Mikel Landa proved that he is on track for another great Giro d’Italia by bravely anticipating the favourites and riding himself into the race lead and he should be able to enjoy at least one day in yellow before the GC battle heats up again. Stage 3 offers the final chance for the sprinters to go for a stage win but three tough climbs in the finale mean that it will be very difficult to get things together for a reduced bunch sprint on a day that could be harder than most expect.

 

The course

This year’s very hard course doesn’t leave much room for the sprinters and after missing out in the first stage, there’s just one opportunity left. The third stage may not have an uphill finish but with three very steep climbs in the finale, it is a very typical Pais Vasco stage that could very well be too hard for the fast riders. At the same time, the GC riders may test each other. With a flat run to the finish, it is not a stage where the race can be won but it can definitely be lost here.

 

At 193.5km, it is the longest stage of the race and it will take off from Vitoria-Gasteiz which usually hosts a sprint stage but has been relegated to a role of being a starting city in 2016m and will end in Lesaka. The city is located on a well-known flat plateau and so the first start of the stage is a completely flat easterly run. In Irurtzun, the riders will turn to the north to approach the coast and this signals a change in the terrain. Having contested, the first intermediate sprint at the 87km mark, the riders will tackle the category 3 Alto de Uitzi (2km, 7.6%) and the category 2 alto De Usategieta (4km, 5.75%)in quick succession, with the latter summiting after 104.7km mainly flat racing.

 

After the climb, the riders will descend from the plateau to hit another flat part of the Basque Country which brings them to the city of Oiartzun where the second intermediate sprint comes with 34.5km to go. From here hell will break loose. Instead of going straight to the finish in Lesaka, the riders will head into the hilly terrain south of the finishing city where they will tackle three climb in quick succession.

 

First up is the category 2 Alto de Aritxulegi (4.4km, 7.48%) which is a relatively regular climb with a gradient of around 7% for most of the time. It leads almost straight onto the lower slopes of the category 2 Alto de Agina (4.3km, 7.21%) which is another pretty regular climb. The top comes with 20.2km to go and from there the riders will descend to Lesaka where they will contest the final intermediate sprint 12.5km from the finish. From here, they take on a circuit that includes the category 2 Alto de la Piedad (2.1km, 8.81%) which is a very regular climb with a gradient just below the 9% mark for most of the time. The top comes with 9.1km to go and after a short descent, it is a flat run to the finish. The final turn comes with 600m to go and the final kilometre is completely flat.

 

 Lesaka hasn’t hosted a stage finish for more than a decade.

 

 

The weather

Today was a typical Basque day with a mix of rain and sunshine. Tomorrow there is a better chance that the rain jackets can be left at home as there’s only a 20% chance of rain in the first part of the stage while it should be dry in the end. It will be a cloudy day with a maximum temperature of 14 degrees.

 

There will be a moderate wind from a northerly direction which means that it will be a crosswind on the plateau and a headwind as they head towards the coast. It will be crosswind in the final part until the peloton takes on the final small loop. It will be a headwind on the final climb and descent and then the riders will turn into a crosswind for the finale.

 

The favourites

No one had any big expectations for Mikel Landa at this race, not even the Basque himself. He has just returned from illness and even though he was better than expected at Coppi e Bartali, he was still unable to follow the best there. He didn’t show great form in GP Miguel Indurain and this weekend he said that he would not be an overall contender in this race.

 

He is still a very unlikely winner of the race but he showed panache and better form than expected by anticipating the favourites. As Tinkoff and Movistar delivered surprisingly poor performances, Contador and Quintana had no teammates to up the pace. Hence, Kelderman and Landa could stay away without being the strongest riders in the race. At the same time, the slow pace meant that it became a really explosive effort and this suited Sergio Henao down to the ground. The Colombian was always going to be the biggest rival for the two pre-race favourites in a race that suits him down to the ground and with today’s performance, he has firmly established himself as a very likely winner of the race.

 

However, Contador is still in pole position. The queen stage is less explosive and it will be difficult for Henao to gain more time before we get to the time trial where Contador will have the upper hand. He put important time into Simon Spilak in today’s stage and also gained a few second on Thibaut Pinot who is another excellent time triallist. At the same time, Nairo Quintana lost some unexpected ground but it just goes a long way in proving that this race has never suited him.

 

The GC battle with most likely be put on hold for a single day but it is very dangerous to underestimate tomorrow’s stage. The final three climbs are actually all very hard with gradients of more than 7% and as the final two climbs come in very quick succession, it is almost like a 10km climb with a gradient of 7-7.5%. That’s like a real mountain and if we can believe the roadbook – which is always difficult in Spanish races – this stage could be much harder than expected.

 

It will be interesting to see how the teams will approach the stage. It’s the final chance for the sprinters so Orica-GreenEDGE and Trek may be keen on bringing things back together for a sprint. However, there is definitely no guarantee that Simon Gerrans and Fabio Felline will survive this tough finale and so they may be unwilling to do the chase work. At the same time, bigger time gaps have now been created so the GC teams have less of an incentive to chase, especially as Movistar and Tinkoff have all lost riders. This means that it could very well be a day for a breakaway.

 

Orica-GreenEDGE probably have the key to the stage. Gerrans was close to the win in the opening stage and this is his final real chance to get a win.  After today’s failure of the Yates brothers, their GC campaign is over so they simply have to give it a try. This race has always been very important to them which has been evident by the way they have been riding in the first few stages. As the  part of the stage is easy, it should be possible for them to make sure that the early break is not too strong and we expect them to control things. However, it can definitely not be ruled out that this stage will be won by a breakaway.

 

As everybody knows this, it will be a fast start until the break gets clear. While Orica-GreenEDGE will consider their options in the first part of the stage, the rest of the peloton has to be very attentive in the first part. It will be a crosswind on the plateau in the beginning and this has split the field in the last. However, as it comes very early in the stage, we doubt that it will have any impact on the race.

 

If Orica-GreenEDGE or Trek start to chase, it will come down to the final three climbs where the attacks will be flying. As it was the case in stage 1, it will be very difficult to control things. At the same time, we will be surprised if Alberto Contador doesn’t test his legs in the finale and this will only make things even more selective. The sprint teams both need their sprinters to have very good legs to survive and they need some very strong teams to control things. Hence, this stage is very open and it can be won both from an early break, from a sprint or from a late attack.

 

Even though we think that Orica-GreenEDGE will control things, we have doubts about Simon Gerrans’  ability to survive this finale. Furthermore, it will be very hard to control the final few kilometres where the attacks will be flying so we think that a late attack will pay off as it did in the opening stage. The final climb is a perfect ramp and it won’t be easy to organize things.

 

That makes it a good stage for Tony Gallopin. The Frenchman is not here to ride for GC as he has all his eyes on the Ardennes. He showed solid form yesterday but took it easy in today’s stage. This means that he has now lost a bit of time and he will be ready to chase a stage win in the final part of the race.

 

Gallopin is constantly getting stronger and this kind of finale suits him really well. He is good on short climb, a great descent, strong on the flats and has a fast sprint. He is no longer a GC rival so he will not be too heavily marked. He is a master in timing a late move. He can also win the stage from a long-distance breakaway and will have options in a reduced sprint too. Gallopin can win this stage from every scenario and is our favourite to win.

 

Another rider who knows how to attack in the finale of a hard stage is Jan Bakelants who has had a great year until now. He is constantly searching for opportunities and he will be keen to take his chance in a stage that suits him well. He is probably not climbing well enough to attack on the final climb but he knows how to get clear on the descent on in the flat final section. Like Gallopin, he is fast in a sprint and will be able to beat some companions in a final dash to the line.

 

The same goes for Tom-Jelte Slagter. The Dutchman did well in today’s stage and so proved that his form for the Ardennes is solid. He suffers on longer climbs but the final ramp is a perfect opportunity for him to make a late move. He is a good descender and fast in a sprint. Cannondale are here to ride aggressively and Slagter is probably their best card to play in a finale like this.

 

Today’s stage was a big disappointment for Daniel Martin and he is now out of the battle for the overall win. However, you can never hold back a winner and he will be keen to grab an opportunity in the final part of the race. This stage suits him really well as he can attack in the finale. Furthermore, he could very well be the fastest in a sprint from a reduced group as this stage could be too hard for the really fast riders.

 

Fabio Felline will be the favourite for a sprint. The Italian has been set back by illness but showed that he is back in form by sprinting to fourth yesterday. Today he surprised most by being 20th in a stage that should have been way too hard for him and this means that he could very well survive tomorrow’s finale too. The big challenge will be the longer climbs as his explosiveness means that he should be able to handle the final ascent.

 

Simon Gerrans is maybe even faster than Felline and he has his eyes on this stage. However, it will be hard for him to survive in the finale. He has won Liege so he can definitely handle these climbs but if the pace if fast on the two long climbs, it will probably be a bit too much for him. Furthermore, it will be very hard for him to get things together for a sprint but if he is there, he will be the favourite.

 

Luis Leon Sanchez has already won a stage and there is no reason that he can’t do it again. The Astana rider is clearly in great form and this is another finale that suits him well. He won’t be given the freedom to attack from afar but he will be keen to attack on the final descent. He has the firepower to stay away on the flats and win a sprint from a small group.

 

Pello Bilbao is getting into form and he can win this stage in a number of different ways. He won’t be allowed to attack from afar but he won’t be heavily marked in the finale. He was in the top 15 in today’s stage and the final ramp is tailor-made for him. Furthermore, he is very fast in a sprint so he will even be one of the favourites if it comes down to a reduced bunch sprint.

 

Alexis Vuillermoz and Simon Yates are two very aggressive riders who can also move in the finale and have a solid sprint. However, Yates’ options will depend a lot on whether Gerrans is still in contention. Vuillermoz is even fast enough to mix it up in a sprint from a small group.

 

As said, there is a solid chance that a long-distance breakaway will make it but only riders who have lost time will be allowed to gain some ground. Gallopin is a good pick for such a group. The same goes for Thomas De Gendt, Simon Clarke, Stephen Cummings, Tim Wellens, Gianluca Brambilla, Jose Goncalves Dario Cataldo and Serge Pauwels who have all shown good form and can win a stage like this one. Especially, Cataldo has been very aggressive both here and in Catalonia and he has the right mix of skills on the flats, good climbing legs and a fast sprint to win a stage like this.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Tony Gallopin (sprint, long breakaway, late attack)

Other winner candidates: Jan Bakelants (late attack), Tom-Jelte Slagter (sprint or late attack)

Outsiders: Daniel Martin (sprint or late attack), Fabio Felline (sprint), Simon Gerrans (sprint), Pello Bilbao (sprint or late attack), Luis Leon Sanchez (late attack), Alexis Vuillermoz (late attack), Simon Yates (late attack)

Jokers to win from a long-distance breakaway: Dario Cataldo, Thomas De Gendt, Simon Clarke, Stephen Cummings, Tim Wellens, Gianluca Brambilla, Serge Pauwels, Jose Goncalves