The opening stage of the Tour de Pologne turned out to be chaos as wind, rain and hail made it more about staying upright than trying to go for victory. Many sprinters were left disappointed but luckily they will get an immediate opportunity to take revenge in tomorrow’s second stage whose flat profile makes it another obvious one for the fast finishers.

 

The course

The sprinters that were left disappointed on the opening day will get an immediate chance to take their revenge as the second stage is another one for the fast riders. On the second day the riders will make a small digression from their journey to the south as they will mainly travel in an easterly direction to end the stage in the Polish capital of Warsaw which hasn’t been visited by the race since 2011.

 

Stage 1 was mostly flat but this one is even flatter. This time there are no rolling hills and the long 226km trek from Torun to Warsaw offers virtually no altitude gains at all. Hence, it is no surprise that the organizers have not included a single mountain sprint and the main highlights will be the intermediate sprints at the 169.1 and 196.3km marks. As it is typical for the Tour de Pologne, the stage ends with three laps of a finishing circuit and this one is a completely flat affair of just 4.8km.

 

The finishing circuit has a few turns just after the passage of the finish line but otherwise it is mostly non-technical. 2km from the finish, the riders will turn left in a roundabout and then follow a long straight, completely flat road until the take the crucial final left-hand turn just 300m from the line.

 

Warsaw last hosted the Tour de Pologne in 2011 when Marcel Kittel took his first ever WorldTour victory on the opening day before going on to win another three stages of the race. In 2010, Jacopo Guarnieri was the fastest in the opening bunch sprint while Borut Bozic was the first winner in 2009. In 2007 and 2008, the race opened with a team time trial in the capital and they were won by Lampre-Fondital and Team CSC-Saxo Bank respectively, with Roberto Longo and Lars Bak becoming the first race leaders.

 

 

 

 

 

The weather

Today the weather turned out to be the key factor in the race as sweltering heat gave way for a hailstorm and torrential rain that made the roads very slippery. The riders will be pleased to know that things should be better for tomorrow’s stage.

 

It will be another very hot day in Poland as the temperature in Warsaw is expected to reach 34 degrees but after a start in sunny conditions, the sky should be pretty cloudy. Luckily, it is most likely that it will stay dry for the entire race but another shower cannot be ruled out.

 

There will be a moderate wind from a southeasterly direction which means that the riders will generally have a headwind all day. The final section towards Warsaw will be raced with a cross-headwind. The finishing circuit will off several different wind direction but importantly the riders will have a tailwind on the long road that leads to the final left-hand turn. On the finishing straight, there will be a crosswind.

 

The favourites

Today’s stage turned out to be a lot more dramatic than expected. Not only did the weather conditions turn the race into a battle for survival, there was also a pretty interesting tactical battle between the sprint teams. Tomorrow it seems that the weather will be a bit more pleasant, meaning that the tactics may again take centre stage.

 

On paper, tomorrow’s stage is clearly one for the sprinters but as the sprint teams failed to organize a chase, at one point it seemed as though the escapees had a chance. However, the weather conditions made the GC riders nervous and prompted Tinkoff-Saxo to up the chase.

 

If a similar situation occurs in tomorrow’s stage, the escapees may again fancy their chances. This time, however, the race has a leader and there is no doubt that Ag2r will do their utmost to defend the jersey. This means that there will be a bit less anarchy and the French team will probably bear the brunt of the workload.

 

At the same time, it is a very long stage and with a headwind, it will be a very hard one for the break to finish off. Nonetheless, we could see a bit more attacking in the early part of the race as more riders may be interested in joining the break but Ag2r and the other sprint teams should be able to make sure that the escapee is not too strong.

 

Today Giant-Shimano did most of the early work but after Luka Mezgec crashed in today’s finale, they may be a bit less keen to chase too hard. Sky and Garmin-Sharp both lend a hand in the opening stage but both came away empty-handed as Ben Swift and Tyler Farrar were both involved in crashes.

 

At the moment, it is unclear how hard Mezgec has been hurt but it seems that he will be able to continue in the race. Swift hurt his shoulder while there has been no information about the extent of Farrar’s injuries.

 

The distribution of the workload will clearly depend on the injuries of the sprinters. However, Giant-Shimano have several different options and they should be able to provide some assistance. Garmin-Sharp are mostly here for the sprints and also have a roster loaded with fast finishers which means that they should also come to the fore. Sky may be a little less keen to be part of the action but if one adds Ag2r to the mix, there should be enough firepower to ensure a bunch sprint finish.

 

With a sharp turn coming very close to the finish, team support is the key to success in tomorrow’s stage. No one will win the stage if he is not in a good position in that corner 300m from the line and the rider that is delivered on the front will have a definite advantage.

 

This means that the favourite must be one of the sprinters with a strong team at their disposal. On paper, Giant-Shimano, Garmin-Sharp and Orica-GreenEDGE have the best trains and this provides their sprinters with a definite advantage. Today we didn’t get the chance to see how the trains measure up against each other as their sprinters were all held up by or involved in crashes.

 

Yesterday Mezgec was our favourite to win the stage but due to his hard crash we won’t put our money on the Slovenian this time around. If Mezgec is not up for the challenge, the Giant team loses a fair amount of firepower for the sprint as either Ramon Sinkeldam or Nikias Arndt will take over the role of lead sprinter. Instead, we will put our money on Garmin-Sharp to dominate the finale.

 

In recent years, things haven’t gone according to plan for Tyler Farrar but this year he has actually been sprinting really well. He was a constant factor in the cobbled classics and even finished 2nd behind Marcel Kittel in the Scheldeprijs. In the Ster ZLM Toer, he finished 2nd thrice despite being up against Kittel and André Greipel.

 

In this race, he has Steele Von Hoff, Koldo Fernandez and Raymond Kreder at his side and that is a really solid support team for the sprint finishes. Even though there are several strong sprinters in this race, the really fast guys are not here. On paper, Farrar should be one of the fastest in this group and if his team can position him near the front, he could return to his winning ways at the WorldTour level.

 

Today Giant-Shimano rode in support of Mezgec but we doubt that he is ready to go full gas in stage 2. Instead, Ramon Sinkeldam is likely to take over the role of lead sprinter as the Dutchman has been sprinting really well all year. In the Tour de Picardie, he challenged Arnaud Demare in the uphill sprints and he beat some of the fastest sprinters in the world to win the second stage of the World Ports Classic.

 

Today he did a massive amount of work for Mezgec in the finale and was instrumental in chasing down Peter Velits’ late attack. Even if Mezgec is not at 100%, he has a very strong team at his side and this plays a key role in tomorrow’s stage. If Mezgec is still able to do a job in the finale, Sinkeldam will have one of the best lead-outs and this counts for a lot in tomorrow’s stage.

 

Today Sacha Modolo hit the deck but luckily he seems to have escaped the incident without major injuries. On paper he is the fastest rider in this race and the technical finale suits him really well. In the Tour de Suisse and the Driedaagse de Panne he has won stages with corners close to the finish and he knows how to position himself perfectly in such circumstances.

 

He has just come back from illness and it is doubtful whether he is already at good enough level to go for the victory in a WorldTour race. In this kind of finale, however, he is naturally one of the favourites.

 

Mezgec may have hit the deck in today’s stage but we won’t rule the Slovenian out. If he has recovered from his injuries, he may still be in with a chance. He has a formidable team at his side which is more important than top speed in tomorrow’s stage. The flat stage may not suit him perfectly but in the Giro he proved how far he has come in the pure bunch sprints. If Giant again dominate a finale, Mezgec may take the win.

 

When it comes to top speed, Michael Matthews doesn’t have many chances against the faster sprinters but in this kind of finale, he is a clear outsider. With Brett Lancaster and Mitchell Docker at his side, he has a very strong lead-out train and it won’t be a surprise to see Docker enter the final turn as the first rider with Matthews on his wheel. Even though there are faster riders in this race, it will be hard for the rivals to get past Matthews on the short finishing straight.

 

Today Juan Jose Lobato was held up in a crash but he suffered no major injuries. Tomorrow should offer him a chance to make amends and with his recent win in a hard stage of the Tour de Wallonie, he is clearly in great form. He may not be able to count on a lot of support in the finale but he usually positions himself pretty well for the sprints. The late corner should suit him well and if he gets onto the right wheel in the finale, he has the speed to finish it off.

 

Today Yauheni Hutarovich took a convincing victory in a very unusual manner. Usually, the Belarusian is known for his speed but he often struggles in the fight for position. Today he was a constant presence near the front before he latched onto the right wheel in the finale before he passed Roman Maikin before the line. He clearly benefited from the fact that many sprinters were held up in the finale which made it easier to find the right position. Tomorrow should be a lot harder and the late turn doesn’t suit him well. On the other hand, he has lots of confidence and he definitely has an outside chance.

 

Finally, we will select our jokers. Yesterday we already pointed to Roberto Ferrari as a second Lampre-Merida option and today it seemed that there was no clear plan whether Modolo or Ferrari was the lead sprinter. As Modolo is still not at 100%, Ferrari may get his chance. This sprint suits him perfectly as the late corner means that it is more about positioning and acceleration. Those are exactly some of his strong points and tomorrow could finally be the day when he wins a race for his Lampre team.

 

On paper, Theo Bos is one of the fastest riders in this field but the Dutchman has been sprinting poorly all year. Today he was again off the mark and things haven’t gone according to plan for the former track sprinter. To add to his woes, tomorrow’s stage doesn’t suit a power sprinter like Bos. On the other hand, Graeme Brown is a very experienced lead-out man and if he manages to position the Belkin sprinter, we won’t rule out a win for Bos.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Tyler Farrar

Other winner candidates: Ramon Sinkeldam, Sacha Modolo

Outsiders: Luka Mezgec, Michael Matthews, Juan Jose Lobato, Yauheni Hutarovich

Jokers: Roberto Ferrari, Theo Bos