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Starting at 14.00 you can follow another stage for the sprinters on CyclingQuotes.com/live

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TOUR DE FRANCE

RACE PROFILE
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NEWS
12.07.2013 @ 13:44 Posted by Emil Axelgaard

It was a hard blow for Mark Cavendish to get beaten fair and square by Marcel Kittel today but the Manxman will get an immediate opportunity for revenge. While the GC riders count the days to their next battle on Sunday, the sprinters hope to make the most of their few remaining opportunities and nothing should prevent another big bunch kick in Saint-Armand-Montrond tomorrow afternoon. Starting at 14.00, you can follow the action on CyclingQuotes.com/live.

 

The sprinters have to make the most of their long journey through the flat French mainland as the final week only offers them one stage win opportunity: the Champs-Elysees. Hence, they are unlikely to miss out in the almost completely flat 13th stage. Unlike today, there is a small category 4 climb (Cote de Crotz, 1,2km, 4%) near the midpoint of the stage but otherwise the only thing which could potentially trouble the sprinters is an uncategorized hill inside the final 10km. It is only 2,5km long and has an average gradient of 2,5% and so is very unlikely to produce any shake-up at all and the pure sprinters all look forward to this opportunity which could be their last before Paris.

 

Like today they will have to deal with a tricky finish. The final 5km follow a long, mostly straight boulevard which is only disrupted by two roundabouts, the final one coming just after the 3km banner. Instead of continuing along that road all the way to the finish, the route designers have, however, chosen to spice up the final kilometer. Just after the flamme rouge, the rider will take a sharp 90-degree left-hand turn and moments later they will take another 150-degree right-hand turn. This leads them into a roundabout in which they will turn left to once again enter the big boulevard . From then on, the road is completely flat and straight but the short 470m finishing straight once again makes positioning the key to the honour of winning in the city that saw Carlos Sastre defend his lead over Cadel Evans in the final time trial in 2008.

 

The 2013 Tour de France has until now been known as a hot one and that won't be any different tomorrow. The riders should enjoy bright sunshine the entire day and when they leave Tours at 13.00, the temperatures should be around 24 degrees. As they head towards Saint-Armand-Montrond, the heat should increase and when they reach the finish, the temperatures should have reached 29 degrees. Like today, there should be a moderate wind from a northeasterly direction but it should decrease a bit as the peloton approaches the finish. As the riders will once again mostly travel in a southeasterly direction, there should be a crosswind for most of the day but compared to today, it should be a little bit more of a headwind. That should also be the case for the sprint which should be contested into a cross-headwind.

 

Let's start by making clear that this is another guaranteed sprint finish. Saturday's stage to Lyon is likely to end in a sprint but when the sprinters head to their hotels later that evening, they know that they won't get another chance until Paris. There is simply no chance that they will miss out on the last evident chance and so Argos-Shimano and Omega Pharma-Quick Step will keep the early break firmly under control. Usually, we would of course also have included Lotto-Belisol on that list of sprint teams but they could take a more conservative approach depending on the condition of their injured riders.

 

Today the wind was not strong enough to split up the peloton and as the conditions are similar tomorrow, it should be no different on that occasion. As the riders will even have more of a headwind, it will just be that bit more difficult to make the difference and while the GC riders will all stay attentive, it would be a surprise to see any real crosswinds action.

 

With a sprint finish on the cards, we once again have to look at the sprint hierarchy and today's events are likely to have an impact on that. Until now, the sprints have been completely dominated by the world's best lead-out train as Marcel Sieberg, Jurgen Roelandts and Greg Henderson have delivered Andre Greipel perfectly on most occasions, simply powering clear of their rival trains inside the final two kilometers.

 

That is unlikely to happen tomorrow as Sieberg, Roelandts and Henderson were all involved in the late crash. William Bonnet hit the deck just in front of Sieberg, and both Henderson and the German hit the deck hard. The latter suffers from a bruised knee while the former has a deep wound on his elbow. Roelandts did not hit the ground but was crashed into by another rider from behind, suffering a blow to his back. As he already suffered from back problems, the incident will not have done him any good.

 

All riders should continue in the race but it is very unlikely that the injuries will not have an impact on the team's strength. We doubt that Greipel will get his standard textbook lead-out tomorrow and that leaves the door open for his rival teams to shine.

 

Today Omega Pharma-Quick Step and Argos-Shimano both battled for control inside the final two kilometres of the stage as John Degenkolb and Tony Martin went head-to-head. The former came out triumphant and it was the Dutch team that had the strength to lead the peloton when they passed the flamme rouge.

 

Nonetheless, the team lost out inside the final kilometer. Kittel's lead-out man Tom Veelers suffers from Tuesday's crash and was unable to play his usual role. Hence, Omega Pharma-Quick Step powered ahead of the Dutch squad but Kittel was wise enough to jump onto Matteo Trentin's wheel and later move into the position just behind Cavendish.

 

Veelers is likely to be absent again tomorrow but we still think that Argos-Shimano is that little bit stronger than Omega Pharma-Quick Step. Koen De Kort really stepped up his game today and if he can deliver a similar performance tomorrow, Kittel should be delivered perfectly once again.

 

We have always claimed that Kittel is the fastest sprinter in the world and today it was proved to a world-wide audience when he beat Cavendish fair and square. The sprint was not even suited to his characteristics as the short finishing straight made it one based more on acceleration than on power. As Kittel is likely to be delivered perfectly and should also be the fastest sprinter, he is the main favourite for tomorrow. We won't rule out that his train will be overtaken by Steegmans again but Kittel should have the power to take his fourth stage win.

 

Cavendish's lead-out train improved much today and if they can repeat that performance, it would be a mistake to rule out the Manxman tomorrow. Once again, the finishing straight is relatively short, thus making acceleration crucial. The Brit has an excellent kick and should once again benefit from the nature of the finish.

 

Furthermore, it will be a sprint into a headwind tomorrow while it was a tailwind sprint today. That means that aerodynamics is much more crucial and this should be an advantage for Cavendish over Kittel. The German has a much larger front area and the climatic conditions should thus favour the Brit. Whether that is enough to take the win remains to be seen, and we would point to Kittel as our stage winner pick.

 

Greipel cannot be completely ruled out. He may not be as fast as Cavendish and Kittel but he is still an excellent sprinter. If his sprint trains is not too impacted by its injuries, he could still get the best lead-out. Even if that is not the case, a sprint into a headwind is always dangerous and if either Kittel or Cavendish puts down the hammer a little bit too early with Greipel in their wheel, the German will know how to take advantage.

 

That also goes for Peter Sagan who may not be fast enough to beat Cavendish, Kittel and Greipel in a direct battle but he is an extremely wily competitor. He is strong in the battle for position and usually gets into the wheel that he targets. He has a strong acceleration and so will benefit from the short finishing straight and if one of the faster sprinters opens up his sprint a little bit too early, a Sagan win cannot be completely ruled out.

 

Matthew Goss has been extremely unlucky in this year's Tour. Today he was once again taken out of contention by a crash and he only had an incident-free sprint in Montpellier when he lost the wheel of his lead-out man Daryl Impey.

 

With Lotto's train licking its wounds, the battle field is a little more level and that could play into the hands of the Australian. Brett Lancaster and Daryl Impey form a very strong train and should not be too far off the pace of Omega Pharma-Quick Step and Argos-Shimano. If they can time it to perfection, Goss should be in the mix.

 

Finally, we will once again point to Roberto Ferrari as a podium candidate. The Italian proved his strength in the battle for position today and his acceleration is suited to the short finishing straight. A headwind sprint should be a further advantage for the fast Italian and tomorrow could be the day when he finally gets onto the stage podium.

 

CyclingQuotes' stage winner picks: Marcel Kittel, Mark Cavendish, Andre Greipel

Outsiders: Peter Sagan, Matthew Goss, Roberto Ferrari

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