Peter Sagan narrowly missed out on the leader’s jersey in today’s stage but he gets a fantastic chance to don it tomorrow in the tricky stage to Arezzo. A very technical and uphill finale makes it tailor-made for the fast Slovakian and after having won the similar stage one year ago, he will do his utmost to finally break his drought.

 

The course

The GC riders will have to bide their time for another day before the real battle commences in the weekend but stage 2 won’t be a day for the sprinters either. Friday will see an almost identical copy of the one that was used last year and despite a mostly flat course, a tricky finale means that it is day for the puncheurs. Like last year the stage goes from Cascina to Arezzo and the long trek between the start and the finishing cities is almost completely identical to the one from 12 months ago but a twist to the finale means that the distance has been reduced from 210km to 203km. It is now time for the riders to leave the Tyrrhenian coast and head towards the Adriatic Sea and so the stage mainly consists of a long easterly run just south of the city of Prato.

 

The first part of the stage is easier than the opening kilometres of the second stage as the riders head east along completely flat roads. The first challenge comes  after 54.2km when the riders climb the San Martino is quickly followed by the second and final climb of the day, the Poggio alla Croce (4.5km, 6.1%, max. 10%). which comes at the 82.5km mark.

 

The climb is followed by a short descent and an uncategorized ascent that leads to the first intermediate sprint after 100.9km of racing. From there, the riders travel along long, straight roads and they are only slightly undulating.

 

With 65.6km to go, the riders reach Indicatore where they contest the second and final intermediate sprint before they continue along flat roads to the Arezzo where they cross the finish line for the first time with 55km to go. Last year the riders now did one lap of a long circuit that included a return to Indicatore and three laps of a 11km finishing circuit. This year the long circuit has been skipped and instead the riders end the race by doing 5 laps of the short circuit.

 

The final circuit rolls along city roads. A quick descent, with a series of wide bends, leads to the city stadium. The route then follows a long, flat, mostly straight road up to 3 km from the finish, where it enters the centre and winds along the city roads, with traffic islands and roundabouts. From now on, it is extremely technical as the riders go through a roundabout and two turns during the penultimate kilometre. At the flamme rouge, the riders turn right in two successive roundabouts, do a sweeping turn 750m from the line, a sharp turn 500m from the finish and then the final 90-degree left-hand turn just 200m from the line.

 

The final circuit may be mostly straight and flat but all the excitement is saved for the final kilometre. It is not only technical. When the riders pass the medieval gate 1km from the finish, it is uphill all the way to the finish with an average gradient of 5.0%. The steepest part comes at the bottom where it briefly reaches 11% and then flattens out a bit. The final 500m have a 5.4% average gradient.  A short, steep uphill sector leads (first on asphalted roadway, then on stone slabs) to the uphill 200m home stretch (with a gradient around 5%) on 6m wide, stone-paved roadway.

 

The finale is highly technical and a good result in the sprint depends as much on good positioning as it does on good legs. The uphill finale means that it is not a finale for pure sprinters but suits the strong puncheurs who both have a powerful uphill sprint and can handle the many turns in the finale. It is no surprise that Peter Sagan won last year’s stage ahead of puncheurs like Michal Kwiatkowski and Simon Clarke and the Slovakian definitely wants to repeat that performance.

 

Apart from last year, Arezzo last hosted a major bike race in 2003. On that occasion, Mario Cipollini won a much more straightforward sprint ahead of Robbie McEwen and Alessandro Petacchi in the Giro.

 

 

 

 

The weather

Tirreno-Adriatico is usually the preferred choice for the riders who want to have good weather for their first big stage race of the year and 2015 doesn’t seem to let them down. After the good start to the race, tomorrow should be another sunny day with a maximum temperature of 13 degrees.

 

Today the unusually strong wind made for some nervous racing and tomorrow the riders will again have to battle against stronger winds than usual. After a relatively calm start, a moderate wind will be blowing from a westerly direction in the final part of the stage. This means that the riders will have a tailwind all day until they reach the finishing circuit. Here the wind will be coming from all different directions. With 3km to go, they turn into a tailwind and after a short crosswind section, they will mainly have a cross-tailwind for the tricky final kilometre.

 

The favourites

As this stage also featured one year ago, everybody knows what to expect from the tricky finale in Arezzo. That day proved that the sprinters have a hard time in this difficult finish and that the GC riders have to stay very attentive as there will definitely be splits in the finale.

 

Peter Sagan won this stage one year ago and he will be very keen to make it two in a row. However, the stage also represents the first big test of the cooperation between him and Alberto Contador as it will be interesting to see how much energy, the Russian team will use in the chase behind the breakaway.

 

The fact that Tinkoff-Saxo could be reluctant to do too much work, could make the stage slightly less controlled than usual. On paper, everyone would expect this to come down to a sprint finish and so most riders would prefer to save their energy for later. However, this time the start of the race may be a bit more animated and even thought the first break could be the one that sticks, it may take some time for the early break to be formed.

 

When the break has gone clear, Movistar will do the early work but Adriano Malori has already admitted that he won’t be able to defend his jersey. Hence, the Spanish team are unlikely to bring the break back and other teams have to come to the fore.

 

We still expect Tinkoff-Saxo to take their responsibility. Today they spent quite a bit of time on the front and this is also a good way of keeping Alberto Contador safe. The finishing circuit is very tricky and the best way to avoid to having Contador being caught out behind a crash is by taking the initiative. This means that we expect Tinkoff-Saxo to set the pace for most of the day.

 

This is also a very big chance for Greg Van Avermaet and as BMC are mainly here for the stages, they should be willing to lend a hand. We may even see LottoNL-Jumbo come to the fore as they have a few good candidates for this kind of finish. Like BMC, they are here for the stages and they may lend a hand to the chase. In general there should be enough firepower in the chase to bring the break back and so it will all come down to an uphill sprint.

 

In this finale, the legs of course play a big role but technical skills and positioning are equally important. With the many turns in the final kilometre, you definitely have to be among the first 7-8 riders in the final roundabout if you want to have any chance to win. The uphill finish will only make things even more difficult and the rider who enters the final turn in first position is very likely to win the stage.

 

This means that Sagan is the overwhelming favourite. The Slovakian may not be as strong as he has been in the past but this finale is simply tailor-made for him. He probably has the best technical skills in the peloton and he is great at positioning himself. He is not afraid of taking any risks and he probably has the most powerful acceleration in these uphill finishes. This means that he will be very hard to hold back when he moves up on the slopes and he will definitely be in a good position for the sprint. It will be very hard to prevent him from getting through the final turn in one of the first two positions and from there it should be plain sailing for Sagan.

 

The only riders who are faster than Sagan will all be left behind on this kind of climb and the technical nature means that Sagan can benefit from his great acceleration and bike-handling skills. Last year he proved how to handle this finish and we expect him to do so again.

 

His biggest rival is probably Zdenek Stybar. The Czech is in outstanding condition at the moment and like Sagan, he is technically excellent. Furthermore, he is very fast in an uphill sprint and has a very good acceleration. His performance in Strade Bianche clearly showed that he is probably in the best condition of his entire life and he is likely to have the complete support from the Etixx-QuickStep team. Sagan again has to look out for the Czech champion’s jersey in this stage.

 

Another in-form rider is Greg Van Avermaet. He seemed to suffer for most of the Strade Bianche but he showed his excellent skills in the long races on the final climb. Yesterday he did the best time trial of his life to confirm his excellent condition and this stage is his big goal for this race. He is fast in an uphill sprint and knows how to position himself well. However, he is usually not as fast as Stybar and Sagan and doesn’t have the same technical skills. It will be hard for him to beat those to riders but he will definitely be up there.

 

After the unexpected loss of Robert Gesink, LottoNL-Jumbo are mainly here for the stage wins and they have marked this one out as a good opportunity. Paul Martens is very good in an uphill sprint as he proved when he won the queen stage of last year’s Tour of Belgium and in a much harder stage of last year’s Vuelta. He has red-circled this stage where he wants to go for the win. However, he is not as good as positioning himself as the main favourites and he would have preferred a less technical finale.

 

After a few poor seasons, Filippo Pozzato seems to have rediscovered his best legs. He has been climbing surprisingly well in San Luis and Oman and only bad luck took him out of contention in Strade Bianche. This stage is his big goal for this race and it clearly suits him very well. He knows how to position himself and has a fast sprint in this kind of uphill finish. He is not as fast as Sagan but he should be among the best.

 

On paper, this stage also suits Sep Vanmarcke very well but LottoNL-Jumbo have made it clear that he won’t take too many risks in this race. Hence, this technical finale should be too dangerous for him and he is likely to ride in support of Paul Martens. However, he is a fierce competitor and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him test himself in a finish where he can both use his good sprint, big power and great technical skills.

 

Sonny Colbrelli has had a poor start to the season as he has been set back by injury but he is getting better. This stage suits him well as he is very good in this kind of uphill sprint. However, he is not very good in the fight for positon and he doesn’t have the strongest team to support him. He is unlikely to win but he should be up there.

 

Today Edvald Boasson Hagen worked for Tyler Farrar but tomorrow he should get his chance. After a poor season, he has been at a reasonable level in 2015 and this stage should be a big goal for him. MTN-Qhubeka have lots of firepower to position the Norwegian who is one of the fastest in an uphill sprint.

 

On paper this stage is tailor-made for Fabian Cancellara. Last year, however, he didn’t get involved in the action and he is again unlikely to take too many risks. On the other hand, he has made it clear that he wants to achieve more results outside of his big goals and this stage could be an opportunity for him. He is both very fast and has the technical skills to be up there.

 

Finally, we will select a few jokers. Alexey Lutsenko is mainly here to support Vincenzo Nibali but in this uphill sprint he should get his chance. The Kazakh is fast and technical strong and most important he is not afraid of taking any risks in such a tricky finale. There are definitely faster riders than him but he could find himself in a good position that could allow him to take a good result.

 

Young Dane Magnus Cort has had an impressive debut. In the Strade Bianche, he was briefly in the lead group with all the big names and today he was 6th in the bunch sprint. This harder finale should suit him even better and he has a powerful team to support him. The main challenge will be to position himself well in this very technical finale.

 

Simon Geschke and Rinaldo Nocentini both finished in the top 10 last year and they will be eager to repeat that performance. They have both shown good condition in recent races and are strong in uphill sprints. While the Italian is probably technically the best, the German is slightly faster. None of them are likely to win but if they can position themselves well, they should be up there.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Peter Sagan

Other winner candidates: Zdenek Stybar, Greg Van Avermaet

Outsiders: Paul Martens, Filippo Pozzato, Sep Vanmarcke, Sonny Colbrelli, Fabian Cancellara

Jokers: Alexey Lutsenko, Magnus Cort, Rinaldo Nocentini, Simon Geschke