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Starting at 16.55, you can follow the action from another hilly stage in the Tour de Suisse

Photo: Sirotti

TOUR DE SUISSE

RACE PROFILE
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NEWS
13.06.2013 @ 16:50 Posted by Emil Axelgaard

Alexander Kristoff showed his immense power on uphill finishes by beating no less of a figure than Peter Sagan in a finish that was tailor-made to the Slovakian's characteristics and for the second day in a row, the Cannondale leader was left disappointed in a race that many had predicted would be another Sagan show. However, he gets an immediate opportunity for revenge in today's sixth stage which once again should end in a bunch sprint but it is not unlikely that a successful breakaway spoils the party on the hilly route. Starting at 16.55, you can follow all the action on CyclingQuotes.com/live.

 

Another typical Tour de Suisse stage awaits the riders today, and the 187,9km route from Leuggern to Mellen should be another one for the toughest sprinters. The first 110km are slightly undulating but mostly flat. The riders will then tackle the tough category 3 climb Scwändigstrasse (2,6, 10,0%) but it will be located too early to make any real difference. The real challenges will be the category 3 Limbergstrasse (3,0km, 6,8%) and an easier  uncategorized climb which both come inside the final 25km of the stage and could send some of the fast men out of the backdoor while also serving as launching pads for late attacks.

 

The final 3km are completely flat as the riders travel along a slightly winding road on the shores of the Zürichsee.  There are, however, no sharp corners and the riders will probably not be forced to even touch their brakes in the finale. If it comes down to a sprint, it will be another power one for the powerful riders but a slight headwind should turn timing into a key attribute for any rider with hopes of success.

 

While the last two days were destined to end in a bunch sprint, the outcome of today's leg could be a little bit more up in the air. The hilly nature of the finale will make some of the sprinters doubt whether they can survive the final climbs, and so they might not be that eager to chase down the early break. Most teams' post-race statements yesterday reflected this uncertainty and many clearly see this as the day where a breakaway could finally make it.

 

Already yesterday, the start of the stage was much more aggressive than the first part of Tuesday's sprinter-friendly one. With many teams giving a breakaway a fair chance to survive, most teams will be eager to be represented in the early move. Hence, we should see a very fast start during the first hour of the race and the numerous small climbs could make it very hard to control.

 

There is no doubt that the teams of the sprinters will do what they can to control the composition and size of the breakaway and especially Cannondale will certainly be keen to take revenge for their recent defeats. Argos-Shimano, Katusha and FDJ are likely to chip in with some assistance while Orica-GreenEdge made it clear yesterday that they will take an attacking approach to today's stage.

 

The outcome of today's stage will be completely determined by the composition of the early breakaway. If a sizeable one goes clear, the teams of the sprinters are likely to write off the stage and leave it to BMC to keep the gap at a reasonable distance throughout the entire day. If the group is a small one, they should, however, bring it all back together for the final two climbs.

 

The early part of the stage is not overly difficult and Sagan will be extremely eager to take revenge. We expect his Cannondale team to do a fair share of work throughout the day and with a number of sprinters still looking for a win, we would expect it to end up in a bunch sprint.

 

Alexander Kristoff won an uphill sprint in the recent Tour of Norway and yesterday he proved that it was not by coincidence. The big Norwegian is actually a really tough guy who handles smaller climbs well - recall that he finished in the top 10 in both the Milan-Sanremo and the Tour of Flanders earlier this year - and he should be able to survive the final two ascents. The tough finale should even be to his advantage as he is mostly left to fend for himself in the sprints. He knows how to do that but with fewer sprinters in contention, the risk of getting boxed in will be much smaller. The high-speed power sprint should suit him perfectly and since his lack of lead-out will force him to come from behind, the headwind should be another element playing into the hands of the Norwegian.

 

We have been keen to stress the strength of Matthew Goss' lead-out train but yesterday they timed it terribly. Daryl Impey lost the wheel of Baden Cooke, and when the veteran Australian hit the front, Impey and Goss were nowhere to be seen. Goss actually made a decent sprint from a long way behind but had no chance to make up for his bad position.

 

It is very unusual for Goss to start a sprint from behind as his team often delivers him in the perfect spot. On paper, he is still the fastest guy in the peloton and if his team finally gets it right, he could very well win today. If the Australian is at his best, he should be able to handle the final two climbs and his lead-out man Impey will not be troubled either. However, it remains to be seen how much of his train will be present when they head down the descent towards the finish in Meilen.

 

Already yesterday, we mentioned that Sagan appears to have lost some of his finishing kick - maybe due to his recent hard training block in the mountains. It was very unusual for him to miss yesterday's perfect opportunity where he was allowed to start an uphill sprint in perfect position. The Slovakian has a winner's attitude and unless the stage is a time trial or a mountaintop finish, he always rides to win. Today he will be very eager to put his sprinting back on track.

 

Until now, his team has done a tremendous job to chase down the early breaks but has not made use of the late climbs and the fact that Sagan is the superior climber among the sprinters. Today's tough finale could be a good opportunity to finally change that strategy. Both Moreno Moser and Damiano Caruso have lost their GC options and should be completely at Sagan's disposal. If they go hard on the final climbs, many sprinters will get dropped. Yesterday, IAM tried this strategy but the climbing was too easy. If Sagan wants to win, he should make use of today's hilly profile and the two climbers in his team's line-up.

 

Arnaud Demare is one of the fastest guys in this race and his recent overall win in the Four Days of Dunkirk proves that he is also a rather tough guy. He has a decent chance of making it over those final climbs but we doubt that his lead-out man William Bonnet will survive. That leaves him to fend for himself in the battle for position and that is certainly not his forte. If he gets a clean run to the line, he could win today's stage but it will be tough for him to start his sprint in a good position.

 

Heinrich Haussler is maybe only surpassed by Sagan when it comes to the combination of climbing legs and speed and the Australian appears to be in splendid condition for one of the most important races of his season. Yesterday his team tried to make the finale tough and they will likely try to do the same today. Yesterday's uphill finish suited him a little bit more than today's flat power sprint and we doubt that he has the speed to beat the fastest riders in this race. If he times his kick into the headwind perfectly, he does, however, have a outside chance at the end of a hard stage like today's.

 

We have been keen to stress that John Degenkolb has sprinted terribly all season, and yesterday he once again proved why. All year he has been unable to stay in the wheel of his lead-out man and the same was the case yesterday when he was nowhere to be seen as teammate Simon Geschke hit the front and was supposed to have his sprinter just behind. Being too far back, he stopped sprinting and finished a modest 84th. He is, however, a really strong climber and has just completed a hard block of training in the mountains. We doubt that today's climbing will be enough to shake off the man who finished 4th in last year's hilly worlds and he could benefit from a less hectic final kilometers with a smaller group. This power sprint suits him well but as is often the case for Degenkolb, his fate will be determined long before his actual sprint.

 

Jose Joaquin Rojas, Ben Swift (if he has recovered sufficiently from his stomach problems), Jacopo Guarnieri, Lloyd Mondory, Davide Cimolai, Matti Breschel, Daniele Bennati, Boy Van Poppel, Grega Bole and Julien Simon all have a decent chance of surviving the final climbs and could mix it up for a top 10 spot in the final sprint.

 

If a breakaway is to decide today's stage, the route has "Michael Albasini" written all over the place. As mentioned above, his team is eager to go on the attack today, using Goss only as a back-up plan, and the Swiss is extremely eager to repeat last year's stage win. His recent win in the GP Gippingen, splendid performance in the prologue and fantastic climbing on Sunday and Monday are testaments to his current strength. He is a master of joining the right moves and his fast sprint makes him a danger man in a final dash to the line.

 

World champion Philippe Gilbert was eager to try his hand in yesterday's sprint but came up short against the pure sprinters. He has done nothing to hide that he wants to finally win a race in the rainbow jersey and he will do what he can to join the day's early move. The same goes for Thomas Löfkvist who is in his home area and knows the roads of today's stage really well. Enrico Gasparotto, Martin Elmiger and Jens Voigt are also good picks in today's stage.

 

We could also see a late attack spoil the party for the sprinters and the riders mentioned above could all be part of such a move. The same goes for Luis Leon Sanchez and Lars-Petter Nordhaug whose Blanco team have given them a free hand to try something in the finale. Both are riding strongly right now and if it is all back together for the category 3 climb, we expect one of those to try their hands.

 

Starting at 16.55, you can follow the stage on CyclingQuotes.com/live.

 

CyclingQuotes' stage winner picks: Alexander Kristoff, Matthew Goss, Peter Sagan

Outsiders: Heinrich Haussler, Arnaud Demare, John Degenkolb

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