The sprinters were denied by wily Mark Renshaw yesterday and many of them may have to postpone their quest for further success for another day. The second stage sends the riders into the heartland of the Flemish Ardennes and finishes with some of the climbs that are known from the Brabantse Pijl. A 5% uphill finish will make for a tough man's sprint and the sprinters will have to mix it up with the puncheurs to get their first win. Starting at 14.00 you can follow the stage on CyclingQuotes.com/live.
The GC could already come slightly into play on the second day when the riders head 176,9km from yesterday's finish in Ardooie to the Bruxelles suburb of Vorst. From the start, the riders pass Kortrijk and Harelbeke to head into the Flemish heartland of cycling. When the riders reach Ronse, they will tackle some of the famous hellingen that are known from the Tour of Flanders and some of the other Flemish spring classics. The Cote de Trieu (1,1km, 8%) is first up after 45,8km racing and is followed by the Kruisberg (1km, 6%, partly cobbled) 7,5km further up the road. From there the riders head up the lesser-known Mont Saint Laurent (1,3km, 6,5%, partly cobbled) and Mont (1,7km,4,7%) before the roads once again flatten out as the riders leave the Flemish Ardennes to head towards Bruxelles.
As they get closer to the Belgian capital, the terrain once again gets more difficult as the riders face some of the climbs that are known from the hilly Brabantse Pijl which is held in the area just south of Bruxelles. With 19,1km to go, the riders reach the top of the Alsemberg (1,2km, 4%) and with 13,9km still to race, they crest the summit of the Bruine Put (0,8km, 8,2%). There will be bonus seconds on offer midway up the first climb and 100m after the top of the second which should spice the finale up.
From there it's a fast downhill and flat run towards the finish line in Vorst but the race has a difficult sting in the tail. The final 1,5km follow a mostly straight road but the final 1000m are all uphill with an average gradient of 5%. We should see a real power sprint at the end and we could see the peloton split up a bit on the tough finishing sprint even if it is unlikely that any of the overall contenders will lose time today.
The riders enjoyed fine conditions for yesterday's first stage and they should be in for another beautiful day of racing. On a partly sunny day, the temperatures will reach the 20-degree mark and as it was the case yesterday, there will only be a light wind from a western direction. Hence, the riders will have a tailwind for most of the day before turning into a crosswind for the final 35km. Yesterday Omega Pharma-Quick Step tried to split things up a bit but the wind wasn't strong enough and it should be the same today.
The lumpy profile plays slightly into the hands of a breakaway but with the GC still close, the big teams are unlikely to allow escapees any kind of success. As a number of classics specialists also fancy their chances on the uphill finish, the peloton will be loaded with teams that have a genuine interest in keeping everything together for an uphill sprint. The Eneco Tour is not known for its many successful breakaways and today won't be the day that breaks the tradition.
With everything set for an uphill finish, the stage winner will be one of the punchier sprinters or classics specialists. One of those is Jens Keukeleire who is in the form of his life as he proved last week when he celebrated his recent contract extension by taking two stage wins in the Vuelta a Burgos. He left that race early to focus on his big home race in which he wore the leader's jersey last year, and there is no doubt that he has red-circled today's stage. His two stage wins in Burgos were taken in finishes that were almost identical to today's and while he may have to go up against a higher level of competition today, he is our favourite to win the stage.
Yesterday his team did an awful lot of work in the finale to keep themselves safe and prepare the sprint for Aidis Kruopis but in the end they ran out of manpower and the Lithuanian hit the front way too early, ultimately finishing a modest 30th. Having learnt from yesterday's failure, they will play it more conservatively today and Keukeleire will be confident that he has one of the best lead-out men for this kind of finish in Daryl Impey. If Impey manages to bring Keukeleire into a good position, the Belgian showed in Burgos that he knows how to time his kick to perfection.
World champion Philippe Gilbert still hunts his first success in the rainbow jersey and this week offers him three different possibilities to chase a win. The first of those comes today in a finish that is tailor-made to his characteristics. Few are capable of matching his kick on an uphill finishing straight when he is at his peak and so today could finally be his day. A win and 10 bonus seconds would also set him well up for a high overall result.
The main concern is his condition as he hasn't been on fire at any point in the season so far. However, he came out of the Tour in good condition last year and hopes to reap the benefits from his three weeks in France once again. He finished 2nd in the Belgian time trial championships two days ago which shows that he is not going too bad and with a very strong team to support him, he will be a danger man.
On paper John Degenkolb would be our favourite for today's stage which is perfect for the powerful German who broke through on the biggest scene by winning a similar stage to Lyon in the 2010 Dauphiné. His team missed out yesterday when Marcel Kittel's train broke into pieces in the hectic finale and the Dutchmen have vowed to take their revenge today, this time going all in for Degenkolb. When we are a little reluctant to make Degenkolb our stage winner pick, it is due to the fact that he was married on Saturday and hasn't raced since the Tour. With all those things going on, he may not be in his peak condition at the moment.
Matti Breschel loves these kind of uphill finishes and he showed in the recent Tour of Denmark that he is riding strongly right now. He won a similar sprint on stage 2 before going on to claiming the hilly queen stage one day later. Yesterday his team missed out in the sprint but today they are eager to take revenge with their in-form Dane. The former world's silver medallist has not had his best season but usually gets into form at this time of the season and today could be the day for him to take his first WorldTour win since 2009.
Andre Greipel was the big loser yesterday as he would have won the stage, had Renshaw not slipped clear. Today's finish is not perfectly suited to his characteristics but it would be a mistake to rule out the fast German. His team has vowed to give it a go with the Gorilla and his sprint yesterday proved that he hasn't slowed much down since the Tour. With Jurgen Roelandts as a lead-out man, he has the perfect kind of support for his kind of finish and he has won difficult uphill sprints in the past. Today is certainly not his best chance for success but we would not be too surprised if he makes up for yesterday's failure on the first possible occasion.
Elia Viviani may be regarded as a pure sprinter but he is actually rather resistant on the hills also. He proved that when he won a tough stage of the Criterium du Dauphiné earlier this year but what really marks him out as a danger man for today is his second place in the Zakopane stage of last year's Tour de Pologne. The uphill finish in that stage - this year won by Thor Hushovd - is very similar to today's and Viviani appears to be riding well, having recently won two stages and the overall in the Tour of Elk Grove. His 5th place finish yesterday confirmed his good feelings and he could very well be in the mix today.
Finally, we would like to point to Giacomo Nizzolo. The Italian has had a fabulous season so far with a good showing in the Giro and a dominant performance in the Tour of Luxembourg. Few sprinters get better over the climbs than Nizzolo and he was greatly encouraged by his sensations yesterday. The uphill finish should suit him well and with Danilo Hondo at his side, he couldn't wish for any better team support. He could very well do even better than yesterday's 3rd place finish.
CyclingQuotes' stage winner pick: Jens Keukeleire
Other winner candidates: Philippe Gilbert, John Degenkolb
Outsider: Matti Breschel, Andre Greipel, Elia Viviani, Giacomo Nizzolo
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