Tom Dumoulin did what he failed to do a few months ago in Utrecht and now gets to enjoy a huge celebration on home soil in what will be a big Dutch party in the first road stage. While the feared wind doesn’t seem to play a role, he has to keep an eye on an in-form Marcel Kittel whose great time trial put him in a position to go for pink already on the second day of the race.

 

The course

The Giro d’Italia will stay in the Netherlands for three days and as the small country is almost completely flat, there will be lots of chances for the sprinters in the opening part of the race, making the first week more suited to the fast guys than it has usually been. After the opening time trial, both Dutch road stages are flat and while the GC riders try to avoid any dangers caused by the wind, the sprinters hope for two bunch kicks before they head to Italy for the hillier terrain.

 

The first road stage brings the riders over 190.0km from Arnhem to the nearby city of Nijmegen which is just a few kilometres south of the starting city. The route runs basically flat along the plains surrounding the start and finish cities, coming across minor climbs and mild descents, villages, roundabouts and speed bumps. The first part will see the riders head to the west until they reach the city of Tiel after 82.9km of. From here they will turn around and head towards Nijmegen. The road narrows at km 90, where the route covers a short stretch of the cycle path. While approaching the finish, the riders will do a small lap in the area south of Nijmegen where the route takes in the two intermediate sprints at the 135km and 146.8km marks respectively and the first categorised climb of the Giro, 1.1km long with an average gradient of 6.5% and with gradients topping 11%, after 155.3km of racing. The stage finale leads to an 8.6km city circuit within Nijmegen, to be covered twice.

 

The final 8.6km circuit runs along wide, straight urban avenues, dotted with roundabouts. The route passes over the Waal River twice on bridges that have slight up- and downhill gradients. There aren’t many technical challenges on the mostly flat circuit. The home straight is 350m long, on 8m wide asphalt road. The final kilometres are slightly curved, but with no real bends, meaning that it’s a very fast finale.

 

Nijmegen last hosted a major bike race in 2001 and 2002 when the Dutch Championships were held in the city. After Jans Koerts had won in 2001, it was Stefan Van Dijk who took the tricolour jersey one year later.

 

The weather

When the Dutch Grande Partenza was announced, many riders feared that the wind would destroy all their GC hopes before they had even reached Italy. However, summer has arrived early and while Sunday could offer some drama due to increasing wind speeds, Saturday should be calmer.

 

It will be bright sunshine all day and the temperature will reach an unusual maximum of 27 degrees. There will be a moderate wind from a southeasterly direction which means that the riders will first have a tailwind, then a crosswind and then a headwind. In the final part, leading to the circuit, there will mainly be a tailwind. On the circuit, it will be a cross-headwind in the second half until the riders turn into a cross-tailwind for the short finishing straight.

 

 

 

 

 

 

The favourites

It all failed last year in Utrecht but today everything came together for Tom Dumoulin. He may not have been completely satisfied with his ride but it was enough to make it a great day for the Dutch fans. Of course he benefited from Fabian Cancellara’s illness but that will soon be forgotten and even though he may briefly lose the jersey to Marcel Kittel, he can potentially wear pink for most of the first half of the race which is not very difficult and includes a long time trial that is tailor-made for his characteristics.

 

While Dumoulin’s win was expected, the big surprise was of course Primoz Roglic. Known as a climber, the Tour de Slovenie winner has always been a huge stage race talent but he has never done well in TTs. We remember how LottoNL-Jumbo described the Algarve TT earlier this year as a good chance for him to try doing a time trial at this level. After today’s ride, he again underlined that he is a quick learner and that it is no coincidence that he has managed to jump from ski jumping to cycling very quickly. His main goal in this race is to work for Steven Kruijswijk – who did an excellent time trial and confirmed the good form he showed in Yorkshire – but he could very well be the surprise of the 2016 Giro if he can maintain his level for three weeks.

 

Among the pre-race favourites, Vincenzo Nibali was always likely to be the winner as he has improved his time trialling massively. He fully lived up to expectations and gained five seconds on Alejandro Valverde who had a solid ride on a course that didn’t suit him. Mikel Landa lost 21 seconds which is a clear sign of improvement as he would usually not even have finished in the top 100 on this kind of course in the past.

 

Another big winner was Esteban Chaves. One year ago, the tiny Colombian was a poor time triallist but he showed huge progress in the Vuelta TT last autumn. Apparently, he has continued his rapid progress and today’s stage was definitely the time trial of his life as he only lost 11 seconds to Nibali and even beat the likes of Ilnur Zakarin and Rigoberto Uran.

 

Looking ahead to the final part of the Dutch adventure, the big winner was Marcel Kittel. As we already mentioned yesterday, the former TT specialist still has the ability to do good prologues and we would have tipped him for a top 10 if he was on a great day. However, a fifth place in such a classy field is a big surprise and it fully confirms what we have known since February: Kittel is stronger than ever before.

 

However, there was a tiny bit of frustration for Kittel. If he had just gone a little bit faster, a stage win would have been enough for him to take the maglia rosa. Now he needs to pick up one or two seconds in one of the intermediate sprints (depending on the exact times of the TT which we don’t have access to yet) to move into the lead. That makes it pretty interesting as both sprints come relatively far from the finish and so Etixx-QuickStep will have to bring the break back early if they want Kittel to take pink already tomorrow.

 

Many GC riders feared the Dutch adventure and it seems that we could get some crosswind action on Sunday when the wind will be pretty strong. Tomorrow it will be less windy though and the main crosswind section comes relatively early in the stage. In the final part, it will mainly be a headwind but there’s a short section with a cross-tailwind at the second intermediate sprint. However, it is probably too short and comes too far from the finish to make any real difference, especially with this relatively calm wind. However, there will be lots of nervousness in this phase and this could very well mean that we will see the usual crashes.

 

In these kinds of stages, the break always gets clear almost straight from the gun and that’s likely to be the case again on stage 2. The wildcard teams and LottoNL-Jumbo will be keen to be part of the action and it would be no surprise to see Maarten Tjallingii who is ending his career at this race, bid farewell to his home public by going on the attack. He would love to get the mountains jersey like he did two years ago but Etixx-QuickStep could throw a spanner in his works. If Kittel wants the maglia rosa, the break will be caught before the intermediate sprints and the KOM sprint but if that’s the case, we should definitely see more attacks after the battle for the bonus seconds. On the other hand, the nervousness will make it difficult to escape.

 

We expect Giant-Alpecin, Etixx-QuickStep and Lotto Soudal to control the stage for most of the day. Trek may lend them a hand but those three teams should be the dominant forces. They will make sure that things come back together for a sprint and with little wind, we expect a full bunch sprint in Nijmegen.

 

The finishing circuit is relatively straightforward but the headwind in the final part will make the timing very important. There’s a turn just 350m from the line but it looks like more of a sweeping bend that won’t require any braking. Hence, it will be a very fast sprint for the really powerful guys.

 

This means that the stage has Marcel Kittel written all over it. The German has only been beaten in one sprint this year when Elia Viviani came around him on stage 2 in De Panne. He only lost that sprint because he spent too much time in the headwind and all year it has been evident that he is still the fastest rider in the world. He has even won those sprints while he was not at 100% but his performances in Romandie and in today’s time trial suggest that he is now even better.

 

The power sprint suits Kittel really well but he still needs to get into a good position. For this, he can rely on one of the best trains in the field. Matteo Trentin and final lead-out man Fabio Sabatini have lots of experience and Lukasz Wisniowski and Bob Jungels can maintain a high speed in the finale. There aren’t any really powerful trains here and only IAM and Trek have the potential to challenge Etixx-QuickStep. In any case, Kittel should be able to start his sprint from a good position and this makes him the obvious favourite.

 

His biggest rival could very well be Giacomo Nizzolo. Actually, the Italian is not really suited to this kind of power sprint but at the Tour of Croatia, he sprinted better than ever before, beating Mark Cavendish fair and square on a number of occasions. Furthermore, he is supported by a formidable train with the likes of Jack Bobridge, Fabian Cancellara, Eugenio Alafaci, Marco Coledan and final lead-out man Boy van Poppel. They have the firepower to challenge Etixx-QuickStep and if they can drop Nizzolo off in the best position, he seems to be sprinting well enough to win a sprint that is actually not made for him.

 

We are very curious to see what Caleb Ewan can do here. The Australian was in a class of his own in Australia earlier this year and he was the only rider who could challenge the dominant Fernando Gaviria at Tirreno-Adriatico. In last year’s Vuelta he proved that he can also win on the biggest scene and this sprint and easy stage should be to his liking.

 

However, the positioning could be an issue. He has Sam Bewley, Michael Hepburn and Luka Mezgec for the lead-out which is a solid train. However, Mezgec and Ewan didn’t really time things well in Yorkshire and they need to do better here. If they manage to do that, Ewan has the speed to challenge Kittel.

 

André Greipel is of course one of the fastest sprinters in the world but it will be difficult for him to win a lot here. He doesn’t have his usual lead-out train and only Jurgen Roelandts is a real lead-out man. Greipel is always poor at positioning himself and relies heavily on his train and so he is already severely disadvantaged. Furthermore, he is still returning to his best form after his rib injury and even though he won a stage, he was not spring at his best level in Turkey. He should find the power sprint to his liking but it will be hard to win without much support.

 

The same goes for Elia Viviani. This is a real bunch sprint for the fastest riders and this year Viviani has proved that he is one of them. He beat Kittel in De Panne and won a stage in Dubai, just like he beat some of the fastest sprinters in the world in the Giro and in Dubai and Abu Dhabi last year. However, Sky are here with a team of climbers and he will be completely on his own in the finale. It will cost him a lot of energy to find a good position in the finale. He will try to get onto Kittel’s wheel like he did in De Panne but it will be very hard without a lead-out. He has the speed to win but may lack the team support.

 

Matteo Pelucchi finds himself in opposite position. IAM have an excellent rain with fast guys like Heinrich Haussler, Leigh Howard and Roger Kluge. However, the train hasn’t really worked well yet and they performed very poorly in Croatia. On the other hand, the finales in that race were very complicated and they will benefit much more from their power and speed here. On paper, they have the power to give Pelucchi the perfect lead-out and he has proved that he is one of the very fastest in a real sprint at the end of a fast day.

 

Jakub Marezcko has long been hailed as the next Italian top sprinter and this year he has really confirmed hi potential. He has beaten Elia Viviani in San Luis, Andrea Guardini in Langkawi and most recently Andre Greipel in Turkey where he won two stages. After a bout of illness in April, he is back on form and he is one of the fastest in the world. However, he is not very good at positioning himself and lacks a lot of experience at this level. With Filippo Pozzato, Liam Bertazzo and Manuel Belletti, he has a very good team to support him but it remains to be seen if it’s enough to get into a decent position.

 

Arnaud Demare is one of the big-name sprinters here but it won’t be easy for him to win this kind of sprint. The Frenchman positions himself very poorly and at the end of such an easy stage it will be crowded in the finale. There is no doubt that he is one of the fastest here but his poor positioning makes him very inconsistent and he needs some luck to find an opening here even though he can count on Mickael Delage for the final lead-out.

 

Sacha Modolo won two stages last year but back then he had Maximilano Richeze at his disposal. The train of Roberto Ferrari-Richeze-Modolo was in a class of its own but now Ferrari has to do all the work on his own. That worked very well in Turkey where Modolo won two stages but it will be much more difficult here. Furthermore, Modolo is usually not fast enough to beat the really powerful sprinters in such a finale.

 

Giant-Alpecin mainly want to defend Tom Dumoulin’s jersey but they will also go for the sprint with Nikias Arndt. The German is in outstanding form as he climbed excellently in Yorkshire where he also sprinted to two third places. With Bert De Backer at his side he has a very experienced lead-out man but he is probably not fast enough to win this power sprint.

 

Finally, we will point to Nicolas Ruffoni. The Italian showed huge potential two years ago when he nearly beat both Kittel and Cavendish at the Tour of Britain. He has not been at the same level since but in Croatia he seemed to be getting back on track, most notably when it came to his poor positioning. He will find this easy stage to his liking and has a good lead-out with Sonny Colbrelli and Paolo Simion.

 

For more sprinters keep an eye on Moreno Hofland, Alexander Porsev, Eduard Grosu, Ivan Savitskiy, Kristian Sbaragli, Ramunas Navardauskas, Rick Zabel and Daniel Oss.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Marcel Kittel

Other winner candidates: Giacomo Nizzolo, Caleb Ewan

Outsiders: André Greipel, Elia Viviani, Matteo Pelucchi, Jakub Mareczko

Jokers: Arnaud Demare, Sacha Modolo, Nikias Arndt, Nicola Ruffoni