The Tour Down Under and the Tour de San Luis offered the first chance to get in some early racing kilometres and now it is time for one of the most important blocks of racing in the first part of the season. For a few years, the Tours of Qatar and Oman have offered the perfect conditions for preparation and in 2014 the series of races in the Middle East was extended with the addition of the inaugural Dubai Tour. In its first year, the race managed to attract one of the most star-studded line-ups for a February race and while the course may not offer the most exciting kind of racing, the race presents a perfect opportunity to build condition for later objectives.

 

With the Tours of Qatar and Oman having proved that racing in the Middle East can both be very exciting and attract the world's greatest stars, it was always just a question of time before the wealthy Dubai City would venture into cycling. After a few years of planning, 2014 was the season where their assault on the cycling world kicked off in earnest, with the creation of a new continental team and a major UCI race.

 

The latter is the Dubai Tour whose inaugural edition was held that year. While it was Tour de France organizer ASO who took the brave decision to put up the first major race in the Middle East by hosting the Tour of Qatar in 2002 and later adding the Tour of Oman to their ever-growing portfolio of races, the local Dubai authorities have teamed up with Giro d'Italia organizers RCS Sport to put on their new race.

 

In recent years, the block of racing in the Middle East has developed into what has arguably been the most important preparation phase for several of the world's biggest stars. Even though the Qatari race if mostly one for the sprinters and classics riders and the Omani event offers the climbers and stage race specialists a chance to shine, a lot of riders do both races to get in 12 days of quality racing in good weather conditions.

 

With the addition of the Dubai Tour, the block is now 4 days longer, meaning that few riders are expected to do all three races. In the past, the Tour of Qatar has started just the day after the conclusion of the race in Dubai but this year there is one day for the travel. However, as the two different organizers also mean that the line-ups of teams are different, the racing block doesn’t have the same kind of homogeneity as it has had in the past.

 

The Tours of Qatar and Oman both have characteristic and exciting courses that have given them their own unique brands. The windy desert roads in Qatar are perfectly suited to high-speed training for the cobbled classics, with the many echelons sharpening the riders' ability to fight for position. As opposed to this, Oman has developed into what is undoubtedly the first big rendezvous for the grand tour riders.

 

Without the kind of unique terrain that characterizes its fellow Middle East races, the Dubai Tour probably has the least exciting course of the three races. With extensive TV coverage, we are guaranteed to see a lot of beautiful images from the city as the riders will head around some of its famous landmarks but the course is mainly one for the sprinters, with the wind not expected to play the same role as it does in Qatar.

 

To add excitement to the race, the organizers decided to include an opening time trial for the inaugural edition and as expected it completely decided the final GC, with bonus seconds on the remaining stages failing to have much of an impact. Last year the organizers decided to change the script as the time trial was replaced by another sprint stage. Instead, the slightly hillier third stage is finished on a short 200m climb with sections of up to 17%. This was expected to tip the balance from the time triallists to the puncheurs but in the end it was a sprinter coming out on top as Mark Cavendish limited his losses on the climbs and picked up lots of bonus seconds in the sprints. However, the Middle East block is now complete, offering a race for both classics riders and sprinters, puncheurs and sprinters, and climbers.

 

Despite the less interesting course, the race attracted what was simply a fantastic line-up for a new early-season race in both 2014 and 2015. This year the line-up is a bit less star-studded but it still includes big names like Mark Cavendish, Marcel Kittel, Rui Costa, Tony Martin, Philippe Gilbert, Fabian Cancellara, Elia Viviani and Bradley Wiggins. For riders like Costa and Martin, the reasons for their attendance are less obvious given that the course doesn't do them many favours, but the good organization, the influence from RCS, and the wealthy organizers are likely to have played a crucial role in attracting the many big names. The UCI has recognized the race by awarding it a 2.HC status for just its second edition which clearly indicates the quality of the field and the huge ambitions of the organizers.

 

The less star-studded line-up reflects the fact that the races in the Middle East have generally lost the battle for attention in 2016. Most WorldTour teams have decided to skip the Tours of Qatar and Oman which have significantly poorer field. The peloton will be much stronger in Dubai but it now seems that the return of the Volta a la Valenciana in Spain has prompted lots of teams to opt for a more traditional preparation in Europe and avoid the travel. It remains to be seen if the Middle East will again be able to bounce back in 2016 when the Tour of Oman may even disappear from the calendar.

 

While some of the big names are unlikely to be focused on their results, the race will be a good opportunity to get in the racing kilometres and hone their condition with some high-speed racing. As the organizers get the chance to show off the beauty of their city and can capitalize on the presence of the sport's biggest stars to do so, the fit is a perfect one. In the first two years, it was hard for the racing to live up to the hype but there is little doubt that the Dubai Tour has all the ingredients to become an integrated part of the early part of the season.

 

After Taylor Phinney had won the inaugural edition, Mark Cavendish became the second winner of the race. The Brit won the first stage and was second in the second bunch sprint but dropped to second overall after the hilly stage which was won by John Degenkolb. However, a stage win in the final stage allowed him to pick up enough bonus seconds to take the overall victory with a six-second advantage over Degenkolb while Juan Jose Lobato was four seconds further back in third. All three riders were set to ride again in 2016 but with Degenkolb now recovering from his training crash, last year’s queen stage winner will be absent. However, Cavendish will be back, wearing dossard number one, while Lobato will now be the clear Movistar leader as Alejandro Valverde will skip the race for the first time in its history.

 

The course

With little natural elevation in the Dubai area, it was always difficult for organizers RCS Sport to put together an attractive route for the the Dubai Tour, especially as commercial aspects force them to have most of the race taking place inside the city. With its wealthy backers, the race already managed to attract a star-studded line-up for its first year but even their money cannot change the geography of the United Arab Emirates. With no Omani climbs and no Qatari wind, the route may more be spectacular for its surroundings that take in many of Dubai's landmarks than for the sporting spectacle.

 

As said, the inaugural edition featured an opening time trial, two flat stages for the sprinters and a hillier stage that was still decided in a bunch sprint. The second edition was more favourable to the fast men as the time trial was replaced by another flat stage for the sprinters. To challenge the riders a bit, they headed out in the desert on the third day in 2014 and last year they made that stage decisive by having the riders finish at the top of a 200m climb with sections of up to 17%.

 

In general, the 2016 race will be very similar. The tough finale to stage 3 will feature again while the spectacular finish on Palm Jumeirah Island on stage 2 is back too. The final stage is again a flat stage in the city but the finish has been changed. The novelty is that the opening stage will leave the city of Dubai and so give a bit more racing in the desert. However, it is still expected to suit the sprinters and so the race will be very similar to last year’s edition.

 

 

Stage 1

With the decision to skip the opening time trial, the organizers had to design a completely new route for the opening day in 2015. Unsurprisingly, the stage will be held entirely within the borders of Dubai city but this year the organizers have decided to change things a bit as they will send the riders through the desert and into the Emirate of Fujeirah on the opening day. This means that there will be more wind and more climbing but the course is still predominantly flat.

 

The stage will be known as the Dubai Silicon Oasis stage and joins the beach of Dubai Marina on the Arabian Gulf with the beach of Fujairah on the Indian Ocean (Gulf of Oman). It has a total length of 179km and runs through the entire stretch of desert between Dubai and Fujairah through the territory of four different Emirates (Dubai, Sharjah, Ras al-Khaimah, Fujairah).

 

The first part is flat and is held inside the city of Dubai. Here the riders will do the first intermediate sprint at the Dubai Silicon Oasis after 38.6km of racing before facing the long straights that, cutting through the dunes, lead to the Hajar Mountains for a short and mild sequence of hills. The highest point comes at the 110.4km mark when the riders will reach an altitude of 178m above sea level. Then the race arrives in Fujairah on the Indian Ocean where there will be a 6.6km circuit to be completed twice. There will be intermediate sprint points at the first passage of the finish line.

 

The 6.6km circuit is composed of a 3.3 km northbound stretch and a 3.3 km southbound stretch along the Corniche Road lanes, connected by two U-turns on large roundabouts. The home stretch is about 2.800 m long on an 8 m-wide asphalted roadway. It is a high-speed, flat affair with no major technical challenges.

 

The terrain is a bit hillier than it is usually the case in Dubai but in the past there has never been enough wind to create much damage. Unless the weather conditions are markedly different, this should be a traditional sprint stage. The climbing will not do anything to challenge the fast finishers who will save their energy for the final sprint. However, the puncheurs who hope to win the race overall by doing well in stage 3 may go for bonus seconds in the final intermediate sprint which comes at a point when the early break has probably been caught.

 

Fujeirah has never hosted a finish of a stage before.

 

 

Stage 2:

The sprinters that lost out in the opening stage will get an immediate chance to take revenge as the second day is another one for the fast men. The course is very similar to the one that was used for last year’s second stage even though the riders will tackle it in the opposite direction. Most of the stage will be held in the city of Dubai but will pass through its outskirts as it passes some of the major sports facilities, meaning that there are actually a few elevation gains in this stage. It will have the same spectacular finish on the Palm Jumeirah Island that was used in both 2014 and 2015 but like last year it will have a longer distance than it had in the first year, something that has been requested by the riders.

 

Known as the Nakheel Stage, the 188km route will of course start at the Dubai International Marine Club and is divided into two parts: The first part is just outside the metropolis, partially in the desert, the second part within Dubai Marina to end in Palm Jumeirah, in front of the Atlantis “door”.

 

The first part will pass next to the Camel Track, the Al Qudra bike path, the Hamdan Bin Mohammed Bin Rashid Sports Complex pool and through the desert. It includes long, straight roads that are mostly flat and offers intermediate sprints at the 77.2km and 105.5km marks.

 

The second part returns into the city touching Dubailand, the Jumeirah Golf Club and Dubai Sports City where there will be lots of corners as riders zigzag their way through the city. The final intermediate sprint comes with 50.1km to go.

 

The stage then heads to the finale on the Palm through an underwater tunnel before the last kilometres, with a turning point on the artificial island. From here there will be 3200m to the final sprint. The final 3 kilometres are virtually straight (although on constantly slightly-bending road), with some roundabouts along the way. The home stretch is 800 m-long (still bending slightly), on 7 m-wide, asphalted roadway.

 

This stage has all the characteristics of a traditional sprint stage. The riders will head into the desert in the first part where the potentially windy conditions could do some damage. However, that is unlikely to happen and there will be plenty of time to bring things back together. However, the final kilometres are extremely exposed to the wind and in the past edition it made for some extremely nervous racing, with the sprint trains fighting hard to get to the front before they hit the decisive tunnel in the finale. It is hard to imagine that the stage won’t be decided in a bunch sprint but if it’s a windy day, splits could occur in the finale which may be crucial in a stage that is set to be decided by seconds.

 

In 2014 Giant-Shimano won the battle of the lead-out trains and delivered Marcel Kittel to the win, with the German holding off Peter Sagan and Taylor Phinney. Last year it was Elia Viviani who benefited from a great Sky lead-out to beat overall leader Mark Cavendish and claim his first win in Sky colours.

 

 

Stage 3:

For the first time, the riders will get two chances to leave the city for more than just a brief stint. Like in the past years, the third stage will bring them into the desert and over some of the small climbs in the area before they again will finish in Hatta. In 2014 it was a flat finish and the late climbs failed to make much of a difference but last year the organizers introduced the punchy finale on the Hatta Dam which will again feature in 2016. However, the organizers have taken out some of the late climbs that created selection last year and it will be much easier to still be in contention for the uphill sprint

 

Known as the Westin stage, the 172km stage replicates almost entirely the inaugural edition stage, with the addition of the harder final climb of Hatta Dam as experienced in 2015. It’s characterized by long stretches in the desert crossing the two neighboring Emirates of Sharjah and Ras-al Khaimah.

 

The stage has its usual start at the Dubai Marine Club. Once it has left the last buildings in Dubai, the stage will touch Labab, Al Madam and Al Malahia on the mostly flat desert roads to Hatta where, before facing the finale, riders will face two climbs, the second with peaks of 11% and a fast and challenging downhill. There will be intermediate sprints at the 87.1km and 109.8km marks.

 

The final climb also featured in last year’s stage. It is 1.5 km-long, with a gradient of about 8%, peaking 11% in the final stretch, and with a demanding descent straight afterwards. The carriageway is quite wide and the road surface is excellent. The summit comes 11.5km from the finish and after the descent, there is another small 500m climb with a 9.1% average gradient. Then it’s slightly downhill before the riders hit flat roads with 7.5km to go.

 

The final 3 km are a continuous ascent, with some sharp bends leading to the final climb towards the Dam: a short, sharp rise of about 200 m, with gradients ranging from 12% to 17%. The first 100m have a gradient of around 8% but the final 100m are much steeper with gradients above 14%. The home stretch is 150 m-long, on 5 m-wide, asphalted roadway. The roads are mostly straight but there is a sharp turn at the bottom of the climb and then the road bends slightly to the left.

 

The decision to remove the late climbs makes this stage much easier and almost all the selection will be made on the final ramp. In 2014, the riders also tackled the late two climbs and even Marcel Kittel managed to survive. In the desert, the wind could play a role but it should be a rather big peloton that arrives for the sprint up the final ramp. It’s a narrow road and last year’s stage that positioning is more important than actual power. In the end, the riders with the best position and must punchy legs will battle it out while the sprinters hope to limit their losses sufficiently to stay in overall contention.

 

In 2014, the stage was won by Marcel Kittel who impressed most of his rivals by hanging onto the field over the climbs before he beat Juan Jose Lobato and Peter Sagan in the sprint. Last year it was another win for Giant-Alpecin as a very impressive John Degenkolb powered up the steep ramp and held off the Movistar pair of Alejandro Valverde and Juan Jose Lobato to move into the race lead.

 

 

 

Stage 4:

The sprinters will have been out of the spotlight for 24 hours but they should again get their chance to go for glory on the final stage which is known as the Business Bay stage. The riders will be back in the city for a traditional final stage that is almost identical. However, the finish has been changed and will no longer finish

in front of Burj Khalifa, the tallest skyscraper in the World at 830 metres. Instead, the riders will bring the race to a conclusion at the Business Bay very close to last year’s finale. Earlier in the stage, the riders will do a big loop in the city before they head back to the spectacular finish.

 

At 137km, the stage is a bit longer than last year and it will again start at the Dubai International Marine Club. It goes through the Old and New Town. It starts in the direction of the great Meydan Racecourse to reach and cross Mushrif Park and then move to the beaches of Al Mamzar. It then runs through Deira, Al Maktoum Bridge and the entire Old Town, almost to Port Rashid, and from there enters the big Jumeirah Road along the coast that leads past the large Union Flag. Then there’s a U-turn at the Burj-al-Arab to go back to Jumeirah Road and reach Business Bay which is the finishing point. There are intermediate sprints at the 78.3km and 102.3km marks.

 

10 km before the finish, the stage course diverts from Jumeirah road and heads towards the final bend, with 400m to the finish. The riders will do a U-turn in a roundabout just before the 4km to go mark and then there’s right-hand turn that leads onto a long road with a 600m long tunnel with a roof that has sections open to the sky. The road has a few sweeping bends as it passes the Burj Kahlifa and then there are sharp left-hand. turns with 900m and 300m to go

 

There will be virtually no elevation gains in this flat stage and as it takes place within the city, it is unlikely that the wind will make a difference. However, the GC is likely to be very close and with bonus seconds on offer in the intermediate sprints and at the finish, we could be in for a pretty interesting battle for the overall win. In the end, it will be very hard to avoid a big bunch sprint but the overall win could be up for grabs right until the end.

 

Marcel Kittel confirmed his dominance of the race by winning this stage in 2014, making it three in a row in the Dubai sprints. Last year Mark Cavendish took the leader’s jersey off John Degenkolb’s shoulders by beating Elia Viviani and Juan Jose Lobato in a bunch sprint.

 

  

The weather

One of the main reasons for doing the Dubai Tour is the good weather that the riders expect to find in the Middle East. They are unlikely to be disappointed as the forecast currently shows that they will find near-perfect conditions for bike racing. Every day will offer bright sunshine and temperatures between 22 and 25 degrees.

 

One of the potential key factors in the race is the wind which has not played a major role in any of the previous editions of the race. It’s unlikely to be a major issue on Wednesday, Friday and Saturday but Thursday is forecasted to be pretty windy. Most of that stage will take place in the city where the roads are less exposed but we could be in for a dramatic finale when the riders the Palm Jumeirah island in the finale.

 

 

The favourites

With a mostly flat route and no chance for the climbers to make a difference, the inuagural Dubai Tour was decided by the opening time trial. Last year the dynamics changed significantly and it came down to a close battle between the puncheurs who excelled in stage 3 and the sprinters who tried to pick up bonus seconds in the three sprint stages.

 

This year the race is very similar to last year’s race and it will again be decided by three elements. First of all the uphill finish in stage 3 will have a massive impact as it will be the best chance to create a selection. The finale will be too tough for the sprinters and instead the puncheurs should come to the fore. A 200m climb, however, will never create big time differences and several riders will probably still be close to the lead at the end of stage 3.

 

While the uphill sprint in stage 3 will be the most important factor in deciding the race, two other factors will also come into play. First of all, the bonus seconds will have an impact and we could see some of the puncheurs go for the intermediate sprints along the way. Furthermore, the sprinters should not be too far off the mark in stage 3 and if they can pick up bonifications in the flat stages, they will have a big chance to win the race overall. Finally, the wind can wreak havoc on the peloton and so any contender either needs a bit of help from the weather gods or a strong team that can help him to make the selection if it’s windy.

 

In the first year the race had very unusual rules for bonus seconds, with only 3, 2 and 1 seconds awarded for the three best riders in each stage and 1 second for the first rider across the line at the intermediate sprints. Last year the organizers introduced the well-known rules of handing out 10, 6 and 4 seconds for the first three riders at the finish and 3, 2 and 1 seconds for the best at the intermediate sprints. This means that the bonus seconds will play a crucial role and with a late intermediate sprint in stages 1 and 4 we could see the bonifications along the route also play a role.

 

There is one big change compared to last year: stage 3 is a lot easier. In 2015, the main differences were not made on the final climb as most of the sprinters lost contact on the much harder ascents earlier in the stage. At one point, Cavendish fell behind but his team rallied around him and brought him back to the front where he limited his losses on the final ramp. This year there are only a few rolling hills before the uphill sprint and while it may be enough to challenge the heaviest sprinters, most of the fast guys will be there at the bottom of the final climb.

 

Already last year the race was won by a sprinter and the easier course will make that even more likely in 2015. Of course the bonus seconds cannot be spread around too much but if one or two sprinters can finish in the top 3 in the three sprint stages, they have a big chance to hold onto the overall lead. Last year Cavendish only lost 10 seconds on Hatta Dam and this year he and his fellow sprinters will arrive fresher for the finale.

 

The race will be dominated by two strong sprinters who both go into the race with very strong lead-outs. It will be the first big clash between Mark Cavendish and Marcel Kittel and with relatively easy courses for three of the stages, we should get at least three battles between those two riders. There is a very strong field of sprinters in Dubai but with Kittel being supported by an excellent train and Cavendish having his usual solid support as well as being great at positioning himself, we can expect them to finish in the top 3 in stages 1, 2 and 4 unless they mess up the lead-out on once or more occasions.

 

In 2014, Marcel Kittel won three stages in this race and he proved that he could survive the late climbs in stage 3. Back then there was no uphill finish but at least he showed that he will be there at the bottom of the final ramp if he has the same kind of form. If he has the sprinting legs he had back then, he will naturally be one of the overwhelming favourites.

 

It all depends on how Kittel is feeling after his disastrous 2015 season. He is no longer ill and he seems to be fired up after joining his new team. It seems like he has had a pretty good winter and should be in good form right from the start of the year. Of course one year without any real racing will have an impact on him but the courses in Dubai are so easy that we don’t expect it to be a major issue.

 

For him to be an overall contender, Kittel needs to be winning most of the sprints as he one of the poorest climbers among the sprinters. However, he has proved that he is clearly the fastest rider in the world and when he briefly showed form at last year’s Tour de Pologne, he didn’t seem to have lost any bit of his speed. The main challenge for Kittel will be to get into a good position for the sprints as he is working with a new lead-pout train.

 

However, Etixx-QuickStep have by far the strongest train in this race and riders like Tony Martin, Nikolas Maes, Matteo Trentin and Fabio Sabatini form a very good lead-out. Apart from Kittel, they have all worked together in the past which will make it easier to make things work right from the start. They probably miss the final lead-out man to match Mark Renshaw’s speed but at least they should make sure that Kittel will start his sprint from a good position and then it will be up to the German’s speed to deliver the wins.

 

We expect Kittel to win most of the sprint stages and that will give him a solid advantage over the puncheurs while he will also gain seconds on Cavendish. He will lose time on Hatta Dam but with a strong team to make sure that he will be near the front at the bottom of the climb he should be able to limit his losses sufficiently. Hence, Kittel is our favourite to win the race.

 

His biggest rival in the sprints and for the overall will probably be Mark Cavendish. The Brit won this race in 2015 when he climbed really well but he doesn’t seem to have the same kind of form this time around. He has been focused on the track and is probably not climbing as well as he did last year. Hence, it was no surprise that he abandoned his first race, the Cadel Evans Great Ocean Road Race.

 

However, Cavendish is a better climber than Kittel and he has done plenty of road training in Australia. With an easier queen stage, he should again be able to limit his losses at Hatta Dam and he is even likely to gain some second on Kittel. Then it will all come down to his competitiveness in the sprints.

 

It will be Cavendish’s first time with the Dimension Data lead-out train of Matt Brammeier, Bernhard Eisel and Mark Renshaw but they have all worked together in the past. They don’t have the firepower of Etixx-QuickStep but they probably have more speed and Renshaw is one of the best lead-out men in the world. There is a solid chance that he will be able to deliver Cavendish in the perfect position and then the Brit is usually hard to beat. If he can do well in all three sprint stages and beat Kittel in at least a couple of them, he has a big chance to defend last year’s win.

 

Juan Jose Lobato was third in last year’s race after having finished second behind Degenkolb on Hatta Dam. In general, the Spaniard was flying at start of the year as he also picked up wins at the Tour Down Under and the Vuelta a Andalucia, proving to be probably the best uphill sprinter in the world. Since then, he has been far from that level though and he was not very good at the Tour Down Under.

 

There is no doubt that Lobato has the speed to win at Hatta Dam but his positioning is terrible. He rarely gets to show his speed and the Hatta Dam sprint is more about positioning than actual sprinting. He is likely to have missed his chance already before they hit the wall and if so he will not be an overall contender. However, if he gets things right, he will be one of the big favourites for the stage win. As he can also pick up bonus seconds in the flat stages, he is an obvious threat for Cavendish and Kittel.

 

Last year Fabian Cancellara decided to skip this race but he is back as he embarks on his final pro season. Apparently, the Swiss is extremely motivated right from the start as he showed much better form than usual at the Challenge Mallorca. Usually, the Trofeo Serra de Tramuntana is too hard for him but this year he took a very impressive solo win in the toughest race of the series. He was unable to follow the best on the climbs but used his descending and TT skills to ride away from the rest.

 

Cancellara is obviously in great form and this race suits him pretty well. Of course he won’t be up there in the bunch sprints but he will be among the favourites on the Hatta Dam. He is fast in this kind of uphill sprint and there is no doubt that he will get the positioning right. If he can win stage 3 and no single sprinter picks up lots of bonus seconds, he can win this race overall.

 

The same goes for Philippe Gilbert who was sixth at Hatta Dam last year. The Belgian has done nothing to hide his GC ambitions and he is usually pretty strong at this time of the year. The uphill sprint on Hatta Dam suits him down to the ground even though he would probably have preferred the climb to be slightly longer. Furthermore, he is great at positioning himself and his BMC team will be ready to go for intermediate sprints and grab an opportunity in the crosswinds. Gilert won’t be a contender in the bunch sprints but if he can win at Hatta Dam, the overall win is within reach.

 

Sky go into the race with Elia Viviani who won a stage here in 2015. Back then, the queen stage was too hard for him but this year he should be able to limit his losses much better. Unlike Kittel and Cavendish, he already has a stage race in his legs where he showed solid form and it was only an impressive Jakub Mareczko that prevented him from winning the final stage. At the time, he is gearing up for the Track World Championships and so has the speed to do well here.

 

To win the race, he has to beat Cavendish and Kittel in the sprints and he has proved that he has the speed to at least beat the Brit. The Sky train has plenty of speed and did really well here in 2015. This time they miss Eisel but Andrew Fenn and Ben Swift will be able to do well. On paper, he climbs better than both Cavendish and Kittel and if he can get a few top 3 finishes in the sprints, he can win the race overall.

 

Cancellara is not the only Trek option as the American team also have Giacomo Nizzolo here. Among the top sprinters here, he is the best climber and he showed good form in the Tour Down Under where he survived the tough climbing in stage 4 and was up there in the sprint finishes. He is supported by one of the best trains in the race but doesn’t have the speed of Viviani, Cavendish and Kittel. However, a few good sprints and better climbing legs could set him up for overall victory.

 

While Sky will go for Viviani in the sprints, Ben Swift will be their man for Hatta Dam. Last year the Brit was taken out by a puncture and he will be eager to get his revenge. He has showed decent form in Australia and this kind of uphill sprint suits him pretty well. He and Lobato are the only sprinters that can be in contention for victory on the queen stage. If he can win that stage and take the overall lead, Sky will turn his attention to him in the final sprint stage where he will get a chance to defend his lead.

 

Another specialist in uphill sprints is Simone Ponzi. The Italian is making his CCC debut in this race and when he last joined a new team, he came out with all guns blazing. He had a mediocre 2015 season so it remains to be seen if he can rediscover those legs but if he can, he will be one of the favourites for the queen stage.

 

Movistar will have more cards to play than Lobato. Giovanni Visconti and Gorka Izagirre can both do well in uphill sprints and they will be allowed to take their chances. Both did the races in Mallorca where they showed decent form. They are better at positioning themselves than Lobato even though Visconti often has a relatively lazy approach. The Italian is faster than his Spanish teammate but Izagirre’s third place in last year’s Tour Down Under proves his skills in such a finish.

 

Astana will go for Andrea Guardini in the sprints but there is little chance that he will be able to limit his losses in stage 3 to be an overall contender. Instead, Lars Boom and Lieuwe Westra will go for GC and both are suited to the uphill sprint in Hatta Dam. Westra claims to be in excellent form but never got the chance to show it at the Tour Down Under where he hit the ground. Boom has been doing some cyclo-cross and did a good World Chmapionships which proves that the form is good. Westra is the better climber but also has a decent punch while Boom is the faster of the pair. They probably lack the speed to win on Hatta Dam but with good form they can’t be ruled out.

 

Lampre-Merida have Sacha Modolo for the sprints. The Italian is usually in very good form at the start of the year and he is a pretty good climber too. Last year he achieved amazing results in the sprints but it will be hard for him to repeat that kind of performance in 2016 as he no longer has Maximiliano Richeze at his side. Many of his wins were more based on lead-outs than actual speed and he will probably have to target some of the harder sprints. However, he still has Roberto Ferrari for the lead-out and if he has his best form, he could pick up enough bonus seconds to win the race by climbing well in the queen stage.

 

***** Marcel Kittel

**** Mark Cavendish, Juan Jose Lobato,

*** Fabian Cancellara, Philippe Gilbert, Elia Viviani, Giacomo Nizzolo

** Ben Swift, Simone Ponzi, Sacha Modolo, Lars Boom, Lieuwe Westra, Giovanni Visconti, Gorka Izagirre

* Andrea Palini, Owain Doull, Matteo Trentin, Rui Costa, Lars Petter Nordhaug