The days when the opening months of the cycling season can be used to ease into the races, are long gone and nowadays the first WorldTour points are on offer right from the beginning. For most riders, the Tour Down Under is the first competitive action of the year but it presents a great opportunity to open the points account already from the take-off. This turns the race into a hotly contested affair and with the days when the race was a sprinters' affair now belonging to the past, the overall classification shapes up to be decided in an exciting battle between puncheurs, climbers and classics specialists.

                                                                              

2014 has barely begun but the times when January is a month for training and preparation at team training camps are now history. Nowadays, the best professional cyclists start racing earlier than they did in the past when they use the globalization of the sport to get some early-season racing kilometres under their belt under distant and warmer skies.

 

This development has prompted the creation of the new opening week of the professional cycling season which takes place more than a month before the traditional Belgian opening weekend and a month and a half before the first major European race, the Paris-Nice. Although the Tour Down Under and the Tour de San Luis are held on separate continents, they have combined forces to kick off the racing season by splitting the professional peloton into two halves, with most of the sprinters and classics specialists heading to Australia and the stage racers travelling to Argentina.

 

Following on the heels of the Tropicale Amissa Bongo in Gabon and the national championships in New Zealand and Australia, the two races signal the real kick off of the season for most of the WorldTour teams. It is a testament to the globalized cycling that the major stars now travel all over the world to Africa, Oceania and South America to start their season in sunny conditions.

 

It may be early in the year but there is no time to gradually find the racing legs. Nowadays, teams are involved in a fierce battle for UCI points - which will be no less fierce due to the uncertainty that follows from the restructuring of the international calendar that is set to be introduced next year - and as a WorldTour event, the Tour Down Under has a big amount on offer. Some riders may be travelling to Australia mostly for training but all teams will take the race very seriously and have made sure that they have a few riders that are able to fight for the wins in both the overall or on select stages.

 

With cycling's major stars now going head-to-head in the event, the race has come a long way since its beginning in 1999. Originally created to promote South Australia as a tourist destination, the inaugural edition had attracted a few European teams but the first races were mostly dominated by Australians. Local hero Stuart O'Grady was the first rider to win the event, with O'Grady again, Michael Rogers and Patrick Jonker making sure that the race had home-grown winners four times during the first six years.

 

However, the race gradually became more and more international and it became increasingly difficult for the local riders to make their mark on the race. When the ProTour was introduced in 2005, race director Mike Turtur started a dedicated lobbying work to make the race become the first non-European event to be added to the finest calendar. With the UCI being keen to internationalize their finest race series, the race passed several historic European races to be added to the ProTour in 2008.

 

Although it guaranteed the presence of all ProTour teams and gave the starting field a major boost of international stars, the new status also posed a new difficulty. Until now, the Willunga Hill with its subsequent finish in the city of Willunga and the general rolling terrain had been enough to split the field and create some unpredictable races - very often a surprise breakaway distanced the peloton significantly in one of the opening stages - the race was now too easy to control for cycling's major powerhouses. The race turned into a rather predictable sprinter affair, with Andre Greipel and Allan Davis winning the 2008 and 2009 editions of the event.

 

To test the world stars a bit more, the organizers decided to add an extra passage of Willunga Hill to the queen stage of the race. That gave way to a very exciting race, featuring climbing stars like newly crowned world champion Cadel Evans, Alejandro Valverde, Luis Leon Sanchez and neo-professional Peter Sagan but it was not enough to prevent Greipel from winning the race for a second time courtesy of bonus seconds. The next edition was the first to be won be a non-sprinter but Cameron Meyer's surprise victory was more a result of the peloton's underestimation of a breakaway featuring Meyer, Thomas De Gendt and Laurens Ten Dam than it was a testament to the toughness of the course.

 

For the 2012 edition, the organizers realized that something had to be done to turn the race away from its many sprint finishes. For the first time ever, the race featured a summit finish on the Willunga Hill and this tipped the balance into the hands of the puncheurs. Simon Gerrans took the win after a thrilling battle with Alejandro Valverde while the sprinters now had to be content with the fight for stage wins. In 2013, the race was made even tougher with the inclusion of a stage that passed the steep Corkscrew climb close to the finish, making for a balanced race with three traditional sprint stages and two stages for the climbers and the uphill sprint into Stirling.

 

That evolution has changed the dynamics of the race. While in the past there was little reason to field anything else than a dedicated sprint team, the field now boasts a solid mix of puncheurs and sprinters. Although the race is still not one for the pure climbers and grand tour specialists, the field is now much more diverse than it has been in the past and most teams make sure to have a solid pair of climbing legs on their roster.

 

With the Tour de San Luis offering an alternative way to prepare the new season, the two races are involved in a constant battle to attract the strongest fields. As the Argentinean race offers some kind of a mini grand tour with a time trial and real mountain stages, the pair have shared the stars between them, with most stage racers heading to Argentina and most sprinters and classics riders travelling to Australia. The only real stage race specialists to be present in Australia are local stars like Cadel Evans and Richie Porte, Dutchman Robert Gesink and returning Frank Schleck but with riders like Marcel Kittel, Andre Greipel and Matthew Goss on the start line, the Tour Down Under can boast a formidable line-up of fast finishers.

 

Due to its lower status, the Tour de San Luis does, however, offer less stress and media coverage and this has prompted some sprinters like Mark Cavendish and Peter Sagan to stay away from the Australian race that has the focus from the entire cycling world in the month of January. On the other hand, the greater prestige means that the Tour Down Under is a hotly contested international affair while the overall classification in San Luis is often dominated by local riders.

 

Last year Tom-Jelte Slagter experienced a long-awaited breakthrough when he won the overall race. Geraint Thomas used the Corkscrew climb to take over the leader's jersey and was in pole position to give Sky the perfect start to the season but Slagter had different plans. The Dutchman won the uphill sprint into Stirling one day later and although he was beaten by defending champion Simon Gerrans - who had been taken out of overall contention due to an asthma attack - on Willunga Hill on the penultimate day, he was able to distance Thomas sufficiently to take the overall win ahead of Javier Moreno and the Brit. Due to the birth of his first child, Slagter will not be back to defend his title but Moreno and Thomas will both be present as they try to take the win that narrowly eluded them 12 months ago.

 

The course

Since joining the ProTour in 2008, the Tour Down Under has gradually turned away from being a sprinters affair to become a much more diverse race. In 2013, the race had its hardest course yet, with only half of the stages being dedicated to the fast finishers, and the organizers were so pleased with the lay-out of the most recent edition that they have followed a similar pattern in the design of the 2013 course. However, the race has again been made slightly more hilly and now only two stages appear to be guaranteed bunch sprints. An uphill finish on Willunga Hill, an uphill sprint in Stirling, a difficult stage with the Corkscrew climb located close to the finish and an unpredictable opening stage will make for the most diverse edition of the race yet.

 

The organizers are aware that their race is an early-season affair and is held far away from Europe and this plays a huge role in the design of the course. While the logistical problems of transporting time trial equipment all the way to Australia means that the race has never included a race against the clock, the early time of the year means that the race cannot be too hard. Hence, there are no major climbs in the race and the stages all have rather short distances. At the same time, the race offers perfect conditions for the riders who are able to stay at the same hotel in Adelaide during the race, with all stages taking place close to the major city of the region.

 

The riders have already had a chance to test their legs in the traditional warm-up criterium, People's Choice Classic. Originally, the race on the fast circuit in Adelaide was a part of the race but since 2006, the race has been held as a non-UCI race with the same field as the Tour Down Under. This offers the riders the chance to get their legs up to racing speed before things kick off in earnest and allows the public an opportunity to get a presentation of the field.

 

Stage 1

The race has traditionally kicked off with a stage for the sprinters (usually won by Andre Greipel) but the fast finishers will have a much harder time getting the chance to show their sprinting prowess on the opening day of the 2014 edition. The 135,0km stage from Nuriootpa to Angaston opens with two laps on a 45,5km circuit that is mostly flat but contains a few rolling hills near the finish. The riders will take on the circuit for a third time and complete most of it but when they approach the finish in Angaston, they will deviate from their usual route. Instead of taking the "easy" way to the finish, the riders will head up the only categorized climb of the stage, the Mengler's Hill, which has featured in the race several times in the past. This time the 2,7km ascent with its average gradient of 8,1% will be located much closer to the finish, with the top coming just 11,7km from the final passage of the line. From the KOM sprint, the riders face a few flat kilometres before taking on the high-speed descent to the finish in Angaston. The final 2km are slightly uphill, with a gradient of 1,5-2% and the final kilometre is completely non-technical, with only a slight left-hand bend coming 365m from the finish.

 

Angaston has hosted stage finishes in 2006, 2008, 2009 and 2011 and since the race's inclusion in the WorldTour, all stages have been decided in bunch sprints, with Mark Renshaw, Allan Davis and Matthew Goss all taking wins. With its steep gradient, Mengler's Hill is, however, likely to be too great a challenge for all but the strongest climbers among the sprinters and the stage could very well come down to a sprint from a reduced group.

 

 

Stage 2

The pure sprinters will again have to bide their time on the second stage which is a real Tour Down Under classic. The uphill sprint in Stirling has become a tradition of the Australian race, with the finish featuring in all editions since its debut in 2009. While the stage usually doesn't decide the GC, it is a tricky one where potential winners can target bonus seconds and where you can easily lose a few seconds in the hectic finale.

 

The 150,0km stage starts in Prospect just north of Adelaide and follows a mostly flat road in a northern direction until a long uncategorized climb leads to the intermediate sprint in One Tree Hill. From there, the riders head through rolling terrain for the next 75km as they start a southern journey that takes them to the finishing city of Stirling. Along the way, they will tackle the short, steep category 2 climbs Golden Grove (1km, 9,9%) and Checker Hill (0,6km, 13,3%) but as they are located already at the 34,8km and 56,3km marks respectively, they will have no influence on the final outcome.

 

With around 50km to go, the riders reach the famed 21,3km circuit around Stirling which consists of the long uphill drag to the finish and a second, undulating, mostly downhill section. The finishing straight is non-technical with only a few sweeping bends inside the final kilometre. In the past, the stage has been made tougher by adding more and more laps around the circuit, culminating last year when the riders did 5 full laps. After heading up the uphill finishing straight for the first time, the riders will only have to do two full laps in this year's edition, making for an easier version of the stage. The stage usually comes down to a battle between the hardest sprinters and the puncheurs but the slightly lighter edition of the stage could favour the faster guys.

 

In 2009 Allan Davis beat Graeme Brown in the uphill sprint while Manuel Cardoso held off Alejandro Valverde and Cadel Evans with a long sprint in 2010. In 2011, Michael Matthews proved that he is perfectly suited to this finish when he triumphed ahead of Andre Greipel and Matthews Goss and one year later he again won the sprint - albeit only for second as William Clarke held off the field in a long solo move. Last year Tom-Jelte Slagter laid the foundations for his overall win by holding off Goss and Philippe Gilbert.

 

 

Stage 3

While the puncheurs had the upper hand on stage 2, the climbers will come to the fore on stage 3 which is likely to offer a proper indication of who is going to win this year's Tour Down Under. Last year the organizers introduced the brutal category 1 climb up Corkscrew Road, with the ascent playing host to a dramatic battle where Geraint Thomas rode away from everyone else to win the stage. Organizers and fans were excited by the spectacle and so it will be a welcome return that the 2,4km climb with its average gradient of 9,0% features in the finale of the third stage of this year's race.

 

The 145,0km stage starts in Norwood on the eastern outskirts of Adelaide and gets off to a tough start as the first 10km are all uphill up a non-categorized climb. From there, things get significantly easier as the next 125km only have a number of rolling hills but are mostly flat. The excitement is saved for the final 9,8km that consist of the 2,4km Corckscrew Road climb and a fast downhill that leads directly to the finish in Campbelltown.

 

The climb starts with a 7,8% section and then hits its steepest part where the gradient doesn't drop below the 10% mark and which features gradients of up to 12,4%. The next part is also mostly above 10%, with the final 500m being easier at just 7,3%. Compared to last year, the finish has been moved from the Adelaide suburb of Rostrevor to the nearby Campbelltown and the distance from the top has been made slightly longer from 6km to 7,4km. The downhill run will, however, be largely the same and the descent will continue all the way to the finish which is located at the end of a long straight road, with a roundabout coming 1,2km from the line. The slightly longer distance will make it easier for a regrouping to take place but in any case, we will get a serious idea of who is the strongest rider in the race.

 

 

Stage 4

For the pure sprinters, the first part of the 2014 Tour Down Under will be a long wait but on the fourth day, they will finally get their chance to shine. The 149,5km stage from Unley to Victor Harbor has all the characteristics of a classical sprint stage and it is hard to imagine that the fast finishers will miss the opportunity. However, the start from the Adelaide suburb of Unley is a hard one as the first 10km consist of a tough uncategorized climb but from there, the roads are mostly flat with only some rolling hills disrupting the monotony as the riders head south towards the coastal city of Victor Harbor. The only categorized climb is the category 2 Myponga (2,2km, 4,5%) but as it comes 52,8km from the finish, it will have no major impact on the outcome.

 

After reaching the coast with 45km to go, the riders cross the peninsula on largely flat roads before reaching the finish in Victor Harbor. The riders tackle a small climb inside the final 5km but it will be no major difficulty and its descent leads to the final 2,5km which are almost entirely flat. However, the final sprint is a bit technical, with the riders passing a roundabout at the flamme rouge and a 90-degree right-hand and left-hand turn coming 690 and 650m from the finish respectively. From there the road bends slightly to the right as the riders power to the finish on the coastal road.

 

The only thing that can really prevent a bunch sprint is the wind in the sea region but there has often been talk about the wind in the stage to Victor Harbor and it rarely has had any impact on the race. In the first editions of the race, the city hosted a stage finish almost every year but since 2010, the finish has only been used in 2012. Since the race's inclusion on the WorldTour, Allan Davis, Graeme Brown and Andre Greipel have all won the sprint in Victor Harbor.

 

 

Stage 5

As usual, Saturday is the day of the queen stage, with the general classification battle coming down to the famed Willunga Hill. While the climb has featured on the route every year since 2002, the organizers decided to add an extra passage of its steep slopes in 2010, and in 2012 the stage finish was even moved to the top of the climb. This will again be the case for this year's queen stage which is completely identical to the one that decided the past two editions of the race.

 

The 151,5km stage starts in McLaren Vale and from there, the riders start a 39,7km lap that brings them to the coast and back to the starting city. The circuit will be tackled three times and the riders will even start a fourth lap. Passing through the city of Willunga, the peloton will, however, turn left and head up the famed climb for the first time. After the KOM sprint, they stay at a plateau for around 10km before tackling the fast descent back onto the original circuit. From there, they head back to Willunga to start the second and final ascent of the climb, with the final circuit having a length of 22,4km.

 

The category 1 climb is 3,0km long and has an average gradient of 7,5%. It is hardest at the bottom, with the gradient staying between 7,9% and 9,1% for the first 1,3km. From then, the gradient drops a bit and in the final 1,2km, it stays between 5,5% and 6,6%. The favourites usually keep their powder dry for the final sprint up the climb but the final 30km have often been very aggressive, with several attacks being launched during the first passage. However, the teams of the favourites have managed to bring things back together for a final sprint on both previous occasions, with Alejandro Valverde narrowly edging out Simon Gerrans in 2012 and the Australian getting his revenge by beating Tom-Jelte Slagter one year later. The uphill sprint suits the true puncheurs and Ardennes specialists more than the climbers but the gaps will not be very big.

 

Last year 29 riders finished within a minute of the winner and this means that bonus seconds on both this and the previous stages can come into play. There is, however, no doubt that the Willunga stage will the single most decisive of the entire race and you won't win the Tour Down Under if you don't end up near the front on this stage.

 

 

Stage 6

The end of the race has always been inspired by the Tour de France, with the final stage being a criterium held in downtown Adelaide. It is, however, time for a change as a new 4,75km circuit has been created for this year's final stage of the race. While the old course had a (very) small climb that offered the chance to hand out a few more KOM points before the end of the race, the new circuit is completely flat. With 11 sharp turns and a number of sweeping bends, it is rather technical and will test the riders' ability to make constant accelerations during the 18 laps. Two sharp turns come in quick succession inside the final kilometre and will make for a technical sprint.

 

The sprinters will have few opportunities in this year's Tour Down Under and so nothing will prevent a big bunch sprint to end the 85.5km stage. However, the GC has often been very close going into the final stage and this means that bonus seconds could come into play. While the overall contenders are unlikely to have their say in the final sprint, the two intermediate sprints which come at the end of the 6th and 12th lap respectively, could play a crucial role in the battle for the win. Since the inclusion in the WorldTour, Francesco Chicchi, Chris Sutton and Ben Swift have all won the sprint but the dominant figure has been Andre Greipel who won the stage in 2008, 2012 and 2013. The German will be eager to make it three in a row when the 2014 edition of Australia's biggest race comes to a conclusion on Australia Day.

 

 

The weather

The weather conditions may be a draw at the Tour Down Under but the riders have often been greeted by sweltering heat that has made racing a very tough affair. This year the conditions in Adelaide are again brutal, with the first stage event being threatened by cancellation due to bushfires. This week Adelaide has experienced the hottest weather in the world but the riders will be happy to know that conditions will be a bit more bearable in the coming week.

 

Actually, the race will kick off in what can be described as perfect conditions. If the bushfires allow the stage to go ahead, the riders will take off under bright sunshine, with temperatures expected to reach a pleasant 25 degrees Celsius. There will be a moderate wind from a south eastern direction which means that the riders will have a number of crosswind sections as they head around the circuit on the opening day.

 

On Wednesday, the riders can expect to face hotter conditions as the temperatures are expected to reach 30 degrees but it is likely to be a cloudy day. There will be slightly less wind which will come from all different directions as they riders travel around the course. The sprinters can expect to have a tailwind when they battle it out on the uphill stretch in Stirling.

 

Thursday is expected to be the hottest day, with temperatures expected to reach 35 degrees on a sunny day. There will only be a light wind which will have no major impact on the racing. There will be even less wind on Friday's stage to Victor Harbor and so there is no reason to fear the strong gusts near the coast. However, the stage is likely to take place under the rain, with the temperatures reaching its maximum at an unusually cold 20 degrees.

 

The heat won't return for Saturday's queen stage but the rain will have disappeared as the sun will again welcome the riders. It will be slightly more windy but again it should have no major impact. However, it is worth noticing that the riders is expected to have a headwind on the Willunga which could make the climb a bit less selective.

 

Finally, Australia will wave goodbye to the riders on a perfect day, with plenty of sunshine and only a light wind. With the temperatures expected to stay below the 25-degree mark, it will again be an unusually cold day in Adelaide. However, the riders will be happy to know that they are not expected to deal with the heat that have plagued Australia this week.

 

The favourites

Early-season races are generally a rather unpredictable affair. With only a few national championships races to gauge the conditions of the riders, nobody - not even the riders themselves - have a real idea about how everyone is going. At the same time, none of the stars can allow themselves to be in top condition at this time of the year which makes races in January much more open to surprises than the major races later in the season. While Tom-Jelte Slagter has long been known as a good puncheur, few pundits had written him down as a genuine winner candidate one year ago and a similar surprise could come in this year's race.

 

On the other hand, this year's edition may be a bit more controlled and easier to predict than it has been the case in the past. A number of the best Australians have all red-circled the race as an early target and have made it clear that they have travelled to Adelaide to win the event. This is the case for riders like Simon Gerrans, Cadel Evans and Richie Porte and they all got a considerable boost of confidence in last Sunday's Australian championships road race. With a number of genuine winner contenders all targeting the overall, a surprise is less probable and the race shapes up to be a battle between some of the best local riders, with a number of foreigners looking to upset the home heroes.

 

The days when a sprinter can realistically hope to win the Tour Down Under are long gone and the race is likely to be won by a rider who excels on short, steep climbs and has a good punch on uphill slopes, with a decent sprint being no disadvantage either. The single most decisive stage is certainly the summit finish on Willunga which suits the Ardennes specialists, with all potential winners also having to keep up with the best on the Corkscrew Climb and Mengler's Hill. With small group sprints the likely outcomes on stages 1 and 3, bonus seconds could come into play for the faster finishers who may also use the uphill finish in Stirling shave a few seconds off their overall time.

 

Great climbing skills, a strong punch, a fast sprint and excellent condition. Simon Gerrans fits the bill better than anyone else and has a strong track record to prove his abilities in his biggest home race. After winning the race for the first time in 2006 when it was still not on the WorldTour, he has been the rider to beat since the inclusion of the Willunga summit finish in 2012. That year he added another overall title to his palmares after a closely fought battle with Alejandro Valverde and last year he was again the strongest on the race's marquee stage. Only an asthma attack on the stage over the Corkscrew Climb prevented him from defending his 2012 win in the race.

 

Last year Gerrans deliberately held back a little in the early part of the season to save his energies for later but after having ended his 2013 season earlier than planned due to a broken hip suffered in the Vuelta a Espana, he has openly admitted that he plans to start the season with all guns blazing. He did that in the best possible way by following climbers Evans and Porte on the Mt. Buninyoung in the Australian Nationals road race and using Cameron Meyer to keep things together before beating the duo in the final sprint. His performance suggests that he has timed his form to perfection and he has done nothing to hide that he will go all out to win the Tour Down Under for a third time. He is the protected rider for the GC on Orica-GreenEDGE and no team is more keen to win the event than the big home squad.

 

The route suits him down to the ground. He has never finished outside the top 2 in the Willunga uphill finish and he is very hard to beat on these kind of short, punchy climbs. When Philippe Gilbert blew last year's Amstel Gold Race to pieces on the final passage of Cauberg, only Valverde and Gerrans could match his speed, indicating that Gerrans is one of the very best in the world on these climbs. Being capable of winning small bunch sprints, he will be one of the major favourites to win the stages over Mengler's Hill and Corkscrew Climb where he can add a few bonus seconds and if he needs to, he can even go for glory in the stage to Stirling as well. On that stage, he will, however, have to share the captaincy role with teammates Michael Matthews and Matthew Goss who have both finished in the top 2 on that stage in the past. Even if he decides to back one of the team's sprinters in that stage, he has plenty of opportunities to gobble up bonus seconds along the way, making him the major favourite to add a third title to his palmares.

 

Despite finishing 3rd overall in the 2013 Giro d'Italia, Cadel Evans has not had the kind of success he was hoping for in the last two seasons. After struggling through another lacklustre Tour de France, signs were that he found his old legs towards the end of the season, performing strongly in the Tour of Alberta and the Canadian WorldTour races before crashing out of the World Championships. Speaking with CyclingQuotes immediately after the race, Australian national coach Bradley McGee regretted the tumble, saying that he had seen the old, strong Evans in the build-up to the event. That assessment was confirmed by Evans' strong performance in the Australian Nationals road race where he was one of the strongest riders on the final ascent of Mt. Buninyoung and took 2nd despite having spent a lot of energy early in the race.

 

In the past, Evans was known for his extreme consistency that allowed him to fight for the win in virtually all the races he did from the start to the end of the season. His recent performance suggests that he may find back that ability as he strives to prove that he is still one of the best grand tour riders in the world. When he last did the WorldTour race as newly crowned world champion in 2010, he was one of the strongest riders in the race and made it into an elite group with Valverde, Luis Leon Sanchez and Peter Sagan on the Willunga Hill. On that occasion, the race was too easy to be won by a grand tour contender like Evans but with a harder course, the 2011 Tour de France winner has done nothing to hide that the race is his major target in the early part of the season.

 

Despite mostly being known as a grand tour rider, Evans is actually a rather punchy guy and has all the characteristics to shine in the Tour Down Under. As a past winner of the Fleche Wallonne, winner on the Mur de Bretagne in the Tour de France, winner on the Strade Bianche in the Giro d'Italia, former world champion on the hilly course in Mendrisio and perennial contender in the hardest one-day races, Evans has repeatedly proved that he excels on short, steep ascents. He even has a decent sprint and was 3rd on the Stirling stage in 2010. He is not as fast as Gerrans but is a better climber than the newly crowned national champion of his country. While the odds are certainly on the Orica-GreenEDGE rider, Evans will be the biggest rival for the biggest favourite.

 

The third in-form Australian and red-hot favourite is Richie Porte. 2013 was the year when Porte finally earned himself the right to lead Team Sky in select races and in 2014 he will do so in the Giro d'Italia. Before getting to the Italian grand tour, he has, however, made no secret of his intention to go for glory in his big home race and while some may have doubted his form at this early time of the season, Porte was quick to dismiss the suggestion that he was not up for the challenge by being one of the three strongest riders in the Australian Nationals road race. In the end, he came up short in the sprint against Gerrans and Evans but said afterwards that he was happy with his condition one week before the first objective of his season.

 

However, the battle for the green and gold jersey proved what is the biggest obstacle for Porte in his quest to win the Tour Down Under. While few will deny that the Sky leader is probably the best climber in the race, he is no fast finisher. As the climbs are more for the punchy guys than the pure climbers, the race may be too easy for Porte to really excel. He will have a strong, full Sky team at his disposal but going up against Gerrans and Evans, he will have to ride away from them on the ascents. This will be a tough ask in a race that is always decided by mere seconds but his teammate Geraint Thomas proved last year how it can be done on the Corkscrew Climb. If anyone will do it in 2014, the rider most likely to do the trick is Porte.

 

Garmin-Sharp was originally planning to bring defending champion Tom-Jelte Slagter to the race but the impending birth of his first child has forced him to miss the race. Rohan Dennis was quick to put his hand up to take over the captaincy role and the young Australian has meticulously prepared for the challenge. Riding as a youngster on the UniSA national team, Dennis was 5th in the 2012 edition of the race and proved that he has all the characteristics to perform on the Adelaide course. Last year he missed the race due to illness after having performed well at his national time trial championships and this year he wants to make up for the disappointment.

 

Garmin-Sharp has made it clear that Dennis can win the race and he was reported to be in red-hot condition for the Nationals. However, a crash in the time trial forced him out of the race and he also abandoned the road race a few days later. This has raised questions over his condition but his form cannot have disappeared that quickly. His performances in the 2013 Criterium du Dauphiné and Tour of Alberta proves that he is ready to fight with the best but the time trial specialist may not be punchy enough to actually win the race. However, a podium spot is certainly within reach for Dennis as he continues his upwards trajectory in the professional cycling world.

 

When he rides in Europe, Movistar rider Javier Moreno is usually a loyal domestique who doesn't take much time in the spotlight but at least once in a year, the Spanish climber excels. Moreno has made the Tour Down Under his preferred testing ground, making use of his ability to always start the season with all guns blazing. He did so in 2012 when he finished 8th despite working for team leader Valverde and last year he was the closest challenger to Slagter.

 

This year he will be back and his past performances have earned him the right to lead a strong Movistar team in the Australian event. Moreno may not be as punchy as the likes of Evans and Gerrans but he has a decent kick and is well-suited to the Australian parcours. His chances may have been reduced slightly by the increased dedication shown by some of Australia's major stars but he could still be the biggest rival for the local riders. Moreno may never win big WorldTour races in Europe but don't rule out the Movistar rider in the early-season Australian event.

 

Racing under the Blanco banner, Belkin won the race last year with Tom-Jelte Slagter. The defending champion is now riding in Garmin colours but the team remains ambitious for the opening WorldTour event. When he has been injury-free, Robert Gesink has had a history of starting the season very strongly as past performances in the Tour of Oman, the Tour of California and Tirreno-Adriatico have all proved. Gesink will start his season earlier than ever before as he builds towards the Tour de France and has said that his training should allow him to be competitive in the Australian race.

 

Although he is mostly known as a pure climber, Gesink has often proved that he can do well on shorter climbs as he did when he finished on the podium in the Amstel Gold Race. Last year he even proved that he has a decent uphill sprint when he won the GP de Quebec. It may be a bit too difficult for Gesink to repeat Slagter's win from last year but don't be surprised to see the lanky Dutchman start his season with a podium result.

 

Richie Porte may be Sky's best weapon in the GC battle but the team lines up with a two-pronged attack. If the local hero fails to deliver on his promises, Geraint Thomas will be ready to take over the captaincy role, having already finished 3rd in last year's event. Thomas' win on last year's Corkscrew stage proved that he can be up there with the best on the Australian climbs and he has a fast sprint that could allow him to take a few bonus seconds. On the other hand, he is not a pure climber and as it was the case on Willunga Hill one year ago, it could again be too difficult for him to beat the punchy guys in the summit finish. At the same time, he has said that he plans to ease a bit more into the season than he did last year and is unlikely to be in the same kind of form as he was one year ago. The Porte-Thomas combination could, however, prove to be a winning one and in some kind of tactical battle, Thomas could be the one to benefit.

 

When he lined up for the Tour Down Under in 2012, Jan Bakelants came away with 6th place. This was certainly no coincidence as the climbs in Australia suit him down to the ground and he will make the Ardennes classics the centrepiece of his spring season. He will be eager to kick off his Omega Pharma-Quick Step career in the best possible way and everybody who witnessed his progress in 2014 knows that we now need to consider him as a serious contender in races like the Tour Down Under. Bakelants is never too far away from his best from and he has the kind of plucky attitude that can be rewarded on a course like the one found in Adelaide. Bakelants could be the rider to benefit from the internal battle between the local riders when he makes an unexpected move in a finale.

 

No rider ended his 2013 season better than Diego Ulissi and the Lampre-Merida rider will be keen to prove that his late-season wins in the Milan-Turin, Coppa Sabatini and Giro dell'Emilia were no fluke. If he is at his best, Ulissi will be hard to beat on this kind of parcours. He has a fast sprint that could allow him to pick up a few bonus seconds and has his main strength in hilly races with climbs that are not too long and where the overall distance is not too big. The main question is his form level as he has never started his seasons too strongly and with the Ardennes classics being his major target, he has indicated that we should not expect too much from him. At his best, Ulissi is, however, a genuine winner candidate and his name needs to feature in any kind of discussion of the favourites.

 

Finally, Frank Schleck deserves a mention. The former Tour de France podium finisher makes his comeback after an 18-month absence following his positive test for Xipamide at the 2010 Tour de France. With such a long break, Schleck will have several question marks lingering over his head but don't be surprised if he finishes near the front. Riders returning from suspension are often able to perform well in the early part of the season when there rivals are not yet in their best condition and when they can benefit from an extra level of motivation. Later in the season, their lack of racing often starts to show its effect, with the riders struggling a bit until they have more kilometres in their legs. This was the case for riders like Alejandro Valverde and Ivan Basso and the history could repeat itself for Schleck. Without a fast sprint, the Luxembourger is not a frequent winner but with strong performances in the Ardennes classics, he will relish the Adelaide Hills. Don't expect Schleck to win the race but he could continue the good start for the Trek team after Hayden Roulston's win in the New Zealand national championships.

 

***** Simon Gerrans

**** Cadel Evans, Richie Porte

*** Rohan Dennis, Javier Moreno, Robert Gesink

** Geraint Thomas, Jan Bakelants, Diego Ulissi, Frank Schleck

* Enrico Gasparotto, Ben Hermans, Francesco Gavazzi, Maxime Bouet, Simon Geschke