A great Australian cycling summer will be brought to an end later this week when a strong field takes to the start of the Jayco Herald Sun Tour. The oldest Australian stage race may no longer be the biggest cycling event in the country and may only have three WorldTour teams at the start but this year it has been given a massive boost as it will mark Chris Froome’s season debut. A the same time, it is an excellent and very prestigious event that allows the local riders to gain a bit of confidence and achieve some results before they head back to Europe for the most important part of the season and it is one of the highlights for the local continental teams who will do their utmost to surprise the professional teams.

 

The Herald Sun Tour was once held in the European autumn and was a chance for European riders to make use of their good late-season condition to achieve some results in a field dominated by Australian riders. Unfortunately, the oldest stage race in Australia has had some problems that have seen it become taken off the UCI calendar and even get cancelled.

 

However, the race has now been moved to the end of the Australian summer where it is the final event in a series that also includes the National Championships, the Tour Down Under and the Cadel Evans Great Ocean Road Race. The move was made two years ago when the organizers had hoped for a great synergy between the events but they didn’t have much success. Last year the inclusion of Evans’ one-day race was expected to give a boost but that never happened. While all the WorldTour teams were at the Tour Down Under, eight had stayed in Australia for Evans’ farewell race but Orica-GreenEDGE was the only team from the highest level at the Sun Tour. Hence, it was no surprise that the local WorldTour team dominated the race by winning three of the four stages (one with Cameron Meyer and two with Caleb Ewan) and the overall with Cameron Meyer. The Avanti pair of Patrick Bevin and Joe Cooper completed the podium.

 

It always takes a bit of time for a new event to establish itself and with its new date, the Herald Sun Tour is almost like a novelty on the calendar. Hence, it is no surprise that the race has attracted a better line-up for 2016 as it is clearly a valid alternative to the races in Europe and the Middle East. Two stage races and a one-day race is a solid block of racing and unlike in Europe there is almost a guarantee that the weather conditions will be pretty good. This year Orica-GreenEDGE will be joined by Trek and Sky and even though it is still a minority that do all three races, there is clearly a better synergy now. As the race has also attracted, four foreign pro continental teams it is a much stronger field than 12 months ago. At the same time, they will all be up against several continental teams that are loaded with in-form Australians for whom the Sun Tour is one of their season highlights.

 

However, the big boost is clearly Chris Froome’s attendance. It came as a major surprise when the Tour de France champion announced that he will start his season at the smallest event in Australia instead of lining up against his fellow grand tour contenders in Europe or the Middle East but the Brit apparently prefers as less stressful start to a season where he has to be fresher for the summer than usual. While it may turn the fight for the overall win into a very predictable affair – on paper Froome is in a class of his own in this field – it will certainly give the race much needed publicity.

 

The course

The Herald Sun Tour usually has a traditional format that includes an opening prologue in Melbourne, three lumpy stages that can suit a mix of sprinters, classics specialists and attackers and the famous queen stage to the top of the short climb of Arthur’s Hill. This year the design of the course is simialr but the first three road stages are harder than they have usually been. Most notably, the first stage will include a big climb near the end and even though it has a downhill finish, it could do significant damage. The next two stages should be for the sprinters and it will come down to the battle on Arthur’s Seat, the first road stage and the minor differences that can be made in the very short prologue.

 

Prologue:

The race will kick off on Wednesday with the same very short 2.1km prologue in Melbourne that featured 12 months ago. It includes a slight rise at the beginning and has a short climb at the 1.5km mark but it is mainly flat. With several turns, it is a pretty technical affair too. Such a short prologue usually suits the sprinters more than the powerful time triallists and you need a combination of power and acceleration to do well on this kind of course. We should see a mix of those two kinds of riders come to the fore as we did in 2015 when prologue specialist William Clarke won ahead of sprinters Caleb Ewan and Brenton Jones, with the rest of the top 10 including several fast riders. In any case, the gaps will be minor as 53 riders finished within 10 seconds of the winner in 2015.

 

 

 

Stage 1:

The course has been described as harder than usual and that is in large part due to the inclusion of the first stage which is a pretty tough affair. The 126.1km course around the city of Healesville is short but after a flat start, it includes the category 2 climb of Warbuton (4.5km) at the 64.3km and the tough category 1 Mt. St. Leonard (8.3km, 5.6%) just 20.6km from the finish. From there it is a downhill run almost all the way to the line.

 

The final climb is not very steep but it is pretty long and will do significant damage. In a European race, the gradient would not be enough to separate the best climbers but in a race like this, a solo win for a great climber like Chris Froome is a very realistic outcome. This is a race that could very well see Froome make his mark right from the beginning or we could see a group of Sky riders crush the opposition. Otherwise, a small group of the best climbers will sprint it out for the win in Healesville.

 

 

 

Stage 2:

The sprinters will hope to get their first chance in the 144.2km second stage that brings them from Yarra Glen to Moe. It has a flat start and a rolling middle section with three categorized climbs – one in the second and two in the third category – which leads to a mostly descending final third. The stage ends with a 14.9km finishing circuit that includes a steep little climb at the midpoint.

 

In the past, this kind of stages have often been used to do some damage when the major teams have created carnage on some of the early climbs and made the races harder than expected. This year the field is a lot stronger and so will be more controlled so this should be an opportunity for the sprinters. The small climb on the circuit is a solid launch pad for a late attack and will be a challenge for some of the fast finishers but the most likely outcome is a sprint finish.

 

 

 

Stage 3:

If the sprinters found the going a bit too tough in stage 2, they can expect to get their chance on the penultimate day. The 146.2km stage from Traralgon to Inverloch includes two minor category 3 climbs in the first half but is predominantly flat. However, the final part of the stages consists of a small loop close to the sea and the final few kilometres will see the riders travel along the coastal road back to Inverloch. This could create some nervous racing and offer and opportunity to split things in the crosswinds. However, it is most likely to be a straightforward sprint stage.

 

 

 

Stage 4:

Everything will be decided in the final stage which is the traditional queen stage to the top of the famours climb of Arthur’s Seat. The short 121.8km both starts and finishes at the top of the climb and sees the riders first tackle a big loop in the undulating terrain in the area before they climb the 3km ascent with its 8.1% average gradient for the first time. The final part of the stage consists of two laps of a 16.4km circuit that is mostly downhill until the riders hit the bottom of the climb which will be tackled no less than 3 times.

 

The climb of Arthur’s Seat is not very long but it is pretty steep and it is hard to enough to create time gaps that will go a long way in deciding the overall win in the race. It has been scheduled for both previous editions since the race returned to the UCI calendar in 2014 but it was cancelled in 2014 due to bushfires. Last year it was a scene of a thrilling battle between Cameron Meyer and Patrick Bevin, with the latter claiming the stage win and the former taking the overall victory.

 

 

 

The weather

One of the attractions of the Herald Sun Tour is the good weather that is usually offered during the Australian summer. This year should be a hot one for the riders as there will be bright sunshine for the last four stages and only little wind. The final three days will have temperatures between 28 and 32 degrees while Thursday will be colder at 22 degrees. Wednesday is likely to be a rainy day but it is expected to be dry for the twilight prologue.

 

The favourites

The Herald Sun Tour has often been a rather an uncontrollable affair where breakaways have managed to steal the show and change the predicted outcome. However, the arrival of a big team like Sky that go into the race with a formidable line-up and big ambitions, mean that there will be very little room for surprises. The British team are likely to take control of the race right from the beginning and as Orica-GreenEDGE are also aiming for sprint wins with Caleb Ewan, the race should be a lot more predictable.

 

Stages 2 and 3 are destined to be decided by the sprinters and are unlikely to change the outcome of the race. There is a chance that we will see some crosswind in stage 3 but as it won’t be very windy, splits will only be minor. Hence, the GC will come down to the prologue and stages 1 and 4.

 

The time gaps in the prologue will be very small and will hardly play any role and so it will be a race for the climbers. On paper, the summit finish on Arthur’s Seat will be the crucial stage but stage 1 can’t be underestimated. The final climb is not very steep and in a European race it would probably not be enough to separate the best climbers. However, Sky have by far the strongest team in this race and there is a big chance that they will make the race blow to pieces right from the beginning. It would be no surprise if the Brits already decide the race on the first road stage.

 

This race marks Chris Froome’s debut appearance in 2016 and even though he is clearly aiming for a low-key start far from the European stress, there is no doubt that he is going for the overall win. The Tour de France winner is always competitive and in this race he is by far the best climber. The prologue is probably a bit too explosive for him and he will probably not be able to match the sprinters in such a short effort. However, he is likely to make his mark on stage 1 where he could ride away to a solo win. In any case, he should be a class of his own on Arthur’s Seat. Barring disaster, Froome should win this race easily.

 

His biggest rivals are probably from his own team. Peter Kennaugh proved his great form in the Cadel Evans Ocean Road Race and he is clearly one of the best climbers in this race. It would be no surprise if he and Froome turn out to be the strongest climbers in the race. If they are able to drop everybody else, there is a solid chance that Froome will allow Kennaugh to win the race. The Brit has already won the Coppi e Bartali and Tour of Austria overall and knows how to excel in short, hilly stage races. We doubt that anyone will be able to follow the British pair on the climbs and then it is up to Froome whether Kennaugh will be the winner or not.

 

Another excellent Sky climber is Ian Boswell who had a bit of a breakthrough in 2015. He is likely to continue his progress in 2016 and he was the rider that set Kennaugh up for his race-winning attack at the Cadel Evans Great Ocean Road Race. He is clearly not at his best yet but he is an excellent climber. It won’t be impossible for Froome, Kennaugh and Boswell to drop the rest and if that’s the case, it could be Boswell’s time to win.

 

Orica-GreenEDGE have won this race twice but in 2016 they are likely to come up short. Their main focus is the sprints with Caleb Ewan but they have an exciting overall contender too. Jack Haig is one of the biggest Australian stage race talents and he was second in the Tour de l’Avenir in 2015. He rode very well at both the Australian Nationals and the Cadel Evans Great Ocean Road Race where he made it into the group that sprinted for second and did a big job for Simon Gerrans. In this race, he will be allowed to go for GC but it will be a massive task for him to take on the Sky armada.

 

There’s an Australian national team at the start and it is composed of some of the most exciting U23 riders from the host country. It includes the talented pair of Chris and Lucas Hamilton who proved their huge potential on Willunga Hill at the Tour Down Under. Both riders were on the attack in the finale of the queen stage at their WorldTour debut and Chris finished the stage in 11th while Lucas was 14th. A crash had taken the latter out of GC contention but the former rode consistently well to take 14th. Furthermore, they made it a 1-2 at the U23 National Championships. Both Hamiltons are great climbers and should do well in a race that will be decided on the climbs. Of course they aren’t going to beat Froome on Arthur’s Seat but they should be close to the front.

 

Drapac go into the race who won a stage at the Tour of Utah and was 6th in both that race and the USA Pro Challenge in 2016. On paper the course suits him well as he can do well in the prologue, is a good climber and a great descender. However, he had a pretty poor Tour Down Under and if he wants to contend for the podium, he needs to show clear improvement compared to the WorldTour race.

 

ONE Pro Cycling go into the race with a two-pronged attack of Dion Smith and James Oram. The latter has been hailed as the biggest talent but it is the former that finished fifth at last year’s Tour of Alberta. Both have shown good form recently and were in the mix at both the New Zealand Cycle Classic and the Cadel Evans Great Ocean Race. Both have the potential to do well on this course and should be among the best climbers. As Smith is also pretty fast, he should do a good prologue and may even pick up bonus seconds along the way.

 

On paper, Sebastian Henao is one of the best climbers in the race but he didn’t show good form at the Cadel Evans Great Ocean Road Race. He is probably far down the pecking order at Sky and will be used for the early work. However, it is hard to base too much on a one-day race that didn’t really suit him. If he has his best legs, he could be the Sky rider that is allowed to take the win.

 

Damiano Cunego is one of the stars in the race but the Nippo-Vini Fantini captain did a poor race last Sunday. He doesn’t seem to be in his best form and so is unlikely to be a contender. However, the one-day race was his season debut and may not be fully indicative of his form.

 

Finally, Michael Storer deserves a mention. He has been on the podium at the Junior World TT Championships and has done well in some big junior races in Europe. However, most were surprised to see him stay with the best at all the key points in the Cadel Evans Great Ocean Road Race. Of course the climbing is a lot harder in the Sun Tour but it will be interesting to see what the 18-year-old youngster can do.

 

***** Chris Froome

**** Peter Kennaugh, Ian Boswell

*** Jack Haig, Chris Hamilton, Lucas Hamilton

**Lachlan Norris, Dion Smith, Sebastian Henao, James Oram, Damiano Cunego, Michael Storer

* Steven Lampier, Jack Bobridge, Patrick Lane, Damien Howson, Nathan Earle, Ben Dyball, Joe Cooper, Julien Bernard