Yesterday Peter Sagan took an impressive stage win in the mountains. Today he has a solid chance of making it two in a row as the peloton travels north into the non-mountainous part of Switzerland for the first of three consecutive stages for the sprinters. However, the Slovakian superman will not have it all for himself as the race has attracted a formidable line-up of sprinters who will in all likelihood go head-to-head in an exciting battle in Buochs late in the afternoon. Starting at 16.55, you can follow the action on CyclingQuotes.com/live.
The sprinters will get their first chance in Tuesday's fourth stage. The 174,4km stage from Innertkirchen to Buochs is mostly flat despite the presence of two tough category 2 climbs (8,0km with 6,2% & 3,7km with 6,2%). From the top of the last of those, 40,5km remain and they are only punctuated by a small category 4 ascent (2,6km, 3,7%) with 25,2km to go. From then on, the roads are completely flat and we should see the many sprinters go head to head for the first time.
However, they will have to negotiate a tricky finale to come out triumphant. The final kilometers are completely flat but two sharp bends will test the riders' positioning and technical abilities. The first of those is located 1700m from the line and its role will be insignificant. That is certainly not the case for the final 90-degrees left-hand bend coming with just around 200m still to race. There will be very little time to regain any lost ground after that corner and any rider with stage win ambitions will probably have to enter it in one of the first three positions. Hence, we could very well see two sprints: one to get first into the corner and one to cross the finish line in first position.
Despite the presence of the tough climbs, a sprint finish is almost guaranteed. While the Tour de Suisse usually offers a number of opportunities for the fast finishers, the pure sprinters' will not find much of the terrain to their liking. Every stage has some climbing along the way and very often it is too tough for some of the world's fastest finishers. Today's stage is a testament to this and so it is no coincidence that the sprinters who have lined up in Switzerland, are all in possession of a pair of solid climbing legs.
The final category 2 climb is located too far away from the finish to pose any threat for those sprinters and while we could see a team try to up the pace to tire out some fast legs, most are hopeful that they will make it to the finish. As today's stage has the easiest finish of the entire race and as no hierarchy among the sprinters has yet been established, opportunists have no chance to foil the fast men today.
The presence of the bend so close to the finish means that the winner will probably be a sprinter with a formidable ability to position himself and a furious acceleration. Power sprinters who need a long run to reach their top speed have little chance in a sprint like today's. One rider fits the bill more than any other: yesterday's "climber" Peter Sagan.
The Slovakian does not have the best support crew for a sprint but that rarely bothers him at all. In the Tour of California he was defeated in at least one sprint because he chose to stay in the wheel of his inexperienced lead-out man Guillaume Boivin, instead of finding his own way through the final carnage. No one knows how to position himself well for a sprint like Sagan. Furthermore, the Slovakian has the best bike-handling skills of the entire peloton and is one of the most explosive sprinters, thus making him perfectly suited to this kind of finish. Last year, he won 4 stages in the event. Today he could very well make it two already on the fourth day of racing and with three more sprint stages coming up, he has a chance of taking no less than 5 wins this year.
His most likely challenger is Matthew Goss. The Australian got his season off to a perfect start by beating Greipel, Cavendish and Sagan in a stage in the Tirreno-Adriatico but since then he has had little success. His Giro and Romandie performances suggested that he is not as fast as last year and this Swiss race has been marked out as an opportunity for him to regain some lost confidence. He is not as explosive as Sagan but he has another key tool which could deliver him his second win of the season: his team. Orica-GreenEdge, Lotto-Belisol and Argos-Shimano have the most well-drilled lead-out trains of the entire peloton and the Australians have brought most of their sprint team to the Swiss race. Riders like Baden Cooke, Stuart O'Grady, Aidis Kruopis and final lead-out man Daryl Impey could very well win the battle for control in the final kilometres of this stage and it would be no surprise to see Impey and Goss enter that final corner in the first two positions. If that happens, Goss could very well finish it off.
Arnaud Demare has been in terrific condition most season, performing splendidly in the classics and completely dominating the 4 Days of Dunkirk. Unlike most of his rivals, he is not here to prepare for the Tour de France, the young rider saving his debut in his big home race for the years to come. Instead, he focuses on some of the autumn classics and will be eager to get success among this formidable line-up of sprinters.
The Frenchman is extremely fast but is often hampered by a bad position and thus he very often makes it either to the podium or finishes outside the top 10. His usual lead-out man Mickael Delage is not in Switzerland this week but William Bonnet should be able to take over the role. With further support form Yoann Offredo, he has a solid team to back him and he is one of the most explosive sprinters in the peloton. His most difficult challenge will be to negotiate the stretch leading to the final bend. If he gets there in one of the best positions, he could very well ride away with the win.
Alexander Kristoff just gets better and better all the time and while most of his season has been focused on a solid classics campaign, his performances in De Panne, the Scheldeprijs and most recently the Tour of Norway proves that he has also improved as a sprinter. His usual lead-out crew is left out of the line-up and so he will mostly have to fend for himself in the run-in to the line. He is neither the most explosive nor the fastest sprinter in the peloton but certainly one of the most consistent. He is an unlikely winner of the stage but could very well make it onto the podium.
Tyler Farrar felt reinvigorated as a sprinter due to his strong performances in the Tour of California and the American will be eager to show that he still deserves some support from his team in races like the Tour de France. Nothing can hide that he does not have the top speed that saw him enter the world elite during the 2009 season but he still has a solid kick. Robert Hunter is one of the best lead-out men in the world but the South African is not part of the line-up for Switzerland. Instead, it will be left to Alex Rasmussen to support his sprinter and while the Dane does not have Hunter's formidable ability to position his sprinter, he certainly has the speed to string out the peloton and put Farrar into a good position for the final corner.
Heinrich Haussler is another rider who is well-suited to this kind of finish as the Australian is extremely explosive. This race is the biggest target for his IAM team and his prologue performance, climbing in recent days and win in the Bayern Rundfahrt all show that he is in splendid condition. His ability to position himself for the sprint is not the best and he has very little support from his team of climbers. If he overcomes those difficulties, he could, however, make his second podium in just 4 days of racing.
A dark horse for the sprint could be Romain Feillu who has been almost invisible so far this season but is now back from illness and knows how to negotiate a tricky finish. On the other hand, the explosive nature of the sprint does not suit power sprinters like John Degenkolb - who has sprinted terribly all season - and Tom Boonen. Similarly, Mark Renshaw has just returned to competition from his bad Tour of Turkey crash and while the stage on paper is well-suited to his characteristics, it would be a surprise to see him mix it up with the best already now. The remaining sprinters are Jose Joaquin Rojas, Enrique Sanz, Ben Swift, Jacopo Guarnieri, Lloyd Mondory, Davide Cimolai, Davide Vigano, Daniele Bennati, Kenny Dehaes, Boy Van Poppel, Grega Bole, Cyril Leomine and possibly Julien Simon who could all get into the top 10 in a stage like today's.
CyclingQuotes' stage winner picks: Peter Sagan, Matthew Goss, Arnaud Demare
Outsiders: Alexander Kristoff, Tyler Farrar, Heinrich Haussler
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