Crosswinds blew the peloton into pieces and changed the script of the race in today's flat 13th stage and so the GC riders should now all know the dangers of tomorrow's stage during which more crosswind and a lumpy profile should make for an interesting and unpredictable day in the saddle. The escape artists have all pinpointed this stage from the very beginning of the race, Peter Sagan may have his last genuine stage win chance, the sprinters all hope to survive the many climbs and Saxo-Tinkoff are ready to seize any unexpected opportunities. Starting at 14.00, you can follow the exciting stage on CyclingQuotes.com/live.

The riders continue their journey towards the Alps but while the previous stages have been completely flat, the 14th will briefly touch the outskirts of the Massif Central, thus offering a much more hilly route. The first part is slightly undulating but the difficult section comes around the midpoint as the riders will tackle two category 4 and two category 3 climbs. First up is the Cote de Marcigny (1,9km, 4,9%) and then the Cote de la Croix Couverte (2,6km, 5,3%), the Cote de Thizy-les-Burgs (1,7km, 8,2%) and the Col du Pilon (6,3km, 4,4%) follow in quick succession.

The finale is easier but the riders still have to overcome the category 4 Cote de Lozanne (2,5km, 4%) with 30km to go. To spice things up, ASO has chosen to deviate from the direct route to Lyon and the final part of the stage winds around the city as the riders are set to tackle two late category 4 climbs. The Cote de la Duchere (1,6km, 4,1%) and the Cote de la Croix-Rousse (1,8km, 4,5%) are located with 15 and 9,5km to go respectively but after a short descent from the latter, the final part is completely flat. With 6,5km to go, the riders cross the Rhone river and take a right-hand turn to head along its shores. With 2,9km to go, there is a 90-degree left-hand turn which is followed by a 90-degree right-hand turn and from then on, the final 2,1km are completely straight.

The riders have now reached the southern part of France and thus it is no surprise that the relentless heat will just continue. When the riders leave Saint-Pourcain-sur-Siole, the riders should enjoy bright sunshine and temperatures of 25 degrees. It will only get hotter as they day goes on and at the finish, 30 degrees are expected. The wind should not be too strong in the beginning but it should pick up as the riders get closer to the finish. At the end, it should have the same strength as it had today. Throughout the day, it should come from a northerly direction which means the riders should have a crosswind in the first part of the stage, gradually turning into a cross-tailwind. The riders should enjoy a direct tailwind on the 2,1km finishing straight.

This stage is one of the most unpredictable of the entire race and three different scenarios could all turn into reality: a win from a breakaway, a reduced bunch sprint or a sprint with most of the big sprinters present. If the roads towards the finish are exposed, we could even see some more crosswinds action, thus making it four possible outcomes of the race.

This year's Tour de France have very few opportunities for the opportunists and for the riders who are neither climbers nor sprinters, tomorrow's stage and stage 16 to Gap are the only opportunities to chase some personal success. Hence, half the peloton have pinpointed tomorrow as the day to go on the offensive and so we should be in for an extremely aggressive start and it would be no surprise if the riders have to race for more than an hour before the elastic finally snaps.

However, the escape artists are not the only riders to have red-circled this stage. Peter Sagan now only has to genuine stage win opportunities left: tomorrow's lumpy stage and the one into Gap where he could try to get into a breakaway. The Slovakian has all but locked up his win in the points classification and he is unlikely to be content with just picking up the required points to step onto the podium in Paris. He is in this race to win and he has done nothing to hide that he has targeted tomorrow's stage.

His Cannondale team have no other ambitions in the race than to win stages with their Slovakian captain and so they can allow themselves to leave it all out on the road tomorrow. In the stage to Albi, their pre-race tactics were to race as if there was no tomorrow and we would expect them to head into tomorrow's stage with a similar approach. Unlike many other teams, they had a rather easy stage today and so should be relatively fresh.

As the race is set to be extremely aggressive in the opening part of the race, it will require a tremendous effort during the opening hour to make sure that the early break is not too strong and not too big. However, almost all teams have told their riders not to miss out on the move and so they are likely to get plenty of assistance from the teams which do not have a rider in the escape at any given point in the opening part of the race.

When the break is gone and the race has settled, Cannondale have to take stock of the situation and assess whether they have the horsepower to reel in the group. Prior to the race, we had limited confidence in the team's abilities to take up such a task but the stage to Albi proved our initial assessments wrong. It is not at all unlikely that the team has the strength to bring it all back together.

At the same time, they have to ride hard on the climbs. It would be a huge mistake to rule out the pure sprinters Marcel Kittel, Mark Cavendish and Andre Greipel beforehand. The course may be lumpy but the climbs are not overly difficult and all three riders have a genuine chance of making it to the finish with the peloton.

The final three climbs are all rather easy and should do little to trouble those three sprinters and if Cannondale are to get rid of their rivals, they have to put down the hammer on the earlier climbs. However, the only really steep climb, the Cote de Thizy-les-Bourges is not very long and if the sprinters head into the lower slopes near the front of the peloton, they should not be too far back on the top. The only really long climb, the Cote de Pilon, is not steep at all and may not be enough to leave the sprinters behind. In the stage to Albi, it was a 6,7km climb with an average gradient of 6,5% that made all the difference and tomorrow's challenges are not nearly as difficult as that one.

Usually, we would say that Marcel Kittel had no chance in a stage like tomorrow's but the German has really hit the form of his life for this year's race. Having always been one of the first to get dropped on the climbs, he impressed everybody - even Peter Sagan - when he managed to finish ahead of the last big group in the tremendously hard stage on Sunday. At his current level, we would not at all be surprised if he makes it to the finish in the front group and the long, fast tailwind sprint suits him down to the ground.

Andre Greipel is usually the best climber of the big sprinters and has won races that have had a harder profile than tomorrow's. The same goes for Cavendish but the Manxman has appeared to struggle on the climbs in the early part of this race. Based on his previous performances, he would be the most likely to miss out but on the other hand, he always gets better as a grand tour goes on - especially on the climbs.

It will be interesting to see how the sprint teams approach the stage. Omega Pharma-Quick Step, Lotto-Belisol and Argos-Shimano have not too many ambitions in the non-sprint stages and their only remaining opportunity will be the Champs-Elysees. On numerous occasions, Omega Pharma-Quick Step have shown that they chase just the slightest sprint chance and we would not be surprised at all to see those three teams contribute to the early chase. And they are all guaranteed to ask most of their riders to wait, should their sprinters get dropped.

John Degenkolb, Alexander Kristoff and Matthew Goss - who has finally found his legs after a tough start to the race - all have a solid chance of surviving the climbs. It will be hard for them to beat the faster sprinters but a podium spot is certainly not beyond their capabilities. Degenkolb will of course have to sacrifice himself for Kittel, should his faster compatriot make it over the climbs.

Looking at potential breakaway candidates, a number of names spring to mind. Thomas De Gendt is a master in picking the right move and finishing it off in style, having won stages in this fashion at both the Paris-Nice and the Tour de Suisse. He suffered from stomach problems in the early part of the race but his 3rd place in the time trial - where he simply rode hard not to get caught by Tony Martin - proves that his legs have finally come around. Tomorrow's lumpy profile suits him perfectly and he is no bad sprinter at all.

Jan Bakelants has shown both strength and aggressiveness at this year's race and he is another rider tailor-made to tomorrow's stage. Like De Gendt, he fell off early on in today's stage, probably saving all his energy for tomorrow. He has a fast finish and is immensely strong on both the flats and the short climbs. In general, his Radioshack team is expected to ride an aggressive race and it would be no bad idea to look out for Tony Gallopin and Jens Voigt either.

Orica-GreenEdge have three riders who would relish to get into tomorrow's move. Simon Gerrans, Michael Albasini and Simon Clarke are all experts at picking the right breakaway and all have a fast sprint to finish it off. Philippe Gilbert fell off the pace early in today's stage which is a likely indication of his intentions for tomorrow. BMC's GC hopes have suffered a serious blow and Gilbert is likely to enjoy more freedom now.

Astana have raced aggressively until now and tomorrow's Ardennes-like course should be a good one for Enrico Gasparotto and Francesco Gavazzi who are both fast in a sprint. Romain Bardet fell off early today and that could indicate that the in-form Frenchman has red-circled tomorrow's stage as the one to finally reveal the true extent of his immense talent.

It would be very unusual for Pierrick Fedrigo and Thomas Voeckler not to get into a successful move during the Tour. So far none of the veterans have been at their best but it would be a mistake to rule out those wily Frenchmen. Belkin's Lars-Petter Nordhaug has shown much aggressiveness in the early part of the race and almost daily he has made his aggressive intentions clear in his post-race statements.

Finally, we would expect Movistar to bounce back from today's defeat and what would be a better way to do that than by getting into tomorrow's break. Look out for Rui Costa and Ruben Plaza to make it up for today's catastrophe. And Garmin has a team of attackers and almost any of them - except Daniel Martin and Andrew Talansky who are too close on GC - could shine tomorrow.

Whether it will be a sprint or a breakaway depends on two factors: the strength of the Cannondale team and the wind. If the wind is strong enough to create nervousness in the peloton, that alone could spell the end of the breakaway's chances. As Cannondale will leave it all on the road and the peloton is likely to be very nervous , we will give Sagan a slight favourite role. And if it comes back together, don't rule out the big sprinters either.

CyclingQuotes' stage winner picks: Peter Sagan, Thomas De Gendt, Simon Gerrans

Outsiders: Marcel Kittel, Andre Greipel, Mark Cavendish