The GC riders were pleased to get safely through today's wet and slippery carnage and are now ready for their first small test of condition when the Giro continues with its first uphill finish. The final climb, however, is no tough affair and even though the sprinters will now step into the background, it's a day for the puncheurs, not the climbers.

 

The course

After four flat stages, it will finally be the time for the riders to test their climbing legs slightly but it won't be a day for the GC riders to make their mark. The stage brings the riders over 203km from Taranto at the Ionian sea to Viggiano in the hilly interior of the country for the first small uphill finish in the race. The first part of this medium mountain stage runs entirely along the Ionian Sea, following a wide, well-paved road; the route then heads for the slightly uphill Montalbano Ionico intermediate sprint, followed by a challenging descent leading to the Agri River valley bottom.

 

The feed zone is set around Sant’Arcangelo, and the route then heads for the Valico di San Chirico KOM (8.0km, 4.2%, max. 8%) and then back to the valleybottom road, on the Pertusillo dam. After crossing Villa d’Agri, the stage course climbs towards Viggiano (8.1km 4.1%, max. 8%), where a 14km circuit begins after the first passage of the line. It's a rather easy climb that gradually gets steeper and steeper. The first part has a gradient of 1-2% and then a 4-5% section follows. The final 2.6km are the hardest as they ramp up at an average gradient of 6.2%.

 

The circuit has a total length of 13.6km. After the passage over the finish line, the route rises for about 1 km at a gradient of 7%, then it takes a technically very challenging descent, until the bend that leads back to the finish line.  The final 5km are uphill with an average gradient of 4.6% and a maximum of 8% and again it just gets steeper and steeper. After a first section with a 3-4% gradient, the final 1.75km have a gradient of 6.2%. The last km has a 7% uphill gradient and the home stretch, entirely uphill (with a 6% slope), is 100m long, on 6m wide, asphalted roadway.

 

 

 

The weather

After their rainy stages in Ireland, the riders had hoped been looking forward to the Italian sunny conditions but today Italy certainly wasn't its usual self and the stage was much more affected by the rainy weather than any of the two first road stages had been. Unfortunately, there is again a chance of rain in tomorrow's stage but most probably it will be dry by the time the riders reach the tricky finishing circuit.

 

Rain will be falling in the morning but around noon the sun will come out and the riders should do the stage under a beautiful, sunny sky. This also means that the roads should be dry by the time the peloton reaches the tricky descent in the finale. It won't be very hot though as the temperature at the finish will reach a maximum of just 13 degrees.

 

There will be a moderate wind form a northwesterly direction for the entire stage which means the riders will have a cross-headwind in the first part of the stage. On the final circuit, they will have a twilsind on the descent and a headwind on the climb before they turn into a tailwind for the final 2km.

 

The favourites

After three days for the sprinters, tomorrow's stage marks a change of scenery and we should see a guard of riders come to the fore. Despite the stage offering a first summit finish, however, one shouldn't expect the GC riders battle it out yet. The final climb may be rather long but only the final kilometre is steep and this means that it is a stage more for the puncheurs than the climbers. For most of the GC riders, it will be about avoiding any splits and they will mostly enter the stage with a defensive mindset. The finale of the stage is hard enough to produce the first separation though and we should see many riders be sent out the back door on the final circuit.

 

The stage is unlikely to be one for an early breakaway. The GC is still rather close and Orica-GreenEDGE have stated their intention of defending the jersey for as long as possible. There is no chance that they will give it away without a fight and they have also made it clear that tomorrow's stage is one of their big targets for this race. Hence, the Australian team will try to keep things together for an uphill sprint and they may get some help from teams like Bardiani and Neri Sottoli if those squads don't have a rider in the early break. It would be no surprise to see Sky lend them hand too.

 

Already the first time up the climb we can expect the pace to be rather fast. The GC riders don't fear the climb but the technical descent will be a concern - especially if the roads are wet. If a team drops the hammer on the downhill section, splits could occur and so all riders want to enter it in the front positions. This will automatically ramp up the pace in the final part of the climb, making it very difficult to escape.

 

A brave rider may try to attack on the descent but it will be hard to stay away on the final climb whose easy first section clearly favours the peloton. As the wind doesn't favour an escape either, it takes a very strong rider to stay away in these conditions.

 

Hence, the most likely outcome is an uphill sprint. As it is only the final kilometre that is really steep, a lot of riders will be able to handle the first part of the climb. However, the length of the ascent should rule out most of the sprinters and it will only be the very strongest of the fast finishers that have a chance in a finish that suits the puncheurs perfectly.

 

The finish seems to be tailor-made for Enrico Battaglin. The Italian won a stage of last year's Giro when he emerged as the strongest in an uphill sprint in Serra San Bruno. That sprint came at the end of a much longer climb but Battaglin is a versatile rider that masters almost any kind of uphill sprint and there is little doubt that both he and Bardiani have red-circled tomorrow's stage as an obvious target.

 

Last year Battaglin proved how exceptionally strong he is in this kind of terrain. This year, however, his condition is a bit uncertain as he broke his left metacarpal in Milan-Sanremo and was out of competition until April 17. Since then he has built his form for the Giro d'Italia but hasn't taken any kind of results to confirm that he is at his best.

 

However, he was able to follow his team in the team time trial which is no mean feat for a rider that certainly doesn't excel in the timed events and usually gets dropped in these kind of stages. This is a small indication that he is going well and the statements from the Bardiani camp further suggest that he is no longer hampered by his unfortunate setback. The team also has Sonny Colbrelli in their ranks but he is stronger in a flat sprint that comes at the end of a hard race while Battaglin is more suited to this kind of finish. If he is firing on all cylinders, he will be hard to beat in such an uphill sprint and so he is our favourite to win the stage.

 

Neri Sottoli will also have marked tomorrow's stage out as one of their best options and in fact they have two formidable cards to play. Such an uphill sprint suits both Simone Ponzi and Mauro Finetto down to the ground and the main task for manager Luca Scinto will be to find out which rider to focus on.

 

While Finetto is a better climber, Ponzi is a faster finisher and tomorrow's stage seems to be best suited to the former Astana rider. After seeing his progress stalling, Ponzi has been the next rider in a long line that has been reinvigorated by joining Scinto's team. Already in early February, he won the GP Costa degli Etruschi and after having overcome a small injury setback, he went on to win the Dwars door Drenthe and the GP Nobili Rubinetterie. Those result currently sees him top the UCI Europe Tour rankings.

 

Ponzi is an excellent classics rider that excels on short, sharp climbs and has a very fast sprint, especially if the finishing straight is uphill. At his best, he is up there with the real elite as he proved when he finished 2nd in last year's GP de Montreal. He hasn't shown too much over the last few weeks but the Giro d'Italia is his big objective and even though he has often been very inconsistent, there is no reason not to believe that he is in great condition. He is certainly fast enough to challenge Battaglin and we could very well see the stage come down to a battle between two riders from the wildcard teams.

 

Team Sky have entered this year's Giro with a very unusual mindset as they are more focused on stage wins than the general classification. They got close to a win in Dublin when Ben Swift was passed by Marcel Kittel just metres from the line but that result was more of a bonus. They know that none of their fast finishers Swift and Edvald Boasson Hagen are pure sprinters and they have especially set their sights on the lumpier stages.

 

Tomorrow's stage is a great opportunity for the British team and their big concern seems to be to find out which of their fast riders to focus on. Swift has clearly been given the leadership in the flat stages while Boasson Hagen will have his chance when it becomes harder. Tomorrow's stage suits both as they both excel in this kind of uphill sprints and both will love to have their chance.

 

Based on previous performances, however, we think that the finish suits the Norwegian the best. If it had been less steep, Swift may have been the better option but with a 7% gradient, it tips the balance in favour of Boasson Hagen. At his best, the Norwegian is a strong contender in this kind of terrain and he has mixed it up with the best in far tougher uphill sprints. In 2012, he finished 2nd at the Worlds and even though the final sprint was flat, he showed his great strength by following Alejandro Valverde on the Cauberg.

 

Boasson Hagen's progress has clearly stalled over the last few years but in 2014 he has been stronger in the classics than he has been recently. This indicates that he may be back on track and we wouldn't be surprised to see him produce some great performances in this Giro.

 

His condition is a bit uncertain as he hasn't raced since his classics campaign and over the last few years he has skipped the Giro in favour of the Tour de France. However, his decision to ride the Italian grand tour is partly motivated by his plans to find a new team that make it important for him to achieve some personal results. He will have more opportunities in the Giro than in the Tour and so he will probably be ready to go. The team will probably only make the decision about leadership after the first passage of the climb but if he gets the chance in tomorrow's stage, Boasson Hagen could take his second Giro stage win in Viggiano.

 

Diego Ulissi is riding the Giro with a focus on stage wins and doesn't target the general classification. He won't mix it up with the best in the high mountains but he excels in the hilly terrain. Tomorrow's stage may be a bit too easy to his liking and he may have better options later in the race but there is no doubt that he will give it a try.

 

Over the last year, Ulissi has repeatedly shown how fast he is in an uphill sprint. Last year he won Milan-Turin, Giro dell'Emilia and Coppa Sabatini and especially the latter has a finish that is not too different from the one in tomorrow's stage. Last year he also won an uphill sprint in the Tour de Pologne and even though it came at the end of a much longer climb, the gradients were comparable with the ones on tomorrow's finishing climb. He was disappointed by his performance in the Ardennes where he paid the price for the long distances. Tomorrow's stage is not too long and this should allow Ulissi to be in the mix.

 

If Ponzi is not up for the challenge, Neri Sottoli has another card to play. Over the last few months, Mauro Finetto has been reinvigorated and he has been in the top 10 in almost all the harder Italian one-day races in the second half of 2013 and the first part of 2014.

 

Tomorrow's stage suits him perfectly as he excels in uphill sprints and he has been flying all season. Most recently, he performed really well at the Giro del Trentino whose terrain should actually be a bit too hard for him. He may be better suited to Thursday's harder finish and there is a big chance that he will be riding in support of Ponzi. However, the team could also decide to let both riders try their hand in the sprint and if he gets his chance, Finetto should be up there.

 

Michael Matthews may be mostly known as a sprinter but he is a much more versatile athlete than a traditional fast finisher. Last year he even dropped Francisco Mancebo on a big mountain in the Tour of Utah and this year he finished just outside the top 10 in the Amstel Gold Race and 2nd in the Brabantse Pijl.

 

Matthews and Orica-GreenEDGE have made no secret of the fact that tomorrow's stage is a big target and sports director Matthew White has described it as Matthews' best chance of the entire race. He knows that he won't beat the likes of Kittel and Bouhanni in the pure bunch sprints but on the harder days he has his chance, especially if the sprint is slightly uphill.

 

Matthews has been flying all year and overcome some very hard climbs in some pretty big races. He is definitely a winner candidate in tomorrow's stage as well. As a past winner of the Stirling stage in the Tour Down Under, he excels in uphill sprints but we are slightly concerned that the final kilometre may be a bit too steep and the climb a bit too long for him to mix it up with some of the puncheurs.  His own team has expressed similar concerns but Matthews claims to be climbing much better than he is sprinting at the moment. He would love to win a stage with the maglia rosa on his shoulders but we think that the finish could turn out to be too hard for him. Nonetheless, he is a clear outsider and should definitely defend his jersey.

 

Until now Trek have been focusing on Giacomo Nizzolo in the sprints but tomorrow it should be time for a change. Fabio Felline excels in these kind of finishes as he proved when he took second behind Battaglin in Serra San Bruno 12 months ago. He is riding this race with a focus on stage wins and tomorrow's stage is one of his best options.

 

Felline has been riding solidly all season but still seems to lack the final bit to beat the very best. He may again come up short tomorrow and we doubt that he will be able to beat Battaglin in this kind of sprint. However, he is definitely an outsider and if things come together, he could take the biggest win of his career.

 

Finally, we will select our jokers. Cannondale have their focus on Elia Viviani and Ivan Basso in this race but this doesn't mean that other riders won't get their chance. Tomorrow's stage seems to suit Oscar Gatto and Moreno Moser really well and at least one of those riders should give it a go.

 

Moser is not yet in his best condition as knee problems forced him to take a lengthy break and so he is probably more focused on stages later in the race. However, Gatto showed solid condition in the recent Tour de Romandie and should fancy his chances in tomorrow's stage. Gatto is a solid climber but has mostly excelled in flat sprints. The final kilometre may be a bit too hard for him but it would be unwise to rule out the fast Italian.

 

The same goes for Ben Swift who has also made it clear that tomorrow's stage could be a target. As already said, we think that the finish suits Boasson Hagen a bit better but Swift definitely also has a chance. When he won a stage in the Tour of the Basque Country, he proved how well he is climbing and he has won uphill sprints in the Tour de Pologne in the past.

 

As it is the case for Matthews, we think that the final kilometre could be a bit too tough for the strong Brit and so we think that Sky will be riding in service for Boasson Hagen. With Swift also being in contention for the points jersey, however, he may be given his chance and if that happens, he could create a surprise.

 

CyclingQuotes' stage winner pick: Enrico Battaglin

Other winner candidates: Simone Ponzi, Edvald Boasson Hagen

Outsiders: Diego Ulissi, Mauro Finetto, Michael Matthews, Fabio Felline

Joker: Oscar Gatto, Ben Swift