The race favourites all survived the feared Corsican stages without suffering any serious incidents but now it is no longer just a question of survival. Tomorrow's team time trial offers the first opportunity for GC riders to gain time on each other and while the differences are likely to be limited, the psychological importance of the stage cannot be underestimated. Starting at 15.00, you can follow the stage in its entirety on CyclingQuotes.com/live.
The Corsican stages may have been hilly but have done nothing to separate the race favourites. That will all change in the 25km stage 4 team time trial which is held on a completely flat course in Nice. The route has a few corners but mostly consists of long, straight roads, thus making this one for the real time trial specialists, and it is completely different from the hilly, technical Giro team time trial that created quite a few surprises.
The route consists of a long run along the coast before a right-hand turn makes the riders head a little inland. At the halfway point, they turn around and head all the way back to finish on the famous Promenade d'Anglais. As has been common in recent years, organizers have chosen to avoid making the stage too long and the time differences on such short courses are usually not very big. The stage has some similarities with the most recent Tour de France team time trial in 2011 and on that occasion, only 12 second separated the first 7 teams while another 8 teams were inside a minute of the winning time set by Garmin.
The riders may have left Corsica but the weather won't change much. It should be another perfect day for bike racing with plenty of sunshine and temperatures just below the 25-degree mark. There will only be a very light wind which should blow against the riders when they have turned around at head back towards the coast and there should be no difference in weather conditions for the teams.
Prior to the Grand Depart, defending world champions Omega Pharma-Quick Step were the favourites to take the win as the team has a splendid line-up for the discipline. Tony Martin has been back at his 2011 level throughout the early part of the season and at his best, he is almost capable of winning team time trials by himself. His performance at the Tirreno-Adriatico showed just how important the world time trial champion is in the collective discipline, and the flat, powerful course suits him perfectly. Backed by time trial specialists like Peter Velits - recent winner of the Slovakian national championships - an in-form Sylvain Chavanel - recent winner of the French national championships - an in-form Michal Kwiatkowski - recent runner-up at the Polish national championships and Niki Terpstra - recent runner-up at the Dutch national championships - Martin leads a formidable team in the discipline.
However, Martin crashed hard in stage one and suffered multiple injuries, among those a contusion to his left lung which reduces his lung capacity. At the same time, Terpstra went down today, Gert Steegmans took a tumble in stage one and Mark Cavendish suffers from antibiotics. In general, the Belgian team has been hit by plenty of bad luck.
Maryin has been pleasantly surprised by his feelings on the bike and today he even managed to survive the final climb, giving teammate Kwiatkowski a perfect lead-out. Kwiatkowski and Chavanel have proved that they are in splendid condition at the moment, and the Pole will have the added incentive of being in the position to take over the yellow jersey if his team wins. It will certainly be a close battle but with Martin on the mend, we still regard Omega Pharma-Quick Steo to be the favourites.
Their biggest challengers are likely to be Garmin-Sharp which has a team consisting of 8 solid time triallists and a tiny climber. David Millar is evidently riding strongly these days, having survived rather tough climbs in recent days, and Rohan Dennis proved his strength by finishing 2nd in the Dauphiné time trial ahead of riders like Chris Froome, Kwiatkowski and Richie Porte. Andrew Talansky has placed in the top 10 in WorldTour time trials numerous times while Christian Vande Velde and Tom Danielson are both solid time triallists. It may not be Ryder Hesjedal's best discipline but the Canadian still knows how to handle a time trial bike and Ramunas Navardauskas and Jack Bauer are both powerful riders on flat roads. Only Daniel Martin stand out as the weak point in the line-up that has by far the deepest strength in numbers.
The American team has always put much emphasis on the discipline and is keen to defend its crown as reigning "Tour de France team time trial kings". At the same time, they would love to ride veteran Millar into his second ever yellow jersey. Team boss Jonathan Vaughters thought that the many climbers in the line-up would be a disadvantage in the team time trial but has been pleasantly surprised by the numbers during the training sessions.
Team Sky also has a fantastic team for the stage and is the third and final team with a realistic chance of taking the win. However, one of the team's key riders, Geraint Thomas, suffered a fractured pelvis in his stage one crash and has evidently suffered during the last two days. He is unlikely to make much contribution tomorrow and so the team is left with effectively 8 riders which will make it very hard to win.
At the same time, another of the team's strong time triallists, Kanstantsin Siutsou, has appeared to be struggling in recent days and if the Belarusian has not improved, it will be another huge blow to the team's chances.
Nonetheless, Chris Froome, Richie Porte, worlds bronze medallist Vasil Kiryienka, Edvald Boasson Hagen, Ian Stannard and Peter Kennaugh form a strong squad of time triallists and there is certainly plenty of horsepower in the team. The British team should still be able to finish among the best and Froome will be eager to gain some early time on his rivals while Boasson Hagen could ride himself into yellow.
Orica-GreenEdge has made team time trials one of their specialties, winning at the Eneco Tour and Tirreno-Adriatico last year. Svein Tuft is an extremely powerful rider and time trial specialists Cameron Meyer, Brett Lancaster and Daryl Impey all add up to form a really strong team. However, the squad has clearly not made the team time trial its main priority during its selection process and we doubt that the team has the strength in numbers to take the win.
On paper, BMC may not have a team of specialists but an almost identical team managed to finish 2nd behind Garmin in 2011. The team is extremely homogenous and with the added firepower of Tejay Van Garderen to a line-up consisting of powerful riders like Manuel Quinziato, Michael Schär, Brent Bookwalter, Cadel Evans and Michael Schär, the team should not be too far off the mark, thus putting Evans in the perfect position to achieve his GC goals.
Team Saxo-Tinkoff faces an important test tomorrow and the Danish team has a really strong line-up for the stage. Alberto Contador, Michael Rogers and Daniele Bennati have all won time trials in the past and Roman Kreuziger, Sergio Paulinho and Matteo Tosatto are all powerful riders. They are unlikely to win but should be able to limit their losses to main rivals Sky.
On paper, Movistar may not have the strongest squad of individual time triallists but the team has placed much emphasis on the team event in recent years and the improvements are evident. With Jonathan Castroviejo as the driving force, the team won last year's opening Vuelta stage and they finished 2nd in the Giro team time trial which was , however, of a completely different nature. Castroviejo, Andrey Amador, Rui Costa, Ruben Plaza and Jose Ivan Gutierrez all know how to time trial and we should see another fine performance from the Spanish squad.
Finally, the Radioshack team of race leader Jan Bakelants deserves a mention. The Belgian himself, Andreas Klöden, Jens Voigt, Maxime Monfort, Markel Irizar and Tony Gallopin have all performed well in time trials in the past, and the team should not be too far off the mark. However, they probably lack the really powerful rider that could make them realistically contend for the win and Bakelants is very likely to lose the jersey tomorrow.
CyclingQuotes' stage winner picks: Omega Pharma-Quick Step, Garmin-Sharp, Sky
Outsiders: Orica-GreenEdge, BMC, Movistar
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