The waiting is finally over! Ever since the unveiling of the unique Corsican stages that will kick of this year's Tour de France, the sprinters have licked their lips in anticipation of what is maybe a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to ride themselves into the yellow jersey at the end of a real power sprint in Bastia tomorrow afternoon. At the same time, the GC riders tremble in their boots as they head into the first of three extremely nervous stages on narrow, winding roads that are almost guaranteed to provoke crashes and chaos. Starting at 11.45, you can follow the first stage of the Tour de France on CyclingQuotes.com/live.
In 2008, ASO deviated from recent tradition by skipping the usual prologue and instead the Tour de France kicked off with a traditional road stage won by Alejandro Valverde. The organizers liked the idea and so it was repeated in 2011 when Philippe Gilbert rode into the first yellow jersey. This year we will see the third road race start of the race in just 6 years.
Unlike the two previous opening road stages which both finished on a short, sharp climb and thus suited punchy riders like Valverde and Gilbert, this year's long 213km stage in Corsica is almost completely flat. The stage starts in the coastal city of Porto-Vecchio and makes a short loop to hit the southernmost point of the island and heads a little bit inlands to include an early category 4 climb (Cote de Sotta, 1,1km, 5,9%) which will determine the first wearer of the polka-dot jersey. Having returned back to Porto-Vecchio after 60,5km, it's time to head north along the coastal road to Bastia which hosts the stage finish. As is typical for such roads, the stage is slightly undulating but nothing will be even close to putting the sprinters into difficulty.
Since the bonus seconds were skipped in 2008, the sprinters have had no chance to overcome their early deficits to ride into yellow, and the last bunch kick expert to wear the coveted leader's jersey was Tom Boonen in 2006 (if you omit Thor Hushovd's stint in yellow in 2011 which was not due to his ability as a sprinter). This year's opening stage could present a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity for the fast finishers, and Mark Cavendish, Andre Greipel and Marcel Kittel have all targeted the first yellow jersey since the unveiling of the first three stages of this year's Tour. They will have to overcome a difficult 180-degree turn at the 2km mark but from then on the roads are all straight and flat, thus offering the perfect scene for a battle royale between the world's fastest sprinters.
As the riders travel along coastal roads, there was always the risk that the wind could cause havoc on the peloton. On a mostly sunny day with temperatures just below the 25-degree mark, the peloton will only face light wind that will be against them on the long coastal run towards Bastia. As they make their 180-degree turn at the 2km mark, they should enjoy a tailwind during the sprint, thus making it a high-speed one for the truly powerful riders.
With the yellow jersey at stake for the sprinters - maybe for the only time in their lives - there is absolutely NO chance that a breakaway will make it all the way to the finish. Omega Pharma-Quick Step, Lotto-Belisol and Argos-Shimano will all stay attentive in the opening part to make sure that only a small group goes clear. Nonetheless, we could see some aggressive racing in the early part of the stage as there is a polka-dot jersey at stake. One of the day's early escapees will get the chance to stand on the podium in Bastia late in the afternoon, and multiple riders should be keen to seize that opportunity.
The three mighty sprint teams will probably not allow the break much leeway and they are likely to be caught rather early as the pace will automatically be brought up by the extreme nervousness that are bound to rule in the peloton. All the GC riders have feared the narrow, twisting Corsican roads for months, all the sprinters also want to stay near the front and as there is no GC in place and a couple of undulating stages coming up, most opportunists don't want to lose any time either as they fancy their chance of riding themselves into yellow before the peloton heads back to the European mainland. In the world's biggest bike race, everyone touches his brakes a little bit later than he would do in any other bike race and passes through an opening than he would normally regard as impassable and thus crashes and possibly also lost GC hopes are almost guaranteed. Just recall how Alberto Contador and Samuel Sanchez both lost time when the Tour last started with a road stage in 2011.
Only three riders have a real chance of winning tomorrow's sprint which is one for the true sprinters and all about power, top speed, positioning and lead-out: Marcel Kittel, André Greipel and Mark Cavendish. All are extremely eager to take the first yellow jersey but Cavendish possibly has a little edge when it comes to motivation, the Manxman having done nothing to hide that it is a major career objective to wear the only of the famous cycling jerseys he has still not had on his shoulders.
Cavendish may be motivated but a number of elements suggest that it will be hard for him to realize his goal. First of all, he lacks a world-class lead-out train. Matteo Trentin and Gert Steegmans were able to bring him into a position to take 5 wins at the Giro but at no point they were able to take control during the final kilometers of the stages. When they lost out to Cannondale and Orica-GreenEdge in the Giro, they have no chance against the world's best lead-out trains from Lotto-Belisol and Argos-Shimano, and Cavendish's strategy is likely to be dropped off in the wheel of one of his two key rivals. He is almost guaranteed to start his sprint from behind.
Hence, he would surely have preferred a headwind sprint that would make it easier to make up ground and would favour the tiny Brit over the bigger, more powerful Greipel and Kittel. In a finish like this, they will be able to reach an amazing speed and Cavendish will have to be at his very best to beat his German rivals. When we had a dress rehearsal of the Tour sprinting at the Ster ZLM Toer, Cavendish lost out, finishing 2nd, 3rd and 3rd in their internal battle respectively while Greipel was the winner with a 1st, 2nd and 1st place.
The most exciting part of the sprint could very well be the build-up when the Argos-Shimano and Lotto-Belisol trains battle for position and the stage winner could very well be decided by this fight between Kittel's and Greipel's teams. Koen De Kort, John Degenkolb and Tom Veelers form a frightening train for Kittel but Degenkolb has not raced with his fellow sprinter at all during this season and the train is unlikely to be perfectly drilled.
On the other hand, Marcel Sieberg, Jürgen Roelandts and Greg Henderson almost know by instinct how to deliver Greipel and have proved on numerous occasions that they are probably the best in the world at the job of putting a sprinter into position. Greipel certainly has an edge over his rivals when it comes to team support and that could very well put him in a winning position.
On the other hand, Kittel has beaten Greipel twice recently and in a real power sprint, he is probably the fastest of them all. He has a tendency to miss out in the sprints from time to time but if he gets a clear run to the line, he would be our favourite to ride himself into yellow on the first day.
A number of other sprinters are eager to mix it up. Matt Goss also has a fantastic lead-out train and Brett Lancaster and Daryl Impey showed last year that they has what it takes to mix it up with the best. On the other hand, the Orica-GreenEdge team has given the sprints less priority this year and Goss' train lacks strength in numbers. At the same time, the Australian is not fast enough to beat the three sprinting giants.
For Peter Sagan, it will be all about limiting his losses in the green jersey competition and he will probably be satisfied if he finishes in the top 5, instead aiming at stages 2 and 3. Alexander Kristoff and Nacer Bouhanni are both fast riders with top 5 potential but it will be hard for the duo to actually take the win in this fierce competition.
The first sprint in the Tour de France is very often dominated by crashes and so positioning will be a key ingredient. We could very well see a late crash turn the sprint into chaos, allowing only a few riders to contest the win.
A final mention should go to the intermediate sprint which will reveal the sprinters' true desire to go for the green jersey. While it a certainty that Sagan and Cavendish will pick up as many points as possible, it will be interesting to see how much priority Greipel gives the green jersey.
CyclingQuotes' stage winner picks: Marcel Kittel, Andre Greipel, Mark Cavendish
Outsiders: Matthew Goss, Alexander Kristoff, Nacer Bouhanni
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