Marcel Kittel used his immense power to claim an elusive first stage win and so created the momentum in the Etixx-QuickStep team that teammate Julian Alaphilippe will try to maintain in the first really hilly stage of the race. Stage 5 heads into the difficult Massif Central riders and has a finale tailor-made for the fast Frenchman. However, Peter Sagan will also face his chances in a stage that’s on the limit of what he can handle as will the attackers on a day when it’s not obvious who’s going to control the race.

 

The course

The nature of the French geography means that the Tour de France usually gets to the longer climbs much later than they do at the Giro and the Vuelta. In 2016, however, the rapid journey from north to south means that the riders have already reached the outskirts of Massi Central at the end of the fifth stage. This allows the organizers to include a first hard finale a bit earlier than usual and even though stage 5 is not going to decide the overall winner of the race, it could give the first indication of who’s not on form to go for a top result in the biggest race of the year. At the same time, some of the punchy classics riders hope to go for glory in one of the few stages that suit their characteristics.

 

At 216km, stage 5 is the third stage in a row at more than 200km and it will bring the riders from Limoges to Le Lioran in Massif Central. Like the previous stage, it consists of a long southeasterly run towards the harder terrain in the southern part of the country. The first part of the stage takes place in one of the flatter parts of France and so there’s only the category 4 climb of Cote de Saint-Leonard-de-Noblet (1.7km, 5.2%) at the 16.5km mark to test the riders. From there, the riders will follow mainly flat roads to the city of Pont de Saint-Projet at the 133.5km mark.

 

The next 51.5km are all uphill and includes three categorized climbs along the way: the category 3 Cote du Puy Saint-Mary (6.8km 3.9%), the category 3 Col de Neronne (7.1km, 3%) and the main challenge of the day, the category 2 Pol de Peyrol (5.4km, 8.1%). The latter ascent is very tough as the final 2.4km average more than 11%. Along the way, the riders will contest the intermediate sprint just 2km after the top of the Cote du Puy-Saint-Mary. The final 500m are uphill at around 5%.

 

The top of the Pas de Peyrol comes with 31km to go and the final part of the stage is definitely not easy. Right after the descent, the riders will hit the category 2 Col du Perthus (4.4km, 7.9%) which is a very irregular climb with two kilometres at an average of more than 11%. From the top, there are still 14.5km which consist of a small descent, the category 3 Col de Fent de Cere (3.3km, 5.8%) and the final 2.5km which are mainly slightly descending. The Col de Fent de Cere is a relatively regular climb that never gets very steep and then the descending roads lead to a 500m ramp at 6% in the end. The finale is very technical as there are numerous hairpin bends on the climb and in the final 2.5km. The last of those comes just before the flamme rouge and then two turns lead to the final 90-degree corner with 190m to go. The finishing straight is on a 6m wide road.

 

Le Lioran has not hosted the finish of a major bike race for more than a decade.

 

 

 

 

 

 

The weather

Massif Central is famously known for its brutal heat but it won’t be too bad in 2016. Wednesday will be a day with beautiful sunshine and a maximum temperature of 26 degrees at the bottom of the final climb.

 

There will be a light wind from a northerly direction which means that the riders will have a cross-tailwind for most of the day. In the finale, there will be a cross-tailwind on the two category 2 climbs and the descent from the penultimate climb. Then the riders will turn into a headwind at the bottom of the final climb. At the flamme rouge, the riders will turn into a crosswind and then it will be a crosswind and a tailwind in the final 1000m.

 

The favourites

What a relief for Marcel Kittel! The German could hardly contain his emotions when it was announced that he had beaten an impressive Bryan Coquard in a very tough uphill sprint. After the failed lead-outs, Kittel was under a huge amount of pressure to finally deliver and today he really proved his class.

 

As we already said yesterday, it was evident that he had the speed, power and legs but his lack of results were simply due to poor lead-outs. Today the team did really well. Fabio Sabatini again showed that he is far from his best form as he never managed to do his part but a very strong Maximilano Richeze brought Kittel into a solid position. From there, he used his immense power to distance Kristoff and Sagan and then just had enough to kick again when Coquard seemed to come around him.

 

Many had written him off for a finish like this but it is definitely no surprise that he won in Limoges. As we pointed out yesterday, he has won a similar stage at Paris-Nice and this year he has really been climbing well. Many will remember how he impressed the entire cycling world in the Abu Dhabi Tour queen stage which had a much harder finale.

 

As opposed to this, it was a worrying sign for André Greipel. Again Lotto Soudal proved that they have the best team and they controlled the finale even though Jens Debusschere was surprisingly missing in the finale. However, Greipel apparently didn’t have the legs to finish it off and he is now running out of opportunities. If he fails on Thursday, he faces a long, nervous wait in the Pyrenees before he gets a few chances in the second week. The pressure is definitely building.

 

For Bryan Coquard, it was a frustrating near-miss. The Frenchman is turning into one of the very best uphill sprinters in the world. He already proved his huge talent in these finales at last year’s Paris-Nice and now he is even stronger. Unfortunately, he again paid for his poor positioning but if he can continue to improve on this weak point, he will be virtually unbeatable in these sprints in the future.

 

For now, the sprinters have to step into the background for 24 hours. Stage 5 will see the riders head into Massif Central and there will be no room for the fast finishers here. Only Peter Sagan has a real shot at victory here while it will be a day of survival for the rest of the fast guys.

 

The stage is a hard one to predict, not so much because of its difficulty but because of the tactics. It’s rare for a breakaway to make it to the finish in the first week of the Tour de France, especially when the yellow jersey is still up for grabs. However, a break could very well make it on Wednesday. The stage has a few favourites but they don’t have the team to control things or a real interest in keeping things together. Furthermore, the finale is very hard and you need a very strong team to keep things in check.

 

Everybody knows that it could be a great day for a breakaway so for the first time in this year’s race, we should have the first really aggressive start. However, the first part is flat so it’s a bit of a lottery to get into the right break. Only a select few rides can win in such a tough finale but there are no guarantees that there will be any strong climbers in the group after such a flat opening phase.

 

When the break has finally taken off, the interesting point comes. Who’s going to control? Tinkoff would love to keep the jersey for another day but they don’t know whether Sagan will be able to handle such a tough finale. They know that they will lose the jersey on stage 7 anyway so it may not be worth using too much energy. Furthermore, their main goal is still Alberto Contador and he prefers an easy stage. To control the finale, they need to ride hard on the final climbs and that’s not in Contador’s interest. We doubt that Tinkoff will do more than what they are obliged to in the early part of the race.

 

Etixx-QuickStep have the key to the stage. They missed out on the yellow jersey in stage 1 but Julian Alaphilippe has a real shot at both the race lead and a stage win here. However, they have done a lot of work until now and they will have to work in stage 6 too. Will they be willing to use a lot of energy in this stage?

 

The yellow jersey is a big goal so we think they will but then there’s the question of the strength. They are mostly here with a sprint team and they simply can’t control the finale. Tony Martin may be climbing better than he has done for a few years but he can’t handle it all alone. He did a massive amount of work in the final stage of the Dauphiné but he failed to catch Stephen Cummings. If Etixx-QuickStep don’t get any help, the early break or a late attack will make it to the finish.

 

It’s a great stage for Alejandro Valverde but Movistar are here to win the race with Nairo Quintana. They are unlikely to do anything to get a stage win here. Instead, Sky may be the team that ultimately takes control. It’s not a day for Froome to go on the attack as the finale is not hard enough to win the race here. However, it is so hard that you can lose it all and everybody knows that Alberto Contador is suffering. Furthermore, many riders find it hard to get the climbing legs going after a few flat days but Froome never has those issues. This is a stage where you can lose the Tour and Sky may be keen to test their rivals. If they decide to go hard on the two tough climbs, it will be very hard for anyone to get clear or for the early break to stay away.

 

Still there’s a chance that a late attack can pay off. If none of the favourites get dropped, Sky will probably ease off on the final climb which is very easy. That’s a perfect place for an aggressive rider to make a move and only Movistar will potentially have the team and will to try to control things.

 

Overall we think that Etixx-QuickStep will do the work in the early part while Sky will make things hard on the two tough climbs. This will probably make it difficult for the breakaway so we expect it to come down to a sprint from a select group. However, a late attack could very well pay off and we will definitely not rule out a breakaway win either.

 

If it comes down to a sprint, we will put our money on Julian Alaphilippe. The Frenchman is one of the fastest riders in the world in an uphill sprint – just remember the great sprint he did at the Dauphiné – and his second place in stage 2 proves that his form is excellent. He has proved that he can handle climbs like these and while he may fade later in the race, he is still relatively fresh. The technical finale suits him down to the ground as he is one of the best bike handlers.

 

In an uphill sprint, only two riders can potentially beat him. Peter Sagan is clearly faster but if Sky go nuts on the climbs, we doubt that the Slovakian will make it. Alejandro Valverde will be his biggest rival and it’s a close call who’s the fastest of the pair. Alaphilippe beat Valverde in stage 2 but in that sprint, Valverde had to close a gap. The Spaniard beat Alaphilippe in the uphill sprint at last year’s Liege-Bastogne-Liege so the score is 1-1. However, Alaphilippe is probably still that tiny bit faster – we were really impressed by that Dauphiné sprint – so we put our money on the Frenchman.

 

Alejandro Valverde went into the race with the plan to lose time in the first week. However, things can change quickly and even though he hasn’t stated it publicly, he would love to get the yellow jersey for the first time since 2008. This is a big chance for him as a sprint win will be enough – at least if Sagan has been left behind. He is one of the best in the world in an uphill sprint and like Alaphilippe, he is an excellent bike-handler for this kind of technical finish. Movistar may even have a few riders at his side to do a real lead-out and this could tip the balance in the favour of the Spaniard.

 

The big question mark is how Peter Sagan can handle the stage. The two tough climbs make it a total of almost 10km of steep climbing and that’s usually a bit too much for the world champion. If Sky go full gas, we doubt that he will be able to keep up. On the other hand, he has been climbing excellently this year and he was really impressive in stage 2. Furthermore, the descents are very technical so there will be a chance for him to get back if he fails to keep up with the best on the two steep climbs. If he’s there at the finish, he will relish the technical finish but the tough stage may have taken the sting out of his legs. Last year he was beaten by Valverde in an uphill sprint at the Vuelta after a tough finale had emptied his legs. It’s definitely possible for Sagan to win this stage but we doubt that he will be able to survive or maintain the freshness to win a sprint.

 

Etixx-QuickStep have more cards to play. Daniel Martin is another excellent uphill sprinter and his form is simply outstanding. At the Dauphiné, he climbed better than ever but in stage 2 he proved that he still has one of the best uphill sprints too. This stage will be a lot harder and this favours him even more. On paper, Valverde and Alaphilippe are slightly faster but Martin definitely has a chance. Furthermore, he could very well follow some of the attacks on the final climb and he gets to the finish with one or two riders for company, he will be very hard to beat in a sprint.

 

That kind of late attack could also be part of the plan for Wilco Kelderman. The Dutchman seems to have returned to his best on the climbs and while he still suffers on the really big mountains, he is very strong in this kind of terrain. This year he doesn’t have an eye on the GC so he will be looking for opportunities to win a stage. This kind of lumpy finale suits him pretty well as he can time trial his way up the final climb and then use his fast sprint to beat his companions.

 

Tony Gallopin will also be looking for opportunities. He knows that he won’t beat Alaphilippe or Valverde in a sprint so he will probably ride aggressively. We weren’t impressed by his form at the Dauphiné but last year he didn’t shine in that race either. When we got to the Tour, he climbed better than ever. The climbs are not too long so they suit him well, especially the last one. He likes a technical finale and is very fast in a sprint.

 

Tom Dumoulin can become of only a handful of riders to win a stage and take the leader’s jersey in three consecutive grand tours and he has admitted that this is his goal in this race. His biggest chance to take yellow comes in the first week as he is not here for the GC in the long term. He is fast in this kind of uphill sprint but his best chance is probably to anticipate the favourites. If he attacks on the final climb, he will be very difficult to catch and he has the sprint to finish it off.

 

As it is the case for Sagan, it’s on the limit whether the stage is too hard for Greg Van Avermaet. The Belgian was very frustrated after stage 2 where was boxed in and never got the chance to sprint. He claims to have felt good but his BMC director Valerio Piva says that he doesn’t have the form of last year. If he is at 100%, he may be able to survive and then he has the speed to win a sprint.

 

As said, the early break could make it and there are a few strong contenders for a breakaway. Especially, Dimenion Data have cards to play. Stephen Cummings soloed to victory in an ever harder stage at the Dauphiné and he has won stages in every WorldTour stage race he has done this year. He claims to be feeling even better than he did last year and unlike many other riders, he is favoured by the flat start. If he gets into the right break and goes into time trialling mode, he will be difficult to stop.

 

His teammate Serge Pauwels was flying at last year’s race and he targets a stage win in this year’s race. He is close on GC but as said we don’t expect Tinkoff to defend the jersey so it is not necessarily a disadvantage. The big teams would love to have him in yellow for a few days and he knows that this is a big chance. He doesn’t seem to be quite as strong as he was last year but he is not far off. This is definitely a stage that suits him well.

 

It could also be an opportunity for Edvald Boasson Hagen. The Norwegian has won mountain stages in the Tour in the past and he climbed really well at the Dauphiné. He won’t be able to survive with the GC favourites but if he gets into the right break, he can time trial his way up the steep climbs and regain contact on the descents. The final climb suits him well, he likes the flat start and he is fast in an uphill sprint. The main question is whether he has recovered from his crash on stage 1.

 

It’s time for Ag2r to go on the attack and use their many climbers. Cyril Gautier and Jan Bakelants have both shown great form at Nationals and are strong in this kind of terrain. Like Pauwels, they even have a shot at the yellow jersey so they will be keen to make it into the right move. Both are also fast in an uphill sprint. However, Bakelants crashed in stage 1 and may not be at 100%.

 

Finally, we will point to Jan Polanc. Lampre-Merida will probably try to join the break and Polanc is a very good card to play. The young Slovenian won a stage at last year’s Giro and showed great form at the Tour de Suisse. He is a great climber and even has a decent sprint.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Julian Alaphilippe (sprint)

Other winner candidates: Alejandro Valverde, Peter Sagan (both in a sprint)

Outsiders: Daniel Martin (sprint or late attack), Wilco Kelderman (late attack), Tony Gallopin (late attack or sprint), Tom Dumoulin (late attack), Greg Van Avermaet (sprint)

Jokers: Stephen Cummings, Serge Pauwels, Edvald Boasson Hagen, Jan Bakelants, Cyril Gautier, Jan Polanc (all from a breakaway)