Carlos Betancur and his Ag2r team did an impressive work to control a very aggressive peloton in today's penultimate stage but they can't expect to get it any easier in tomorrow's final leg. The short route around Nice is a very hilly one that should inspire a lot of riders to go on the attack and Ag2r face a big task if they want to make sure that Betancur arrives safely in Nice with the yellow jersey on his shoulders.

 

The course

When Paris-Nice has not ended with the Col d'Eze time trial, it has always finished with a short stage in Nice's hilly hinterland, the climb up Col d'Eze and a fast downhill to the finish on the Promenade d'Anglais. The stage has often produced some very aggressive and exciting racing as the terrain invites itself to attacks and it is the final chance to make a difference.

 

As usual, the stage starts and finishes in Nice and this year it will have a length of 128km. The start is a tough one as the first part is a long gradual uphill that passes through the intermediate sprint at the 19km mark and culminates after 33.5km at the top of the category 2 Cote de Duranus (3.9km, 4.3%). From there, the roads are slightly undulating until the riders climb the category 2 Cote de Chateauneuf (5.4km, 4.4%) which is followed by a fast descent and the category 2 Col de Calaison (6.3km, 4.4%).

 

Next up is a gradual descent that lead to the bottom of the day's hardest climb, the category 1 Cote de Peille (6.6km, 6.8%). At the top 41km remain and the riders stay at a plateau for several kilometres before they reach the descent that lead to the bottom of the Col d'Eze.

 

The famous category 1 ascent (4.3km, 6.7%) starts 19.3km from the finish. At the top, there is a short flat section that leads to the final intermediate sprint with crucial bonus seconds on offer 13.5km from the finish. Then it is time for the fast and technical descent that has several difficult bends and ends no sooner than 3km from the finish.

 

From there it is rather technical with three sharp turns coming in quick succession around the 2km to go mark. A gradually bending road leads the riders to the flamme rouge from which it is straight up the 7m wide Promenade d'Anglais to the finish. There is a small 500m climb with a 6% gradient 1500m from the finish and then a 500m descent leads to the final flat 500m. The winners of the most recent road stages in Nice were Thomas Voeckler, Amael Moinard, Antonio Colom, and Luis-Leon Sanchez who have all arrived either solo at the finish or won sprints from 2- or 3-rider groups.

 

 

 

 

The weather

Tradition - and the nickname - dictates that the Paris-Nice ends under sunny conditions and it would be very strange for this trend to be broken in what has been the hottest edition of the race in recent history. The riders can expect another beautiful day for their final stage as there will be bright sunshine throughout the entire stage and a very pleasant temperature of around 18 degrees.

 

There will be a light wind from a southern direction which means that the riders will generally have a tailwind until they reach the top of the first climb of the day. From there, they will mostly have a headwind, interspersed with several crosswind sections. There will be a cross-headwind on the run-in to the Col d'Eze and a cross-tailwind up the climb. From there it will be a cross-headwind all the way to the flamme rouge where the riders turn into a crosswind for the sprint.

 

The favourites

We were rather surprised to see that none of the riders who were outside the top 10 but still within shouting distance of the overall lead didn't try to put Ag2r under pressure by going into the early break and for most of the day, the French team had it rather easy as the early move posed no threat. Apart from a few riders from Astana, none of the top riders gave it a try on the finishing circuit which was to be expected as it was not hard enough to make a difference.

 

This means that they will have saved some energy for tomorrow's final stage which has a much harder finish than today's. This makes it much more suitable as a launch pad for attacks from the best riders in the race and we can expect Ag2r to come under a bigger pressure than they were today.

 

The first part of the stage consists of a long gradual climb and the first 33.5km are all uphill. We would be surprised if the early break again takes off almost from the gun as there is no longer any reason to hold anything back. The start will be so tough that the break is likely to contain some of the many riders that are close to the overall lead, meaning that Ag2r will have their work cut out for them and can expect a hard day of chasing.

 

In the past, the final stage to Nice has often been won by the early break as it was the case in the two most recent editions (won by Amael Moinard and Thomas Voeckler respectively). However, it will be hard for the in this year's race as several riders will have set their sights on the podium. To reach this target, they are likely to need the bonus seconds and this means that they need to bring things back together for the final showdown on Col d'Eze. As opposed to this, Ag2r will be happy to let the break swallow up the bonifications if it doesn't pose any major threat.

 

It seems that Costa is more focused on a stage win than the overall victory which seems to be beyond his reach and his Lampre-Merida team could lend a hand to the chase. Movistar will be keen to move Jose Joaquin Rojas onto the overall podium and FDJ may have similar plans for Arthur Vichot. Hence, there should be enough interest to make sure that the stage winner will be one the GC riders.

 

Both intermediate sprints could come into play. The first one comes already after 19km, and it would be no surprise if Movistar try to keep things together for Rojas to take back the one second he needs to move into 3rd. The final one comes just 1.5km from the top of the Col d'Eze where a small group of favourites could be in the lead and there will be a fierce battle for the seconds on offer just 13.5km from the line.

 

As we expect things to be together for the final climb of the Col d'Eze, we expect a war between the favourites on the ascent. With riders like Mikael Cherel, Alexis Vuillermoz, and Romain Bardet, Betancur has an excellent team to support him, and we would expect the French team to set a hard tempo to try to discourage all kinds of attack.

 

They can't expect to have it their own way though and attacks are guaranteed. Rui Costa needs to give the overall win a final shot, and Arthur Vichot will be keen to see if he can drop Rojas and Zdenek Stybar. Jakob Fuglsang has proved his aggressive nature and in-form but unfortunate riders like Wilco Kelderman and Tom-Jelte Slagter want to prove that they are some of the strongest riders in the race.

 

The Col d'Eze is certainly not a very hard climb but compared to some of the earlier ascents in this race, it is a tough one. It should prove a bit more selective than Bourigaille on stage 6 and we can expect a smaller group to crest the summit together. In 2009, riders like Alberto Contador, Antonio Colom, and Frank Schleck proved that the ascent can be used to blow thing to pieces.

 

As Betancur will be content with following wheels and Costa is unlikely to drop the race leader, the race may lack the outstanding climber that can make the climb really selective. Hence, a small group to arrive together at the top. The most interesting part may actually be the descent which is rather technical. Nibali and Costa who are both great descenders, may try to put Betancur who is no downhill specialist under pressure, and it is not unlikely that things will split even further after the top of the climb.

 

There is a also a chance that riders will try to attack on the final flat part and if Betancur is isolated at that point, it will be hard to keep everything under control. However, there is a great chance that some of his strong domestiques will have made it over the climb and they will be extremely valuable in what can be an uncontrollable finish.

 

If Betancur has a couple of domestiques on hand, the most realistic scenario is that a small group will sprint it out at the end. This means that the stage winner is likely to be a fast finisher who can climb, meaning that the name of Michael Matthews springs to mind.

 

The Australian has proved his great versatility by being one of the strongest climbers in this race and whenever the going has been tough, he has been sitting comfortably near the front. Today's uphill sprint was a bit too tough for him as he was up against lighter riders but in a flat sprint, riders like Costa, Betancur, and Slagter should have no chance. The main difficulty will be to survive the climbing but the race has to be very selective for Matthews not to be in the front group, meaning that the Australian will be the man to beat.

 

Jose Joaquin Rojas has defied expectations by staying up there all the way from the early sprint stages to the hard climbing in the second half of the race. It is no surprise that the Spanish sprinter is a great climber but for him to limit his losses to just 11 seconds on the Mur de Fayence is a major achievement. He now has the podium within reach and he will go all out to try to make it up the Col d'Eze with the best riders. Unfortunately, he has a habit of not winning sprints where he should be the fastest rider and the climbing may take a bit of sting out of his legs but if he is there at the finish, he will be a danger man.

 

Today we had picked Zdenek Stybar for the win but the Czech appeared to be suffering in the end. In Fayence, however, he proved that he is one of the best climbers in this race and he should make the selection if the race becomes very hard. He not only has a fast uphill sprint, he has an excellent turn of speed on flat roads as well. Just recall how he beat Maximilano Richeze in a sprint in the Eneco Tour and Philippe Gilbert in the Vuelta. To save his podium spot, he needs to be in the mix in the final sprint and he could very well take the win.

 

Tony Gallopin was not at his top level when the race hit the climbs on Wednesday and this means that he is only 12th on GC. In recent days, however, he has been riding excellently, finishing 6th in the queen stage and looking comfortable on the climbs in today's stage. He should make the final selection and he has a very fast sprint, even on flat roads. He will be eager to take the bonus seconds that elevates him into the top 10.

 

Tom-Jelte Slagter has taken two wins in this race and tomorrow he could take the third one. The Dutchman is much better in an uphill sprint than in a flat one and he will probably have no chance if the group is a big one. However, he has proved that he is one of the best climbers in the race and if the race becomes very hard, he will have a chance. If only 4-5 riders arrive at the finish, he will be one of the fastest and have a great shot at another win.

 

Today Rui Costa took his 5th second place in 2014 and the Portuguese was clearly frustrated. As he can't take the overall win on bonus seconds, he will probably go all out for the stage win. He has a fast sprint but against the likes of Matthews and Stybar, it will be hard. If he can make the race hard and very selective, however, he could be one of the fastest guys in the group that sprints at the end.

 

Finally, we will select out joker. Arthur Vichot has been riding really well in this race. He has shown that he is one of the best climbers and he has a fast sprint at the end. He rarely wins those sprints and he needs to overcome that handicap to come away with the win. If the race becomes selective, however, he should be one of the fastest riders in the group.

 

CyclingQuotes' stage winner pick: Michael Matthews

Other winner candidates: Jose Joaquin Rojas, Zdenek Stybar

Outsiders: Tony Gallopin, Tom-Jelte Slagter, Rui Costa

Joker: Arthur Vichot