Mark Cavendish won the opening sprint battle and will wear the blue leader’s jersey in tomorrow’s second stage which should be another one for the sprinters. However, a tricky finale on the windy Palm Jumeirah will create some nervousness and it will come down to a fight for position than actual speed at the finish.

 

The course

The sprinters that lost out in the opening stage, will get an immediate chance to take revenge as the second day is another one for the fast men. Again most of the stage will be held in the city but will pass through its outskirts as it passes some of the major sports facilities, meaning that there are actually a few elevation gains in this stage. It will be very similar to the second stage of last year’s race and will have an identical, spectacular finish but this year a longer opening part will make increase the distance to 185km, something that had been requested by the riders.

 

Known as the Palm Stage, it will of course start at the Dubai International Marine Club and is divided into two parts: the first one outside the metropolis (and partly across the desert, too), and the second one in the heart of Dubai Marina, finishing in Palm Jumeirah. The first part is raced on wide (up to 6 lanes), well-surfaced boulevards. The route then takes a brief diversion through Silicon Oasis, with a close succession of large, wide roundabouts, and the first Intermediate Sprint at the 37.5km mark. The second Intermediate Sprint is located near the Camel Track, before reaching the Al-Qudra Cycletrack after 95.5km of racing

 

In the second part, the stage course enters the city centre near Dubai Motor City; several sectors are paved with stone slabs or setts, sometimes alternating between the two. Many turns, counter-turns and short bottlenecks lead all the way up to the spectacular Palm Jumeirah island, where the stage course then becomes mainly straight.

 

The stage course enters the final part of the “Palm” via an underwater tunnel. Many clearly marked rumble strips run across the carriageway along the descent and the climb. There is a U-turn 3,200 metres before the finish line. The final 3 kilometres are virtually straight (although on constantly slightly-bending road). Some roundabouts along the way. The home stretch is 800 m-long (still bending slightly), on 7 m-wide, asphalted roadway.

 

While the first stage had all the characteristics of a traditional sprint stage, this will be a much more nervous. First the riders will head into the desert where the potentially windy conditions could do some damage. Furthermore, the final kilometres are extremely exposed to the wind and last year it made for some extremely nervous racing, with the sprint trains fighting hard to get to the front before they hit the decisive tunnel in the finale.

 

Last year Giant-Shimano won the battle of the lead-out trains and delivered Marcel Kittel to the win, with the German holding off Peter Sagan and Taylor Phinney. As the German is absent from this year’s race, the door is open for Mark Cavendish make up for last year’s disappointing 30th place.

 

 

 

 

The weather

Many riders have travelled to Dubai to escape the European cold and they were not disappointed on the opening day which offered perfect conditions. Things won’t change for tomorrow’s stage which will be held under bright sunshine and with a maximum temperature of a very hot 29 degrees.

 

Today the wind didn’t really come into play but tomorrow things will be more dangerous. At the start, a moderate wind will be blowing from a southerly direction but as the day goes on, it will both pick up and change to a westerly direction. This means that there should be lots of crosswinds as the riders head out into the desert and there will even before a long dangerous cross-tailwind section just before they return to Dubai. As they get closer to the finish, it will become more of a headwind though. In the finale, there will be a cross-headwind as they head under the tunnel and onto the Jumeirah Palm and then the riders will turn into a direct crosswind for the final 6km of the stage.

 

The favourites

As we had already predicted in yesterday’s preview, the first stage turned into a battle between the Etixx-QuickStep and Sky trains who are clearly the strongest in this race. However, Andrea Guardini again proved that he has an excellent turn of speed at the end of a pretty easy, flat day and when he can start the sprint in a good position like he did today, he is very dangerous on a stage like today’s.

 

Today’s race was a very relaxed affair as the wind didn’t real come into play and the pace was pretty slow while the riders took the opportunity to catch up with each other after a long winter break. Tomorrow’s stage again has all the characteristics of a sprint stage as there are again virtually no elevation differences but with a stronger wind and a small trip into the desert, the riders may face a completely different stage.

 

We can again expect a pretty slow start to the stage as the riders will be well-protect while the leave the city of Dubai and like today the early break will probably be established after just a very short time of racing, with some of the continental and pro continental teams likely to be the main actors. Teams like Ag2r, Lampre-Merida, Katusha and Tinkoff-Saxo may also join the early action. Etixx-QuickStep will assume their responsibility by putting Carlos Verona on the front and they may allow the gap to become slightly bigger than today’s as the distance is quite a bit longer.

 

Today Giant-Alpecin contributed to the pace-setting but as their train and sprinter Luka Mezgec came up short in the finale, they are unlikely to be too active tomorrow. Instead, it may probably be left to Sky and maybe Astana to lend the Belgians a hand but in fact they may not need too much assistance. By the time, they get into the desert, the stronger wind should make for some very nervous racing and this will automatically prompt all the big teams to approach the front. This will make the race a lot harder and more stressful.

 

All teams want to be at the front at the key points but they will quickly realize whether the wind will be strong enough to actually create a selection. If not, they will relax a bit. It is hard to gauge if it will be enough to split the peloton but we may see teams like Sky, Etixx-QuickStep, Movistar and BMC try an attack in the crosswinds. That could cause some splits but with a headwind back towards the finish, there is a big chance that a largely intact peloton will approach the Jumeirah Palm. However, the fast pace will make it virtually impossible for the early break to stay away and a sprint finish is almost guaranteed.

 

Today the final intermediate sprint came into play, with Ben Swift showing his overall intentions as he picked up a few bonus seconds. Tomorrow the intermediate sprints come pretty far from the start and finish and the bonifications are very likely to be taken by the early escapees.

 

Today’s finale was very fast and nervous but it will be nothing in comparison to what will happen tomorrow. Last year all teams wanted to be in front by the time, the riders hit the tunnel to the Jumeirah Palm and that will again be the case tomorrow. We will see a huge battle as everybody wants to be first when they take the left-hand turn into the crosswind just after the tunnel with 6km to go. With a pretty strong crosswind, things could easily split up in the very finale and so team support and positioning will be more important than speed in this sprint. As gaps may occur, it will be very important for the GC contenders to be in a good position too and we could easily see some of the favourites lose a bit of time and a very small group of down to just 10 riders sprinting for the win.

 

Today Mark Cavendish won the stage by virtue of his strong team but he was not the fastest rider in the race. He proved to be quicker than Elia Viviani but there was no doubt that Andrea Guardini was faster than the Brit. Nonetheless, it is hard not to put Cavendish on the top of the list of favourites for tomorrow’s stage.

 

First of all, the stage will be longer and harder which doesn’t suit Guardini very well. The Italian is clearly best when the sprint comes at the end of a short, easy day and he will definitely be more fatigued at the end. Secondly, positioning will be crucial in this stage as it will cost very much energy to move up in the finale. As expected, Etixx-QuickStep and Sky have the best lead-out trains and Cavendish should be guaranteed to be in one of the best positions when they take the crucial turn. Etixx-QuickStep may lose the battle to Sky but today he proved that he is clearly faster than Viviani and he has the speed to pass the Italian if he has to start his sprint a little bit from behind.

 

Finally, the windier sprint should suit the aerodynamic and tactically astute Brit well. With Tony Martin, Fabio Sabatini and Mark Renshaw at his side in the finale, he will be the man to beat.

 

Today Sky proved that they probably had the strongest train as Bernhard Eisel won the battle with Fabio Sabatini for the top positions. However, Ben Swift and Elia Viviani made the wrong decision to latch onto the back of the Etixx train instead of following their teammates Eisel and Andrew Fenn. If they had done so, Viviani would have been able to start his sprint from the front which would have been a clear advantage in the tailwind.

 

The performance, however, should have provided the team with a lot of confidence and tomorrow there is a solid chance that they will again be able to put Viviani in the perfect position for the sprint. He may not be quite as fast as Cavendish but last year he beat him twice in the Tour of Turkey. In a stage where positioning is very important, Viviani and the Sky team will be the biggest rival for Cavendish.

 

Today Sky decided to support Elia Viviani while Ben Swift scored a few bonus seconds. With the Brit being their GC rider, however, they may switch the roles tomorrow. The harder stage should be more up Swift’s alley and he needs a few more bonus seconds if he wants to win the race overall. Usually, Swift is not fast enough to win this kind of bunch sprints but in a stage where it is more about positioning, he could rely on his strong team to take a victory and very important bonifications.

 

After his splendid performance in today’s stage, it is hard not to mention Andrea Guardini. As said, the longer and harder stage doesn’t suit him too well but as it is mainly flat, the terrain should not be a major obstacle. Instead, his main challenge will be to be well-positioned in the finale where his Astana team will have a hard time in the fight for position against Sky and Etixx.

 

However, Guardini can rely on an in-form Lars Boom who excels in these conditions and if he can keep up with the strong Dutchman, he may start his sprint from a good position. In that case, he has the speed to win. However, the fight for position may have left him too fatigued to reach his top speed and this will make it harder for him to win.

 

Today Giant-Alpecin decided to ride for Luka Mezgec but the Slovenian was never in the mix. As we predicted yesterday, the German team doesn’t have a lead-out train in Dubai which is able to challenge the stronger teams. That will make it very hard to win tomorrow’s stage in which positioning will be key.

 

Tomorrow the team is likely to give John Degenkolb his chance to shine and the German should really relish these tough, windy conditions that will make the race a lot harder. His team may not be strong enough to position him on the front but they should be able to get him into a reasonable spot. With a hard fight over the last few kilometres, Degenkolb will have an advantage and this will make him a candidate.

 

Yesterday we selected Alexander Porsev as a joker and he paid back our confidence by nearly making it into the top 3. There is no doubt that the Russian is one of the fastest in this race but he doesn’t have the strongest team at his side. On the other hand, Porsev is actually a pretty strong rider who knows how to handle windy conditions and this harder sprint may suit him well. If he can latch onto the wheel of one of the two major trains, he could win the stage.

 

Yesterday we had great confidence in Nicola Ruffoni but the Italian was never in the mix. Instead, it was his teammate Paolo Simion who finished in the top 10 but usually Ruffoni should be the protected sprinter. On paper, he has the speed to beat everyone in this field but he doesn’t have the strongest team to support him. In this stage, that is a big disadvantage but if he latches onto the back of one of the key trains, he is fast enough to win.

 

Finally, we will select a single joker. Juan Jose Lobato finished fifth in today’s stage which clearly underlined his weakness. Again he had to start his sprint from very far back and even though he proved to be very fast, it was too late to win the stage. On paper, tomorrow’s harder stage should suit him better but as position is the key to success, it will be a surprise if the Movistar rider uses his good form to take his second win.

 

Luka Mezgec also deserves a mention as he may the protected Giant-Alpecin sprinter. However, the Slovenian is probably not fast enough to beat the likes of Cavendish and Viviani. As Giant-Alpein are unlikely to win the battle for position, it will be hard for Mezgec to take his first win of the year.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Mark Cavendish

Other winner candidates: Elia Viviani, Ben Swift

Outsiders: Andrea Guardini, John Degenkolb, Alexander Porsev, Nicola Ruffoni

Jokers: Juan Jose Lobato, Luka Mezgec