Sergio Henao, Alberto Contador and Nairo Quintana failed to cooperate and so the Alto de Aia failed to do any real damage in the battle for the overall win. Apart from Mikel Landa who was always destined to lose time at some point, all the favourites reached the finish in Orio together and so there’s only one opportunity left for the climbers to make a difference: the traditional queen stage to Arrate which is harder than ever before.

 

The course

The fifth day is the day of the race's traditional queen stage. For many years, the finish with the Alto de Arrate and the short downhill run to the line featured in the queen stage of the Euskal Bizikleta but when that race disappeared, the organizers agreed with the Vuelta al Pais Vasco organizers to incorporate that stage into the biggest Basque race. Since then it has always featured as the end of the race's queen stage and in 2016 it will be no different. The stage has mostly come on the fourth day but for the first time it will be the final road stage of the race.

 

While the finale is unchanged from year to year, the early part of the stage varies a bit. This year the stage is harder than ever, has a length of just 159km and starts in Orio. The first part of the stage consist of a flat run along the coast until the riders turn inland to go up the gradual rise to the top of the category 2 Alto de Itziar (6.4km, 2.97%). Then the riders will tackle the category 3 Alto de Calvario (2.4km, 7.63%) before they will reach Eibar for the first time after 58.5km of racing.

 

The next part of the stage consists of a big circuit that includes many of the climbs that have usually featured in this stage. First it’s the category 2 Alto de Karabieta (6.3km, 7.22%) which is a very regular ascent and whose descent leads straight to the first intermediate sprint and the bottom of the category 2 Alto de Kanpazar (3.4km, 5.50%). Then there’s a very short flat section before the riders got up the category 2 Alto de Asentzio (3.4km, 7.35%), another very regular climb. After the descent, flat roads lead past the second intermediate sprint and back to Eibar.

 

Here they will start another loop around the city. It kicks off with the hardest climb of the day, the category 2 Alto de Ixua (3.7km, 10.95%) which always plays an important role in this stage. It's a very tough one and this year they will climb it from a new side where the second kilometre averages an impressive 19.8%. This time it even comes pretty close to the finish as there are only 35.3km to go. The final intermediate sprint is located with 27km to go. The next challenge is the category 2 Alto de San Miguel (5.1km, 5.53%) which is a rather easy climb until it gets slightly steeper near the top where it averages 8.36% for a kilometre.

 

From the top 19.9km remain and they are the same as last year. They start with a fast descent that leads to a short stretch of gradually ascending valley roads that lead back to Eibar. Now it is time to head up the famous category 1 Alto de Arrate (7.3km, 6.71%) which is located on the northern outskirts of the city. It's a very regular affair as the first 6km have a gradient of 7.5% but then the road flattens out with a gradient of just around 3% for the final 1.3km.

 

The KOM sprint comes with 2.2km to go but the road will be ascending until the riders reach the flamme rouge. The riders will all know the final section well as it features at the race every year. The finale is a fast technical downhill where there is no time for regrouping and the time differences are usually maintained all the way to the finish. It's a technical affair that has several turns inside the final kilometre. The final right-hand one comes just 100m from the line and history proves that the winner is the one who enters it in first position.

 

The stage debuted in the race in 2009 when Alberto Contador rode to a solo win 8 seconds ahead of Cadel Evans and Samuel Sanchez but since then it has been Sanchez' domain. The local hero won it thrice in a row from 2010 to 2012, arriving at the finish as part of a trio twice and with an 11-rider group once. The technical descent has suited him perfectly and he has always known how to time his sprint ahead of the final corner to come away with the win. In 2013 he was finally beaten when he failed to make it into the 7-rider lead group and this time it was Nairo Quintana who excelled on the descent to win ahead of Sergio Henao and Alberto Contador. In 2014 Wout Poels made a late move on the climb and he arrived at the finish a few seconds ahead of a 13-rider group that was led home by Alejandro Valverde and Sanchez. Last year Joaquim Rodriguez took his second win in a row by winning a sprint from a 12-rider group.

 

The finish also featured in the 2012 Vuelta when Valverde, Joaquim Rodriguez, Alberto Contador and Chris Froome arrived at the finish, with Rodriguez doubtlessly regretting that he didn't sprint all the way to the line as he was passed by Valverde just before the finish.

 

 

The weather

There was not much luck for the riders in today’s stage and it won’t be any better on Fruday. Throughout the entire stage there is 60-70% chance of rain and the maximum temperature will only be 11 degrees. It will be slightly less windy, with a moderate wind blowing from a northwesterly direction. This means that it will be a cross-headwind in the first part and then mainly a crosswind on the final circuits. On the final climb, it will be a headwind on the lower slopes and then a cross-tailwind in the final part.

 

The favourites

Alto de Aia never disappoints. As it has been the case every year, the best riders are able to make a difference on the brutal wall and this year Sergio Henao underlined that he is currently the strongest rider in the race – at least on the short, very steep climbs. However, unlike in 2008 and 2010 when the best riders managed to work together to put time into their rivals, Henao, Alberto Contador and Nairo Quintana looked at each other and this cost them the opportunity to gain important time on some of the key rivals. In the end, it was a very big group that arrived at the finish and apart from Mikel Landa who was never a real GC threat, the best riders all finished together.

 

Henao, Contador and Quintana may have to regret the missed opportunity later in the race. Wilco Kelderman is an excellent time triallist and the Dutchman now seems to be a serious contender for the overall win. He had no pre-race expectations and actually didn’t plan to go for GC as he fell ill in Catalonia but he has surprised both himself and his team. Of course he has now changed his mind and even though it’s a very special time trial which doesn’t necessarily suit the best time triallists, Kelderman should be able to do really well on the final stage.

 

At the same time, Samuel Sanchez is suddenly back to his best after a very disappointing 2015 season. He has always been very strong in hilly technical time trials and has won the Basque time trial in the past. In February, he did a very good TT in Andalusia at a time when he was far from his best form so he is now a very dangerous contender. The same goes for Rui Costa who is no real TT specialist but has done some excellent time trials on hilly courses in Switzerland. The Portuguese is riding better than he has done for a long time, defending himself on steep climbs that normally don’t suit him. In general, the race is definitely not the Contador-Quintana showdown that many expected.

 

Quintana and Contador have one more chance to gain time before we get to the time trial. Tomorrow is the day of the traditional queen stage to Arrate and it will be the scene of a big battle between the best climbers. However, the stage will hold no surprises as it a well-known finish and history shows that the final climb is not hard enough to gain massive amounts of time. Very often a small group has arrived together at the finish and only Alberto Contador has managed to ride to a solo win here when the stage debuted in 2009 (Poels took a solo win in 2014 but that was a result of a tactical race and not of the Dutchman being the strongest).

 

However, this year the stage is a lot harder. It’s an exciting idea to have the riders go up the Alto de Ixua from its steepest side and again have that climb much closer to the finish. Of course it’s too early for the GC riders to make a difference but it is a perfect place to make the race hard. We will probably see a rather big selection here, with only the best riders making it to the top together. A regrouping will take place after the climb but we can expect a much smaller field at the bottom of the final climb than we have usually had. At the same time, the bad weather will only make the race tougher and today’s very fast stage will be heavily felt by the riders.

 

On the other hand, there will be a headwind in the hardest part of the climb and this means that it will again be very hard to make a difference here. The final part of the climb is pretty easy and so it requires a very strong rider to take a solo win here.

 

The stage is a very prestigious one as everybody wants to win in Arrate and so it is unlikely that a break will make it. Still it’s a very hard stage with lots of rain and it won’t be easy to control things. There is a chance that a break can go all the way but the most likely outcome is that the favourites will decide the stage.

 

As it is the final opportunity for many teams to win a stage, we can expect another very fast start and like today, it will probably be take ages for the break to go clear. The first part of the stage is not very hard but if we get to the bottom of the third climb without any break, a very strong group will get away. If that’s the case, there is a bigger chance that the break will make it.

 

Sky, Movistar, Tinkoff and maybe even BMC all want to win this stage and the former three teams also want the race to be as hard as possible. We expect them to take control. Until now, Movistar have been riding very conservatively but as this is the final road stage, there is no longer any reason to hold anything back. The same goes for the very strong Sky team. Tinkoff don’t have the best team here so they may have to follow wheels but there should be enough firepower to make sure that the stage becomes hard and that the favourites will decide the stage.

 

There are no doubts that Nairo Quintana, Alberto Contador and Sergio Henao will try to attack relentlessly but they probably need a harder climb and a steeper final part to make a difference. Henao may be strong enough to open an advantage but he is likely to suffer when he has to keep it in the easier part near the top. Today the trio failed to cooperate and we doubt that it will be any different tomorrow. There is a big chance that we will again have a relatively big group of favourites near the top.

 

This opens the door for two possible scenarios. One of the outsiders has a chance to make a late attack like Poels did in 2014 and like Ilnur Zakarin and Simon Spilak have both tried to do in the past. If the favourites watch each other closely, such a move may pay off. Otherwise, we will probably have the usual downhill sprint where it is all about positioning and technical skills to get through that final turn in first position. If the roads are wet, it will be very dangerous.

 

This makes it a perfect scenario for Samuel Sanchez. The Spaniard has dominated this stage in the past, winning it thrice in a row from 2010 to 2012, but honestly we doubted that he would ever get the chance to take a fourth win. However, the Spaniard has suddenly returned to form and there is no doubt that he is one of the five best climbers in this race. Unless Henao, Contador and Quintana can make a difference in the end, he will definitely be with the best on the top and nobody knows how to handle that finale like him. He is the best descender of the GC riders, he knows the finale down to the ground, he will benefit from wet roads and he is fast in a sprint. He won today’s stage but this is the one he would really love to win. If he’s there at the top, we doubt that anyone will be able to beat him.

 

Last year Joaquim Rodriguez won this stage and he was also close to victory here in the 2012 Vuelta where he won definitely have won if he had just kept sprinting all the way to the line. Like Sanchez, the veteran knows the finale really well and even though he is clearly not at his best yet, he has a chance to win this stage. As the best riders are unlikely to make a difference, there is a big chance that he will be with the best near the top. He is a good descender and has a fast sprint. His main disadvantage is that he is currently not as strong as Sanchez and so he may be a bit too far back at the top to have time to move back to the front for the sprint.

 

We doubt that this climb is hard enough for Nairo Quintana and Alberto Contador even though it is longer than the previous climbs. In fact, we can only imagine one rider taking a solo win here: Sergio Henao. The Colombian has proved that he is the strongest rider here but he will be less comfortable on a longer, less steep climb. Still he may be able to ride away from everybody. Even if he has Contador and/or Quintana for company, he should be the best in this finish as he is faster than both.

 

Rui Costa is another rider that is suited to this kind of finale. As said, he is riding better than he has ever done in this race, doing really well on very steep climbs that don’t suit him. Tomorrow’s gradients suit him a lot better and he should be even more competitive. The finale is very good for him as he is a good descender and pretty fast but we doubt that he will be strong enough to beat Sanchez in this kind of finale. His best chance is to launch a surprise attack which he can definitely do. The Portuguese is a master in picking the right moment.

 

As said, there is a solid chance that some of the outsiders can benefit from the tactical battle to ride away. One of these riders is Simon Spilak. The Slovenian has tried to do in this stage in the past and he is always aggressive. He is not at his best level yet but isn’t far off the mark. This climb suits him much better and he always excels in bad weather. It won’t be easy to get him back in the finale.

 

Warren Barguil is already back in good form after his training crash and he was close to the win today. He is no threat in the time trial so he won’t be too heavily marked. He is always aggressive and searching for opportunities and the downhill run to the line suits him really well.

 

Bauke Mollema was ill before the race and is not in his best form. However, he is not far behind the best and as he has lost a bit of time, he will be given some freedom if he attacks. Furthermore, he will be there if a big group arrives at the top and he is relatively fast in a sprint. Unfortunately, the finale may be a bit too technical for him.

 

This season has been a bit of a revival for Arnold Jeannesson who has clearly benefited from the decision to move to Cofidis. He has been riding very strongly all year, most recently in Criterium International. At the same time, he has become a lot more aggressive than usual and he has already been on the attack in this race. He could be the rider to take off in the finale.

 

The same goes for Louis Vervaeke. After so much bad luck with crashes and illness, he is finally able to show his full potential. He attacked relentlessly in Catalonia where he was already very good. He is even stronger here and would have loved to attack in today’s stage if Wellens was not up the road. If there is just the slightest hesitation he will take his opportunity.

 

Daniel Navarro has been very aggressive in this race and we have no doubt that he will try to attack in tomorrow’s stage again. The explosive finishes haven’t really suited him and he should be a lot more comfortable tomorrow. He has lost a bit of time on GC and won’t be too heavily marked.

 

As said, a breakaway will have a small chance. If a group makes it, we will point to Dario Cataldo, Gianluca Brambilla and Pierre Rolland who have all shown decent form, lost a bit of time and shown the right aggressiveness to try to attack from afar.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Samuel Sanchez

Other winner candidates: Joaquim Rodriguez, Sergio Henao

Outsiders: Rui Costa, Simon Spilak, Warren Barguil, Bauke Mollema

Jokers: Arnold Jeannesson, Louis Vervaeke, Daniel Navarro

Breakaway jokers: Dario Cataldo, Gianluca Brambilla, Pierre Rolland