The sprinters fought hard to survive two tough stages in the Pyrenees and have all been looking forward to the second week that has plenty to offer for the fastest finishers. Their first opportunity comes in tomorrow's 10th stage in Bretagne while the GC riders have to stay careful in the cycling-mad region which is known for its strong wind and many potential pitfalls. Starting at 14.00, you can follow the stage on CyclingQuotes.com/live.
The race has seen a change of scenery as the riders have left the Pyrenees and Southern France to move up to Bretagne. The day after a rest day can be a tricky one and so the GC riders will be happy to get back into action on a day that seems to be tailor-made for the sprinters. Only a single category 4 climb (Cote de Dinan, 1km, 4,2%) at the 142km mark breaks the monotony as the riders travel from one end of the peninsula to the other but stages in Bretagne can always be a tricky affair. It's slightly up or down most of the day and the weather can have a big influence in the region.
That will especially be the case towards the end of the stage as the final 18km follow an almost flat, very exposed coastal road. The final 5km only have some slight bends, the last of those being located 2,1km from the finish. From then on the road is completely straight, thus making the finishing straight one for a high-speed sprint suited to the truly powerful riders.
Many riders struggled in the intense heat of Southern France and had probably hoped to see the temperatures be slightly lower in Bretagne. Those riders will, however, be left disappointed as it will be another day with bright sunshine and temperatures up to 30 degrees. Bretagne is feared for the risk of crosswinds and a moderate wind from a northwesterly direction will force the riders to stay attentive throughout the day. As the peloton mainly travels north, the wind will primarily be a cross-headwind, thus offering few opportunities to split up the race. However, the roads twist and turn throughout the entire stage, and it is not unlikely that there should be some small piece of exposed road with direct crosswind that could be used to make a surprise attack. When the riders make the left-hand turn to start the final 18km along the coast, the wind will turn to a tailwind, thus making the sprint an extremely fast one.
The three best sprinters in the race, Mark Cavendish, Andre Greipel and Marcel Kittel, all have dedicated sprint teams which have very few ambitions in the hillier stages. Hence, their riders have mostly saved their legs in the Pyrenees for the second week which could potentially offer no less than 4 sprint finishes. Despite the rugged profile and the tricky nature of racing in Bretagne, those three teams are guaranteed to keep everything under control and any breakaway attempt will be doomed for failure. Having learnt from the near-miss in Marseille, they will take no chance and the early breakaway will not be allowed too much leeway.
Having realized that they are only humans, Sky will do very little to assist the sprint teams and for the GC teams it will mostly be a case of staying attentive, should echelons occur. We doubt that the wind will be strong enough to make any selection but as the windy stage to Montpellier showed, crosswind attacks rarely work when they are expected. It is the surprise element that may catch out some of the GC riders and so it would be a mistake to completely rule out the possibility tomorrow.
However, the most likely outcome is a bunch kick with all the big sprinters present and it should provide another opportunity for Cavendish, Greipel and Kittel to go head-to-head. At this point in time, they have all bagged one stage win and tomorrow will present the chance to get ahead of the rivals in their internal battle.
A tailwind and a flat 2,1km finishing straight should turn the sprint into one with extremely high speeds. This make aerodynamics less important and favours the riders with the most power. At the same time, there is little to gain by coming from behind and it should be possible to do a rather long sprint.
This turns it into one for Greipel's fabulous Lotto-Belisol train. Marcel Sieberg, Jurgen Roelandts and Greg Henderson proved in stage 6 why they are known as the best in the world at delivering a sprinter and the lead-out tomorrow should be dominated by the trains with highest top speed. That's certainly the one from Lotto and if Greipel is put into a perfect position, he will be very hard to pass in a true power sprint like tomorrow's. We would expect Lotto to move ahead with 1,5km to, and from the on the Belgian team could very well remain in control all the way to the finish line.
Mark Cavendish will be eager to make up for his defeat in Montpellier but while he is probably still slightly faster than Greipel in a sprint, tomorrow's finishing straight is less suited to the fast Manxman. His main advantage as a sprinter is his aerodynamic sprinting style which will be of less benefit in tomorrow's tailwind sprint.
At the same time, he is most likely to start his sprint from behind. His Omega Pharma-Quick Step team will have learnt a lesson from the Montpellier sprint where the team had used up too much energy way too early which forced Gert Steegmans to make a very early lead-out just to get Cavendish back into position. We would expect the train of Niki Terpstra, Matteo Trentin and Steegmans to save a little more energy for the finale but we doubt that they have the speed needed to go up against the Lotto-Belisol guys. In a sprint where it is much more difficult to come from behind, it will be harder for Cavendish to win.
At the same time, the Brit has been struggling in recent days and it was a surprise to see him getting dropped as almost the first rider in the stage to Albi. His look when he crossed the finish line on Sunday indicated that he was completely exhausted and for some reason, the Manxman is not at his best these days. Tomorrow's stage is more about power than form but we doubt that Cavendish has the condition to produce one of his very best sprints at his current level.
Marcel Kittel is still eager to show that he is fully capable of beating Cavendish and Greipel in a head-to-head battle and he could not have designed a better scenario for himself than tomorrow's. The German is probably the most powerful of all the sprinters and the one with the highest top speed, and that should come in handy tomorrow.
Argos-Shimano usually has a lead-out train that is almost as strong as Lotto's but until now it has not worked perfectly. They Dutch team really has to step up its game tomorrow if it wants to win the lead-out battle tomorrow and the most likely scenario is that Kittel has to start his sprint from behind. However, the German appears to be in the form of his life at the moment, getting dropped much later than Cavendish and Greipel yesterday and even finishing ahead of the last big group. As he is the most powerful sprinter of them all, we could very well overcome his lead-out deficit to take his second stage win.
Matthew Goss has been far from his best throughout the entire season but is still backed by a very strong lead-out train. In the stages to Marseille and Montpellier, the team had used up a lot of energy to defend the yellow jersey and Simon Gerrans and Daryl Impey had more to think about than just delivering Goss perfectly.
During the second week, the team will be entirely devoted to Goss and that should put the Australian back into the mix. He is not fast enough to beat the best sprinters and a win is very unlikely but if Orica-GreenEdge manages to produce one of its trademark lead-outs, he could very well take a top 3 result.
Peter Sagan has raced the previous sprints intelligently. Knowing that he has no chance to beat the top sprinters, he has benefited from his strength in the battle for position to get into Greipel's wheel. That has allowed him to use the German's slipstream to take top 3 results in the two most recent sprints and thus consolidate his lead in the points competition.
With an almost unassailable lead in that classification, he can allow himself to take a few more risks in the sprints and thus target a win instead of just sprinting to get into the top 3. His is not fast enough to beat the pure sprinters but if something goes wrong in the build-up to the sprint, the wily Slovakian could very well be the one to benefit.
Finally, we will point to Lampre's Roberto Ferrari. The Italian has not reached his best level so far this year and has had a hugely disappointing season so far. Having finished 5th in Marseille, he did, however, claim to be feeling better than at any other time this year. The Italian has no trouble handling the battle for position and if he gets a clear run to the line, he is a very fast finisher. With the dedicated support from Elia Favilli and Davide Cimolai, tomorrow's sprint could be the one that finally allows him to show the speed that earned him a stage win at last year's Giro.
CyclingQuotes' stage winner picks: Andre Greipel, Marcel Kittel, Mark Cavendish
Outsiders: Matthew Goss, Peter Sagan, Roberto Ferrari
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