The Tour Down Under has traditionally kicked off with a bunch sprint but that is unlikely to be the case for the 2014 edition. As a testament to the new much tougher course, the riders will be challenged by the steep Mengler's Hill near the end of an otherwise mostly flat opening stage. The fast finishers hope that the climbers will take it easy up the slopes but with many riders being eager to test their legs, most of them are likely to see their dreams of stage victory getting crushed as the road gets steeper.

The course

The race has traditionally kicked off with a stage for the sprinters (usually won by Andre Greipel) but the fast finishers will have a much harder time getting the chance to show their sprinting prowess on the opening day of the 2014 edition. The 135,0km stage from Nuriootpa to Angaston opens with two laps on a 45,5km circuit that is mostly flat but contains a few rolling hills near the finish. The riders will take on the circuit for a third time and complete most of it but when they approach the finish in Angaston, they will deviate from their usual route. Instead of taking the "easy" way to the finish, the riders will head up the only categorized climb of the stage, the Mengler's Hill, which has featured in the race several times in the past.

This time the 2,7km ascent with its average gradient of 8,1% will be located much closer to the finish, with the top coming just 11,7km from the final passage of the line. From the KOM sprint, the riders face a few flat kilometres before taking on the high-speed descent to the finish in Angaston. The final 2km are slightly uphill, with a gradient of 1,5-2% and the final kilometre is completely non-technical, with only a slight left-hand bend coming 365m from the finish.

Angaston has hosted stage finishes in 2006, 2008, 2009 and 2011 and since the race's inclusion in the WorldTour, all stages have been decided in bunch sprints, with Mark Renshaw, Allan Davis and Matthew Goss all taking wins. With its steep gradient, Mengler's Hill is, however, likely to be too great a challenge for all but the strongest climbers among the sprinters and the stage could very well come down to a sprint from a reduced group.

The weather

Last week Adelaide registered the highest temperatures in the world in what has been a sweltering hot Australian summer but the riders have been happy to learn that the extreme heat has disappeared in time for the Tour Down Under to start. However, there is still a legacy from the hot conditions as the stage was threatened with cancellation due to bushfires. Luckily, the organizers have been given the green light to proceed as planned.

The riders will be greeted by unusually cold conditions for the first day of racing. A cloudy day is expected and the temperatures will stay below the 25-degree mark for the entire stage. Luckily, there will be no rain and it should be a rather pleasant day for bike racing.

There will be a moderate wind from a south eastern direction and the riders will travel in all different directions on the circuit. This means that there will be a number of crosswind sections where things could split up a bit in the windy conditions. The riders will have a cross-headwind on Mengler's Hill which could make it slightly less selective and will have a tailwind when they speed down the descent to the finish. There will be a headwind in the final 2,4km which means that timing will be crucial in the slightly uphill sprint.

The favourites

The late inclusion of the Mengler's Hill will make the opening day of the Tour Down Under much more unpredictable than the traditional bunch sprint that usually kicks off the race. Both sprinters and GC riders are a little bit in doubt about what to expect from the ascent and how many of the fast finishers that will survive the slopes.

A breakaway is likely to be formed in the early part of the race but with several teams going for GC, it is highly unlikely that it will have any kind of success. However, it will be interesting to see which teams take responsibility for the chase. Marcel Kittel has already ruled out a win on this course and so Giant-Shimano will do nothing to bring things back together. Andre Greipel may fancy his chances but is unlikely to ask his Lotto Belisol team to do a hard chase, only to see their captain getting dropped on Mengler's Hill.

With the stage having no obvious favourite, it is likely to be left to the GC teams to close the early move down. The majority of the workload will fall onto the shoulders of Orica-GreenEDGE whose role as the big home team will put them into the spotlight. They may get a bit of help from BMC and Sky but unless the team manages to put a rider into the breakaway, they can expect to use a fair bit of energy in the chase work.

Nonetheless, things are likely to be back together by the time they reach the Mengler's Hill. 2,7km with an average gradient of 8,1% are rather tough and should be enough to remove most of the sprinters, especially at this early time of the season. The top of the climb is likely to be located too far from the finish for the ascent to having any lasting effect on the GC but with many riders being uncertain about their condition, we could see a number of riders give it a go on the climb. It will, however, be a tough ask to keep an advantage on the run-in to the finish.

A number of teams may be keen to ride tempo up the climb to get rid of the pure sprinters. Very often this has been the Movistar tactics and the depleted Spanish team which lost Giovanni Visconti in Sunday's People's Choice Classic, have often raced hard in the Tour Down Under. With their sprinter Jose Joaquin Rojas being keen to capitalize on his good climbing legs and GC leader Javier Moreno being eager to have a hard race, the team could ride tempo from the bottom to reduce the size of the field. Orica-GreenEDGE may be keen to do the same and we could also see teams like Trek and Astana try a similar tactic.

It is unthinkable that Kittel will survive the climb which should also be a bit too tough for riders like Greipel, Elia Viviani, Steele Von Hoff, Mark Renshaw and Roberto Ferrari. This opens the door for some of the fast riders that are usually not able to challenge the real sprinters in a true bunch sprint.

Orica-GreenEDGE seems to be the team to beat as the home team has a number of potential winners in their ranks. Simon Gerrans, Michael Matthews, Matthew Goss and Daryl Impey are all capable of winning on this type of course and it could be a difficult task to find out who to ride for.

Impey is likely to play his usual role as a lead-out man and Goss' form doesn't appear to be good enough to survive this kind of climbing at the moment. Gerrans and Matthews would both be the red-hot favourite to win a reduced bunch sprint and both climbed well at the recent national championships.

With Gerrans being the favourite for the overall win and being in need for bonus seconds, it would be natural for the team to back the newly crowned national champion in a slightly uphill finish that is tailor-made for his characteristics. In the Volta a Catalunya, Vuelta al Pais Vasco and Tour de France, he proved that he is capable of winning small bunch sprints and this should be enough for the team to have confidence in him. With Matthews and Impey being on hand for the lead-out, he will be very difficult to beat in this stage and he could open his Tour Down Under campaign with a bang in Angaston.

If Matthews is still present after Mengler's Hill, the team could decide to back the double Vuelta stage winner. He proved in the Tour of Utah that he climbs really well when he even dropped Francisco Mancebo on a category 1 climb. He had some back pain leading up to the national championships but showed good condition in the battle for the green and gold jersey. With bonus seconds on offer, the team is likely to put their faith in Gerrans but the management could also decide that there is a need for a confidence boost right from the beginning. This could switch the attention to Matthews who will be keen to start his new season in the same way as he ended 2013.

Movistar is in Australia mostly with an eye on GC but as usual they have also lined up their sprinter Jose Joaquin Rojas. The Spaniard has a good track record in the race and has twice finished on the overall podium. With the tougher course, those days are now over but he is still keen to continue his tradition of starting his season strongly. He could not have wished a better stage to start the race as the climb should be manageable for him but not for his faster rivals. He showed good condition by finishing 5th on Sunday and on paper he should be faster than Gerrans. However, he does not have the same kind of lead-out and he very rarely wins a race. If the race ends up being a hard one, however, he will have a good chance of taking his first win since 2012.

Trek got their first season off to the best possible start when Hayden Roulston triumphed in the New Zealand national championships but had less luck yesterday when marquee sprinter Danny Van Poppel crashed out of the People's Choice Classic. The team will be eager to show their new colours on the WorldTour scene right from the beginning and with Fabio Felline, they have a good card to play on stage one. The Italian is no pure sprinter but if he is on form, he should be able to handle Mengler's Hill. With most of the faster riders likely to be left behind, he should be in with a chance in the uphill sprint after having finished 2nd behind Enrico Battaglin in a much harder finish in the 2013 Giro d'Italia.

Astana is in Australia to go for stage wins and they have a rider who have made bunch sprints at the end of selective days his specialty. Francesco Gavazzi has plenty of top 10 places but rarely wins a race. However, it is no coincidence that he has enjoyed his greatest success in the Vuelta al Pais Vasco which often offers sprints in reduced groups at the end of some hard terrain. He is not as fast as riders like Gerrans, Matthews and Rojas but if he times his kick perfectly in the headwind sprint, things could go his way.

If the climb is less selective than expected, the sprinters could come into play. In last year's Dauphiné and Giro, Elia Viviani proved that he can handle even some rather tough climbing and with his focus on the track, his condition could be at a rather advanced level. He often gets swamped in the big bunch sprints and could only manage 9th on Sunday but in a reduced group, he will have an easier time finding his way to the line. In a direct battle, only Kittel and Greipel should be faster than Viviani and he will do his utmost to get a chance to do a sprint without the presence of his two German rivals.

Finally, we will mention a two jokers. Usually, Greipel doesn't fall into this category but on paper, Mengler's Hill should be too much for him. As the king of the sprints Down Under, however, he has often proved his ability to train himself into good condition and he is generally underestimated for his ability to climb. Lotto Belisol will make sure to position him near the front at the bottom of the climb and then he will try to stay in contact as they head up the slopes. Prior to the race, the team mentioned the possibility of taking three stage wins and with only two real bunch sprints predicted, this shows that they haven't completely ruled out their sprinter on the first say.

Finally, Caleb Ewan deserves a mention. The 19-year-old impressed massively in his first race at WorldTour level when he was only beaten by Kittel and Greipel yesterday. By finishing 4th at the U23 world championships on the hard course in Florence, the tiny sprinter proved that he even climbs really well. Whether this will be enough to keep up with the WorldTour elite on Mengler's Hill remains to be seen but if he survives the climb, he could very well be the fastest rider left in the bunch.

CyclingQuotes' stage winner pick: Simon Gerrans

Other winner candidates: Michael Matthews, Jose Joaquin Rojas

Outsiders: Fabio Felline, Francesco Gavazzi, Elia Viviani

Jokers: Andre Greipel, Caleb Ewan