Taylor Phinney (BMC) crushed the opposition to almost seal the overall win in the Dubai Tour on the opening day and now the focus will shift from the time trial specialists to the sprinters for the remainder of the race. The second stage has all the ingredients of a classic sprinter stage and should provide the first big battle between Mark Cavendish and Marcel Kittel  but the wind could potentially change the expected outcome. Starting at 10.45 CET, you can follow the stage on CyclingQuotes.com/live.

The course

The second stage will again be held in the city but will pass through its outskirts as it passes some of the major sports facilities, including the Hippodrome, the Olympic pool, the Al Qudra cycling tack, the Autodrome, and the amazing Golf Club. As a consequence, it will be known as the Sport Stage and will be a rather short affair at just 122km.

From the start in the centre of the city, the riders will head along mostly flat roads to the outskirts where they will make a number of changes in direction and take a couple of U-turns to visit all the big sports facilities in the city. Intermediate sprints will take place at the Hamdan Sport Complex and the Al Qudra Cycling Track at the 42km and 58.5km marks respectively. The roads will be slightly ascending as they reach the highest point after 62.6km of racing but at 60m above altitude the elevation differences will make no difference.

Having made the final U-turn at that point, the riders head back down towards the city. Having reached the seafront, they turn left and will do a small circuit in the city centre before heading out into the sea for a spectacular finish on the Palm Island Atlantis. On the island, they will do a U-turn which is located 3.2km from the finish and from there they will follow a flat, slightly bending road all the way to the finish.

Being entirely flat, a bunch sprint is the likely conclusion to a stage whose only impact on GC will come courtesy of the bonus seconds. The first big sprint battle of the season between Marcel Kittel and Mark Cavendish is in store!

The weather

The only thing that could potentially prevent a bunch sprint finish to the stage is the wind and the managers will have carefully studied the weather forecast.  The riders face a sunny day, with more clouds making their appearance towards the end of the day. The temperature will reach its maximum at around 19 degrees at the midpoint of the stage.

The last few days in Dubai have been rather windy and that will again be the case tomorrow. A strong wind will be blowing from a western direction, meaning that there will be lots of crosswinds sections. While the early part of the stage will take place in the city centre, the roads shouldn't be too exposed but towards the end, the riders will reach the coast. With the wind coming from the sea, there will be a cross-headwind on the coastal road and this could potentially pose a threat near the end of the stage.

The real drama could come in the final few kilometres when the riders head onto the Palm Island Atlantis. At first they will have a cross-headwind but during their small loop at the end, the will have a direct crosswind. At such a late point, time gaps will be minimal but it could make for a very difficult sprint with more time differences than in a usual sprint stage.

The favourites

With the wind being rather strong, the riders will definitely be very nervous and it will be a big battle to stay near the front. As the riders will be well-protected by the many buildings in the first part of the stage, we doubt that we will see any echelons but the nervousness will make sure that it will be a rather fast stage. This will also spoil the day for the early breakaway and Giant-Shimano and Omega Pharma-Quick Step will do the needed chase work to bring back the early escapees.

As we only expect the wind to come into play at the very end of the stage on a very short section of coastal road, we are unlikely to see any major splits on the stage. In any case, the major teams BMC (with race leader Taylor Phinney), Omega Pharma-Quick Step (with Mark Cavendish) and Giant-Shimano (with Marcel Kittel) will be strong enough to stay out of trouble and won't be the ones to be caught out if a split occurs. The main danger will be the crashes that will be an almost unavoidable consequence of the many tricky corners and the great nervousness.

If the crashes don't take out either Kittel or Cavendish, we can't honestly imagine another outcome than a sprint finish with those two stars being the major favourites. With the sprint taking place after a very difficult final section on the Palm Island Atlantis, however, it will be an unusual sprint and the peloton is likely to be completely strung out in the final few kilometres when the race hits its crosswind section. It will be very important to be placed right at the front when the riders get onto the island as it will be very difficult to move up afterwards.

The stage is set to provide the first big showdown between Kittel and Cavendish. What adds extra intrigue to the drama is the fact that both have most of their lead-out trains at their disposal. It will be Cavendish' first chance to ride with both Alessandro Petacchi and Mark Renshaw and he will have the added firepower of Tony Martin and Nikolas Maes in the finale. Kittel will be supported by his usual two lead-out men Koen De Kort and Tom Veelers and will also have fast finishers Bert De Backer, Reinhardt Janse Van Rensburg and Ramon Sinkeldam at his disposal.

With the firepower of Martin, Omega Pharma-Quick Step are likely to take control in the final kilometres but Giant-Shimano should be strong enough to stay right up there. With the peloton being likely to be very strung out, there is less risk that Kittel will be boxed in and his team should be strong enough to let him start his sprint very close to Cavendish. The Manxman may be the one to open the sprint but he cannot expect to get rid of Kittel in the run-in.

Kittel showed some solid form in Australia and he confirmed that he is riding really well when he almost finished in the top 10 in today's time trial. We have little doubt that the German is currently the fastest rider in the peloton and it was simply impressive to see how he closed a massive gap to André Greipel in the final few hundred metres of the People's Choice Classic. Furthermore, tomorrow's finishing straight is a long one which should suit a power sprinter like Kittel perfectly. The sprint should be a close one but with a perfect train at his disposal and little risk of getting boxed in, our money is on Kittel to take the win.

However, Cavendish is certainly no bad sprinter and he will be very eager to get his first win of the season and get his new lead-out train off to a good start. His major advantage is his new train that we expect to deliver him on the front. With the sprint expected to be a windy one, he may benefit from his more aerodynamic sprinting style and he has showed some good condition in both San Luis and today's time trial. We may expect Kittel to win the stage but Cavendish won't be far off the mark.

It's hard to imagine that neither Kittel nor Cavendish will win the stage but it would be a good idea to look out for Giacomo Nizzolo. The Italian is improving greatly as a sprinter as he proved when he won the third stage of the Tour de San Luis. Last year the Eneco Tour offered three bunch sprints and on each occasion the main group was led across the line by the duo of Greipel and Nizzolo, with Nizzolo beating the German once (two of the stages were won by surprise breakaways). To go up against Greipel in a sprint that is loaded with sprint stars is no mean feat and proves that he has come a long way both when it comes to sprinting and positioning.

Nizzolo will benefit from a very strong lead-out train that includes new signing Eugenio Alafaci and veteran Danilo Hondo. Fabian Cancellara will be on hand to move them up in the windy finale and Nizzolo is likely to be well-placed for the sprint. He is not fast enough to come around Kittel and Cavendish but the podium is certainly within reach.

No one can ever rule out Peter Sagan who will be eager to continue building on his victory tally. The Slovakian is not yet in his best condition but today's 6th place in the time trial proves that he has improved a lot since San Luis where he only did one sprint. On that occasion he was clearly beaten by Sacha Modolo and we doubt that his sprinting is at its best level yet. He has never been fast enough to beat Kittel and Cavendish in this kind of sprint but he could very well end on the podium. No one handles the positioning better than Sagan and he will never be caught out in the crosswinds. With Daniele Ratto, Marco Marcato and Fabio Sabatini to support him, he should be near the front.

Andrea Guardini is one of the fastest sprinters in the world but he rarely gets the chance to show his speed as he is usually boxed in near the end. This short, completely flat stage suits him perfectly and he has said that he hopes to come out with all guns blazing. With Valentin Iglinskiy, Alexey Lutsenko and Jacopo Guarnieri at his side, he has a solid support crew that should help position him near the front. He has beaten Cavendish in a direct battle in the past and he has the speed to do so again. He is likely to be caught out again and could very well finish outside the top 10 but he is one of the few riders who has the speed to actually win the stage.

Tyler Farrar has been reported as producing some impressive numbers in training and he will be eager to put a few disappointing seasons behind him with a good start. He failed to position himself well in the San Luis sprints but should benefit from the presence of Raymond Kreder and Ramunas Navardauskas in Dubai. The days when he can realistically hope to beat the top sprinters are gone but it would be a solid confidence boost if he can finish on the podium.

Finally, we will select our joker. Alexander Porsev didn't show good condition in the Tour Down Under but that may not have been the truth. Today he surprised massively when he finished in the top 10 in the time trial despite never having performed well in the discipline in the past. This proves that he is up for the challenge and he is Katusha's only sprinter in this race. He is not too good at positioning himself for the sprints and this will again be a disadvantage as he does not have the strongest team at his disposal. If he manages to get onto the right wheel in the finale, however, a top result could in store.

CyclingQuotes' stage winner pick: Marcel Kittel

Other winner candidates: Mark Cavendish, Giacomo Nizzolo

Outsiders: Peter Sagan, Andrea Guardini, Tyler Farrar

Joker: Alexander Porsev