Our joker pick Matteo Pelucchi became a surprise winner of the first sprint battle of Tirreno-Adriatico and the fast finishers now only have a few chances left in the Italian race. One of those comes tomorrow but an uphill finish and a very technical finale will make it a stage more for the puncheurs than for the pure sprinters.

 

The course

The GC riders will have to bide their time for another day before the real battle commences in the weekend while the sprinters look forward to another day in the spotlight that will precede two days of immense suffering in the mountains. However, they will not it all their own way during the long 210km stage from yesterday's finishing city of Casina to Arezzo. It is now time for the riders to leave the Tyrrhenian coast and head towards the Adriatic Sea and so the stage mainly consists of a long easterly run just south of the city of Prato.

 

The first part of the stage is easier than the opening kilometres of the 2nd stage as the riders head east along completely flat roads. The first challenge comes  after 60.2km when the riders climb the San Casciano Val di Presa (5.4km, 4.2%, max. 13%) which is quickly followed by the second and final climb of the day, the Poggio alla Croce (4.5km, 6.1%, max. 10%). which comes at the 86.6km mark.

 

The climb is followed by a short descent and an uncategorized ascent that leads to the first intermediate sprint after 104.1km of racing. From there, the riders travel along long, straight roads and they are only slightly undulating.

 

Having reached Indicatore with 68.4km to go, the riders do a lap on a 24.8km circuit that brings them across the finish line for the first time when 57.9km still remain. The riders turn around and head back to Indicatore for the second part of the circuit and contest the final intermediate sprint at the end of the lap, 43.6km from the finish.

 

The riders now take on the circuit for the second time and reach the finish line again with 33km to go. Instead of completing the lap, however, they now do three laps on an 11km finishing circuit in the southern part of Arezzo.

 

The final circuit rolls along city roads. A quick descent, with a series of wide bends, leads to the city stadium. The route then follows a long, flat, mostly straight road up to 3 km from the finish, where it enters the centre and winds along the city roads, with traffic islands and roundabouts. From now on, it is extremely technical as the riders go through a roundabout and two turns during the penultimate kilometre. At the flamme rouge, the riders turn right in two successive roundabouts, do a sweeping turn 750m from the line, a sharp turn 500m from the finish and then the final 90-degree left-hand turn just 200m from the line.

 

The final circuit may be mostly straight and flat but all the excitement is saved for the final kilometre. It is not only technical. When the riders pass the medieval gate 1km from the finish, it is uphill all the way to the finish with an average gradient of 5.0%. The steepest part comes at the bottom where it briefly reaches 11% and then flattens out a bit. The final 500m have a 5.4% average gradient.  A short, steep uphill sector leads (first on asphalted roadway, then on stone slabs) to the uphill 200-m home stretch (with a gradient around 5%) on 6-m wide, stone-paved roadway.

 

The finish is very different from when Arezzo last hosted a major bike race in 2003. On that occasion, Mario Cipollini won a much more straightforward sprint ahead of Robbie McEwen and Alessandro Petacchi in the Giro.

 

 

 

 

The weather

For the third day in a row, there is no reason for the riders to worry too much about the weather as it will be another excellent day for bike racing. The riders will enjoy bright sunshine for the entire stage and the temperatures will reach a very pleasant maximum of 17 degrees.

 

There will only be a very light, barely noticeable wind from an easterly direction which means that the riders will have a headwind for the long journey from Cascina to Arezzo. On the big circuit, they will mostly have either a tail- or a headwind while things will be more mixed on the short finishing circuit. From the 3km to go mark, there will mostly be a headwind, interspersed with some crosswind sections in the very technical finale.

 

The favourites

Many of the sprinters were left frustrated in today's stage that was a real treat for the fast finishers and the nature of tomorrow's stage will do nothing to dampen their disappointment. While they may still fancy their chances in tomorrow's finish, the uphill finale makes it a much more complicated affair and there will be much greater doubt and uncertainty in the sprinters' ranks.

 

Nonetheless, all the major sprint teams have vowed to give it a go in tomorrow's stage and this means that there is no chance that the early breakaway will stay away to the finish. Omega Pharma-Quick Step want to defend their jersey for another day and Lotto Belisol and Giant-Shimano are here mostly for the sprints - especially after Jurgen Van Den Broeck has withdrawn from the race. Hence, they will do what is needed to set up a sprint finish and they may get some help from Cannondale who will contribute if they feel that a sprint finish is in danger.

 

We should be in for a rather straightforward start of the stage, with an early break up the road that will be chased down by the sprint teams and it will all come down to a sprint on the uphill stretch in Arezzo. Due to the technical nature of the final circuit, however, we should see some very nervous racing as positioning will be key and we could easily see some crashes that make the finale rather dramatic.

 

The finish certainly doesn't suit the big power sprinters with the highest top speed. Instead, the race suits technically astute riders who have a solid kick in an uphill sprint and the stage is more one for classics specialists. Positioning ahead of the final corner 200m from the line will be of utmost importance as there won't be any time to get back if you are not one of the first riders at that point. To move into prime position, it will be important to handle the many corners as best as possible and it will be very difficult for a single team to control the finale.

 

Technical abilities, a fast uphill sprint and a fast acceleration out of the final corner are the key skills needed to win the stage and this means that one rider stands out as the major favourite. Peter Sagan may not have been sprinting very well this year but tomorrow it won't be about top speed. He appears to be leaner than he has been in past years and this may explain his poor sprinting but should suit him well in the kind of finishes where he is usually unbeatable: uphill sprints.

 

That is exactly what is on offer in tomorrow's stage and as he is also the technically strongest rider in the peloton, he should benefit from the many corners. He won't have an awful lot of support from his team but that is not a problem as he will be able to navigate in that kind of finish on his own. There is always a risk of getting boxed in but for Sagan it is less likely to happen. If he gets a clear run to the line when they exit the final turn, it is hard to imagine anyone beating Sagan in this kind of uphill sprint.

 

Arnaud Demare got close to victory in today's stage and he is one of the sprinters who also excel when the road is uphill. He proved so when he won a sprint in the Eneco Tour that finished on a climb of a similar length and with a similar gradient. On that occasion, he was rather convincing and it was certainly no coincidence that he won his U23 Worlds title in the uphill sprint in Copenhagen,

 

Demare is currently in excellent condition and has the kind of acceleration that will be important when it comes to getting back up to speed when he exits the final corner. That skill was put on show when he won a very technical sprint in last year's Tour de Suisse. Unfortunately, the technical finale suits him less as he is usually badly positioned in the sprint finishes but today his FDJ team showed that they have stepped up their game and delivered Demare perfectly on the front. If they can repeat that performance, Demare has the speed to possibly beat Sagan in a direct battle.

 

Mark Cavendish and the Omega Pharma-Quick Step team had to use all their energy to get back to the front after having been caught up behind Kittel's crash in today's sprint and this left him with no chance in the final sprint. He will be eager to make amends tomorrow and even though the sprint suits him less than today's, he certainly has a chance.

 

When he won his worlds title, he was the strongest in an uphill sprint and he also won a rather tough uphill battle in the 2009 Tour de France. Tomorrow's gradients should not be too steep for Cavendish to handle as he is currently building for Milan-Sanremo. His team still haven't proved that they can deliver him perfectly but they have the firepower to take control in the finale. Cavendish has the kick to get back up to speed after the final corner and if his team delivers him on the front, it could be a great day for Omega Pharma-Quick Step.

 

The sprint couldn't suit a rider like Marcel Kittel much less. The short and uphill finishing straight are clearly a disadvantage for a power sprinter like Kittel who even went down in a crash today. At the same time, he doesn't have the strongest team at his disposal in this race and key lead-out man Tom Veelers won't play a role in this kind of finish.

 

On the other hand, Kittel won a hard uphill sprint in last year's Paris-Nice and this year he has improved his climbing skills even further. He is currently in excellent condition and he is the fastest sprinter in the peloton. It will be tough for Kittel to come away with the win but if he is in a good position in the final corner, he can never be underestimated.

 

Tomorrow's sprint certainly doesn't suit André Greipel either. The German's main advantage is usually his strong lead-out train but they completely failed to live up to their usually flawless reputation in today's stage. Tomorrow it will be much harder for them to deliver Greipel perfectly as they will be less powerful on the uphill slopes than in a flat finish. Greipel was third in the Worlds sprint in Copenhagen and has a fine uphill sprint but against the best riders in the discipline, it will be hard. Nonetheless, the big German can never be ruled out and with strong team support, he has a chance.

 

Uphill sprints are the specialty for Enrico Battaglin who won a Giro stage in 2013 in such a finish. That stage was of course much harder than tomorrow's when it comes to sprinting on a rising finishing straight, the Italian can never be underestimated. His main difficulty will be to be positioned well in the finale and his team will need to find out whether they will support Battaglin or Sonny Colbrelli but if Battaglin manages to stay up there in the finale, he will be a dark horse.

 

Finally, we will select our jokers. If Battaglin is not the man for Bardiani, it will be the in-form Sonny Colbrelli who has already finished in the top 5 on nine different occasions in 2014. His specialty may be a flat sprint after a hard race but an uphill finish also suits him well. Like Battaglin, he doesn't have the strongest team to support him and he may lack the top speed to win the stage but we wouldn't be surprised to see him notch up another podium finish.

 

Our final joker is Davide Appollonio. In 2013 the Italian was plagued by illness but now he appears to be back at full strength. He broke his collarbone in the Tour de San Luis but is already back up to full speed when he finished 2nd in the very hard Roma Maxima. He excels in uphill sprints and is obviously in excellent condition. Look out for the Ag2r rider to battle it out with the best in tomorrow's stage.

 

CyclingQuotes' stage winner pick: Peter Sagan

Other winner candidates: Arnaud Demare, Mark Cavendish

Outsiders: Marcel Kittel, André Greipel, Enrico Battaglin

Joker: Sonny Colbrelli, Davide Appollonio