The GC riders would relish the opportunity to get an easy day in the saddle in tomorrow's transitional stage to Gap but the rest of the peloton all have different plans. The lumpy route means that stage 16 has breakaway written all over it and for riders that are neither sprinters nor climbers, it is their last chance to chase some personal success. Expect a frantic opening part of the race as no one wants to miss the escape before the famous Col de Manse and it's even more famous  descent is set to decide the winner of the stage. Starting at 14.00, you can follow the action on CyclingQuotes.com/live.

The Tour peloton made a small deviation from its journey to the Alps when they headed South to tackle the Mont Ventoux but after the rest day, it is time to travel the final short distance to the foot of the mighty mountains. That will happen on a lumpy 168km route to Gap and the hard terrain around that city is famously known for its many successful breakaways.

The first part of the stage offers the perfect launch pads for attacks as the category 3 Cote de la Montagne la Bluye (5,7km, 5,6%) and the category 2 Col de Macuègne (7,6km, 5,2%) are both located inside the first 48km of the stage. From then on, the route becomes way easier but that all changes when the riders reach Gap to start a very difficult circuit containing a hard climb. From the top of the category 2 Col de Manse (9,5km, 5,2%), 11,5km of very technical descending remain and only the final kilometer is almost flat. The last 2 kilometers follow a straight road that is only punctuated by two roundabouts.

This year's Tour has very few stages for the escape artists and so every opportunist has made a big X on the July 16 page in their calendar. While the attackers are happy to see Gap back on the route map, Andy Schleck had certainly preferred to skip it. When a stage last finished in the city in 2011, it also ended with the same circuit featuring the Col de Manse and on that occasion Alberto Contador launched a furious attack in an attempt to regain some of the time, he lost in the Pyrenees. While eventual winner Cadel Evans was able to match his speed, both Schleck brothers were dropped and they lost plenty of time on the subsequent, rain-slickened descent.

Afterwards, they heavily criticized the parcours, claiming that the race should be decided on the climbs and not on the descents but nonetheless ASO has decided to return to the famous scene. Up ahead, Thor Hushovd beat compatriot Edvald Boasson Hagen and teammate Ryder Hesjedal in a sprint to win his second stage in what was a splendid Tour for the then-world champion. The descent is even more famous as the site of Joseba Beloki's crash in the 2003 Tour that left the Spaniard with severe injuries, and the multiple podium finisher never found back to his best level. On that occasion, Lance Armstrong showed his off-road skills as he famously went off the road to step back onto the road a hairpin further down.

Until now, the 2013 edition of the race has been known as an extremely hot and sunny one but that is all set to change in the final week of the race. While the day should get off to a beautiful start, clouds are set to make their presence felt by the time, the riders will start the stage. There is a 40% chance of rain in the afternoon with more wet conditions expected later in the week. If the final descent becomes wet, it will be reminiscent of its most recent inclusion in the race when the Schlecks struggled in the rainy conditions. We will certainly see no crosswinds action tomorrow as there will almost be no wind, with only a light breeze blowing from a westerly direction. That means that the peloton will enjoy a slight tailwind for most of the day but faces a headwind on the final descent and the finishing straight.

The riders that are neither climbers nor sprinters only have one opportunity to chase some personal success and that one comes in tomorrow's stage. The lumpy nature of the course means that it is very hard to imagine it not being decided by some escapees and for many teams, it is their final genuine opportunity to pick up that elusive stage win.

That was also the case when a similar stage was raced in 2011 and on that occasion, the pace was furious for more than 2 hours. The peloton had almost reached the Col de Manse when the elastic finally snapped and the Hushovd group went up the road. We could very well see a similar scenario tomorrow and when the live tv starts at 14.15, it is very likely that the breakaway has not gone clear.

Almost all teams have been asked to enter that group and a number of teams simply won't accept to miss the move. Hence, they will do their utmost to bring it back if they miss out. The stage is likely to be played out as we saw it on Saturday where Lampre and Euskaltel - two of the teams that haven't won a stage so far - desperately tried to reel in the big 18-man group before they finally cracked.

When the elastic snaps, the peloton is likely to be content to just roll safely across the line and no one should have a keen interest in bringing it back together. One could think that this should be a good opportunity for Peter Sagan but should his Cannondale team bring it back together for the final climb, it will be very hard to respond to the flurry of attacks that should ensue. Hence, they won't even bother trying and no other team has a genuine interest in trying to bring it back together at the bottom of the Col de Manse.

To pick a stage winner, we have to look at potential escapees. With a difficult climb at the finish, it is certainly not just any rider that has a real chance of success and the difficult first part of the stage also means that it will require a solid pair of climbing legs to stay in contention and get into the early move. Furthermore, most riders are tired at this point of a grand tour and not many riders have the required freshness to actually come out triumphant.

Last year Orica-GreenEdge entered the Tour with a dedicated sprint team but this time the team has changed its strategy. The team has included more allrounders to target success in the hillier stages and we would be surprised to find not either Michael Albasini, Simon Gerrans or Simon Clarke in the break that eventually makes it. Albasini is a true breakaway specialist, having won stages in the Tour de Suisse, the Vuelta a Espana, the Volta a Catalunya and the Paris-Nice, and he most recently put his abilities on show on Saturday when he was clearly the strongest rider in the escape that decided the stage to Lyon. He is a good climber, strong descender and has a fast sprint. The same attributes characterize his teammates Clarke and Gerrans who both appear to be in a similarly splendid condition and so Orica-GreenEdge have no less than three genuine stage win opportunities.

World champion Philippe Gilbert still hasn't won a race in his rainbow jersey and has had a tough year so far. Like last year he appears to have used the Tour to ride himself into some solid form and his showing in non-favourable terrain on the Mont Ventoux was really impressive. His team has set its sights on stage wins after falling out of GC contention and he has all the attributes to shine tomorrow. His in-form teammate Steve Morabito could also end up in the right breakaway.

Jan Bakelants has already set the world on fire on numerous occasions in this Tour, most recently in the weekend stages as he was on the attack both days. Having finished 23rd on the Mont Ventoux, he is certainly not on the decrease form-wise and compared to Saturday, he will find the more difficult finish to his liking. His teammate Tony Gallopin could also strike tomorrow and no one would want to bring the fast Frenchman to the finish line.

Movistar are out to pick up the stage win that has so far eluded the Spanish team and they are eager to strike back after their bad luck on Friday. Rui Costa had to sacrifice his own chances when Valverde fell behind in the crosswinds but could now get his chance to chase a stage win. He is a strong climber, a good descender and has a fast finish. His teammate Ruben Plaza could also target some rare personal success tomorrow.

Peter Sagan surprised many by not even trying to win the stage on Saturday and instead he has set his sights on showing more sides of his versatile talents. He did a good time trial and was in the break yesterday, hoping to finish in the top 10 on the Ventoux, and he is undoubtedly ambitious for tomorrow's stage. As he proved in the Tour de Suisse, the final climb is not too difficult for him to overcome and as he is probably the best descender in the peloton, he can even allow himself to lose a little ground on the ascent. If he remains in contention on the finishing straight, the outcome will never be in doubt. His teammate Alessandro De Marchi is an expert in long-distance breakaway and will be eager to repeat his Dauphiné success on the biggest scene of them all.

Young French talent Romain Bardet has performed splendidly in his debut Tour and his recent performance on the Ventoux shows that he is not slowing down. He has targeted a stage win in the final week and tomorrow will offer him his first opportunity. He has been one of the best climbers in the race so far and also has a fast sprint, thus making him a perfect winner candidate. His teammate Christophe Riblon is also likely to target success tomorrow.

The Omega Pharma-Quick Step duo of Sylvain Chavanel and Peter Velits are both in good condition and have the freedom to go on the attack tomorrow. At his best, Chavanel is a good climber and he is certainly a formidable descender. As a former podium finisher in the Vuelta, the final climb should be perfect for Velits and both riders have a fast finish.

Finally, we will point to the Belgian riders Bart De Clercq and Thomas De Gendt. The former is riding better than ever and recently finished 11th on the Ventoux. He is no fast sprinter and has to arrive at the finish on his own but he clearly has the form to shine on the final climb. No one knows how to catch the rights breakaway like De Gendt and his performances in the time trial and the first part of the Ventoux stage prove that his legs have finally come around.

Finally, we do not expect to see any GC showdown on the final climb. In 2011, Contador launched an attack but this time he knows that Froome is unlikely to crack under the pressure. His opportunities come later in the race. If the descent is wet, we could, however, see his team apply some pressure but Froome can allow himself to not take too many risks as he already has a solid buffer and won't lose that much time on an 11,5km descent. We could also see some of the minor GC contenders try to get back some time by launching a late attack but most riders will be happy to save some energy for the time trial.

CyclingQuotes' stage winner picks: Michael Albasini, Philippe Gilbert, Peter Sagan

Outsiders: Sylvain Chavanel, Jan Bakelants, Simon Clarke