The sprinters thought that they would have three opportunities in this year's Eneco Tour but with two of the three stages already completed, they haven't had the chance to sprint for the win yet. They will get their final opportunity today on a stage that has bunch kick written all over it. A tricky finale will, however, may things more complicated and so positioning and acceleration will be the key to success. Starting at 14.25 you can follow the stage on CyclingQuotes.com/live.
The course
The sprinters get their final chance in today's fourth stage which starts in the Belgian city of Essen just south of the border. The riders first complete a small loop in the area south of the start city before they cross the border and head towards the finish in the Dutch city of Vlijmen. The 169,6km is once again completely flat and perfectly suited to another bunch sprint for the many fast finishers that will line up at the start line.
With 56,6km to go, the riders cross the finish line for the first time and from there they will tackle the almost quadratic 28,3km finishing circuit twice. To win the stage, the riders will have to overcome a very technical finish in Vlijmen. With 1,5km to go, they will turn left in a roundabout and just before the flamme rouge, they will take a 90-degree right-hand turn. That is followed by a sharp 100-degree left-hand turn 500m from the line and a 100-degree right-hand turn which leads onto the 400m finishing straight. Positioning and acceleration will be key in this very tricky finish to the final sprint stage of the race and to come out triumphant you will have to get into that final corner in one of the top 3 positions.
The weather
The weather conditions haven't changed much for the first three stages and it won't be too different today either. Yesterday the riders had bright sunshine but today they won't get the chance to see much from the sun. On a cloudy, dry day, the temperature will reach its maximum at around 20 degrees while there will once again only be a light wind, this time coming from the south. This means that the riders will mostly have a cross-tailwind when they travel towards the finishing circuit on which they will have all different kinds of wind direction. During the final 2km, the riders should alternately have a head- and a crosswind when they tackle the many difficult turns before finally getting onto the finishing straight where they will have to deal with a crosswind.
The favourites
As it has been the case on the previous stages, a long-distance breakaway won't have much of a chance today. The sprinters were furious to once again miss out yesterday and especially Lotto-Belisol will do their utmost to bring everything back together for a bunch sprint. They will be assisted by FDJ.fr who are eager to defend Demare's leader's jersey and set him up for another win in a finale that could suit him well. Should the breakaway turn out to be more resistant than expected Garmin-Sharp, Belkin and Orica-GreenEdge are all likely to chip in as well.
That makes a bunch sprint the most likely outcome but with this tricky finale, no one can rule out that the sprinters will once again be denied. The main reason for the failures of the sprinters is the surprising lack of strength from the usually well-drilled lead-out trains. On stage 1, Belkin hit the front too early, forcing Theo Bos to open a gap to his teammate Mark Renshaw, and yesterday it was Lotto who mistimed their acceleration, prompting Greipel to back off a bit and allow lead-out man Jurgen Roelandts to go off the front. At that point, none of the other teams had enough of their trains left to take control and bring everything back together. Given the strength of the sprint-heavy rosters, that is somewhat of a surprise and may be a testament to the high level of the sprinting field which has forced the fast finishers to burn out their teammates just to stay in a good position in the run-in to the line while the very nervous and windy conditions for yesterday's stage of course also had its say.
With Marcel Kittel being far from his best, Argos-Shimano chose to support Tom Veelers in yesterday's sprint with Kittel doing an awful lot of work to keep his teammates in position in the hectic finale. No one can rule out the possibility that Kittel feels better today but most likely the Dutch team will once again give Veelers one of his rare chances to chase personal success. This leaves Andre Greipel as the fastest sprinter in the expected bunch kick.
Had Greipel had his usual Hansen-Sieberg-Roelandts-Henderson train at his disposal, he would be almost unbeatable in today's finish. There would be a great chance that his Lotto team would string out the peloton and get into the final turns in the first positions, thus delivering the Gorilla perfectly to the line. With Sieberg, Hansen and Henderson all absent, that is now less likely to happen. His team did a good job to stay in control for much of the run-in towards the finish yesterday but burnt their matches way too early, leaving Roelandts on the front with more than 1km to go. Greipel was left to fend for himself in the sprint for 4th and was boxed in as a consequence. He finally found a gap and came fast at the end to finish 2nd behind Giacomo Nizzolo but the battle for position has never been one of Greipel's strengths. With positioning being crucial today, Greipel is not as big a favourite as most would suggest. If he gets into a good position for the final turns, he is still the best winner candidate but it will require an awful lot of work to get there.
Instead, we will point to Theo Bos as our stage winner pick. His Belkin team has been impressive so far and would love to take a stage win on home soil in Lars Boom's home city. With Maarten Maarten Tjallingii, Jos Van Emden, Graeme Brown and Mark Renshaw, Bos has one of the best lead-out trains around and it was no surprise to see the team take control on stage 1. Yesterday, they missed out completely, having used up too much energy in the fierce crosswinds but Boom saved their day by his gutsy late move. Today they will be able to save themselves for the finale and it will be no surprise if Renshaw enters those final turns in first position with Bos in his wheel.
Argos-Shimano has the best train in this race but still hasn't got everything right. They will get their final chance today and in a final where team support is extremely crucial, the team has a good chance of taking the win, even if Kittel is still not ready to sprint himself. With Degenkolb also not at his best, Veelers could be their man for today. Usually Kittel's final lead-out man, he is a very capable sprinter himself who finished 3rd, 4th and 6th in sprint stages in last year's Tour when he took over sprinting duties from sick teammate Kittel. The Dutchman will be very hard to beat, should his team string out things in the run-in to the line.
Tyler Farrar is another rider who could shine in today's finish. His team has no GC ambitions in this race and is solely dedicated to their American sprinter. His 3rd place in the difficult uphill finish on stage 2 proves that he is in splendid condition and he was also the only Garmin rider to make the first split in the crosswinds yesterday. As we have previously claimed, he has a very strong team to support him. Until now, Ramunas Navardauskas, Alex Rasmussen, Raymond Kreder, Koldo Fernandez and Robert Hunter haven't got things right, leaving Farrar alone in the hectic finales, but few riders is more capable in the lead-out role than Hunter and that could make all the difference today.
Race leader Arnaud Demare won a sprint stage in the Tour de Suisse which had a similarly technical finish. Few riders have the same kick out of the corners as the young Frenchman and for him the real challenge will come in the run-in to the final turns. If he gets onto the finishing straight in one of the first positions, he will be almost impossible to beat but we doubt that it will happen. In a field loaded with sprinters, he usually has great difficulties getting into and staying in position for the sprint and he often misses completely out in the hectic finales. That was the case on both stages 1 and 3 and with his team having to do some work to defend the jersey, it will be hard for Demare to win in a finish that is tailor-made to him.
Orica-GreenEdge is another strong sprint team who hasn't set things up perfectly yet. That's what the team hopes to do today to finally deliver their Lithuanian sprinter Aidis Kruopis to the line. On stage 1, it was the Australian team which emerged as the strongest in the finale when it was the only team who tried to reel in Renshaw but their effort left Kruopis in the wind too early. It was, however, a testament to the strength of Daryl Impey as a lead-out man and the South African can make the difference for his Lithuanian captain in today's tricky finale.
Finally, we will point to young Giacomo Nizzolo who has finished 2nd and 1st in the two bunch sprints for the minor placings. After stage 1, he was surprised to be going so well and yesterday his good sensations were confirmed. He may not have a team to control the finale but Danilo Hondo is a wily lead-out man who always knows how to bring his Italian teammate into a good position. That was exactly what happened yesterday and if the veteran German can repeat that performance, Nizzolo could take his second ever stage win in the race.
CyclingQuotes' stage winner pick: Theo Bos
Other winner candidates: Andre Greipel, Tom Veelers
Outsiders: Tyler Farrar, Arnaud Demare, Aidis Kuopis, Giacomo Nizzolo
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