Peter Sagan put on an amazing show to make it two in a row but the Slovakian will soon disappear into anonymity. With the high mountains looming on the horizon, the world champion will try to make the most of his final sprint chance in this year’s race and he should have ample opportunities to show his fast legs on stage 4 which is the easiest of the entire race.

 

The course

The first half of the Tour de Suisse is a festival for sprinters and classics riders and they will get one final chance to go for glory before the GC battle will take centre stage for the final five days of the race. The Swiss national tour usually has one flat stage where most of the sprinters can realistically go for glory and this year that stage comes on the fourth day. Stage 4 is as easy as a Tour de Suisse stage can possibly be and should all come down to a big bunch sprint.

 

The 193km course will bring the riders from Rheinfelden to Champagne and has 1912m of climbing. However, most of it comes early in the long southwesterly journey when the riders tackle the category 2 climb of Breithöhe (8.0km, 4.4%) after just 38.8km of climbing. From there, it is a predominantly flat run to the finish.

 

Finally, there will be a 19.1km finishing circuit to find the typical climb that always features at the end. This time it’s a small category 3 climb that averages 4.4% over 1.7km. The top comes with 9.9km to go and is followed by a descent that leads almost all the way to the finish. With 3km to go, the road starts to rise for around a kilometre and then it is slightly descending all the way to the line. However, there’s a very tricky finale as there’s a sharp turn at the flamme rouge and then a 90-degree right-hand turn just 100m from the line.

 

Champagne has not hosted a finish of a major bike race for more than a decade.

 

 

 

The weather

The rain had a massive impact on today’s stage and the riders can prepare themselves for another wet day in the saddle on Tuesday. Throughout the afternoon there is a 50% chance of rain, with a total of 6mm forecasted for the finish. The maximum temperature will be 17 degrees.

 

It will be a bit windier than it has been until now as there will be a moderate wind from a southwesterly direction. This means that it will be a long day with a headwind until the riders get to the small circuit in the finale. Here it will first be a cross-headwind, then a crosswind and finally a tailwind.

 

The favourites

What a show by Peter Sagan! The world champion could have been forgiven to wait for a sprint but apparently he was inspired by his own words from yesterday when he claimed that it was boring to ride for several hours to just do one effort in the finale. Sensing that his Tinkoff team was running out of steam and knowing that there was an Orica-GreenEDGE rider up the road, he launched one of the most impressive attacks of the season. It’s rare to see a rider accelerate off the front in the way he did and not even a formidable climber like Michael Matthews – who hung onto Philipppe Gilbert on the Cauberg at last year’s Amstel Gold Race – could match him.

 

It was a bit of a gamble as the peloton came close in the end and Sagan almost messed it up tactically. It has always been a problem for the world champion to stay calm in these finishes and he has lost lots of races when he has made this kind of attacks in the finale. He nearly threw the race away by launching an attack with 4km to go as it briefly ended the cooperation in the group. However, he was lucky that Albasini didn’t really play the Matthews card and soon started to work again and that Dillier was pleased just to get third place. Furthermore, he was so brutally strong that he could rectify the situation.

 

The stage was always going to be hard but the rain made it a lot tougher and it is very doubtful that Sagan would have made this kind of performance if the roads had been dry. The wet conditions made the peloton explode to pieces but the GC riders all showed great attentiveness to stay in the first group. Michele Scarponi, Miguel Angel Lopez, Joe Dombrowski and Kenny Elissonde who don’t like the fight for position, lost 14 seconds when the peloton split in the finale but all the main contenders were up ther. Among the team leaders, only Hubert Dupont, Peter Stetina, Victor De La Parte and Kanstantsin Siutsou failed to stay with the best so the stage confirmed that all the favourites are ready to battle when the race hits the mountains on Wednesday.

 

Before they get there, they have to get safely through the easiest stage of the race which could very well be another wet affair. However, the finishing circuit is a lot easier and shouldn’t cause the same kind of damage even if the roads are wet. The small climb is very easy and all the sprinters should be able to survive so we are unlikely to get the same kind of show in the finale.

 

It will be a long day with a headwind so it will be a tough day to spend in a breakaway. On paper, it should be a stage where the break gets clear almost straight from the gun but things could be different. Today it was an aggressive start and we were surprised to see the peloton let such a strong group get away. The big surprise was the presence of an Orica-GreenEDGE rider which Tinkoff and Lotto Soudal should never have allowed to happen. Tinkoff will probably be a bit more attentive though so we don’t expect the same scenario. We will probably get a smaller and less strong group as everything suggests that the sprint teams will control things.

 

Tinkoff will have to do the early pace-setting and it is interesting to see whether they will get any help. Orica-GreenEDGE are famously known for their reluctance to take share in the pace-setting. Etixx-QuickStep may come to the fore but as Fernando Gaviria is clearly not feeling well, there are no guarantees. It could be all left to Tinkoff but if they can make sure that the early break is not strong, they should be able to handle it. They did pretty well today and the terrain is very easy for most of the stage.

 

On the circuit, we can expect attacks from classics riders like Michael Albasini, Philippe Gilbert, Zdenek Stybar, Petr Vakoc, Tiesj Benoot, Simon Geschke and Tim Wellens but the climb is probably not hard enough to make a difference. In the finale, there will be several teams going for a bunch sprint so it is hard to imagine that it won’t be a day for the sprinters. However, Sagan may be forced to mark some of the attacks himself if his Tinkoff team is running out of power but unlike today, presence of the world champion will probably spell the end for the break.

 

Hence, everything is set for a sprint finish but it’s a very special one. The Tour de Suisse has always been famously known for its very technical finales and stage 4 is a very good illustration of that. It will be all about positioning in the final turn just 100m from the line and the real sprint will happen before that corner. If you are not one of the first two sprinters there, you probably don’t have any chance of success. This means that technical skills and lead-outs will be much more important than pure speed.

 

The late turn means that it is another great finish for Peter Sagan. The Slovakian doesn’t have a lead-out here – especially as Oscar Gatto is in terrible form – but he is a master when it comes to positioning. He doesn’t need any support to find the right wheel in the finale like he proved when he pushed Matti Breschel off Matthews’ wheel on stage 1. Furthermore, he has a kick like nobody else and he has the power to take the lead into that final turn. Furthermore, his excellent technical skills mean that he is probably going to carry much more speed through that turn than any of his rivals and then he can again use his kick to relaunch his sprint.

 

Sagan has always been hard to beat in technical finales and this one is tailor-made for him. The lack of team support is the only small weakness but in a race where there are no really great trains and a less stacked sprint field, Sagan should be able to come out on top in this kind of finale.

 

Until now, it has been a frustrating race for Fernando Gaviria. The Colombian crashed in stage 1 and today he was unable to follow the best. If he had been at 100%, he would definitely have been up there in the finale but as he has just returned from injury, his form is still not optimal. His lack of strength confirms what we already saw in Brabantse Pijl.

 

Still Gaviria will be the biggest rival for Sagan as he is the only rider with the speed to potentially beat the Slovakian. Like Sagan, he is a great bike-handler and he should find the technical finale to his liking. Furthermore, he has a great kick to relaunch his effort after the turn but his biggest asset is his lead-out. Maximilano Richeze is by far the best lead-out man in this race and if they can keep Sagan at bay, the two Etixx riders will be the first two riders through the final corner. If that happens, Gaviria won’t be easy to beat.

 

Michael Matthews was not strong enough in stage 2 and now he only has one chance to win a stage. He is usually not as fast as Sagan and Gaviria and needs a harder race to really excel. However, this finish is less about speed and Matthews has a great team to support him. They dominated stage 2 but we never got the chance to see if they could hold off Richeze and Gaviria as the Argentinean suddenly had to take over the sprinting role as the Colombian was not feeling well. We doubt that they have the speed to match Richeze’s excellent lead-out skills but it won’t be impossible as their overall train is stronger. That means that Matthews can be the first sprinter through the final turn and then his slower speed will be less of a problem.

 

If Gaviria is not 100%, Maximilano Richeze will again be given his chance. The Argentinean is showing outstanding form as it was a bit of a surprise as he was up there in the finale in stage 3. After his crash in San Luis, he has been riding really well in May and June ever since he finished second at the hard Rund um den Finanzplatz. He was strong in California too and Etixx-QuickStep have a great team to support him. Gaviria may even act as a domestique and this will provide him with excellent firepower. He is not as fast as the best sprinters here but he has the experience and tactical nous to position himself for the final turn and then the issue of speed will be less important.

 

With lead-outs being important, it could be another good stage for Jurgen Roelandts. The Belgian is usually not fast enough to mix it up with the sprinters but in this stage that’s less important. Instead, he can benefit from a great train that has the likes of Tosh van der Sande, Pim Ligthart and Tiesj Benoot and if they can position the former race leader well for the sprint, it could be another top result for the Belgian.

 

The importance of lead-outs also means that it’s a good sprint for Jasper Stuyven. Until now, Trek have had half an eye on Cancellara so they haven’t been fully dedicated to their Belgian. Tomorrow Stuyven should get full support and the Trek train seems to be very good. Cancellara has lots of firepower and Kiel Reijnen has the speed to do the final lead-out.

 

Danny Van Poppel is one of the fastest sprinters here but this sprint is not ideal for him. Sky are here for the GC and don’t have any fast guys to do the lead-out. The Dutchman will have to do it all on his own and that’s not easy in a tricky finish like this. It will probably cost a lot of energy to fight for position so he just has to hope that he can grab the right wheel in the finale. He is one of the fastest riders but it will be hard for him to win a stage like this.

 

Going into the race, Tosh van der Sande was likely to have been the Lotto Soudal sprinter but Roelandts’ fight for the yellow jersey changed things. Tomorrow Roelandts will probably again be protected but there is a chance that they will give van der Sande a chance. The Belgian has really stepped up his sprinting a lot and if he has Roelandts at his side, he can count on one of the very best lead-out men. That will make a huge difference in this kind of finale.

 

Reinardt van Rensburg gets a rare chance to sprint here and he seems to be in excellent form. He is not a pure sprinter but in Langkawi he showed that he can do well if he has the right team support. Dimension Data have some solid lead-out riders who have found the going a bit too tough in the first stages. Tomorrow they should all be there and that’s a great advantage for Van Rensburg.

 

LottoNL-Jumbo have Tom Van Asbroeck who seems to be in excellent condition. In the past, he would have finished far back in a stage like this one but today he was close to the best. In the past, he was known for his consistency and great positioning skills but for some reason he seems to have lost that ability. He didn’t do very well in Norway but his good form may bring him further here. He has Paul Martens for the lead-out and that gives him some solid support.

 

Roompot will be going for Raymond Kreder who had a great start to the year. He was very close to the win on several occasions but narrowly missed out every time. He has not shown great form recently but on paper he is one of the fastest riders here. With his brother Michel for the lead-out, he has some decent support.

 

If you can looking for more sprinters, keep an eye on Matti Breschel, Andrea Pasqualon, Davide Cimolai, Jhonatan Restrepo, Philippe Gilbert, Simon Geschke, Kevin Reza, Martin Elmiger, Sebastien Turgot, Simone Ponzi and Jordi Simon.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Peter Sagan

Other winner candidates: Fernando Gaviria, Michael Matthews

Outsiders: Maximilano Richeze, Jurgen Roelandts, Jasper Stuyven, Danny van Poppel

Jokers: Tosh van der Sande, Reinardt van Rensburg, Tom Van Asbroeck, Raymond Kreder