The GC battle is over but the sprinters still haven't decided their most important stage. No sprint is more hotly contested than the one on the Champs-Elysees and a sprinter's palmares is not complete without a victory on the famous Parisian boulevard. This time the setting will even be more beautiful than ever as the sprint will play out in light darkness as the Tour celebrates the conclusion of its 100th edition with an evening stage. Starting at 17.45, you can follow the festive stage in its entirety on CyclingQuotes.com/live.
ASO had the task of coming up with a spectacular finish to the 100th edition of the race and that was never an easy one. At one point, it was rumoured that the race was set to finish at the top of the Alpe d'Huez but that was of course never likely to happen. Instead, the organizers chose to keep with tradition by ending their race with a rather short 133,5km stage in the outskirts of Paris, finishing with the usual 10 laps on a slightly modified finishing circuit in the heart of Paris.
To offer the required spectacle, the organizers have included two features that make it an unusual experience despite its apparent familiarity. Firstly, the stage will start in front of the famous Versailles castle, thus offering some fantastic opportunities for the photographers. Secondly, the stage will be held in the evening with the departure set for 17.45 and the expected bunch sprint will end the race no sooner than 21.30. It may take something away from the after-party but it will be truly spectacular to see the riders race in light darkness (sunset will be at 21.44).
From the start in Versailles, the riders will make a short loop in the outskirts of Paris to tackle two category 4 climbs that will have no bearing on the final mountains classification (Cote de Saint-Remy-les-Chevreuse, 1km, 6,9% and Cote de Chateaufort, 0,9km, 4,7%). Having finished that loop, they will head towards the heart of Paris where they will enter the finishing circuit after 64km of racing before crossing the finish line 1,5km further down the road. From there, they will cover the circuit - which is between 6,5km and 7km long - 10 times with the intermediate sprint coming 1km into the fourth lap. Compared to previous years, the circuit has been slightly modified as the riders won't turn around in front of the Arc de Triomphe, instead going all the way around the big roundabout that surround the famous building. However, there is no change to the finishing straight and as usual, the peloton will negotiate a right-hand turn just 400m from the line. As is well-known, the sprint is slightly uphill and the surface is cobbled.
When ASO planned this evening stage, they surely hoped that they would get to show off Paris at nighttime on a beautiful sunny day and those dreams will be fulfilled. What has been a very hot edition of the Tour de France will finish in similar fashion as there should be bright sunshine throughout the entire stage. When the peloton leaves Versailles, the temperature will be 28 degrees, dropping slightly to 26 degrees for the evening finish. There will be almost no wind with only a very light breeze coming from an eastern direction. Hence, the riders should enjoy an almost unnoticeable tailwind on the finishing straight.
There's no reason to make much of a discussion of the early proceedings of the stage. It will pan out as it usually does with the first part raced at a leisurely pace while the riders enjoy the time to congratulate each other, take a sip from a champagne glass and pose for the photographers. Froome, Sagan, Quintana and Talansky will move ahead for a short while to make the usual photo shots of the four distinctive jerseys and Quintana, Froome or Rolland could make some kind of show on the two climbs.
Racing gets serious when the peloton approaches the finishing circuit as Team Sky will take control and gradually pick up the pace before the first passage of the finish line. Last year George Hincapie was allowed to cross the line as the first rider as he was about to finish his final Tour and this year the same honour could go to Jens Voigt who has announced that he is unlikely to return for another edition.
From then, it will be full-on racing and we should see the first attacks being launched shortly after the first passage. A breakaway is likely to gain some ground but rarely gets more than a minute. As Omega Pharma-Quick Step, Argos-Shimano and Lotto-Belisol all have their eyes firmly fixed on a bunch sprint, it won't be in 2013 that a rider does what Alexandre Vinokourov was the most recent to do: hold off the sprinters on the Champs-Elysees.
The sprinters last battled in Tours on July 11 and so they have waited a full 10 days for the next opportunity to show off their speed. The tough mountain stages mean that fatigue have started to set in for both sprinters and their lead-out trains. Hence, one cannot expect the sprint hierarchy to be the same as it was earlier in the race.
Mark Cavendish has won four times in a row on the famous boulevard and will do his utmost to keep his winning streak alive and remain unbeaten on the famous venue. It is no coincidence that he has had so much success in the final stage of the Tour. First of all, he has been the fastest sprinter in the race those 4 years and secondly, he simply has a better recovery than most other sprinters and usually gets better and better as a grand tour goes on. Finally, the slightly uphill sprint and the short finishing straight both suit his explosive sprinting style.
However, this edition has been far tougher than usual for the Manxman. As we have claimed ever since our stage 1 preview, he is not the fastest sprinter in this year's race and Marcel Kittel proved us right when he overcame the Brit in a head-to-head battle in Tours. While he has been challenged on his finishing speed, his lead-out train has also been clearly defeated by his rival trains.
In regard to overcoming the latter difficulty, he had a good day yesterday. Kittel's lead-out man Tom Veelers abandoned the race, clearly fatigued after a number of hard days in the mountains. A little later, one of the crucial elements of Andre Greipel's famous Lotto lead-out train, Marcel Sieberg, crashed and broke his collarbone, thus leaving the formidable formation severely weakened.
The importance of a good lead-out cannot be underestimated in a tricky sprint like tomorrow's where the many corners mean that positioning is crucial. The Omega Pharma-Quick Step riders have learnt that they need to stay more patient than they did in the earlier stages where they completely failed to put their sprinter into a good position and only late surges by lead-out man Gert Steegmans made it possible for Cavendish to finish in one of the top positions.
However, patience may not be enough. The train still lacks riders with the top speed required to battle with the well-drilled lead-out trains of Lotto-Belisol and Argos-Shimano. We would be very surprised if Cavendish is the first sprinter to get through the final turn and he is likely to have some ground to make up. On the other hand, his good recovery has allowed him to be stronger on the climbs in recent days after his struggles earlier in the race.
Had Sieberg still been in the race, we would not be in doubt that Greipel would be the sprinter to first get through the final turn. His lead-out train has come out triumphant on all occasions but now they lack a crucial element as Sieberg has usually been the rider to keep the other trains at bay as they pass the flamme rouge. That job will now be left to Adam Hansen who doesn't have Sieberg's top speed while Jurgen Roelandts and Greg Henderson - as usual - will be the final two riders to lead out Greipel.
We would still expect Lotto to win the battle but Argos-Shimano have not been that far off and could make it this time by virtue of the weakened Lotto train. Veelers' absence will be felt but Koen De Kort will step into the role of final lead-out man and he will be no bad replacement, having delivered John Degenkolb to five stage wins in last year's Vuelta. With Degenkolb and Tom Dumoulin playing crucial roles a little earlier in the train, this could be the time for Argos-Shimano to dominate the sprint.
Kittel has shown that he is the fastest sprinter in this race. Furthermore, he has overcome his tendency to fade as stage races go on. He has been amazingly strong in the very hard third week, even finishing in the top 50 in the very hard final time trial and getting dropped very late on the climbs. During the two most recent stages, he has appeared to struggle a little more but we still expect him to be the strongest sprinter in the race. If he gets through the final turn as the first sprinter or in De Kort's wheel just a couple of positions behind either Greipel or Cavendish, he should win the sprint. Due to Sieberg's absence, his chances are greater and he will be our stage winner pick tomorrow.
It would be a bad idea to rule out Cavendish for tomorrow but he needs to start his sprint ahead of Kittel if he wants to make it five in a row. Argos-Shimano have also been weakened and so it could happen but it will be far more difficult than it has been in recent years where he has been given a textbook lead-out.
Greipel completely missed out on the famous boulevard last year and he will be extremely eager to take his revenge. He has been really strong in the most recent mountain stages and appears to still be very fresh. His main strength is his lead-out train and if they overcome the loss of Sieberg to still launch him perfectly, he certainly has a chance of taking his second stage win. The uphill sprint suits him well.
It is hard to imagine that the stage winner should not be one of the three sprinting giants but other sprinters could still mix it up for the podium spots. Peter Sagan may not be the fastest sprinter but this is really a sprint for the Slovakian. First of all, he has a formidable recovery and should be less fatigued than his rivals. Secondly, the uphill sprint suits him well. Finally, he is excellent in the battle for positions and despite the lack of a lead-out train, he could very well find himself in the wheel of the sprinter that he prefers. It is no coincidence that he finished 2nd behind Cavendish last year and he could very well get into the top 3 again tomorrow.
Few have even noticed that Matthew Goss has been part of the race as the Australian was ill early on and was hampered by crashes when he finally recovered. Actually, he has only had the chance to contest a sprint without disruptions once and on that occasion he lost the wheel of his final lead-out man Daryl Impey. He has a very good team to support him tomorrow and it will be all for Goss in the Orica-GreenEdge camp. He appears to have recovered well from his efforts and has been dropped far later than the other sprinters in the mountain stages.
Finally, we will point to Roberto Ferrari. The Lampre sprinter is an excellent competitor when it comes to the battle for position and the short finishing straight suits his explosive acceleration well. Usually, he struggles at the end of a grand tour but this time he appears to still have something left and has handled the climbs really well. He claims to feel better than at any earlier point in the season and with the support from Davide Cimolai and Elia Favilli, he should not be too far off the mark.
CyclingQuotes' stage winner picks: Marcel Kittel, Mark Cavendish, Andrel Greipel
Outsiders: Peter Sagan, Matthew Goss, Roberto Ferrari
That's it for our stage previews for now. We hope you have enjoyed them. Make sure to check our site again again as we will have overall previews for all WorldTour races and select races on the European Tour and also daily stage previews at the Vuelta and other select WorldTour races.
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