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CyclingQuotes.com takes a look back at the second part of the race as we ask ourselves what we have learnt from the 6 most recent stages

Photo: A.S.O.

TOUR DE FRANCE

RACE PROFILE
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NEWS
15.07.2013 @ 16:17 Posted by Emil Axelgaard

A race leader that is simply in a class of his own, a surprisingly weak Sky performance, a Spanish Movistar captain with a seemingly endless streak of bad luck and a change at the top of the sprinting hierarchy have been some of the headlines during the second week of the Tour de France. Chris Froome has an almost unassailable lead but the Saxo-Tinkoff team may be willing to risk everything in an all-or-nothing attack during the very hard third week of the race. CyclingQuotes.com takes a look back at the second part of the race as we ask ourselves what we have learnt from the 6 most recent stages.

 

Invincible Froome

The Sky collapse on stage 9 saw Chris Froome enter the first rest day with a few worries over his team's ability to support him. One week later, his biggest concern may be the media scrutiny of his recent performances as he has used the second part of the race to comfortably pad his lead on GC.

 

When we wrote our previous rest day analysis one week ago, we claimed that Froome could not be more happy with the route for the second week of the race. A couple of sprint stages were mixed up with two crucial stages for the GC riders which were both perfectly suited to his characteristics. A long, flat time trial was always destined to hand him a solid time gain and the stage to Mont Ventoux was made up in a way that saw it all come down to power on the final climb, leaving tactical considerations almost superfluous. If his rivals believed that they would be able to stay close to the race leader during the most recent 6 stages, they were certainly very naive.

 

The third week is way more tricky and his rivals have far more tactical options but Froome's superiority in the mountains is such that it is hard to see him suffer any time loss at all. Before we get to the Alpine stages, he is even almost guaranteed to have added at least another minute to his advantage in Wednesday's time trial, thus allowing him to not desperately chase down every move.

 

The likes of Contador, Kreuziger, Quintana, Mollema and Ten Dam may find a little consolation in the fact that he appears to have slowed a little down. He was always expected to crush the opposition on Mont Ventoux but he was not as superior as he had been one week earlier on the Ax-3-Domaines. On that occasion, he had put 1.45 into the 10th placed rider during the final 4km of the final climb and his nearest non-teammate was more than a minute behind. Yesterday, he put 2.08 into the 10th placed rider but his acceleration was launched at the 7,3km to go mark, thus way farther from the finish. At the same time, Nairo Quintana managed to limit his losses to just 29 seconds and if that tendency continues, his rivals can hope to be another bit closer to the invincible Brit when we reach the end of the race.

 

His real standout performance was not his showing on Mont Ventoux but his amazing time trial to Mont-Saint-Michel. On a course that was perfectly suited to Tony Martin's power, the race leader finished within 12 seconds of the German who has been superior in the discipline all season. Last year, he lost 1.16 to teammate Bradley Wiggins in the final flat 52km time trial of the Tour but his performance on Wednesday would have made it not at all unlikely that he would have been able to beat his then-team captain. In any case, his all-round abilities have marked him out as the most versatile GC riders since - dare we say it - Lance Armstrong.

 

Will Saxo-Tinkoff risk everything?

When you've already won the Tour and Vuelta twice and the Giro once, you are unlikely to race for a podium spot. Alberto Contador has entered the event with his sight firmly set on the win and history proves that he is willing to risk everything to reach that aim. When he attacked from afar on the Telegraphe in the 2011 Tour and in the Fuente De stage in the 2012 Vuelta, he targeted the win, knowing that he risked falling completely out of GC contention.

 

Both recent and pre-race statements indicate that the Spaniard has planned a big attack in the Alps and even after having taken a beating on the Ventoux, he vowed to keep on fighting. With 3 riders inside 10 minutes of Chris Froome on GC, Contador is likely to prepare a long-distance attack from Michael Rogers or Roman Kreuziger that should force Sky to wear themselves down in a huge chase effort, thus possibly isolating Froome.

 

That mission may be brave and deliver some fascinating bike racing but could also very well end up as a stupidity. Sky may have not lived up to expectations and we are still left wondering how Kanstantsin Siutsou and David Lopez have both mistimed their condition so badly. There is, however, no reason to point any fingers at Peter Kennaugh and Richie Porte and the latter proved both in the time trial and on Mont Ventoux that his failure on stage 9 can simply be written down to a bad day. At the moment, he is one of the three best climbers in the race and by racing a little more conservatively than he did yesterday on the Ventoux, he should be able to stay at the side of his team leader for a long time.

 

As Rogers is almost 10 minutes down, there is no reason to panic, should the Australian go off the front. A long-distance attack from Kreuziger would be of more concern but should Porte and Kennaugh run out of power, Froome is likely to find allies. With the current time gaps, all but Contador have left Froome to race his own race and set their sights on a podium place. 4th on GC, Kreuziger is very much in the running for such a spot and neither Movistar nor Belkin are likely to give him too much leeway. Having used up his domestiques when he was attacked in the crosswinds, he never had to take a pull himself as other teams stepped up to defend their own GC interests.

 

If Saxo-Tinkoff were to ever challenge Froome, they missed the opportunity in stage 9. On that occasion, Froome was isolated and at one point both Rui Costa and Roman Kreuziger were up the road with numerous teammates around them and a flat stretch ahead of them. At that point, the time gaps were smaller and Froome could not allow himself the same calmness as he can in his current situation. That opportunity was missed and it is unlikely to occur again.

 

There is no doubt that Contador is willing to risk everything but it is questionable whether the team management shares the approach. Contador is far from the rider he once was but his performance on the Ventoux and his solid time trial prove that he could comfortably secure himself a podium spot if he forgets about Froome. Yesterday, he tried to follow Froome for too long and that effort proved costly in the end. Had he remained in the chase group, he would probably have been able to put more time into his podium rivals.

 

Post-stage comments by team owner Bjarne Riis suggested that the team could target the teams classification and 2nd and 3rd place for Contador and Kreuziger. The latter faces what could be a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity of finishing on the podium, and while he will certainly stay loyal to his captain, he is unlikely to have too many objections, should the team management propose to change strategy. The question is whether Contador will allow that to happen?

 

Quintana steps up

Movistar may have taken a short-term beating in the crosswinds but looking to the future, the second week of the Tour gave the team every reason to celebrate. Nairo Quintana may have not been able to fully match Chris Froome on the Ventoux but he was certainly not that far off. Just as Froome appeared to have not only sealed the win in the 2013 Tour but also in the next couple of editions of the world's biggest bike race, the tiny Colombian proved that it may not be so easy for the Brit after all.

 

He may have shined in the Vuelta al Pais Vasco, the Criterium du Dauphiné, the Paris-Nice, the Vuelta a Espana, the Giro dell'Emilia, the Route du Sud and the Vuelta a Murcia in the past but those performances are still at a completely different level to what we witnessed yesterday. He ran out of power at the end but at just 23 years of age, he still has plenty of room for improvement - and he could be the rider to equal the performances of Jan Ullrich and Andy Schleck who both won the youth classification three years in a row.

 

For the time being, he is likely to target a podium spot and barring accidents, he could end up as high as 2nd. His statements all indicate that he is not harbouring any hopes of disposing Froome and when he started to cooperate with the race leader yesterday, he clearly indicated that he is not here to win the race. The 3rd week plays to his strengths and even the final time trial could be an opportunity to gain time. He may have struggled on the plains in Northern France but when he won the Vuelta al Pais Vasco, he was only beaten narrowly by Martin in a very hilly time trial. Wednesday's route is even more undulating and as he is both a strong climber and a good descender, it would be no bad idea for the podium contenders to look anxiously at the tiny Colombian climber.

 

No luck for Valverde

Few riders have experienced more bad luck at the grand tours than Alejandro Valverde. He crashed out of the Tour in both 2005 and 2006 and last year his overall ambitions were crushed by another early tumble. He could very well have won last year's Vuelta, had he not crashed in stage 4.

 

This year, everything was finally in place for the Spaniard to reach the Tour podium. He survived the crashes during the first week and he appeared to be in the form of his life when he shone in the Pyrenees and did his best ever flat Tour time trial on Wednesday. His team has done a tremendous job to keep their captain safe in the flat stages and when Omega Pharma-Quick Step put down the hammer in the crosswinds, it was no surprise at all that all 8 remaining Movistar riders had made the selection.

 

When a rider bumped into his rear wheel, forcing him to stop to get a replacement from Jonathan Castroviejo, it would be understandable for him to think "Not again!". At the same time, he was the victim of what could be seen as unfair riding by the Belkin team which took up the gauntlet and rode him out of GC contention. Sure enough, the team had been riding with Omega Pharma-Quick Step on the front earlier in the stage but they had stopped their effort when Valverde suddenly fell behind. Sensing an unexpected opportunity, the Dutchmen went back to the front, in the end leaving Valverde with a time loss of almost 10 minutes.

 

It may, however, be the past that caught up with Valverde. When Bauke Mollema punctured in the penultimate stage of the 2011 Tour de Suisse, it was Movistar who put down the hammer and left the Dutchman unable to rejoin the peloton. And when Levi Leipheimer crashed on a descent in the penultimate stage of last year's Paris-Nice, it was Movistar who upped the pace to move Valverde onto the overall podium. When Valverde crashed in the Volta a Catalunya a few weeks later, Omega Pharma-Quick Step paid back and on Friday, those teams once again made sure that Movistar will not forget their past actions in the near future.

 

The Dutchmen are coming

In recent years, Rabobank/Blanco/Belkin have been almost synonymous with grand tour failure, most recently evidenced at the Giro d'Italia where Robert Gesink failed to make any impression at all. Bauke Mollema and Laurens Ten Dam both had solid showings in the Tour de Suisse and the Criterium du Dauphiné respectively but based on the recent history, one would be forgiven for thinking that it would all come to nothing at the Tour.

 

Two weeks into the race, the team finds itself with two riders in the top 5 and a 2nd place on GC to defend. Bauke Mollema and Laurens Ten Dam have raced wisely, not digging too deep in the mountains, using their strengths in the crosswinds and both delivering the - flat - time trials of the lives on Wednesday.

 

The team management is likely to be pinching itself to see if it is dreaming and it will all be about conserving the position in the final week. Despite being 2nd overall, there are certainly no yellow jersey ambitions and Froome could very well find himself with a solid ally, should his rivals go on the attack.

 

Mollema finished 4th in the 2011 Vuelta and had a very solid ride in his debut Giro d'Italia in 2010 when he finished 12th. However, he was clearly struggling on the Ventoux and only an enormous work by teammate Ten Dam saw him limit his losses compared to Contador and Kreuziger to almost nothing.

 

While Mollema could be fading in the third week, Ten Dam will only get stronger. The Dutch diesel engine raced an impressive Tour last year, going on the attack in almost all mountain stages, and went on to finish 8th in the Vuleta. He was immensely strong yesterday and it could be a wise decision for the team to allow the loyal domestique to do his own race.

 

And the team has an extra reason to be concerned. Movistar is eager to get its revenge for the crosswind attack and should Mollema or Ten Dam get into difficulty, the strong Spanish team is likely to find an opportunity to pay back the "favour".

 

Rodriguez ready to strike

Prior to the race, expectations for Joaquin Rodriguez have been high but so far they have all come to nothing. Rumours were that the Spaniard was stronger than ever but his showing in the Pyrenees did little to back up that assessment.

 

However, the Spaniard has always been adamant that it was all about being at one's best in the very hard final week of the race and that could very well be the reason for his poor showing. Yesterday he finally made one of those accelerations near the top of the climb that has been his trademark, earning a 4th place finish in the process. If his rise continues, he could very well be one of the best climbers in the Alps. The question is whether he is willing to risk everything to reach his pre-race podium target.

 

Grand tour stars eager to make amends in the Alps

While the Tour has produced many encouraging performances, it has certainly also had its fair share of disappointments. Cadel Evans, Andy Schleck, Pierre Rolland and Thibaut Pinot all had hoped for glory but have seen their GC dreams being crushed. As it is the case for Valverde, there is only one way to make up for the disappointments: a long-distance attack in the Alps.

 

Father time may have finally caught up with Evans and his recent performances do little to suggest that he should be able to bounce back with a strong showing in the final week. On the other hand, Schleck's lack of racing and excellent recovery have always suggested that he should get close to his former level at the end of the race.

 

His defeat on the Mont Ventoux came as a surprise but when he struggled on the Ax-3-Domaines, he bounced back with a very impressive showing one day later. Should a Saxo-Tinkoff attack turn the stages into a GC battle, he may see his chances derail but it would be a big surprise not to see Schleck try a big offensive on Thursday, Friday or Saturday.

 

Pinot has claimed to be in the form of his life and he appeared to be climbing splendidly on the Pailheres. A bad descent saw him fall out of GC contention and left him depressed for some days. With the full backing of his team, he has set his sights on a strong showing in the Alps but a recent bout of illness left him weakened on the Ventoux. If he recovers well, we wouldn't be all that surprised if he shines in the final week.

 

Rolland hopes to reproduce one of his trademark attacks in the Alps and secure the polka-dot jersey in the process but nothing suggests that he is at his former level. Should the favourites get to decide at least one of the final two summit finishes, it will be very hard to deny Froome the win in the KOM classification. The rider with the most realistic chance to do that may actually not be the French Europcar captain. Instead, Mikel Nieve is climbing impressively these days and no one knows how to produce winning long-distance rides in the mountains like the tiny Basque.

 

New sprint hierarchy?

Ever since he left behind Oscar Freire in Chateauroux in 2008, Mark Cavendish has been firmly positioned at the top of the sprint hierarchy. He may have been occasionally beaten by virtue of his own or his team's mistakes but his superiority has never been doubted.

 

When the Manxman lost out in Bastia, Montpellier and Saint-Malo, it could always be explained by either crashes or a bad lead-out. When he failed to finish off a perfect teamwork in a finish in Tours that was perfectly suited to his characteristics, it became, however, apparent that he is no longer the fastest rider in the peloton. That honour now belongs to Marcel Kittel.

 

For insiders, the shift is no surprise at all. For a long time, Kittel has been able to beat Cavendish and has done so on numerous occasions, proving time after time that he is has a top speed like no one else. What is new is that it now happens on the biggest scene of them all and is exposed to a world-wide audience.

 

However, Kittel has also improved as a bike rider. He has always had a tendency to fade towards the end of the stage races and has been unable to overcome even the slightest bump on the road. This year he appears to be climbing stronger than ever and is showing no signs of slowing down at all. Those are exactly the attributes that characterize a great grand tour sprinter and proves that Kittel may have a big future in the three-week races.

 

As Andre Greipel has the best lead-out train and Kittel the most power, Cavendish could very well face some difficult years. And what would be more symbolic than Kittel edging out Cavendish on the Champs-Elysees in less than a week?

 

Sagan chasing recognition more than victories

Peter Sagan has already won a stage and if he finishes the Tour de France, he will win the green jersey. That has allowed him to take a different approach to the final part of the race where he now aims to prove that he is not your typical sprinter.

 

The stage to Lyon appeared to be perfectly suited to his characteristics and so many were surprised to see that Cannondale did not even try to bring back the early break. Instead, Sagan chose to save some energy for an attack yesterday when he aimed to finish in the top 10 on the Mont Ventoux.

 

That move came less than a week after his surprisingly strong 17th in the time trial which had almost allowed him to pick up points where no one expected it. Instead of picking up another stage win, the Slovakian is focused on putting his versatility on display.

 

We are likely to see him go on the attack in the Alps and he has surely set his sights on tomorrow's stage to Gap that is set to be won by an escapee. The sprint stages may be all but over but we have certainly not seen the last from the man who wears the most coveted sprint jersey.

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