As it is usually the case in the Tour de Suisse, the GC riders will have to be ready from the gun if they want to come out triumphant. Yesterday's weather-afflicted first stage opened the first small gaps among the overall contenders but today's stage will give the first real indications of the favourites' strength. Show may have forced organizers to skip the Nufenenpass early in the stage but the summit finish in Crans-Montana remains and will be a tough end to a short and fast stage. Starting at 16.05, you can follow the exciting stage on CyclingQuotes.com/live.
The race heads directly into the mountains with the first of several crucial days for the GC riders. The short 161,3km stage was scheduled to start in Quinto and head directly up the tough HC climb Nufenenpass to reach an altitude of 2478m above sea level. Snow has, however, forced the organizers to skip the mountain and instead the riders will travel from the presentation in Quinto by bus to Ulrichen. The stage will thus be shortened to only 119km and will start off with more than 100km of gradually descending valley roads, leading to the bottom of the day's final climb up to Crans-Montana. The category 1 climb (13,9km, 6,8%) is often used in the event and was the scene for Mauricio Soler's last big win in 2011, just days before a crash made a tragic end to his career. The climb will make the first big separation between the contenders and show who has what it takes to win this year's race.
A breakaway was always unlikely to make it to the finish but the Nufenenpass could have seen a sizeable and strong group go clear early in the race which could have been difficult to bring back. The easy start to the altered course now means that it will be very easy for the Orica-GreenEdge team of overall leader Cameron Meyer to control the proceedings, and there will probably not be many riders keen to go on the attack as they know that they have very little change of making it all the way to the finish. The Australian team should be assisted by teams with stage win ambitions in their chase along the valley roads and it should be all be back together when the peloton hits the bottom of the final climb.
The ascent is not overly difficult but has always been able to provide some separation between the overall contenders. The time gaps will probably not be very big but we should get some early indications of the riders' current level of form. In our race preview, we pointed to Thibaut Pinot as the favourite to win the entire race and we expect the Frenchman to show his cards already in today's stage. He was one of the wise guys yesterday who chose to start rather early and instead of finding him in the expected position of having to gain time on riders like Tejay Van Garderen, Rui Costa and Simon Spilak, he is now 13, 8 and 35 seconds ahead of them, respectively. He would probably have preferred a longer, tougher stage but the final climb should be well-suited to his characteristics and he has been one of the strongest climbers whenever he has lined up for a race so far this season. His solid performance in the recent Bayern Rundfahrt and his decent prologue yesterday shows that he is strong right now, and he could very well stamp his authority on the race right from the start.
Defending champion Rui Costa rocketed to a stage win and into an early overall lead in stage two last year when he won a similar stage to Verbier. He has made a defence of last year's title a key target and has prepared carefully for the event. His current level was uncertain prior to yesterday's prologue as he had not raced since his 3rd place finish in April's Tour de Romandie but his performance in the time trial indicates that he is red-hot condition at the moment. Despite racing in the strong wind as the last rider down the ramp, he was one of the very best of the late starters and was only beaten by a few select specialists. He has never performed strongly in short time trials in the past but yesterday he even managed to put time into Tejay Van Garderen who was expected to benefit from the early race against the clock. The final climb should suit him well and he even has a decent final kick to the line. He will be eager to ride himself into an early lead as he did it last year and he will be surrounded by a strong team in his quest to show that he is ready to defend last year's title.
Domenico Pozzovivo has travelled to Switzerland from a slightly disappointing 10th place in the Giro d'Italia and wants to make amends in this race. Generally, Giro riders have a tendency to perform strongly in the early part of the Swiss race before fading towards the end when the fatigue starts to catch up with them. Yesterday's time trial could now have been less suited to the tiny Italian than it was ad nonetheless he performed solidly, only losing 2 seconds to Janez Brajkovic who started only three minutes later. This proves that he has maintained some of his Giro condition and could make a good performance today. He had preferred a steeper climb but he could make good use of the final hard stretches to distance his rivals.
Indications from the Garmin camp are than Daniel Martin is in good condition these days and he appeared to be highly ambitious in yesterday's prologue where he almost came down in a crash due to high speed in a sharp corner. The Liege-Bastogne-Liege used the recent Bayern Rundfahrt to ride himself into form and today's climb should suit him well. He has a tendency to struggle a little bit on really long, hard climbs but this more gradual ascent will be to his liking. He is rather explosive and has a decent final kick, thus making him dangerous in a sprint if he has not been dropped when the riders enter the finishing straight.
Roman Kreuziger won this race back in 2008 and has always performed strongly in Swiss races. He is not in the Dauphiné to support Contador and build team cohesion prior to the Tour, and this means that the team sees him as a potential winner of the Swiss race. Earlier in his career, his was a formidable prologue rider but yesterday's flat course was not to his liking. Nonetheless, he performed very well and even beat Van Garderen and Peraud who also had late starts. This is testament to his current strength and today could be the day for the Czech to finally get his stage racing career back on track after a number of unsuccessful seasons.
Prior to the race, we had big expectations for Simon Spilak who has been one of the standout performers in the early part of the season. However, the Slovenian was the big disappointment in yesterday's prologue where he was only 137th. In the recent Tour of Belgium, he was also far from his best but suddenly popped up to perform strongly in the time trial. Generally, his level is very difficult to predict and sometimes he is outstanding one day and a huge disappointment the next. Until now he has not shown anything to suggest that he is at his best. He has, however, been one of the consistently strongest riders during the spring season and it could be a big mistake to rule him out based on a bad time trial performance.
Riders like Diego Ulissi, Damiano Caruso and Michele Scarponi could also very well ride away with the stage win as they have the punch to benefit from the hard parts close to the finish. Furthermore, it will be interesting to gauge the level of Ryder Hesjedal who was the big winner in yesterday's prologue as his early start saw him finish 9th in the stage.
Finally, Cameron Meyer of course deserves a mention. The Australian has improved his climbing much in recent years and he has a rather big gap to the best climbers. It would be a huge surprise if he has what it takes to follow the best but his chances of defending the lead are solid. There are no bonus seconds in this year's race and so Pinot and Costa will have to distance the Orica-GreenEdge rider with 32 and 40 seconds, respectively. It should be close but Meyer could very well find himself in another yellow jersey at the end of the day.
CyclingQuotes' stage winner picks: Thibaut Pinot, Rui Costa, Domenico Pozzovivo
Outsiders: Daniel Martin, Roman Kreuziger, Simon Spilak
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