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Starting at 10.30, you can follow the crucial and very hilly final time trial of the Tour de France

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TOUR DE FRANCE

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17.07.2013 @ 10:15 Posted by Emil Axelgaard

Chris Froome is happy to get another opportunity to extend his advantage ahead of the three tough Alpine stages where his team could come under pressure, and that is exactly what he gets in tomorrow's second time trial. An extremely hilly route means that it is a completely different thing than the flat, windy affair in Northern France and so it is one for the GC riders to shine. Froome's rivals may not lose as much as they did one week ago but the Brit stands out as the big favourite to take his third stage win and is guaranteed to further solidify his lead. Starting at 10.30, you can follow the time trial in its entirety on CyclingQuotes.com/live.

 

With the 2009 race as a notable exception, recent tradition has dictated that the time triallists have the upper hand at the end of the race as the final crucial stage for the GC has always been one against the clock. That won't be the case this year as the riders will tackle the final individual time trial before they have even raced their first road stage in the Alps. At the same time, the 32km route is not your usual one suiting the powerful specialists. There won't be a single meter of flat road on this course which consists of two tough category 2 climbs and their subsequent descents.

 

From the start in Embrun, the road immediately points upwards and as there is no flat road in between the two climbs, the only flat stretch will be the final kilometer to the finish line in Chorges. The Cote de  Puy-Sanières (6,4km, 6%) and the Cote de Réallon (6,9km, 6,3%) offer some serious climbing and their descents are also rather difficult - especially the first one. Technical director Jean-Francois Pescheux who has had the responsibility for the course since 2005, claimed at the route presentation that he had never designed such a tough time trial and looking at his previous routes, he is certainly right. Many riders have already had the opportunity to ride the course during their recon of the key Alpine stages and most have indicated that this is certainly not one for the usual time trial equipment, the riders mostly preferring to use a standard road bike.

 

The riders avoided the rain today and may do so again tomorrow but it is no certainty. When Svein Tuft rolls down the ramp as the first rider at 10.17, he will do so under beautiful sunshine and temperatures between 22 and 24 degrees. Those temperatures should remain stable throughout the day but as the day goes on, more and more clouds should make their presence felt. Between 12.00 and 14.00, there is a chance of a light shower but later in the afternoon there is a 50% chance of thunderstorms. If those conditions materialize, the technical descents will become treacherous and that could highly influence the outcome of the race. There should be very little wind but it should pick up slightly as the day goes on. The riders will mostly face a headwind but it should play no role at all.

 

Chris Froome were only 12 seconds shy of beating Tony Martin in the first flat time trial which suited the powerful German perfectly. Being one of the very best time triallists in the race and the superior climber, it is very hard to imagine anyone beating the Brit tomorrow. The two climbs are both rather difficult and no one should be able to go up those as fast as the current race leader. He can allow himself to not take too many risks on the descents and is likely to lose a little time to his rivals on those sections but he should easily make up for that deficit on the climbs. Paradoxically, he may take the win that he missed in the first time trial but his time gains are unlikely to be as big as they were one week ago. This is a course for climbers and so it suits his rivals much more than the first one with its scenic finish on Mont-Sant-Michel. Nonetheless, he should add at least a minute to his advantage over all of his rivals and that will allow him to enter the final four stages with a lead that has not been bigger since Lance Armstrong's heydays.

 

What could change the outcome is the weather. With a big time gap already in hand, Froome is unlikely to risk everything, should he race in wet conditions. However, his superiority on the climbs is such that he should still be able to take a comfortable win.

 

One of the biggest question marks is what world time trial champion Tony Martin can do on this course. He left the Dauphiné one day early to check out the course but was unpleasantly surprised with what he saw, claiming that he would have little chance to win. Nonetheless, he has still promised to give it his all and will do his utmost to keep his winning 2013 streak alive (so far he has only been defeated at the Tour de Romandie mountain prologue). This year he has found back to his 2011 level in the time trials and he has won numerous hilly time trials in the past. When he won the Paris-Nice in 2011, he laid the foundations by winning a difficult time trial and this year he beat everybody on a very difficult course in the Vuelta al Pais Vasco. His most recent world championships crown was also taken on a hilly course in Limburg. However, those routes all had their flat stretches and the climbs were not as long as those in tomorrow's stage which is the closest you can get to a mountain time trial without actually being one. Martin is certainly a solid climber and should it start to rain later in the afternoon, he will benefit of his start time at 12.39, but tomorrow he is likely to be happy if he finishes in the top 10.

 

Instead, we expect the GC riders and climbers to fill the upper spots on the results sheet and Froome's biggest threat could very well had come from his own ranks. Richie Porte proved both on Ax-3-Domaines and the Mont Ventoux that he is one of the very best climbers in the race and as a time triallist, he certainly knows how to pace himself in a stage like tomorrow's. However, he has publicly stated that he won't go full gas tomorrow. Last week he was allowed to give it a go - and so finished 4th - but on that occasion he did not have any specific tasks in the following flat stages. This time his situation is completely different as the small 7-man Sky team is expected to come under attack in the Alps. Porte and Peter Kennaugh are Froome's most valuable domestiques on the climbs and he has been asked to save himself for his team duties. Otherwise, it could very well have been another 1-2 for Team Sky.

 

It is somewhat of a paradox that Nairo Quintana could find himself in the position of gaining time on his rivals in a time trial. One week ago he was once of the big losers in Northern France but that flat course did not do him any favour at all. Tomorrow's stage is more about climbing and in that area the tiny Colombian is only surpassed by Froome. He is actually an excellent time triallist on hilly courses as he proved when he finished a close 2nd behind Martin in the very difficult Vuelta al Pais Vasco time trial, thus taking the overall win away from Porte. Earlier in the season, he also showed his prowess in the Col d'Eze time trial at the Paris-Nice. He is no mean descender as he proved when he won the queen stage in the Criterium du Dauphiné last year and so has all the characteristics to shine tomorrow.

 

In his post-suspension career, Alberto Contador has not been even close to the kind of time trialling that famously saw him beat Fabian Cancellara on a flat course at the end of the 2009 Tour de France but if he is to ever find back that strength, it has to be on a course like tomorrow's. His performance one week ago was one of his two best since he returned to the sport, and as he also proved on the Mont Ventoux that he is still one of the best climbers in the peloton - he would have finished higher had he not gone too deep to stay in Froome's wheel - he should be among the best tomorrow. He should still lose a chunk of time to his main rival but could gain some on the other podium contenders. Of course today's crash may be a cause for concern but he has himself downplayed the significance.

 

Bauke Mollema is certainly no time trial specialist but when it comes to a hilly course, his credentials show that he is among the best. Last year he finished 2nd behind Samuel Sanchez on a very technical and hilly course in the Vuelta al Pais Vasco and earlier this year he finished 3rd in the Tour de Suisse time trial up the Flumserberg. At his current level, he is one of the best climbers in the race and as he is also a good descender, he should be one of the very best tomorrow.

 

Based on previous tendencies, we would have expected Michal Kwiatkowski to fade towards the end of his debut Tour but so far the extremely versatile Pole has showed few signs of slowing down. He may be the most versatile athlete in the entire peloton as he simply masters all disciplines: climbing, time trialling, classics, crosswinds, descending and sprinting. However, it is his time trial abilities that first marked him out on the professional scene and his 5th place one week ago underlined his prowess. Compared to his rivals, he should gain less time tomorrow but he should still not be too far off the mark. One slight concern is today's performance that saw him finish 1.39 down on the race favourites. That could indicate that fatigue has finally started to set in but could also be a simple consequence of yesterday's rest day.

 

Roman Kreuziger is in the form of his life at the moment and tomorrow's course should suit him well. Earlier in his career, he was a splendid time triallist but for some reason his ability in the discipline almost disappeared. However, he did his best flat time trial for years one week ago and he should only improve on that performance on a course that suits him well.

 

Andrew Talansky and Jean-Christophe Peraud are both time trial specialists whose strength is best expressed on tough courses. They were both in the top 20 one week ago but are likely to finish in the top 10 tomorrow. The American finished 2nd in both the Col d'Eze time trial this year and the very tough time trial in last year's Tour de Romandie. He has improved as a climber and may have lost a little bit of time trialling strength as a consequence but that is not necessarily a disadvantage tomorrow. Peraud started his road career at a high age and so is a late blossomer. This year he has been stronger than ever and his current 9th place on GC is testament to that. He has finished 4th, 4th and 6th in WorldTour time trials on hilly courses earlier this year, and if he can reproduce those efforts tomorrow, he should gain time on his rivals.

 

Jakob Fuglsang was an excellent time triallist some years ago but during the last two seasons he has been far from his best. On the contrary, he has improved immensely as a climber and that should benefit him tomorrow. If he is to ever find back to his former strength, it has to be on a course like tomorrow's as he climbs well and is an excellent descender.

 

We are curious to see the performances of Joaquin Rodriguez and Laurens Ten Dam tomorrow. They usually struggle in the time trials but this course should suit them well. Rodriguez has done a lot of work in to improve in the discipline and the results prove that those efforts have not been in vain. Last year's Vuelta time trial had a tough climb and on that occasion, he finished 7th. His form is on the rise and so we should not be in for another Rodriguez time trial disaster. Ten Dam is clearly riding better than ever and appears to be even stronger than his team leader Mollema on the climbs. Having finished a magnificent 22nd in the flat time trial, he should be able to do even better tomorrow. He struggled a little today but it would be very unusual for the Dutchman not to get stronger as the race goes on and so we see his time loss more as a result of heavy legs after yesterday's rest.

 

Usually, we would also have pointed to Alejandro Valverde who won a very hilly time trial in the 2008 Criterium du Dauphiné. However, he has fallen out of GC contention and is likely to hold a little bit back to save something for a big attack in the Alps. His teammate Rui Costa would also have relished this course but the Portuguese finds himself in a position similar to his captain's and spent a lot of energy in today's big attack.

 

As said, this course is not one for the specialists and you can forget all about the likes of Svein Tuft tomorrow. However, there are still a couple of non-GC riders that could mix it up with the best. Thomas De Gendt finished 3rd in the first time trial and this one should be even better for him. He had been a shadow of his former self during the entire season but recent days have given indications that his legs have started to come around. Sylvain Chavanel and Tom Dumoulin also both have the climbing strength to perform tomorrow. Usually we would also have mentioned Lieuwe Westra but at his current level we would be positively surprised if he shines tomorrow.

 

CyclingQuotes' stage winner picks: Chris Froome, Nairo Quintana, Bauke Mollema

Outsiders: Roman Kreuziger, Alberto Contador, Tony Martin

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