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CyclingQuotes.com gives an in-depth analysis of the contenders for the white jersey

Photo: ASO

TOUR DE FRANCE

RACE PROFILE
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NEWS
03.07.2014 @ 17:16 Posted by Emil Axelgaard

The battle for the white jersey offers an opportunity to keep an attentive eye on the most exciting stage racing talent in the world and the youth classification has had outstanding winners on most occasions ever since Francesco Moser took the first crown in 1975. This year's competition shapes up to be an extremely exciting one with 3 huge talents set to go head-to-head on the French roads throughout the next three weeks.

 

The white jersey competition is open to all riders born on January 1 1989 or later and this year 28 riders will line up with a chance to wear the coveted tunic. A first-time winner will have to be found as 2013 champion Nairo Quintana – who would have been eligible for the classification – is recovering after the Giro and won’t take the start while 2012 and 2011 champions Tejay van Garderen and Pierre Rolland are too old to conquer the jersey for a second time. Quintana, however, may take a second title in 2015 when he is set to return to the French grand tour after a one-year absence.

 

Since Bernhard Hinault became the latest French rider to win the Tour de France back in 1985, France has been in desperate search of their next big star. For several years, they have been completely out of the running for the victory in their home race but over the last few years, a host of exciting talents have emerged. Three years ago Pierre Rolland first warned the world about what’s coming out of France when he won the mountains jersey, and this year the host country finds itself in the nice position of having the two favourites for the jersey that marks the biggest talent of the race.

 

It is hard to look beyond Thibaut Pinot as the favourite to ride into Paris with the white jersey on his shoulders. For several years, the French climber was regarded as a huge talent but few would have imagined him to have the kind of Tour debut that he had two years ago. The youngster not only finished the race in 10th overall, he also won a medium mountain stage in Switzerland. Impressively, his high overall placing was taken on a course with very little climbing and lots of climbing which certainly didn’t favour a pure climber like him, and he could even have finished higher if he hadn’t been held up in the dramatic crash on the stage to Metz.

 

Last year Pinot had a disastrous race. All was set for a beautiful showing by the young Frenchman. He made it safely through the feared first week without losing any time and was riding comfortably near the front on the first major mountain, Port de Pailheres, when Sky had exploded the peloton to pieces.

 

It all came to nothing on the subsequent descent. Due to a crash during his junior career, Pinot fears high speed and that was exactly what he had to deal with as the peloton was in full pursuit of Nairo Quintana down the mountain. He lost contact with the main favourites and lost all hopes of a top result. Pinot was left depressed and never recovered mentally from seeing months of preparation fall apart. He abandoned a week later, citing a sore throat.

 

Last autumn, however, he proved that there is no reason to write him off as a grand tour contender when he finished 7th in the Vuelta after having raced a very consistent race. This year illness and injury have set him back – most recently in the Tour de Suisse – and so he has had very few results. When he has been at 100%, however, he has shown flashes of his talent, most recently in the Bayern Rundfahrt where he was second in the queen stage.

 

Pinot has proved that he is capable of being up there with the very best on the big days in the mountains and on paper he is the best climber of the young riders in this year’s Tour. Furthermore, he has improved a lot in time trials and in fact he has finished in the top 10 in most of the TTs he has done this year. They have all been held on hilly courses and this year’s Tout TT may not have the same kind of difficulty but his results prove that he can now defend himself in the race against the clock. Finally, he has improved his descending skills a lot and he doesn’t seem to be hampered by that weakness anymore.

 

His main disadvantage is his poor positioning skills and he could easily lose time on the cobbles and in the hectic first stages in England. However, most of his key rivals are not too skilled in this aspect either and Pinot is unlikely to be the only one to suffer. If he gets safely through the first week, his climbing skills may be enough for him to take the white jersey that eluded him in 2012.

 

His biggest rival is likely to be compatriot Romain Bardet. The Frenchman had a fantastic grand tour debut in last year’s Tour when he rode an aggressive race, finished 15th overall and ended the race as best Frenchman.

 

While he was never up there with the best back then, things can be expected to be different this time around as he has taken a massive step up. Having finished his first grand tour, he won the mountainous Tour de l’Ain in the autumn and he finished the year on a high by fifth in the WorldTour race, Tour of Beijing.

 

This year, however, he has been better than ever. He is now able to mix it up with the best at the WorldTour level and has finished in the top 5 in both the Volta a Catalunya and the Criterium du Dauphiné which are probably the two stage races that have had the strongest line-ups so far. He had a slow start to the latter race but gradually found his legs and ended the race perfectly by being part of the brave move that turned the race on its head on the final day.

 

Bardet’s main assets are his great climbing skills. He may not yet be at Pinot’s level but he is definitely not far off the mark. Furthermore, he has proved that he can already handle the strains of a three-week race and seems to be riding consistently at a high level. His main weakness is his time trialling and as he hasn’t shown the same kind of progress as Pinot, he is likely to lose time to his compatriot on the penultimate day.

 

Michal Kwiatkowski has been one of the in-form riders of the season and has been almost unstoppable all year. In the Ardennes classics, he proved that he is already one of the very best one-day riders in the world and his potential seems to have no limits.

 

Despite his impressive run of success, the early part of the season has also revealed that he still suffers a lot on the long climbs. He may have proved his climbing skills enormously, but in both Tirreno-Adriatico and Vuelta al Pais Vasco, he showed that he still needs to take a few steps to be competitive on the really hard climbs.

 

This year’s Tour de France is set to be decided in the mountains and nothing suggests that Kwiatkowski is capable of following the likes of Pinot and Bardet yet. On the other hand, the Pole has a few aces up his sleeves that could keep in contention despite his limitations.

 

First of all, he is an excellent time triallist and the gains he can make in stage 20 are very big. Furthermore, he is extremely versatile and masters all disciplines of cycling. He is excellent in the fight for position and in last year’s Tour of Flanders he proved that he is a great rider on the cobbles as well. While Bardet and Pinot could both lose time in the first week, Kwiatkowski is unlikely to do so. He may have an advantage over his rivals even before the race reaches the mountains.

 

The biggest obstacle for Kwiatkowski, however, may be to ride consistently well during the entire race. While extremely strong at his best, he can be terribly poor when he gets fatigued. Last year he handled the Tour pretty well to finish 11th overall but this year he has had a very hard spring season. Furthermore, he didn’t excel in the Dauphiné and his national championships and his team even had him undergo medical tests to make sure than nothing was wrong with him. It is still too early to rule out Kwiatkowski as future grand tour contender but this year’s Tour may come a bit too early for him.

 

It is hard to imagine that the winner won’t be either Pinot, Bardet or Kwiatkowski but there are a few outsiders. The most obvious one is Sebastien Reichenbach who is likely to be the next big Swiss climber. Last year he had a great first year as a professional but in 2014 he has taken a step up and is now up there with the best in the WorldTour races.

 

In the Criterium du Dauphiné, he climbed better than ever before and seemed poised for a top 10 finish when he cracked on the final day and dropped to 14th. That race proved how far he has come as a climber but it also revealed that it may still be a bit too early for him to go for GC in a grand tour.

 

As this is his first grand tour, Reichenbach is likely not to focus on the overall standings and his main task will be to support Mathias Frank in the mountains. However, he is unlikely to lose any time deliberately and he may create a surprise. He is no great time triallist and will definitely lose time in stage 20 and it remains to be seen if he can recover enough to ride well for all three weeks. He is unlikely to win the white jersey but could be in the mix.

 

Simon Yates was a surprise inclusion on the Orica-GreenEDGE roster and he is very unlikely to focus on the overall standings. As usual, the Australian team is solely focused on stage wins and they have done nothing to hide that Yates is a part of those plans.

 

Nonetheless, the Brit has had a fantastic start to his neo-pro season and in the Vuelta al Pais Vasco he proved that he can already be up there in the WorldTour races. He had a setback when he broke his collarbone in the Tour of Turkey but is already back in good condition, having recently won the youth classification in the Tour de Slovenie and taken third in the British road race championships. At the moment, it is hard to see any limits to his potential and he could turn into a great grand tour rider in the future. This race, however, is probably not about the GC for the Brit and he will probably only be focusing on stage wins.

 

Ion Izagirre has gradually progressed from stage hunter to GC rider and this year he has finished in the top 10 of the Tour de Romandie to prove that he can now handle the hardest stage races. The Basque is an excellent time triallist who can defend himself in the mountains. In this race, however, he is mainly a key support rider for Alejandro Valverde and he is unlikely to get his own chance.

 

However, Valverde has so often been hampered by bad luck in this race and if the captain is not up for the challenge of contesting for the podium spots, Izagirre may get his chance. He is unlikely to be at the level of Pinot and Bardet on the climbs but the TT will be a clear advantage. He is probably not strong enough to win the jersey but a top 3 finish is within reach for the newly crowned Spanish champion.

 

Pinot, Bardet and Kwiatkowski are also among out top 15 overall favourites. You can read more detailed analyses of their chances here and here.

 

CyclingQuotes’ winner pick: Thibaut Pinot

Other winner candidates: Romain Bardet, Michal Kwiatkowski

Outsiders: Sebastien Reichenbach, Simon Yates, Ion Izagirre

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