The battle for the podium places is over and for the GC riders, there is only celebration left in this year’s Tour de France. For the sprinters, however, the most prestigious stage is still up for grabs as every fast finisher dreams about adding the final stage on the Champs-Elysees to his palmares.

 

The course

This year’s course may include a few novelties but there is nothing new on the final day of the race. As usual, the race comes to an end with a largely ceremonial stage to Paris where the sprinters will get the chance to battle it out on the Champs-Élysées in the most prestigious stage for a fast finisher.

 

Tomorrow moring the riders will travel from the southwestern part of France to the southern suburbs of Paris for the final day of racing that follows a very traditional format. The stage usually starts a bit south of the capital and then makes a small loop in the area – often with one or two small categorized climbs to finalize the battle for the KOM jersey – before the riders head towards the city centre. Here they do a number of laps of the famous circuit on the Champs-Élysées, very often ending with a big bunch sprint.

 

This year’s stage starts in Évry just south of Paris and as usual the distance is rather short. At just 137.5km, the route makes a small loop in a westerly direction to go up the Cote de Briis-sous-Forges (category 4, 800m, 5.2%) after 31km of racing. Otherwise the terrain is almost completely flat as the riders continue towards the centre of Paris.

 

After 81.5km of racing, they enter the city circuit and 1.5km further up the road, they cross the line for the first time. The stage ends with 8 laps of the circuit that brings them up and down the famous avenue. One of the novelties for last year’s race that was introduced to mark the 100th edition, was the fact that the riders went all the way around the Arc de Triomphe instead of doing a 180-degree turn in front of it. This adjustment to the circuit will be maintained in 2014 but the stage won’t finish late in the evening as it did one year ago. It will still finish later than usual though as the arrival is scheduled around 19.15 local time.

 

The Champs-Elysées is cobbled and not flat as it ramps slightly upwards. The intermediate sprint will be contested at the highest point of the avenue on the second lap when 46.5km still remain. The final sprint is well-known by all the riders and pretty technical as there are two 90-degree turns just before the flamme rouge. Inside the final kilometre, two sweeping turns lead onto the short 400m finishing straight that is slightly uphill.

 

Last year Marcel Kittel won a very close battle of the titans as he narrowly held off André Greipel and Marck Cavendish in a  very exciting sprint. By doing that, he brought Mark Cavendish’s winning streak to an end as the Brit won the final stage four years in a row from 2009 to 2012. Before the Brit started to dominate the stage, Gert Steegmans, Daniele Bennati and Thor Hushovd won bunch sprints while the sprinters were last foiled in 2005 when Alexandre Vinokourov took a hugely surprising victory with a late attack.

 

 

 

 

 

The weather

Almost all sprint finishes in this year’s Tour have been marred by bad weather. Luckily it seems that the riders will be spared the rain on the cobbles in Paris that can be very slippery in wet conditions. It will be a partly cloudy day and with a temperature of 28 degrees, it will be a pretty hot day too.

 

There will be a moderate wind from a northwesterly direction which means that the riders will first have a headwind and then a cross-headwind as they travel towards the centre of Paris. On the finishing straight, they will have a headwind as they go up towards the Arc de Triomphe and a tailwind as they descen back towards the Place de la Concorde. Hence, it will be a headwind sprint.

 

The favourites

One of the exciting things about bike-racing is its unpredictability but one race is celebrated and famous for its predictable outcome. While the Tour de France is loaded with surprises and unexpected outcomes, everybody knows what will happen on the final day which is a day of celebration and paying tribute to the brave riders that have completed the hardest race of the world.

 

There will be no surprises in the early part of the race which takes place in a festive and relaxed atmosphere. In the 10km neutral zone and in the long opening run through the Parisian suburbs, there will be plenty of time to chat to the colleagues, congratulate each other, taking the traditional photos of the top 3 riders and the distinctive jersey holders and even take a glass of champagne. Vincenzo Nibali will be riding prominently near the front and his rivals will all move up to congratulate him with the win and pay tribute to his great exploits.

 

When the riders get closer to Paris, things will gradually get more serious and it is traditionally the job of the race leader’s team to pick up the pace and make sure that things don’t get too lazy. Astana will patrol the front and as they get closer to the city centre, things will get more serious and the speed a lot faster.

 

By the time, they hit the Champs-Elysees for the first time, the pace will be fully up to racing standards and now the riders will have turned their race faces on to provide the many spectators with a very fast criterium-like race in the French capital. Very often, one of the veterans who is doing is last Tour, has been allowed to lead the peloton across the line for the first time and it would be no surprise if Jens Voigt will be the first rider to start the 8 laps of the finishing circuit.

 

From there, the race will be a very fast affair and it won’t take much more than an hour for the riders to do the final 54.5km of the race. Even though they all know that their efforts are likely to be in vain, many riders are keen to go on the attack on the famous avenue and the racing is usually pretty aggressive.

 

Usually, a break goes clear in one of the first two laps but the sprint teams always make sure that it is not too big. They rarely gain much more than 30 seconds of advantage as the race is so short that no one dares to allow a few fresh legs to get too much leeway. Hence, we can expect to see Giant-Shimano and probably Lotto Belisol hit the front as soon as the break takes off and make sure that the break doesn’t get too far ahead.

 

It will be interesting to see how teams like Lotto Belisol and Katusha handle the race. Marcel Kittel is the overwhelming favourite and they all know that the German will be unbeatable if he gets the perfect lead-out from his teammates. The only way to beat Kittel is probably by tiring out his team a bit earlier and this may include taking a few risks by putting the pressure on Giant-Shimano to bring back the early break. The Dutch team is down to only 8 riders and will be keen to save their energy for the lead-out.

 

Until now, Giant-Shimano have often been allowed to hide in the peloton for a long time as Lotto Belisol have been doing most of the chase work late in the stages. This time the Belgian team may consider forcing Giant into action a bit earlier by taking a few risks in the finale. Katusha have proved that they can play it very cool in the finales and there will definitely be a huge tactical battle between the sprint teams.

 

However, this fight will probably not be enough to prevent a bunch sprint and history shows that it is almost impossible to deny the sprinters on the most famous cycling avenue. Tomorrow won’t be the day that breaks the tradition and we expect it all to come down to the biggest bunch sprint of the season.

 

A few factors characterize the sprint on the Champs-Elysees that are well-known to most of the sprinters. First of all, it comes at the end of three weeks of hard racing which means that fatigue plays a big role and the hierarchy may not be the same as it was at the start of the race. On the other hand, the stage is so short and easy that the sprinters are usually all pretty fresh by the time they launch their sprint.

 

Secondly, there is a turn pretty close to the finish which means that lead-out and positioning are crucial and you can win a lot by being the first sprinter through the final turn. On the other hand, the avenue is very wide which means that it is hard to get boxed in and there is plenty of room to move up in the finale, meaning that top speed counts for a lot. Finally, the finishing straight is slightly uphill which suits some sprinters more than others.

 

However, none of these factors can prevent Marcel Kittel from being the overwhelming favourite. All year he has proved that he is the fastest rider in the peloton when he gets a clear run to the line and the way he won stages in the Giro and in the early part of the Tour proves that he is a class of his own when it comes to top speed.

 

The main question for Kittel is his level of recovery. Some of his rival sprinters have definitely had an easier time in the mountains but last year he finished his first grand tour and proved that he is strong enough to maintain his power at the end of three weeks when he beat Cavendish and Greipel in a direct battle on the Champs-Elysees.

 

This year nothing suggests that he is not at the same level. He claims to be pretty fresh and his performances in the mountains back up this assessment. In fact he has been able to hang onto the peloton for a long time in the Pyrenees and he has never been close to missing the time cut. He may have been dropped on the final climb in yesterday’s stage but that was not too indicative of his form as the team had made a pre-race plan to ride for John Degenkolb.

 

Kittel’s main asset is of course his great lead-out team which proved its class when it completely dominated the sprint in London. If they can repeat that kind of effort tomorrow, no one will come even close to beating Kittel.

 

On the other hand, they have been unable to repeat that feat since stage 3 and when Kittel won stage 4 it was a result more of his own speed than his team’s power. At the moment, Omega Pharma-Quick Step seems to be the strongest team in the sprint finales but Giant-Shimano should not be too far off the mark.

 

The finishing straight is pretty wide and there will be plenty of room for Kittel to move up. He has proved that he is also one of the strongest in uphill sprints and tomorrow’s sprint should suit him well. Unless he is very far back in the final turn, he will be almost impossible to beat.

 

His biggest rival should be André Greipel. When it comes to top speed, the German is definitely number two in the Tour hierarchy but he has not had a lot of chances to prove his skills as he has been set back by so much bad luck in this race. Yesterday he was again held up in a crash but the way he handled the late climb proves that he is still pretty fresh.

 

For him to beat Kittel, Greipel needs to be brought into a better position by his team but the usually strong Lotto Belisol train has not been firing on all cylinders in this race. They miss Greg Henderson dearly but Jurgen Roelandts and Marcel Sieberg still have lots of firepower. If they can position Greipel on Mark Renshaw’s wheel in a finale that is likely to be dominated by Omega Pharma-Quick Step, Greipel could take the biggest win of his career.

 

A pure sprint at the end of an easy stage is definitely not one for Alexander Kristoff but at the end of a grand tour, things may be a bit different than usual. Among the fast finishers, Kristoff seems to be the freshest and his two stage wins underline his status as one of the fastest sprinters in the bunch. He is excellent at positioning himself and it would be no surprise to see him on Renshaw’s wheel in the finale. The uphill finishing straight suits him well and recent sprints prove that the Norwegian is hard to pass at the moment.

 

Arnaud Demare has not had a lot of luck in this race and he is clearly very fatigued. On the other hand, tomorrow’s sprint comes at the end of a very easy stage and this should give him a chance. When it comes to top speed, Demare is one of the fastest riders in this race and he has proved that he is one of the best riders for this kind of big sprints on wide avenues at the end of easy races. The uphill finishing straight suits him perfectly and with a wide finishing straight, he will not be set back too much by his poor positioning skills. He will be very keen to save his Tour de France with a great sprint in Paris with the French champion’s jersey on his shoulders.

 

Mark Renshaw is definitely not the fastest sprinter in the race but he has the best lead-out. Omega Pharma-Quick Step have dominated the sprints in this race and this has been a big advantage for Renshaw. It will be hard for him to hold off all of his faster rivals but he is likely to be the one to start the sprint from the best position. On a relatively short finishing straight, this should provide him with a great chance.

 

Bryan Coquard is one of the freshest sprinters at this point of the race and even today he did a great time trial. On paper he is one of the fastest sprinters in the race and he has generally been able to overcome his poor positioning abilities. The uphill finishing straight suits him well and if Kevin Reza manages to drop him off in one of the best positions he could win the stage.

 

This is definitely not a sprint for Peter Sagan and it will be very hard for him to take that elusive stage win tomorrow. The race is way too easy for him and when it comes to top speed, he can’t match the likes of Kittel and Greipel. On the other hand, he can allow himself to ride less conservatively than usual as the green jersey is already his. He is the best rider when it comes to positioning and so no one can rule out the Slovakian.

 

Finally, we will select our jokers. Romain Feillu has had a few difficult seasons but over the last months he has been getting better and better. In this race, he has actually been riding really well and has proved that he is one of the fastest riders in the race. With riders like Anthony Delaplace, Armindo Fonseca and Floria Vachon to position him for the final sprint, a top 5 result is definitely within his reach.

 

Ramunas Navardauskas is no pure sprinter but as he proved yesterday he is one of the strongest riders in the race. With his very unusual sprinting style, he has taken several top 10 finishes in the sprints, mostly because of his great ability to position himself. Tomorrow’s sprint should not suit him too badly and this should see him be in the mix.

 

Sky have not had much success in this race and tomorrow their only card to play is Bernhard Eisel. The Austrian doesn’t do a lot of sprints these days and he is definitely not one of the fastest riders. On the other hand, he has a vast experience and he has one of the best lead-out men. If Geraint Thomas managed to position him well, Eisel could finish in the top 10.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Marcel Kittel

Other winner candidates: André Greipel, Alexander Kristof

Outsiders: Arnaud Demare, Mark Renshaw, Bryan Coquard, Peter Sagan

Jokers: Romain Feillu, Ramunas Navardauskas, Bernhard Eisel