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Starting at 14.25 CET, you can follow the final stage for the pure sprinters on CyclingQuotes.com/live

Photo: Sirotti

PARIS - NICE

RACE PROFILE
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NEWS
11.03.2014 @ 14:20 Posted by Emil Axelgaard

Moreno Hofland showed his strength in uphill sprints when he held off John Degenkolb to take the first WorldTour win of his career and now there is only one chance left for the pure sprinters to make their mark in this year's Paris-Nice. That opportunity comes tomorrow when a finish on the Magny-Cours motor circuit will be the perfect scene for a true battle between the fastest guys on two wheels.

 

The course

The third stage will be the final opportunity for the pure sprinters as the riders continue their journey towards Nice by heading over 180km from Toucy to a spectacular finish on the Motorsport circuit of Magny-Cours. From the start, the riders travel along almost completely flat roads in a southern direction and the only element that breaks the monotony is the category 3 Cote de La Chapelle-Saint-André (2.1km, 4.2%) which comes after 74km of racing. The first intermediate sprint comes 4km further down the road in the city of Varzy.

 

34km from the finish, the riders reach the city of La Machine where they will contest the final intermediate sprint before turning right to head in a predominant westerly direction for the final part of the stage. The roads are still flat and will be so all the way to the finish on the Magny-Cours circuit.

 

The riders enter the circuit 4.5km from the finish after a series of 4 sharp turns just after the 5km to go mark and shortly after getting onto the famous roads, they will do another sharp left-hand turn. Then the roads are straight until 3.5km from the finish where a sharp left-hand turn will lead onto the final section. It consists of long straight roads that are disrupted by two 180-degree turns 2.7km and 1.8km from the finish respectively. Inside the final kilomtre, the riders do a sweeping 180-degree turn before taking the final left-hand turn 500m from the finish. There will be plenty of room in the sprint on the 8m wide road. The circuit is almost completely flat but it is always either very slightly up- or downhill. The riders will descend from the 2km to go mark until 500m from the line from where the roads are slightly ascending.

 

 

 

 

The weather

Unless you had planned to wreak havoc on the peloton, there has been no reason to complain about the weather for this year's edition of Paris-Nice and nothing will change for tomorrow's stage. Again it will be day with bright sunshine where the temperatures are expected to reach a maximum of a pleasant 17 degrees.

 

Until now, there has been very little wind and tomorrow will be even less windy than today. A light wind will blow from a northeastern direction and this means that the riders will have a crosswind in the first part, and a cross-tailwind for the second part of the stage.

 

On the Magny-Cours circuit, the riders will do several sweeping U-turns but will generally have a crosswind for the final 5km. Inside the final kilometre, it will gradually turn into a tailwind and the wind will be directly in their back when they hit the 500m finishing straight.

 

The favourites

Among the sprinters in this year's Paris-Nice, there are several good climbers and so many of them may still get a chance to show off their fast speed later in the race but the only guaranteed bunch sprint opportunity left is tomorrow's. This means that there is no way that they will miss it and there will be added motivation and prestige due to the fact that it finishes on the Magny-Cours motor circuit.

 

When the route was announced, tomorrow's stage could have been a really dangerous one as there would again have been a big risk that crosswinds would split the peloton. With the summerlike condition in France, however, this threat has completely disappeared and even though we will see the same kind of nervous racing as we have seen in the past two days, there is no chance that anything else that crashes will split the peloton.

 

Hence, we should be in for a straightforward sprint stage but after today's near-miss where the break seemed to have a good chance of staying away to the finish, the sprint teams will probably keep things a bit more under control. It will again be up to FDJ, Giant-Shimano, and Omega Pharma-Quick Step to do the work, with the potential of some help from Orica-GreenEDGE and Europcar.

 

Today's sprint was a strange one as it was extremely technical and slightly uphill. Tomorrow's should be much more straightforward and more of a real bunch sprint. There may be a lot of corners on the motor circuit but they will be more sweeping and the riders should be forced to brake much less. At the same time, the road is very wide, meaning that it will be much easier to move up, and the battle for position will have less importance. The final 500m will again be slightly uphill but the gradients should be less severe than they were today.

 

Due to the nature of today's sprint, we have picked John Degenkolb as our favourite but tomorrow the pendulum again swings back to Bouhanni. This sprint is more about speed than positioning and in that area, Bouhanni is number one. He didn't have the legs to compete with Degenkolb in the uphill finale today but that we shouldn't see a similar scenario tomorrow.

 

Only two factors speak against a Bouhanni win. First of all, he is still suffering from pain in his knee after his crash. Today it didn't appear to hamper him too much but there is always a risk that things get worse. Secondly, one of his key lead-out men Geoffrey Soupe is still suffering from gastroenteritis and this leaves him with just Anthony Geslin and Sebastien Chavanel for support in the finale. However, Bouhanni is famously known for his risky approach to the hectic finales and he should be able to position himself well in time for the sprint to start.

 

Bouhanni's biggest rival will again be Degenkolb whose main asset is again his strong lead-out train. Things got messed up in today's finale due to the technical nature of the finish but the team again proved that when it comes to power in the finish, they are only matched by Omega Pharma-Quick Step.

 

Degenkolb may not have the same speed as Bouhanni but if his team manages to deliver him on the front, he is certainly fast enough to win. At the same time, the slightly uphill finishing straight is to his advantage and he should also benefit from the tailwind and he is less aerodynamic than the smaller Bouhanni. Degenkolb is an excellent climber and may get opportunities later in the week as well but tomorrow's stage is the final day where he can expect to have the full benefit of his main asset: his good lead-out train.

 

Only Omega Pharma-Quick Step have the firepower to battle with Giant-Shimano in the finishes and when the riders entered the decisive turns in today's stage, the Belgian team had won the battle. Unfortunately, they had lost Tom Boonen in the process but the team proved that they are capable of delivering their sprinter at the very front.

 

Tomorrow's sprint should suit a power sprinter like Boonen perfectly as it is less about acceleration. With Gianni Meersman no longer in GC contention, all questions about the sprint leadership are gone and tomorrow it should be all for their biggest star. Boonen doesn't have the speed of Bouhanni and Degenkolb and would have preferred a harder race but he may take the win by virtue of his lead-out train.

 

The only rider that can challenge Bouhanni when it comes to pure speed is Bryan Coquard. Until now, the Frenchman has not had much luck as he has always been badly positioned in the sprints. Tomorrow's bigger road means that he will have a much better chance to move and this makes the stage his biggest opportunity in the entire race. At the same time, it is a sprint more about speed than anything else and if he finally manages to overcome his positioning difficulties, he will have a great shot at the win.

 

Alexander Kristoff proved his good form by finishing 4th in today's sprint. The uphill finish suited him down to the ground and tomorrow's easier finale will be less of an advantage for him. Kristoff may have some support guys in the finale but he is mostly left on his own when the sprint starts. However, he is hugely consistent and always manages to position himself well. On paper, he is up against faster rivals but if he manages to position himself and possibly get the jump on his rivals, he will have a chance.

 

Yesterday we picked Moreno Hofland as our joker and we were happy to see him live up to our predictions. However, that sprint was perfect for the young Dutchman who excels in uphill sprints and tomorrow's high-speed finish should suit him less. He is not as fast as the pure sprinters and so it will be difficult to make it two in a row. However, he has a very strong team at his disposal and again the final section in slightly uphill. If he again manages to get the jump on his rivals, he could repeat today's win.

 

Finally, we will select our joker. Orica-GreenEDGE have been extremely unlucky so far. On stage 1, they had planned to do the sprint for Matthew Goss who was caught out behind the crash. Today Michael Matthews was their man but he went down in the same crash as Meersman. That forced them to make a late change of plans to work for Jens Keukeleire but the team have shown that they have great firepower in the end.

 

Tomorrow's stage is more about speed and so they are again likely to put their eggs in the Goss basket. The Australian is yet to prove that he can reach his past standards but history proves that he has a very fast sprint in his legs. If the team can finally avoid all their bad luck, they have the strength to deliver Goss in a perfect position and he may still have the speed to finish it off.

 

CyclingQuotes' stage winner pick: Nacer Bouhanni

Other winner candidates: John Degenkolb, Tom Boonen

Outsiders: Bryan Coquard, Alexander Kristoff, Moreno Hofland

Joker: Matthew Goss

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