The first two stages of the Criterium du Dauphiné have been the domain of the GC riders but over the next four days, they will probably take a back seat while the sprinters, puncheurs and attackers come to the fore. First up is a very lumpy third stage that will be hard to control and can both be decided in a sprint finish or by a strong breakaway.

The course

After two stages that have opened up the first time gaps in the overall standings, the GC riders will get the chance to take a short breather in what should be one of the easiest stages of the race. The third stage brings the riders over 194km from Ambert to Le Teil and like the previous day it takes place on the hilly western outskirts of the Alps. Unlike stage 2, however, the third leg doesn't feature any major climbs and has a flat finish, meaning that it could be one of the biggest opportunities for the few sprinters in the race.

It will be dangerous to underestimate the terrain though. After a flat start, the riders go up the category 2 Cote de Lavet (8.7km, 4.4%), and from there it is undulating from most of the day. The route is always up and down and clearly favours attackers over a chasing peloton. The difficult part ends with the category 2 Cote de la Mure (3.8km, 6.3%) whose top comes with 46km to go.

From there, it is a steep, not too technical descent down to the intermediate sprint in the valley and then it is a long, straight, flat road along the Rhone river all the way to the finish in Le Teil. Things only get a bit more complicated in the finale when a left-hand turn and a roundabout lead to the final right-hand turn that leads onto the flat 450m finishing straight.

The weather

Until now, the riders have had summerlike condition for the Criterium du Dauphiné and things won’t change for tomorrow’s third stage. It will be another very hot day in Southern France and again the heat could become a factor in determining the outcome of the race.

It will be beautiful sunshine all day and the temperature at the finish will reach a maximum of 31 degrees. Like today, there will be a moderate wind from a southerly direction which means that the riders will have a cross-headwind before turning into a direct headwind for the final flat kilometres in the valley. That will be the conditions all the way to the line and it will be a headwind sprint on the 450m finishing straight.

The favourites

After two hard days, the GC riders will be happy to take a back seat for a few days and allow other riders to come to the fore. For them, the third stage is one of recovery and they hope to pass it as easily as possible. For the attackers and sprinters, however, it is one of their best chances of the entire race.

Pretty big time gaps have now opened up and this means that the GC teams can take it a bit easier and allow a break to stay away to the finish if it doesn’t contain any dangerous riders. This means that it will be left to the sprint teams to bring it back together for a sprint finish and the fast finishers will be do their utmost not to miss out on this opportunity.

Stages 4 and 5 are likely to be too hard for the sprinters, meaning that the third and sixth stages are the only real opportunities for a bunch sprint. Several teams have some pretty strong sprinters in their line-ups and for many of them the sprints are their main target. This means that they can’t allow themselves to let this opportunity slip away and as a lot of sprinters fancy their chances on what seems to be a fairly level playing field, several teams should contribute to the pace-setting.

However, they need a lot of firepower as the terrain is very hard to control and they cannot allow themselves to go too fast up the climbs. On the other hand, most of the sprinters in this race are pretty decent climbers and this increases the likelihood of a bunch sprint finish.

Many riders know that the terrain is difficult to control and even though some may save their energy for stages 4 and 5, we can expect a hard start to the stage. This means that the break is unlikely to have gone clear before they hit the first climb which makes it more likely that the group will be pretty strong. From there, it should be a pretty hard pursuit and we don’t expect the break to be given too much leeway.

With Trek, FDJ, Omega Pharma-Quick Step and maybe Giant-Shimano all keen to work for a sprint finish and a headwind in the valley, however, the odds are on the sprinters to get their chance to shine. We would expect this to come down to  a bunch sprint and in that case, it could be a pretty close battle between Arnaud Demare and Giacomo Nizzolo.

We put our money on Demare to win the stage though. The Frenchman has been sprinting really well over the last few weeks and was pretty dominant in both the Four Days of Dunkirk and Tour de Picardie. He may not have been up against the fastest sprinters in those races but his sprint wins were mostly taken by very big margins. Earlier this year he has proved how fast he is by winning the final stage of the Tour of Qatar and taken a couple of second places against some really fast riders and on paper he should be the fastest rider in this race.

At the same time, he is supported by the strongest lead-out train, with Yoann Offredo, William Bonnet and Mickael Delage forming a tested formation. In the headwind sprint, timing will be very important but in the past they have proven that they know how to deliver the sprinter. Demare is a solid climber as well and with a headwind, he has a decent chance of making it over the Col de la Mure. It all adds up and makes Demare the favourite to win the stage.

His biggest rival should be Giacomo Nizzolo who comes out of the Giro in great condition. The Italian was so agonizingly close to a stage win in the grand tour but had to settle for second no less than four times. By finishing runner-up in the final stage, he proved that he is not fatigued yet and last year Elia Viviani proved how much a sprinter can benefit from the Giro in the Dauphiné.

Nizzolo doesn’t have his lead-out train at his disposal but he is excellent at positioning himself and in this headwind sprint, it may not be too important as it is easier to come from behind. He is a solid climber and should have a great chance of making it over the Col de la Mure. He was pretty equal with Nacer Bouhanni in the Giro and Demare and Bouhanni should also be pretty equally matched. Nizzolo definitely has the speed to take the victory that eluded him in the Giro.

Gianni Meersman was in great condition at Paris-Nice but broke several ribs in a crash and after his recovery he has been working in a domestique role. In this race, he should get a chance to sprint for himself and he really excels in this kind of hilly races that ends with a sprint from a reduced peloton. Last year won the points jersey in this race and was close to a win on a number of occasions, proving that he is tailor-made for this race.

He is clearly not yet at his best condition but on paper he should be a better climber than Demare and Nizzolo. His team could try to make things hard on the Col de la Mure to tire out his rivals and this will give him a chance in the finish. He is not as fast as Nizzolo and Demare but has a very strong team and if he arrives fresher at the finish, he could take his first 2014 victory in tomorrow’s stage.

Orica-GreenEDGE are mostly here to prepare for the Tour de France but they will welcome any kind of success along the way. They have a number of riders that are perfectly suited to this kind of hard race and in a sprint finish, Simon Gerrans, Daryl Impey, Leigh Howard and Jens Keukeleire would all have a chance. In a pure sprint, Howard is the fastest of the quartet and he will be the most likely captain in case of bunch kick. In the Tour of Oman, he proved that he has the speed to be up there with the best and he is actually also a pretty decent climber. With three fast riders to support him, the team support could elevate him to the top step of the podium.

Thor Hushovd finds himself under a lot of pressure after he has been told that his contract won’t get renewed and he will eager to prove his managers wrong. He may not have had a great spring season but he actually climbed really well in the Tour of California as soon as he was used to the heat. If he can cope with the hot weather in France, he should have a decent chance in tomorrow’s stage.

Hushovd is no longer the sprinter he once was but in last year’s Tour de Pologne and Tour of Beijing he proved that he still has the speed to win WorldTour races when the best sprinters are not there. If he makes it over the climbs fresher than his rivals, no one can rule out a win for the Norwegian champion.

Giant-Shimano always have a sprinter in their line-up and in this race they put their money on Nikias Arndt and Reinardt Van Rensburg for the sprint finishes. On the hard days, Van Rensburg will be the captain but tomorrow should be a day for Arndt. The German showed some great sprinting in the Four Days of Dunkirk and even though he didn’t excel in the Bayern Rundfahrt, he definitely has the speed to be up there. There are faster riders than him in this race but in a headwind sprint it is more about timing than speed and this could open the door for Arndt.

Finally, we will select our jokers. Lotto Belisol have several fast finishers and Tony Gallopin, Jurgen Roelandts and Kris Boeckmans could all be given their chance to sprint. The stage is probably not hard enough for Gallopin and may a bit too hard for Boeckmans. This could open the door for Roelandts who could get a rare chance to chase some personal success in the sprinters. In his first years as a professional, he actually won a decent number of bunch sprints and even though he is no longer as fast as he was back then, he will have a chance in this kind of race.

Yannick Martinez had a great 2013 season and was offered a contract with Europcar for this season. He has had a quiet start to his WorldTour career but has shown glimpses of his best form. This kind of hard race is where he really excels and he showed some great condition in the recent Boucles de l’Aulne. To win the race, things will have to go his way but in the past he has shown that he has the kind of innovative skills in the finales that can deny the faster finishers.

Alexey Tsatevich is no pure sprinter but at the end of a hard race, he has a decent sprint. Hence, it was no surprise to see him do well in the Tour de Romandie and this is another event that suits him well. Like Martinez he is not fast enough to beat the likes of Demare and Nizzolo but in a headwind sprint, a lot is possible. A podium spot is certainly within the reach of the versatile Russian.

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Arnaud Demare

Other winner candidates: Giacomo Nizzolo, Gianni Meersman

Outsiders: Leigh Howard, Thor Hushovd, Nikias Arndt

Joker: Jurgen Roelandts, Yannick Martinez, Alexey Tsatevich