If the Tour de France riders thought that today's stage was a hard one, they will get much wiser tomorrow when the peloton is set to tackle what on paper appears to be the toughest of the Alpine stages. The finish may not be as hard as today's and the time differences between the best riders may be smaller but at the end of a mammoth 204,5km stage with 5 big climbs, a bad day will be an extremely costly affair. Starting at 11.00, you can follow the drama in its entirety on CyclingQuotes.com/live.

The second of three consecutive days in the Alps is a tough one as it contains two of the legendary giants in its early part and is rounded off by three shorter climbs in quick succession. After 12km of flat roads, the riders hit the bottom of the category HC Col du Glandon (21,6km, 5,1%) whose descent and a short flat stretch is followed by the mighty category HC Col de la Madeleine (19,2km, 7,9%). After the downhill section, there is a little time to recover as the riders travel along valley roads for around 25km until they hit the bottom of the category 2 Col de Tamié (8,6km, 6,2%).

From this point, it will be up or down almost all the way to the finish as the climb is followed by the category 1 Col de l'Epine (6,1km, 7,3%) and the category 1 Col de la Croix Fry (11,3km, 7%). The Tamié is not very difficult but gets a little steeper near the top. The Col de l'Épine is a highly irregular climb with some steep passages both at the bottom and near the top. The Croix Fry is a regular climb with a rather constant gradient and from its top only 13km of the stage remain, almost all downhill. However, the descent comes to an abrupt end as the final 500m ascend with a gradient around 7%, thus offering an explosive finish to a very hard stage. The final 2km follow a mostly straight road that only bends slightly to the right but the riders will have to go through a roundabout 260m from the line.

The riders were lucky to avoid the expected bad weather today but they will need similar fortune to avoid racing the final in wet conditions tomorrow. The weather forecast is almost a copy of the one for today as the riders will start out under a slightly cloudy sky with a 19-degree temperature. A moderate wind will blow from a northwestern direction and so the riders should face a crosswind which gradually turns into more of a cross-headwind.

As the peloton starts to climb the Madeleine, conditions are expected to deteriorate and like yesterday, thunderstorms with rain, strong wind gusts and possibly hail should make their presence felt. The temperatures should drop a little and at the finish, only around 14 degrees are expected. Once again, the weather could make the numerous descents dangerous but most riders will be happy to know that the final three downhill sections are not overly difficult.

The breakaway made it to the finish today and we could very well see the early move be similarly successful tomorrow. The first part of the stage is extremely tough and anarchy always rules when a big third-week mountain stage in a grand tour starts off with a tough climb. The Glandon will be raced at an extremely fast pace as attacks will go off in both sides of the road. Sky have to be ready from the gun to keep everything under control and the sprinters will have to dig very deep not to lose too much ground from the very beginning of the stage.

As the early break is likely to go clear on the Glandon, we should see no escape like today's which contained a combination of good climbers and strong rouleurs. Tomorrow is a day for the riders who thrive on the ascents and you won't get anywhere if you don't have a very solid pair of climbing legs. Usually, the group ends up being very strong and rather big in stages like tomorrow's.

As the break should be both strong and sizeable, it will require a concerted effort to bring it back together and we can't really imagine anyone doing it. Sky will do nothing at all to chase down the move as it will be difficult for them to win the stage anyway. They will prefer to save energy for later in the stage. Joaquin Rodriguez would be one of the favourites on the short, steep climb to the finish but his team is not nearly strong enough to chase down a break of climbers. Saxo-Tinkoff are unlikely to win the stage from a battle between the favourites and won't do anything either.

The only team with a genuine interest and the required strength is Movistar but it will take an extremely dedicated effort to actually make it. They are more likely to try to get into the early move themselves but if they fail in that quest, you cannot rule out that the team will make an attempt to chase the break down.

The only other element that could deny the breakaway the win is Alberto Contador. Today the Spaniard once again struggled and it must be hard for him to still believe that he can win the race. However, the 2009 Paris-Nice, the 2011 Tour de France and the 2012 Vuelta a Espana all prove that he is a fierce competitor and while it would be a wise decision for him to concentrate on his defence of the 2nd place - which in itself is a very hard task - he could very well still target the win.

On the rest day he said that he planned a big attack on one stage and as we said yesterday, we expect it to be tomorrow's. He took a beating today and that may force him to revise his plans but if Contador decides the strategy on his own, we would expect him to risk everything. The question is whether his team will allow that to happen as the management may be more interested in a podium spot than the Spaniard is himself.

If he carries through his plans, we would expect him or Roman Kreuziger to launch a big attack on either the Glandon or the Madeleine, probably the latter. At his current level, he is unlikely to finish it off but it would produce a spectacular race. Sky, Movistar and Katusha won't allow him to gain much ground and while the captains may not respond immediately themselves, those three teams should be strong enough to make sure that it all comes to nothing. A Contador attack will, however, force the peloton to race much harder and that could spell the end of the breakaway's chances.

 In any case, we would expect a breakaway to make it, and so our stage winner picks should be one of those strong climbers that are a little down on GC. One rider stands out as the most likely to finish it off. The stage has "Mikel Nieve" written all over it as the Euskaltel climber is a specialist in taking big wins on long, hard days in the mountains. He did so when he won the queen stage of the 2010 Vuelta to Cotobello and he repeated the performance on the long, extremely hard queen stage to the Val di Fassa in the 2011 Giro. He is currently 4th in the mountains classification but hasn't given up on the polka-dot jersey. If he is to step onto the podium in Paris, he simply has to pick up many points tomorrow.

At his current level, he is simply impressively strong. In the stages to Ax-3-Domaines, Mont Ventoux and Alpe d'Huez, he launched attacks from afar but still had the strength to finish in the top 10 when he was caught by the race favourites. He is no fast sprinter but he could very well ride away from his rivals on the Croix Fry for a solo win.

Andy Schleck has set his sights on a stage win and we have always been confident that he would reach the required level in the third week. Both the time trial and today's stage proved us right and we can't really imagine that he won't try to join the early move. His efforts today certainly haven't cost him too much energy and he will only benefit from the accumulated fatigue of his rivals and the toughness and length of the stage.

Pierre Rolland may not have had the Tour de France he had wished but his attack today proved that he is still going strong. His big dream is to take a big solo win in the Alps for the third year in a row and his biggest chance comes tomorrow. Like Nieve and Schleck, he will benefit from the fact that it will be a very long day in the saddle, and like Nieve he still hasn't given up on the polka-dot jersey. That forces him to go on the attack tomorrow and we wouldn't be surprised if the early break contains Rolland, Schleck and Nieve.

Bart De Clercq was expected to be Jurgen Van Den Broeck's domestique in the mountains but when the captain crashed out of the race, De Clercq suddenly got the chance to race for himself in the harder stages. He has done so at a high level so far, finishing 11th on the Ventoux and 20th today. He is far down on GC but one of the best climbers in the race and so we will expect him to be part of the action tomorrow as he tries to take his second professional win after his breakthrough victory in the 2011 Giro d'Italia.

As said, Movistar are most likely to play their cards in the early breakaway and their man for tomorrow is Rui Costa. The Portuguese took it easy today as he fell out of GC contention in the crosswinds but should be ready to give it a go tomorrow. On Tuesday, he proved just how strong he is as he left Christophe Riblon behind on the final climb and everybody should by now know much more about Riblon's strength as a climber. He has the clear advantage that he is very fast in a sprint and will be hard to beat on the uphill finishing straight.

Alessandro De Marchi has mostly been working for Peter Sagan but in the Alps he is free to chase his own success. His teammate Moreno Moser got close today and now the Italian is ready to follow up on that success. He won the final mountain stage of the Dauphiné from a long-distance attack in the mountains and will surely try to repeat that success tomorrow.

Ag2r have a number of good options for tomorrow's stage. John Gadret has not reached his top level in this race so far but now he appears to be on the rise. The hard start will make it much easier for him to get into the break and the short, sharp climb to the finish should suit him well. His teammate Romain Bardet doesn't appear to be slowing down at all and is another likely escapee tomorrow.

Lampre have not had much success so far and the only rider to reach a high level has been Jose Serpa. Such is his strength that he could make a good impression tomorrow and we would expect him to also try to get into the early move. Alexandre Geniez, Steve Morabito, Ryder Hesjedal and Andrew Talansky are also good picks. Finally, Robert Gesink appears to be strong these days and he is a good winner candidate if he is allowed to chase some personal success. His Belkin team could, however, ask him to stay with Laurens Ten Dam and Bauke Mollema as the two Dutchmen are likely to once again need lot of assistance to limit their losses.

Behind the breakaway, we should still see a good fight between the GC riders. Chris Froome made a mistake today by not eating enough and that cost him some time. He is unlikely to make that mistake twice in a row and the way he handled today's crisis proves that he is still the strongest rider in the race. However, he is unlikely to take any risks on the final descent and so we would not expect him to launch any attacks himself. He will probably only respond to his rivals and should be able to do so.

Next to Froome, Nairo Quintana and Joaquin Rodriguez are clearly the strongest riders and they will certainly use the opportunity tomorrow to take more time out of their podium rivals. With plenty of flat roads in the valley, they won't try any long-distance attack but should try something on one of the two final climbs. A likely scenario is that Quintana, Rodriguez, Froome and possibly Porte will crest the summit of the Croix Fry together.

Should it be up to the favourites to decide the stage, it is likely to play out in some kind of sprint on the uphill finishing straight. Alejandro Valverde could still be in contention at this point and if he is, he should be the favourite. Rodriguez is very hard to beat on short finishing climbs and it should be a hotly contested sprint. The Katusha leader would, however, have preferred a steeper climb to really benefit maximally from his strength.

Quintana and Froome are not slow in a sprint either and it would be a big mistake to rule out those two. Froome may take the win by virtue of his pure strength while Quintana showed his explosiveness in the finale of today's stage.

CyclingQuotes' stage winner picks: Mikel Nieve, Andy Schleck, Pierre Rolland

Outsiders: Bart De Clercq, Alejandro Valverde, Joaquin Rodriguez