Today the sprinters had a tough day in the saddle in the Yorkshire hills but they all had a big incentive to get through the suffering. Tomorrow’s final stage on British soil will offer the fast finishers the perfect chance to battle it out in one of the most beautiful venues on The Mall in front of the Buckingham Palace in London.

 

The course

After a day of suffering, the sprinters will be back in the spotlight on the third day which should offer a very prestigious bunch sprint in the center of London. At just 155km and with no categorized climbs, the stage from Cambridge to the English capital is one of the easiest stages of the entire race but due to its grandiose surroundings, it will be a perfect way to bring the British adventure to a conclusion.

 

The stage consists of a predominantly southerly run from the city with the famous university to London, with the riders making a few deviations from the direct route to accumulate racing kilometres. There is virtually no elevation gain along the way and only the wind could potentially create some kind of challenge in the early part of the stage. The only highlight comes 47km from the finish when the riders contest the intermediate sprint in Epping-Forest which is a flat, straight affair that suits the real sprinters.

 

The final 25km all take place in the city of London and its suburbs, meaning that the wind is unlikely to play a role in the final part. The riders travel to the airport in the eastern part of the city. The final 15km follow a mostly straight, flat road along the Thames in a westerly direction to the city centre where all is set for a great finale in front of the Buckingham Palace. The riders take a sharp right-hand turn to leave the river just after the 2km to go mark and then a straight road leads to the final two corners inside the final kilometre. It all comes to an end on an almost completely flat, 460m finishing straight on The Mall.

 

 

 

 

The weather

Going into the British stages, the weather was an unknown factor that could make some already tricky stages even harder. Until now, however, the riders have been greeted by great conditions and tomorrow it should again stay dry.

 

However, there won’t be much sunshine as it will be a very cloudy day and it won’t be very hot either. The temperature at the finish in London is expected to reach a maximum of 18 degrees.

 

There will be a moderate wind from a southwesterly direction which means that the riders will have a crosswind tin the first part before turning into a cross-headwind. After the feed zone, it will be a headwind all the way to London while it will be a cross-headwind in the final section along the Thames. The two turns inside the final kilometre will bring the riders onto the finishing straight where there will be a tailwind.

 

The favourites

The first stage of the race was the big goal for Mark Cavendish but the Brit was always expected to have a big chance to take revenge in stage 3 if he would fail to reach his main objective. A bunch sprint on The Mall was the perfect venue for the local hero to please his British fans and he also make amends for his disappointment in the 2012 London Olympics.

 

Cavendish is now out of the race and so there will be no chance that the British public can celebrate a local winner at the end of the flat 155km. However, Cavendish’s absence will do nothing to change the scenario as this stage is destined to end in a bunch sprint.

 

Going into the race, Lotto-Belisol, Giant-Shimano and Omega Pharma-Quick Step were expected to share the workload in the sprint stages but now the latter team will obviously take a back seat. For the former two teams, however, the sprint stages are one of their big targets – for Giant-Shimano it is almost their only objective – and so there is no chance that they will let this opportunity slip away. It may be a pretty short stage but the sprint teams will be assisted by a headwind which will make it much harder for the escapees to make it to the finish.

 

Everyone knows that this is a clear sprint stage and nowadays very few teams are willing to spend any unnecessary energy on those days. Tomorrow there are not even KOM points on offer and so the only incentive to go on the attack is to get some airtime. We can expect 2-3 riders to attack straight from the gun and they will probably be allowed to go right from the start. It would be no bad guess that Bretagne and Cofidis are part of the action but otherwise it is hard to see which teams have any interest in wasting energy on this stage.

 

In such a short stage, the sprint teams won’t take any unnecessary risks and so the escapees will probably not be granted a big advantage. Very early, Giant-Shimano and Lotto-Belisol will take control and we can expect the likes of Cheng Ji, Dries Devenyns, Lars Bak and Bart De Clercq to spend a lot of time on the front for most of the day. Astana will probably not have to do much to defend Nibali’s yellow jersey and will be pleased to take a backseat.

 

Apart from some action in the intermediate sprint, we should be in for a straightforward sprint stage. The sprint is located pretty close to the finish which means that most sprinters won’t even contest it. Peter Sagan, André Greipel and maybe Bryan Coquard are probably the only riders that will make any effort to pick up points as Marcel Kittel has clearly shown that the green jersey is not a priority for him.

 

All is set for a big bunch sprint on the Mall and the sprint will be characterized by three facts. First of all, there are two turns inside the final kilometre – the final one is a roundabout – and as the finishing straight is only 460m long, it will be important to be in a good position going into those two key points. Seconly, there will be a tailwind and the finishing straight is even slightly downhill which means that this will be a very fast sprint suiting the real power sprinters. Finally, it’s a pretty wide road which means that there will be more room to find a gap and so positioning is less important than it would have been on a narrow road.

 

All aspects suit Marcel Kittel perfectly. All year the big German has proved that he is the fastest rider in the world and in a real power sprint he is virtually unbeatable. He could probably not have designed a better sprint as the slightly descending finishing straight and the tailwind means that he can benefit maximally from his incredible power.

 

At the same time, he is supported by a formidable team. Last year Lotto-Belisol had the strongest lead-out train in the world but this year the Belgian team has not been firing on all cylinders. This was again evident in stage one where Greipel’s team was on the back foot while Giant-Shimano timed everything perfectly. In that stage, they even missed Tom Veelers who was not suited to the hilly finale but tomorrow they will be back at full strength.

 

The combination Curvers-De Kort-Degenkolb-Veelers-Kittel only gets stronger and stronger and at the moment they seem to be better than their rivals. It would be no surprise if they dominate the finale and if they deliver Kittel on the front he will be impossible to beat.

 

In the Giro, their lead-outs failed but in that race they didn’t have the A team at their disposal. Even if they fail again in tomorrow’s stage, Kittel will still have plenty of opportunities. With a wide finishing straight and a tailwind, he can allow himself to sprint from afar and it will be easy to find an opening even if he is poorly positioned. Being the fastest rider, he should be able to win even if his team fails to deliver him perfectly like they did yesterday.

 

Kittel’s biggest rival is André Greipel who is not only the second fastest rider in the peloton but also has a very strong team at his disposal. Last year the train Hansen-Sieberg-Roelandts-Henderson-Greipel dominated the finales and if they are back at their past level, they definitely have the chance to deliver Greipel to a win.

 

As said, however, they have not been at 100% yet. In stage one, they were missing Henderson in the finale as the Kiwi was not feeling well. In tomorrow’s easier finish, he should be back in his usual position just in front of Greipel and that will be a definite advantage. The team still hasn’t shown that they can find back to their 2013 level but if they can, Greipel could again benefit from excellent teamwork to take the win.

 

Arnaud Demare doesn’t seem to be at 100% and has been struggling a lot in the first two stages. However, the fast Frenchman is usually very strong in these easy sprint stages that finish on a big avenue in a major city. He has beaten some of the world’s fastest sprinters in the final stage of the Tour of Qatar twice and tomorrow he can again make use of his very high top speed.

 

Demare’s main disadvantage is his team. The FDJ train has come a long way over the last few years but they are still not able to match the likes of Giant-Shimano and Lotto-Belisol. William Bonnet and Mickael Delage are both capable lead-out men but they have a big task as Demare is usually pretty poor at positioning. He will benefit from the wide finishing straight which will make it easier to get back but there is a big chance that he will lose out due to his position. If he finds an opening, however, he is one of the select few who have the speed to win the stage.

 

Bryan Coquard has been sprinting really well in this race and it is definitely no surprise to see him mix it up with the best. It is a well-known fact that he is one of the fastest in the business but he has rarely had the chance to prove his skills. The Europcar sprinter usually positions himself very poorly and this has often taken him out of the game. Even though he has Kevin Reza and Yohann Gene at his side, he doesn’t have the strongest team at his disposal and this will make things difficult for him. The wide finishing straight will make it a bit easier for him though and he is one of the riders who are fast enough to win.

 

Peter Sagan is not fast enough to beat the likes of Kittel and Greipel in this kind of finish which is all about speed. The Slovakian knows his limitations and will probably be more concerned about the points classification than the stage victory. Hence, he is very likely to finish in the top 3 – mostly because he positions himself perfectly – but the win is probably beyond his reach. Nonetheless, a lot of things can go wrong in a sprint and if the major favourites miss out, Sagan will be ready to strike.

 

The same can be said for Alexander Kristoff. The Norwegian is no pure sprinter for these finales and it will be hard for him to beat his faster rivals. On the other hand, he is very consistent and usually positions himself really well. For Katusha, the sprints are the main targets in this race and so he has a very strong team to support him. A lot of things have to come together for him to win but no one can rule out the Norwegian.

 

Finally, we will select our jokers. Omega Pharma-Quick Step have to find a new strategy after the loss of Cavendish and they still have a very powerful sprint train. The main question is whether they will ride for Mark Renshaw or Alessandro Petacchi as both are very capable sprinters. The Italian doesn’t seem to be at 100% and so we expect them to give Renshaw his chance. The Australian usually positions himself very well and this sprint suits him pretty well. He is unlikely to win the stage but could finish in the top 3.

 

Youngster Danny Van Poppel is riding his second Tour de France and he has been sprinting consistently well all season. With the likes of Gregory Rast and Fabian Cancellara to support him in the finale, he can count on a massive amount of experience and firepower and the trio worked well together in the Tour de Suisse. Van Poppel is unlikely to win the stage but a top 5 finish is within his reach.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Marcel Kittel

Other winner candidates: André Greipel, Arnaud Demare

Outsiders: Bryan Coquard, Peter Sagan, Alexander Kristoff

Jokers: Mark Renshaw, Danny Van Poppel, Alessandro Petacchi