly for few kilometres until they get to the 36,3km to go mark.

The remaining distance may be seem bearable but the terrain certainly isn't. First up is the category 1 Alto de Monachil (8,5km, 7,7%, max. 15%) which takes the riders up to 1465m above sea level. This is a really difficult climb as the first 5km have an almost constant 10% gradient. An easier section gives some time to recover until a new steep 11-12% ramp leads to a small descent. The final kilometre has a 8-9% gradient.

At the top, the riders will take on a technical descent which leads directly to the bottom of the category HC Alto de Hazallanas (15,8km, 5%, max. 18%). The average gradient seems to be manageable but don't be fooled by the deceptive numbers. The first 6km are uphill at a 4-6% gradient while the next two kilometres are almost flat. The 8th kilometre is even downhill. From there hell breaks loose as the gradient varies between 10% and 18% during the next 5km. The final 2,8km are easier at around 7%  but still have a 18% ramp 2km from the finish. The final few hundred metres are even slightly downhill but by that time, the peloton will have exploded to pieces on what will be one of the hardest finishing climbs ever used in a grand tour. Just after the flamme rouge, there are a couple of bends which are followed by a sharp 180-degree turn 550m from the line. From there, the roads are mostly straight and slightly descending to the finish.

The weather

Some riders will be happy that tomorrow's stage is the final on Andalusian soil as the peloton face up to another hot day in the saddle. There will be bright sunshine all day and at the start in Torredelcampo, 28-degree temperatures are expected. Later on, the riders climb into the mountains which make for slightly cooler conditions and at the bottom of the final climb, the thermometer will show a pleasant 20 degrees.

Like today, there will be almost no wind and only an almost unnoticeable breeze from an eastern direction will blow across Andalusia. This means that the riders will have a headwind in the first part of the stage, followed by a crosswind section before turning into a headwind and another crosswind. The peloton will mostly have a headwind in the final part and all the way up the Alto de Monachil. On the Hazallanas, they will face a headwind on the lower slopes before turning into a crosswinds and they will enjoy a tailwind during the final 2,5km. It will, however, have no impact on this brutally steep climb.

The favourites

Tomorrow will be judgement day for the race favourites. Until now, we have clearly seen who isn't going to win this year's Vuelta but the small time gaps among the major contenders have done little to reveal who has what it takes to wear red in Madrid. That will all change tomorrow as the Hazallanas will open some massive time gaps and the number of potential winners will have been significantly reduced at day's end.

We are guaranteed a big spectacle among the GC riders but the stage win may not be up for grabs. If the early break is sizeable, doesn't contain any riders that are close on GC and has a number of strong climbers, they may go on to contest the win. Nonetheless, the most likely scenario is that the stage winner will be one of the race favourites. Until now, a firm hierarchy hasn't been established and this means that many riders fancy their chances of not only winning the stage but also the race overall. This could cause a number of teams to initiate the chase if they miss out on the break as it was evidenced when NetApp went to the front two days ago. The first part of the stage is rather easy and so it is almost cost free to use some of the heavier guys on the flat, early section. Finally, a rest day, a time trial and two easier stages are coming up and so the main favourites can allow themselves to us their domestique resources without having to worry too much about the near future. We expect the early break to be caught but won't rule out a breakaway win.

On the final climb, there won't be much tactics. The slopes are so steep that it will be every man for himself when it comes to the crucial point of the stage. Riders will be spread across the road in small groups and it will be entirely up to the legs to do the talking. There's no reason to analyse much on the tactical aspect: tomorrow we are going to see who are the strongest riders right now.

The first week may not have revealed who's going to win the Vuelta but it has given an indication of the condition of the major race favourites. Most of the expected contenders have shown some kind of weakness and given indications that they are not as strong as expected. Prior to the race, most talk was focused on Vincenzo Nibali, Joaquim Rodriguez and Alejandro Valverde and among those three grand tour stars, only the latter has given the impression of being on the top of his game. Potentially, he could have won three stages at this point but his team has not been strong enough to keep things together for a sprint. Valverde has, however, finished first among the race favourites on every occasion and has appeared to have something in reserve.

Today's performance was another indication that Valverde is going strong. He hesitated a bit when Moreno attacked but did a fabulous job to keep the Katusha rider under control in a finale that suited his rival much better. For him to match Moreno who is apparently in the form of his life, on such a steep ramp shows that he's here to win the race. Having finished 2nd on the Angliru and 2nd from the peloton on Bola del Mundo in the past, he is well-suited to tomorrow's long, steep climb and if he hasn't been dropped on the steepest section, he will be unbeatable in the downhill sprint. Valverde has missed out on some of his most evident winning chances but the stage win may finally come tomorrow.

Daniel Moreno has surprised the entire cycling world with his excellent performances in the opening week. Originally, he was expected to play a domestique role but now he finds himself in a position where he may actually contest the overall win. Rodriguez may still be the captain but it is no certainty that Moreno will be asked to wait for his leader, should the team's biggest star get into difficulty.

No one can deny that Moreno is in the form of his life - despite what has mostly been a disappointing season so far - but the real test will come tomorrow. Until now, the stages have been perfectly suited to his characteristics but the terrain will be more difficult tomorrow. Moreno is perfectly suited to steep, explosive ramps but struggle a bit more on longer climbs. Tomorrow he faces a long, steep section and that will be a fiercer challenge for a rider with his characteristics. When asked about his lieutenant role, he told that he was happy to work for Rodriguez because he was unable to suffer like his team captain. That's what he will have to do on tomorrow's long climb and thus it offers a unique test of his ability to win the race overall. On the other hand, he finished 4th from the peloton on Bola del Mundo last year and so has proved his ability to handle this kind of finishes in the past. At his current level, he could very well take his third stage win tomorrow.

Until now, Ivan Basso has found himself in terrain completely unsuited to his characteristics. The long climbs haven't been steep and the steep climbs haven't been long. Hence, the time differences have mostly been made by short, explosive accelerations and so it is no wonder that Basso has lost a couple of seconds to the likes of Moreno, Valverde and Rodriguez.

Nonetheless, Basso has been impressive in the first part of the race. To finish 4th in the uphill sprint of the race favourites on stage 2 and do another good sprint one day later are exceptional results for the veteran Italian. When he found terrain that suited him a bit better on stage 8, he made repeated attacks and did all the work that made the chase group with Nicolas Roche and Daniel Moreno stay away. The results are just a confirmation of the indications he already gave in the build-up to the race when he performed well in the Vuelta a Burgos and the Tour de Pologne despite his history of not shining in his warm-up races.

Basso's characteristics mean that he very rarely wins a race but tomorrow's stage may be give him an opportunity to buck the trend. His diesel engine is perfectly suited to a long, steep climb where it all comes down to the legs. It is no coincidence that his 2010 Giro win was taken by virtue of a crushing dominance on the Monte Zoncolan. The Hazallanas is not too different from the Italian mountain and tomorrow he doesn't have to worry too much about tactics and accelerations. He can allow himself to just ride at his own pace and it would not be a big surprise if no one is able to keep up with the veteran.

It has been difficult to gauge Joaquim Rodriguez' form in the early part of the race. In every sprint, he has finished 2nd behind Valverde and he hasn't lost any time to his former team captain. Today gave the first indications that the Katusha captain is not as strong as he would have wanted. Apparently, Katusha had a 1-2-plan to launch Moreno up the road early on the ramp and let Rodriguez make his move a little later. However, the team leader had to dig really deep to just stay in Valverde's wheel and he didn't have the power to come around the Movistar captain in the final metres.

Had Rodriguez been at his best, that would have been unheard of and the Katusha captain may now be paying the price for a long season. Tomorrow's steep climb suits him perfectly and based on previous performances, he should be the favourite to win. He is such a classy climber that he may actually do so but the stage will give us a much clearer indication of whether there is more to his signs of weakness.

If Rodriguez has made a below-par performance, the same cannot be said of Domenico Pozzovivo. The tiny Italian appears to be on the top of his game and tomorrow the race enters his terrain. He took a crushing victory on the steep Punto Velena climb in last year's Giro del Trentino and the Hazallanas is not too different from that Italian mountain.

On stage 2 he attacked on a climb that didn't suit him at all and managed to keep the peloton at bay despite being left behind by explosive riders Nicolas Roche and Moreno. Today he delivered a fantastic performance in Valdepeñas de Jaen. He was one of the riders who was dropped on the final descent but still managed to finish 20th. Among the riders who had lost contact prior to the climb, only Michele Scarponi was faster than Pozzovivo and the Lampre captain is much more suited to this kind of finish than the Ag2r rider. This is just another testament to his current condition. Expect Pozzovivo to shine in tomorrow's finish.

Prior to the race, Vincenzo Nibali openly admitted that he wasn't as strong as he was in the Giro. The first week has proved that he was certainly not bluffing. The finales may not have been perfectly suited to the Astana captain but it would have been unthinkable for him to lose the amount of time, he has already done, if he had been at his best.

Today's performance was a clear improvement compared to Saturday's below-par showing and there is little doubt that Nibali is on the rise. Tomorrow's stage is probably a little bit too early for him to strike and it may mostly be a case of limiting the losses. Nonetheless, he is such a classy bike rider that a Nibali win cannot be excluded.

Finally, we will point to our joker. Igor Anton has struggled for the past couple of seasons and nothing suggested that he had improved for the Vuelta when he was dropped early on stage 2. He suddenly bounced back with a gutsy ride on Saturday and he performed well on today's stage as well. Tomorrow's steep climb suits him down to the ground and as a former winner on the Monte Zoncolan, he knows how to handle this kind of finishes. He may not be able to match the race favourites but could try to anticipate their accelerations. At his current level, he could be the man to save Euskaltel's Vuelta with a beautiful stage win on one of the most feared climbs.

CyclingQuotes' stage winner pick: Alejandro Valverde

Other winner candidates: Daniel Moreno, Ivan Basso

Outsiders: Joaquim Rodriguez, Domenico Pozzovivo, Vincenzo Nibali

Joker: Igor Anton