Most of the sprinters finally got the chance to go head-to-head in today's stage and they all lick their lips in anticipation of what is to come in tomorrow's flat stage to Montpellier. However, stages into the Mediterranean city are always feared due to the high risk of crosswinds - just ask Christophe Moreau - and what should be a rather easy day in the saddle could turn into a drama with echelons, crashes and lost ambitions. Starting at 14.00, you can follow the stage on CyclingQuotes.com/live.
Tomorrow's sixth stage from Aix-en-Provence to Montpellier will doubtlessly be a nervous one as it brings the riders another 176,5km in a Westerly direction towards the Pyrenees. Stages finishing in the Mediterranean city are famously known for their potential to create echelons due to the strong Mistral wind. The last time that happened was in 2007 when Astana attacked into the crosswinds, thus putting an end to the GC aspirations of Christophe Moreau. The route is almost completely flat and only punctuated by a small category 4 climb near its midpoint and so we are certain to see a sprint finish in the end.
Whether the whole bunch will be present, will be determined by the wind but the nervousness could produce crashes, carnage and lost ambitions for race favourites as we saw it in Metz last year and in Chateauroux one year earlier. The final 2,5km only have a gradual bend to the left and a very slight incline after the passage of the flamme rouge, and we could very well see a big battle between the giants Kittel, Cavendish and Greipel if they have survived the potential selection made by the wind.
It won't be the terrain that will make the selection tomorrow and instead it will be up to the weather to create some drama. Forecasts predict that we could very well see some crosswind action. There should be a nice wind coming from a Northerly direction, meaning that the peloton will face a crosswind almost the entire day as they head towards the Pyrenees. The riders should enjoy a tailwind in the finale, turning to a cross-tailwind inside the final kilometer, and combined with the non-technical nature, this turns the sprint into a really powerful one.
At the same time, the heat that saw many riders struggle during the Corsican stages and the Nice time trial have returned after a day's absence, and tomorrow should be the hottest day so far. 30-degree temperatures and beautiful sunshine will wear down the riders and they'd better get used to it as it won't be much better in the coming days.
With the predicted wind, tomorrow could very well be one of the most nervous during the entire Tour de France as all GC riders and sprinters will fight to stay at the front whenever there is just the slightest change in direction. We could very well see some teams take the initiative and try to do what HTC-Highroad did in the stage to La Grande Motte in 2009 or Astana in the stage to Montpellier in 2007: blow the peloton into pieces by creating echelons in the crosswinds.
The tactics are applied constantly throughout a cycling season and most often the wind is not strong enough to have the wished outcome. Even if that would be the case tomorrow, the stage could very well end up having a significant impact on the final overall GC as the crashes that are almost inevitable, could break dreams of many riders. Last year, stage 6 was nicknamed the "Massacre in Metz" and this year's stage 6 could end up as a "Massacre in Montpellier" if the riders do not take sufficiently care.
The nervousness, Orica-GreenEdge's desire to do the jersey honour and the hard work by Lotto-Belisol, Omega Pharma-Quick Step and Argos-Shimano will of course make any breakaway attempt useless and we are guaranteed to see a sprint finish on Avenue de Vanieres. However, the most difficult part for the sprinters will be to get to the finish in the front group.
After today's splendid performance, Mark Cavendish stands out as the biggest favourite. Having been dropped as one of the very first riders on the Corsican climbs, he appeared to be at ease on the small hills towards the end of today's stage and it is evident that he has now overcome the effects of his bronchitis. Everybody knows how fast the Manxman is when he is at his best and if anyone had forgotten, today's performance should have reminded him. Cavendish always gets better and better throughout a grand tour and he will only get harder to beat from now on.
However, sprinting is not all about the sprinter himself and Cavendish has every reason to be hugely satisfied with his team today. Prior to the race, we doubted his team's ability to deliver their star sprinter in perfect position but today they proved us wrong. There is no doubt that the addition of Tony Martin and Niki Terpstra compared to the Giro line-up makes a huge difference.
Nonetheless, the team seemed to lose control with 1,5km to go as the world's best lead-out train from Lotto-Belisol hit the front. However, Matteo Trentin did a splendid effort to bring Omega Pharma-Quick Step back into the best possible position and despite a late surge by Greg Henderson, Gert Steegmans delivered Cavendish perfectly. If they can produce a similar performance tomorrow, Cavendish will be very hard to beat. At the same time, the team is known as maybe the best team in the world to handle crosswinds and so they should be able to bring their sprinter to the finish in the first group.
Cavendish's biggest rivals will once again be Marcel Kittel and Andre Greipel and especially Kittel appears to be extremely strong these days. Usually one of the first to get dropped on the climbs, the powerful German was positioned near the front on the late hills today and only an unfortunate crash took him out of contention.
Kittel also has one of the best lead-out trains in the world and Tom Veelers is a fantastic final lead-out man. At the same time, he is favoured by the nature of the sprint as the long straights and tailwind should make it one for the powerful riders. That will be an advantage for Kittel over the more aerodynamic Cavendish.
On the other hand, Kittel is not the most consistent sprinter and he has often lost the wheel of his lead-out riders in the finish. Cavendish is a much more sure bet but if Kittel is delivered perfectly, he could very well emerge as the fastest rider in a sprint like tomorrow's.
Greipel was hugely disappointed today as his team was about to put him into a very good position but the German sprinter messed it up himself. Adam Hansen and Marcel Sieberg took control but lost out to Omega Pharma-Quick Step when it would usually have been time for Jürgen Roelandts to up the pace even further. The Belgian - clearly far from his best - was, however, dropped on the final climbs and so Trentin managed to put Lotto on the back foot. Greg Henderson made a late surge and was about to put Greipel back into contention but the German had lost the wheel of his lead-out man and had to start his sprint from behind. At the same time, his kick was far from its usual level and the German was beaten by Edvald Boasson Hagen and Peter Sagan who should have no chance against Greipel in this kind of sprint.
Nonetheless, Greipel could still end up winning tomorrow's stage. His train should still be the best in the world and with Roelandts back in his usual position, Greipel could very well get the chance to start his sprint from the best position. Then it will be up to the German himself to improve on today's performance.
It is hard to see any other rider than one of the three sprinting giants take the win but if anyone should have a chance, it has to be Alexander Kristoff. The Katusha rider is not as fast as his three rivals and will mostly have to fend for himself in the sprints as the rest of the team is completely devoted to Joaquin Rodriguez. At the end of a hard race, Kristoff is, however, a very strong sprinter and tomorrow's stage could be a tough one due to the wind. In stage 1, he proved how far he can get by anticipating the sprint and if he times a similar move perfectly tomorrow, he could spur a surprise. He should have no problems handling the crosswinds but if Rodriguez gets into trouble, Kristoff will be forced to sacrifice his own chances.
Matthew Goss has been a mystery throughout the entire season. Usually one of the best climbers among the sprinters, the Australian was dropped as one of the first riders today and that performance comes on the heels of a number of disappointments during the early part of the year. Nonetheless, he still performed splendidly in the team time trial and his lead-out train is one of the best in the world. We doubt that he will win tomorrow's stage but if crosswinds reduce the number of rivals and his team puts him into perfect position, he could bounce back from his recent struggles with a podium finish.
Peter Sagan proved that he has overcome his injuries as he beat Greipel in today's sprint. In a flat power sprint that is a rare outcome but it shows that Sagan is ready to defend his green jersey just in time for these crucial sprint stages. Tomorrow, it will once again be a all about defending as he is unlikely to win the power sprint. He may not have the team to support him in case of echelons but the Slovakian is amazingly strong by himself and no one will catch him off-guard.
Usually, we would also mention Nacer Bouhanni in a stage like today's but the former French champion has been taken out by stomach problems and a crash. Instead, we will point to Danny Van Poppel, Juan Jose Lobato and Roberto Ferrari as riders that could mix it up in tomorrow's sprint.
Finally, Daryl Impey finished two positions higher than Gerrans in today's stage and so he only needs to finish 8 spots better than his teammate to take over the overall lead. Today Impey concentrated his efforts on keeping Gerrans safe in the finish but with Goss back in the mix, his role will be the one of final lead-out man. That could allow to finish high up the standings himself and take off the tunic from his teammate's shoulders.
CyclingQuotes' stage winner picks: Mark Cavendish, Marcel Kittel, Andre Greipel
Outsiders: Alexander Kristoff, Peter Sagan, Matthew Goss
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