Stage 6 turned the Tour de Suisse completely on its head and Wilco Kelderman and Andrea Talansky now find themselves in pole position to battle it out for the win. However, it is way too early to draw any conclusions as one of the hardest climbs in Europe, the brutal Rettenbachferner, awaits in Friday’s queen stage. The ascent is likely to shake things up again and create so much damage that we may even know who’s going to win the race when the riders have reached the top of the mighty glacier.

 

The course

The climbers have often been disappointed with the number of mountain stages in the Tour de Suisse but they have no reason to complain in 2016. The first two mountain stages were tough but things will only get worse in the final of three consecutive summit finishes. After the successful debut in 2015, the race will return to the brutally steep Rettenbachferner which is known as one of the hardest climbs in Europe. The climb was often visited by the defunct Deutschland Tour and now seems to become a more regular feature in the Tour de Suisse. The brutal climb will make huge time gaps and even though there are still two hard stages to come, we could very well know who’s going to win the race at the end of this stage.

 

Just like last year, the organizers have made things even tougher by having the climb come at the end of a mammoth stage of 224.3km and it even includes more climbing than it did 12 months ago. The total amount of vertical metres is 4294 which clearly indicates how tough the long southeasterly run from the Swiss city of Arbon to the top of the Rettenbachferner Glacier on the outskirts of the Austrian city of Sölden is. The first part of the stage is flat but then the road gradually starts to climb towards the bottom of the category 1 climb Hochtannbergpass (11.8km, 6.4%). Then there’s an undulating section that leads to a gradual descent to another flat part of the stage.

 

The flat riding will end after around 180km when the road again starts to climb lightly. That will serve as a warm-up for the brutal finale. The HC climb of Rettenbachferner may only be 10.1km long but it is the average gradient of 11.0% that makes it so extremely brutal. Again the KOM sprint comes with 1300m to go but the climb continues all the way to the finish as the final part averages 8.8%. The climb leaves no room for recovery as the gradient barely drops below 11% before it finally levels out a bit for the final 2km. There are several hairpin bends along the way but the final 2km follow a winding mountain road with no major turns.

 

The Rettenbachferner was twice used as a summit finish in the now defunct Tour of Germany. In 2005, Levi Leipheimer set himself up for the overall win when he led teammate Georg Totschnig across the line to make it a 1-2 for Gerolsteiner. Two years later David Lopez took the first big win of his career but it was an impressive Jens Voigt who defied all expectations on the steep slopes by finishing second just 12 seconds behind the Spanish climber and ahead of riders like Robert Gesink, Damiano Cunego and Leipheimer. In that way, he defended the overall lead and he went on to take a second consecutive overall victory in the race.

 

The climb made its debut in the Tour de Suisse in 2015 when Thibaut Pinot gauged his effort perfectly to come back from a slow start to launch a lethal solo attack and ride himself into yellow by winning the stage.

 

 

 

The weather

Today’s stage turned out to be just as wet as forecasted and there will barely be any chance to get dry as the queen stage will also be a wet affair. The sun may show itself around noon but throughout the day, there is a 75% chance of rain. The maximum temperature in Sölden will be only 8 degrees.

 

There will be a light wind from a southerly direction which means that the rides will have a combination of crosswind and headwind for most of the stage. In the final part they will have a headwind until they turn into a crosswind on the lower slopes of the climb. It will be a cross-headwind for the final 2km.

 

The favourites

Who had seen that one coming? Tejay van Garderen and Geraint Thomas had gone into the race as the two biggest favourites and had shown little sign of weakness in the first mountain stage. Especially van Garderen looked very strong in Cari but after today’s second battle in the mountains, they are both very far from the win. We could have expected one of them to crack but to see both of them lose a solid chunk of time was definitely a surprise.

 

While Thomas has not given any explanation, van Garderen writes it down to the cold conditions. He used to be a specialist in bad weather but can’t find any other reason for the sudden collapse in form. It would be no surprise if he deals worse with wet conditions though. He looks extremely skinny – much skinnier than he has done in the past – and that may have taken its toll on what turned out to be a really brutal stage. It is definitely no good news for van Garderen that the weather will be bad again tomorrow but with no late descent, there will be less chance that he gets very cold. His form is clearly good and so it is still too early to write him off – just recall how he bounced back with a great attack in the queen stage at the Tour de Romandie.

 

While van Garderen struggled, it was really Simon Spilak weather and the Slovenian bounced back with a fine ride. He still looks like an unlikely winner of the race but as the consistent Katusha captain slowly finds his legs, he can definitely get close. As opposed to this, there will be no fourth win for Rui Costa. He already played down expectations yesterday, saying that there was no reason to believe in another overall win. He has always found it hard on very steep climbs and so it was no big surprise that the climb in Amden was a bit too much.

 

The race now has two clear favourites: Wilco Kelderman and Andrew Talansky. Both are among the best time triallists in the business and they haven’t shown much sign of weakness on the climbs. Especially Kelderman has been impressive. The Dutchman claims that his numbers are better than ever and that is evident. In recent years, he has improved his time trialling but lost his edge in the mountains. Now he seems to be back at his 2014 level so the big test is what kind of effect it has had on his TT skills. His prologue doesn’t indicate that he got become any worse.

 

For Talansky, it’s a great comeback. It’s no major surprise as he rode excellently in the Tour of California – a race he could maybe have won if he had been riding for himself. His new approach to the season seems to pay off and he finally looks like the rider who was one of the most promising grand tour riders in 2014. Unlike Kelderman, he has a proven history of becoming stronger and stronger throughout a stage race so the accumulated amount of climbing should suit him well. Until now Kelderman has had the upper hand but things could very well turn around on the third consecutive day in the mountains. Furthermore, the length of both the stage and the climb should favour the American.

 

Warren Barguil cannot be written off yet. Unlike Kelderman and Talansky, he is a pure climber and he looked very strong in today’s stage where he did almost all the work on the front until Dombrowski took over. However, he is a very poor time triallist so he needs to capitalize maximally from the Rettenbachferner to win the race. Luckily he could not have wished a better climb to try to make a decisive difference.

 

While there will be a big battle between the GC contenders for the overall victory, the stage win may be out of reach. Today the break made it for the second day in a row and it could very well be an attacker that wins the queen stage too. It’s a very long stage and another wet day and bad weather always favours the attackers. It takes a massive effort to control a stage over such a distance and as there is no obvious favourite for the stage, it is hard to see who’s going to bring the break back.

 

Talansky and Kelderman are fully focused on the GC and the stage win means less to them. They will probably save energy for the final stage which can be very difficult to control for the race leader’s team. Van Garderen may want to bounce back by winning a stage but he will probably have too many doubts to ask his team to deliver such a massive effort.

 

Again we will point to Giant-Alpecin as the key team. Warren Barguil hasn’t won for a long time and he has a real shot at victory here. Furthermore, he needs the bonus seconds before the time trial so the German team could be the one to bring the break back. Spilak is clearly gaining confidence so Katusha could come to the fore too. Astana may also lend a hand as it’s a good stage for Miguel Angel Lopez.

 

It’s almost 50-50 but we will put our money on another breakaway win. The combination of bad weather and the length of the stage should favour the attackers so much that they will be allowed to stay clear. However, just like today, the start is flat and this means that the break could very well be made up of non-climbers. Today Pieter Weening and Jordi Simon were the only real climbers in the break so it was one of the easiest calls to predict the winner as soon as it became clear that the group would stay away. Tomorrow we could very well have another group of non-climbers but to win the stage, you need a solid pair of climbing legs. Rettenbachferner is so hard that massive amounts of time can be lost here.

 

In any case, we should get another very fast and aggressive start to the stage and most teams want a rider in the break, we will probably get a very big group. The battle for the points jersey will be interesting. Peter Sagan has won it several times in a row but today Maximilano Richeze took it off his shoulders. We won’t be surprised to see both of those riders in the break and battling it out for the points in the intermediate sprints.

 

Movistar bounced back with a good performance in today’s stage but as they don’t have a big favourite, their climbers will be free to attack. Winner Anacona was already in the break on stage 5 and he will definitely try again. The Colombian has had a slow start to the year but seems to be finding his best legs for the Tour de France just like he did in 2015 when he was absolutely flying in the final week of the Tour. He came up short two days ago but he should only become better and better. He is a pure climber who loves steep gradients and high altitude so the Rettenbachferner suits him really well. If he can make it into the break, he will be hard to beat so he is our favourite for the stage.

 

Darwin Atapuma has already won a stage but there is no reason to stop here. Van Garderen has dropped out of contention for the win so nothing will prevent Atapuma from attacking again. In the Giro, he proved that he can attack repeatedly and that he recovers very well. Of course he has been riding at a high level for a long time but he has shown no signs of weakness until now. In stage 5, he proved that he has matured a lot when it comes to race tactics and the steep climb at altitude suits him excellently. There is no reason that Atapuma can’t make it two in a row.

 

If it comes down to a GC battle, we will put our money on Andrew Talansky. As said, the American is back on track and he looked very strong on today’s final climb. The longer distance suits him well but his biggest advantage is the fact that the stage comes after two tough days of climbing. Talansky recovers better than almost everyone else and his diesel engine is only slowly getting warmed up. Today’s climb was a bit too explosive to suit him perfectly and he should be much more comfortable tomorrow.

 

His biggest rival will be Wilco Kelderman. As said, he looks just as strong on the climbs as he did in 2014. However, back then he suffered when the climbs got long and steep while he was more comfortable on the more explosive climbs. Until now, he has been the best climber in the race but tomorrow’s stage is a different affair. It will be a big test for Kelderman but if he can maintain his level, he will be the best of the favourites.

 

Warren Barguil has been one of the best climbers until now and he should find tomorrow’s climb even more to his liking. Steep gradients suit him well and he has a proven track record on long climbs too. Today he was not quite at Kelderman’s or Talansky’s level but he was not far off. It is definitely not impossible for the Frenchman to win this stage.

 

Bad weather and a long stage mean that it’s a good day for Simon Spilak. Like Talansky, he is a bit of a diesel engine who usually gets better at the end of a week-long stage race. Today he bounced back with a  solid ride and he is known as one of the most aggressive riders in the peloton. The longer climb should suit him pretty well and as he has lost a bit of time, he won’t be too heavily marked.

 

It is still too early to write Tejay van Garderen off. The American was the best in stage 5 and if today was just a bad day, he can definitely turn things around. As he is no longer a big threat, he will have more freedom and we would be surprised if he doesn’t try to attack like he did in Romandie. In the past, he has found it hard on such steep and long climbs but as he has improved his climbing, he should do a lot better now.

 

With Geraint Thomas losing time, the Sky riders will have more freedom. This could open the door for Vasil Kiryienka and Ian Boswell to attack. Both have been in great form until now and have proved that they can do well when they get into the right break. The final climb may be a bit too steep for Kiryienka but with a flat start, he could very well be the best climber in the break. Boswell will have a harder time joining the break but if he is there, the final climb suits him.

 

Today Michele Scarponi dropped out of GC contention. It was always going to be questionable whether he could hold his Giro d’Italia form. Now there are two possible scenarios: either he throws in the towel or he tries to bounce back with a great ride in the mountains. If he has the mental strength to do the latter, he has the climbing legs to win the stage.

 

Victor De La Parte again proved his good form in today’s stage. He lost time in the rain on stage 3 and so should have the freedom to go on the attack. Last year he crushed the opposition at the Tour of Austria and as this race is his biggest goal, he is close to peak condition. The final climb is pretty similar to the Kitzbüheler Horn where he won in Austria so why not make it another win in the Alpine country?

 

Today Joe Dombrowski was really amazing and he proved that he still has the Giro form. With Talansky now a winning candidate, he may be asked to stay with his leader but if he gets the freedom and makes it into the right break, we doubt that anyone can beat him on a climb that suits him down to the ground.

 

Natnael Berhane was really strong in stage 5 but spent too much energy. If he had gauged his effort better, he could have challenged Atapuma in the fight for the stage win. He seems to be climbing better than ever so he will be another strong contender for this stage.

 

In this race, Pawel Cieslik has confirmed that he is a great climbing talent. The Czech almost followed the best in today’s stage and as he lost a bit of time in the rain on stage 3, he may get the freedom to go for the win from a breakaway.

 

We have already pointed to Peter Stetina on more occasions. The American was so strong in California but lost time in the rain on stage 3. Hence, he is out of GC contention and this should open the door for him to attack. As a pure climber, he will find the final climb to his liking.

 

Michael Albasini and Tiesj Benoot are classics riders and not climbers. However, they can both defend themselves in the mountains. Bad weather and a flat start suit them so if they can get into the right break, it won’t be impossible to finish it off.

 

Finally, we will point to Peter Sagan. As said, the Slovakian lost the points jersey but he won’t give up without a fight. We won’t be surprised to find him in the right break and then he will see what he can do on the final climb. It will be very hard to win on such a steep climb but he has surprised in the past, most notably at last year’s Tour of California. If there aren’t any real climbers in the break, Sagan could actually be the strongest.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Winner Anacona (breakaway)

Other winner candidates: Darwin Atapuma (breakaway), Andrew Talansky

Outsiders: Wilco Kelderman, Warren Barguil, Simon Spilak, Tejay van Garderen

Jokers: Vasil Kiryienka, Ian Boswell, Michele Scarponi, Victor De La Parte, Joe Dombrowski, Natnael Berhane, Michael Albasini, Pawel Cieslik, Peter Stetina, Riccardo Zoidl, Tiesj Benoot, Peter Sagan (all from a breakaway)