Everybody agrees that the 2016 Vuelta al Pais Vasco is harder than usual and if anyone doesn’t believe that assessment, they just have to watch the first stage. The first day has often been one for the sprinters but in 2016 a significant amount of climbs will whittle down the field significantly and it will probably be a very small field that sprints for the win like it happened when the same finale was last used in 2014.

                                                       

The course

There are never any real sprint stages in the Vuelta al Pais Vasco but the fast riders who can overcome some climbs, have usually had some opportunities early in the race. The opening stage has often been decided in a reduced bunch sprint and this could again be the case on the opening day of the 2016 edition of the race. However, this year’s opener has been made harder than usual and features significantly harder climbs, meaning that it could be a very small group of climbers that is left at the end of a course that requires the GC riders to be on their marks.

 

As usual in Pais Vasco, the 144km stage is a pretty short affair and brings the riders from Etxebarria to Markina Xemein. The first part sees the riders travel from the start to the finish, passing two small climbs along the way, the category 3 Alto de Gontzagaigana (3.6km, 5.69%) and Alto de Santa Eufemia (4.3km, 5.70%) along the way. Both are regular ascents that never get very steep. They will pass through the finishing city for the first time after 26km of racing and then embark on a circuit that includes the category 2 climbs of Alto de Zakarate (3.5km, 7.71%) and Alto de San Miguel (5km, 5.70%). The latter will feature in the finale as the final climb of the day and the riders will get a chance to acquaint themselves with the final part of the stage as they will cover the final kilometres before crossing the line for the first time at the 84km mark where the first intermediate sprint will be contested.

 

The rest of the stage is made up of a 60km circuit that includes four climbs. First the riders will again tackle the category 3 Alto de Gontzagaigana (3.6km, 5.69%) and Alto de Santa Eufemia (4.3km, 5.70%) with 52.2km and 41.2km to go respectively. This time they won’t go back to Markina Xemein and instead they will approach the second intermediate sprint which comes with 34km to go, and the only category 1 climb of the stage, Alto de Ixua (6.2km, 7.02%), whose summit comes with 25.9 to go. It’s a tough climb as the gradient doesn’t drop below 8% in the second half. Then it’s back to the bottom of the category 2 Alto de San Miguel (5km, 5.70%) which the riders will tackle for the second time after having contested the final intermediate sprint at the bottom 13.5km from the line. The climb is relatively regular with gradients of 5-7%. The top comes with just 8.3km to go and leads to a descent which ends at the flamme rouge. The final kilometre is flat and there are no technical challenges in the final 3km.

 

Markina Xamein hosted a stage finish in 2014 and back then the riders tackled the exact same finishing circuit. It ended as a very tough stage where only 22 riders arrived at the finish together and Ben Swift showed his impressive climbing skills by staying with all the climbers before beating Alejandro Valverde and Michal Kwiatkowski in the sprint. One day later Tony Martin won the time trial in the city while Alberto Contador sealed the overall win by taking second.

 

 

The weather

The Basque Country is feared for its rainy conditions and after a couple of dry years, it seems that the 2016 edition of the race will be a very wet affair. Monday is forecasted to be rainy with a total of 12mm of rain expected during the day. There is a 60% chance of rain throughout the entire stage and there will be a maximum temperature of 14 degrees.

 

There won’t be much wind as there will only be a light wind from an easterly direction. As they zigzag thei way around Markina Xemein, the wind will be coming from all direction but it will be a tailwind in on the final climb and during the run-in to the finish.

 

The favourites

It is no wonder that there is not a single sprinter in this year’s edition of the Vuelta al Pais Vasco. Not even riders like Ben Swift, Michael Matthews and Gianni Meersman who usually do races like the Volta a Catalunya, Pais Vasco and the Tour de Romandie to get the chance to sprint from reduced groups at the end of hilly races, have included the Basque race in their calendar. The 2016 edition is harder than it has been for more than a decade and if the sprinters had been here, they would probably not have had a single chance.

 

In fact, the best chance for the fast finishers could be the opening stage and that speaks volumes about the difficult nature of the race. The finale has been used once in the past and back then the race split to pieces. Only 30 riders were left at the end of what turned out to be a very hard stage and it was made up exclusively on climbers and Ardennes specialists. The only exception was Ben Swift who proved that he is probably the best climber among all the sprinters as he survived the brutal day and beat Valverde and Kwiatkowski in the sprint.

 

This year the stage comes already on the first day which means that the riders are less tired and as there is no GC yet, the dynamics will change. In 2014, it was the final road stage and the final chance for the climbers to make a difference before the time trial but this year it is mainly one to get through for the GC riders. This means that most of them will have a relatively cautious approach as it is most about testing the legs and save as much energy for stage 2 which is the most important stage of the race.

 

The first stage in the hilly Spanish stage races can always be pretty tricky. There aren’t any sprinters and the fast finisher are uncertain about what they can do in such a tough stage that was dominated by GC riders in the past. Hence, they are unlikely to do much chase work and so it will probably be up to the GC teams to make sure that a breakaway doesn’t gain some unexpected time on the first day. They have failed to cooperate several times in the past, with the 2012 and 2015 Volta a Catalunya being two of the most recent examples of races where an early break on the first day have suddenly put the GC riders on the defensive.

 

It’s much of the same in this race and so there should be plenty of aggression in the early part of the race. Everybody knows that a breakaway has a small chance in this stage and we can expect a fast start until the break has formed.

 

When the break has gone up the road, it will be interesting to see which teams will take control. There are no obvious favourites so it must be up to Tinkoff and Movistar to do the work. They have the two biggest favourites for the overall victory and they can’t allow themselves to make a stupid mistake already on the first day. History shows that none of them are afraid of doing that kind of work and we expect them to take their responsibility. Most recently, Movistar did most of the work in opening stage in Catalonia even though they didn’t have a sprinter in that race. Last year they controlled things firmly in this race and back then they didn’t have a sprinter either. This year they actually have a few stage win opportunities so they will probably do most of the chase work.

 

Most of the climbs are relatively easy but one of them stands out. The Alto de Ixua is well-known by most of the riders as it always features in the Arrate queen stage and it is a very hard climb that can do a lot of damage if it done at a fast speed. It comes way too early for the GC riders to give it a go – they prefer to save legs for tomorrow – but if a team rides tempo, only a small group will be left in the end.

 

This climb will determine how selective the stage will be. However, it is hard to see that a single team will have a real interest in trying to set a hard pace. It could easily be a real waste of energy as none of the climbers feel confident that they will be able to win a sprint. Unless Etixx-QuickStep decide to go all in for Daniel Martin, it will probably be Movistar or Tinkoff on the front. The pace will be fast but they don’t have any real interest in making things hard. On the other hand, the wet conditions will make things nervous as everybody wants to be near the front for the descent.

 

The final climb is much easier and a gradient of 5.48% is usually not enough to challenge fast finishers like Simon Gerrans and Fabio Felline who are probably the fastest riders here. If they are still there at the bottom of that climb, they should be able to make it to the finish with the best. We may of course see some attacks on the climb but we doubt that it will be hard enough for anyone to escape. Nonetheless, a strong move can’t be ruled out, especially as the descent is wet.

 

Fabio Felline won a stage in this race 12 months ago and he will be keen to repeat that performance. His best chance comes in stages 1 and 3 and so he will be very motivated for the opening day. The Italian improved his level massively in 2015, most notably on the climbs. He mixed it up in attacks in hard mountain stages in the Giro and he finished an impressive third at the Criterium International.

 

This year he has been set back by illness and so he has not been at his usual level. However, he found his legs at the end of Paris-Nice and is likely to have improved since then as he is gearing up for the classics. If the race is very fast on the Alto Ixua, it will be too hard for him but we don’t expect that to happen. This means that he is likely to survive and in a sprint, only Gerrans and Michael Albasini can match his speed. We have doubt that those two riders will be there in the end as the climbs could be a bit too long for them and so Felline is our stage winner pick.

 

We are curious to see how Simon Gerrans will handle tomorrow’s stage. On paper, he is probably the fastst rider in the race and he has won sprints in this race in the past. However, he has rarely been very competitive on the climbs in the Basque Country as this race is mainly preparation. As a Liege-Bastogne-Liege winner, he is a really good climber but he has a hard time on the longer ascent. Alto Ixua is a real climb and we doubt that his condition is good enough to make it over that climb. It’s definitely not impossible but he needs to dig deep to be there in the end. If he is, he will be the man to beat.

 

Movistar are here to win the race with Quintana or Izagirre but they would love to win a stage along the way. It’s only of secondary importance but if they have the chance to go for a sprint win, they will do so. They have a number of fast guys in the team and Jesus Herrada, Daniel Moreno and Giovanni Visconti can all win a flat sprint like this. Herrada will probably be one of the early workers so the latter two are their best cards. Visconti is probably the fastest so he has the best chances but both will be very competitive in a sprint finish.

 

Etixx-QuickStep have done nothing to hide that they are eyeing wins with Daniel Martin in sprints from reduced groups. The Irishman is pretty fast but he needs to get rid of the likes of Felline and Gerrans. It’s definitely a possibility that Etixx-QuickStep will go full gas on Alto Ixua in an attempt to make the race selective. Carlos Verona and Gianluca Brambilla can do a lot of damage and if the race is as selective as it was in 2014, Martin could very well be the fastest.

 

Lotto Soudal are mainly here to chase stage wins and prepare for the Ardennes classics. Tony Gallopin’s main goal is to get ready for the one-day races but he will take his chance if it comes down to a sprint. On paper, he is often the fastest in these finishes but for some reason he rarely wins. Tomorrow he should again be up there but much will depend on how he has recovered from his recent block of training as he was not very good in this race last year.

 

Arthur Vichot is back in form after an illness-marred year and was in great condition in February where he won the Tour du Haut-Var overall and the final stage in a sprint from a reduced group. He has won a similar stage in Paris-Nice in the past and he should be up there in this stage too. However, it remains to be seen how well he has recovered from his illness at Paris-Nice as you never know what you get from Vichot.

 

Caja Rural have a couple of fast guys but their best card is probably Pello Bilbao. The Spaniard has had a slow start to the year but has found his legs which he proved with his great performance at the GP Miguel Indurain. He has proved that he can win bunch sprints in the past and if Caja Rural decides to ride for him, he will have Jose Goncalves for the lead-out. He still has to make it into the front group and there are no guarantees for that if the race becomes hard. Goncalves will be a second option but he has not been in great form.

 

Diego Ulissi is here to chase stage wins and he likes these kinds of sprints. However, there are several riders who are faster than him in a flat sprint so he needs luck and a hard race to win. Alexis Vuillermoz has also won this kind of sprints in the past but on paper, there are faster riders than him.

 

Simon Clarke and Tom-Jelte Slagter form a strong duo of Cannondale riders and they can both do well in a sprint from a small group. However, Slagter is rarely fast enough to win a flat sprint so Clarke will be their best option if he survives the climbs which could be too tough for him.

 

Julien Simon was once able to win this kind of sprints but he no longer seems to be as fast as he once was. Furthermore, the stage could be a bit too hard for him. Simon Geschke is another candidate but he probably lacks the speed to win.

 

Finally, we will mention Michael Albasini as a joker. He will be riding in support of Gerrans and is rarely in his best form at this race. However, if Gerrans is left behind, the Swiss may take his own chance and he has proved that he can beat most in a sprint.

 

For a late attack on the final climb or the wet descent, look out for Jan Bakelants, Gianluca Brambilla, Samuel Sanchez and Luis Leon Sanchez.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Fabio Felline

Other winner candidates: Simon Gerrans, Giovanni Visconti

Outsiders: Daniel Moreno, Daniel Martin, Tony Gallopin, Arthur Vichot, Pello Bilbao

Jokers: Jose Goncalves, Diego Ulissi, Alexis Vuillermoz, Jesus Herrada, Simon Clarke, Tom-Jelte Slagter, Julien Simon, Simon Geschke, Michael Albasini

Jokers for late attacks: Jan Bakelants, Gianluca Brambilla, Samuel Sanchez, Luis Leon Sanchez