Alexander Kristoff proved that he can’t be written off as a Flanders contender yet by claiming a very impressive stage win in what was a very hard opening stage and he has now won the last four road stages in the Belgian race. He will try to make it five in a row in tomorrow’s second stage which has traditionally been one for the sprinters but a strong crosswind in the finale is expected to wreak havoc on the peloton.

 

The course

The second stage usually brings the riders from a start in either Oudenaarde or Zottegem in the Flemish Ardennes back to the coast and a finish in Koksijde, the neighbouring city of De Panne. This stage is usually the longest of the race, with its 210-220km making it great classics preparation.

 

At 211.1km, this year's stage will be a bit shorter than last year’s and it follows the well-known formula. In 2016, the point of departure will be Tuesday's finishing city of Zottegem and from there the riders head straight west as they start their journey back to the sea. They avoid all the climbs in this hilly area and pass south of Oudenaarde to leave the Flemish Ardennes.

 

From there, the riders continue in the same direction along flat roads as they pass Kortrijk and Wevelgem to reach Ieper after 75km of racing. From here they continue in a southerly direction as they head towards the French-Belgian border and the climbs that are known from Gent-Wevelgem.

 

Having reached the hilly area, they zigzag their way to go up all the important ascents. First up is the Mesenberg (1100m, 3.2%, max. 8%) 113.6km from the finish. It is followed by the Monteberg (1000m, 7.3%, max. 13%) which comes 99.6km from the line and afterwards the riders go straight up the feared Kemmelberg (700m, 7.8%, max. 17.0%). 5.4km later it is time for the Rodeberg (1700m, 4.8%, max. 13.0%) while the climbing comes to an end with the Vidaigneberg (175m, 4.6%, max. 10%) whose top is located 91.3km from the finish.

 

The riders now follow the border in a northerly direction as they head along flat roads towards the sea. They will cross the finish line for the first time after 177.5km of racing, contesting the first intermediate sprint here.

 

The stage ends with 3 laps of a modified 11.2km almost rectangular finishing circuit that brings the riders along the coast from Koksijde to Oostduinkerke before travelling back along another road. Last year, the organizers have added some extra turns in the city centre and moved the finish to this technical part of the course which made the sprint a lot more technical. This year things are a lot more straightforward as the finish has been moved from the city centre to the road that leads the peloton out of Oostduinkerke. Now the penultimate turn comes more than 5km from the finish and the final right-hand turn comes with 2km to go. From there, it is a straight, slightly descending road to the finish.

 

Compared to last year's stage, this one is slightly shorter. The first part has some minor changes but the hilly zone and the distance from the climbs to the finish are unchanged. The main change is the modifications to the finishing circuit which will make it a much more straightforward sprint.

 

The climbs are located too far from the finish to make much difference and even though some riders may stretch their legs on the Kemmelberg, there's rarely too much action on the climbs. The stage usually pans out as a traditional sprint stage unless the wind wreaks havoc on the peloton.

 

This happened in 2010 when Sebastien Turgot won on a very rainy day and in 2014 the combination of wind and climbs made the group split in the hilly zone. 32 riders made up the first group and they managed to stay clear, with Sacha Modolo beating Arnaud Demare and Alexander Kristoff in the sprint. The 2011, 2012 and 2013 editions all ended in big bunch sprints, with Denis Galimzyanov, Marcel Kittel and Mark Cavendish taking the wins, and it was the same last year when Alexander Kristoff won the stage.

 

 

 

 

The weather

The windy conditions made for some fast and aggressive racing and we can expect more of the same tomorrow. It may be raining in the morning but on a cloudy day, things are likely to be dry for the race. The maximum temperature will again be 11 degrees.

 

Most importantly there will be a strong wind from a westerly direction. This means that the riders will have a headwind in the first part of the stage until they reach the end of the hilly zone. Here they will turn into a crosswind which will lead them to the circuit where it will mostly be a tail- or aheadwind. It will be a tailwind in the finale until the riders take the final turn with 2km to go. From there it will be a crosswind.

 

The favourites

After today’s great performance, Alexander Kristoff proved that it is still too early to write him off as a Tour of Flanders contender. The Norwegian was feeling great in Sanremo, claiming that he had his best ever feeling on the Poggio. It seems that his poor showing in Harelbeke was really just a consequence of his illness and the good form he had in Italy hasn’t disappeared yet. From now on, we can expect him to only get better and better and a solid week of racing in De Panne will certainly serve him well like it did 12 months ago. He claims to have been feeling bad all day but he can’t be very far off the mark.

 

At the same time, it was another embarrassing performance of Etixx-QuickStep. Several teams missed the big group but it’s a disaster for the biggest Belgian to again be forced into chase mode in one of their biggest home races. In fact, it’s a bit of a mystery how Tony Martin failed to join the group. The German looked impressively strong on the climbs and was up there in the first intermediate sprint. However, it’s now too late for him to win the race. The team may try to split things in the crosswinds tomorrow but it will be virtually impossible to get rid of a very strong Lieuwe Westra and Kristoff who is one of the strongest in the windy conditions.

 

The race now seems to be whittled down to a three-rider battle. Alexey Lutsenko is actually a very good time triallist but he is not at Westra’s level. The Dutchman was by far the strongest rider in today’s race and will be very hard to beat in this race. It is hard to imagine Lutsenko come away with the victory as he is unlikely to beat his teammate in the TT. Kristoff did the time trial of his life twelve months ago and if he can repeat that performance, he has a chance. However, with his “bad legs”, he claims that it is unlikely to happen so he now needs to build a solid buffer of bonus seconds. It was a bit of a surprise that he didn’t go for the intermediate sprints in today’s stage but that was probably because of his bad feelings. On the other hand, he was lucky that Lutsenko beat his captain in the sprint for second which cost Westra two important seconds.

 

Kristoff will get his first chance to pick up those important seconds in tomorrow’s stage which is always the longest of the race and follows the classic formula. It has two potential scenarios: either it’s a straightforward sprint stage or it’s a big crosswinds battle. This year it seems that we will get a great race as the weather forecast looks terrible for the riders.

 

With a strong headwind in the first half of the race, we can expect things to be completely different from today. The break will probably escape straight from the gun and get a big advantage while Katusha and maybe Etixx-QuickStep set a steady pace in the peloton. Things will get hectic by the time we get to the hilly zone and the narrow roads where the fight for position will intensify. While the first climbs won’t do much damage, we can expect things to split on the Kemmelberg where the best riders usually test their legs.

 

Etixx-QuickStep are out of the battle for the overall win so their goal is to win the stage with Marcel Kittel. Hence, they will have a defensive approach to the climb but Astana will probably try to do some damage with Westra and a very strong Lars Boom. Of course it’s way too early to go all the way to the finish but it will put some riders on the back foot and create some splits before we turn into the crosswinds.

 

Kemmelberg comes with 97.8km to go and the key turn comes just after the city of Loker when the riders hit the Rodeberg and the Vidaigneberg with 92.4kmto go. That’s where the riders will turn into a crosswind and from there, all hell will break loose.  With such a strong crosswind coming right after the Kemmelberg, it is very hard to imagine that the race won’t be split to pieces and we definitely won’t have a full peloton sprinting for the win in Koksijde. From this point, it will probably be a big pursuit all the way to the finish and this will spell the end for the early break. The roads on the circuit will be less exposed which makes it more likely that some of the groups will merge in the finale and we can expect the survivors to sprint for the win in the coastal city.

 

The key to the stage is what will happen to Marcel Kittel on the Kemmelberg. The German looked very strong in today’s stage and seems to be in great condition. However, there is no doubt that he will lose some ground on the steep ascent. He is very strong when it comes to riding in the crosswind but that won’t help him much if he is already too far back at the top of the climb. If that’s the case, he will find himself in the second or third echelon when we turn into the crosswinds and then Etixx-QuickStep will again be on the defensive.

 

As opposed to this, Alexander Kristoff is very likely to be ahead and Katusha will go all in, trying to keep Kittel at bay. Everyone will be fighting hard in the windy conditions and it will probably be another day of Etixx-QuickStep chasing hard in the finale.  If this scenario unfolds, it will be interesting to see what Tony Martin will do. He will be strong enough to stay ahead and defend his good position in the GC. On the other hand, his engine will be valuable when it comes to bringing Kittel back into contention. The outcome of the stage could very well hinge on Martin’s approach to the stage.

 

In the end, it will come down to a sprint and we doubt that Kittel will be there. Etixx-QuickStep don’t have their best team here and they are not as strong as Katusha unless Martin drops back. With Astana and Katusha all working hard in a first group after the Kemmelberg, it will be hard to bring Kittel back into contention and if he gets there, he will be tired. Furthermore, it will cost his lead-out men Sabatini and Richeze lots of energy.

 

With Kittel unlikely to make it back and probably very tired at the finish, Alexander Kristoff is our favourite to win the stage. The Norwegian is not as fast as Kittel and André Greipel in a flat sprint but at the end of a hard race, things are different. Kristoff only gets stronger and stronger when other start to tire and tomorrow’s stage will be a tough one. Furthermore, Kristoff will probably be the fastest in the group if Kittel fails to make it back.

 

The sprint is a real power sprint as it’s a very long finishing straight and this suits Kristoff very well. Furthermore, he is surrounded by his formidable train of Kuznetsov, Mørkøv, Haller and Gaurnieri which dominated the sprints in the Middle East and the trio of Haller, Guarnieri and Kristoff dominated the sprints at last year’s Tour. Etixx are here with a strong train too but if they have been in chase mode, we doubt that they have the firepower to match Katusha. If he gets a perfect lead-out at the end of a hard race, Kristoff is likely to win the stage.

 

His big rival will be Marcel Kittel. The German is the fastest rider in the world and is back at his best level after last year’s nightmare. He has been winning sprints by several bike lengths and the Etixx-QuickStep train has worked flawlessly. The only failure came at Paris-Nice where neither the team nor Kittel looked strong.

 

Things seem to have turned around now. Kittel was very strong in today’s stage and did a huge job for Martin very late in the stage. When he is at 100%, he actually climbs decently and with his current form, he may be able to survive the Kemmelberg or get back to the front with some assistance from his team. There is little doubt that he will be in a very good position at the start of the climb and with a solid performance on the ascent he won’t lose too much ground. If he gets back for the sprint, he will be a big contender. The power sprint suits him down to the ground and Etixx train of Sabatini-Richeze-Kittel is very strong. However, the hard stage may have taken its toll, especially on Richeze who is just coming back from injury, and Kittel. It will be hard for them to go up against Katusha and Kittel may not have his usual speed at the end of a hard race. In a normal sprint, Kittel would have been the big favourite but now it will be a lot closer.

 

André Greipel is returning from injury and even though he claimed to be in good condition, Gent-Wevelgem and stage 1 have proved that he is not at his best yet. Today he was in the first group at the start of the race but he simply lacks the form to be a contender in a long, hard race. That will make it much more difficult for him to win tomorrow’s stage as it is likely to be a very tough day.

 

Usually, Greipel is very strong in this terrain and he should actually benefit from a tough day in the saddle. Now things are different and he is unlikely to be there in the end. Furthermore, he only has Marcel Sieberg there from his usual lead-out train so it will be difficult to go up against Katusha and Etixx-QuickStep. Greipel is only an outsider in this race but you can never rule out the sprinter who dominated 2016.

 

Sacha Modolo has never really done well on the cobbles but he seems to be getting stronger. He was up there for a long time in Gent-Wevelgem and today he was very strong in the finale. He doesn’t have a very strong team at his side but he is clearly in great form and has a solid chance of making it into the group that sprints for the win. Usually, he is not as fast as Kristoff, Kittel and Greipel and it’s a big blow to have lost Richeze. However, Roberto Ferrari is a capable lead-out man and Modolo usually has a better chance at the end of a hard race. He has won this stage in the past and would love to repeat that performance.

 

On paper, Elia Viviani is one of the fastest riders here but it won’t be easy for him to survive what is likely to be a very tough day. On the other hand, he was actually up there when things split on the Oude Kwaremont in last year’s Kuurne-Brussels-Kuurne so if he is in a good position at the bottom of the Kemmelberg, he will have a chance. He is supported by one of the strongest teams and if he is there at the end, he has the speed to win a sprint.

 

If Viviani fails, Danny Van Poppel will be ready to step in. The Dutchman is just coming back from injury but it hasn’t really been reflected in his performances. He has been riding strongly ever since his debut at Nokere Koerse and today he was up there in the group that decided the race. In general, he is emerging as a real classics contender and he will only get stronger and stronger. In last year’s Vuelta, he proved that he is also getting faster. We expect him to survive the crosswinds tomorrow and go for the sprint ifhis Italian teammate has been distanced.

 

Luka Mezgec has never really done the cobbled classics before but this year he is giving them a try. He rode really well in Gent-Wevelgem where he made it to the finish with the group that sprinted for fifth. Today he came up short but he will be keen to try to make up for that in tomorrow’s stage. Orica-GreenEDGE don’t have the best team here and he may not start the Kemmelberg in the best position but he is stronger than most of the sprinters. Most of his wins have come in reduced bunch sprints and he will try to go for it tomorrow even though he will be up against faster riders.

 

Manuel Belletti has had a slow start to the year but now he is finding his legs. The Italian won the first stage at Coppi e Bartali and today he won the sprint for seventh. He has never really excelled in the cobbled races but today he was up there. Furthermore, he is much stronger than the pure sprinters so he should benefit from what will be a tough race.

 

Today’s stage was a bit of a breakthrough for Mads Pedersen who rode to fourth two days after his win in the U23 Gent-Wevelgem. He is not a pure sprinter but has a decent turn of speed. Today he proved that he is one of the strongest riders in the race so he should make the selection. He has usually had a hard time in the bunch sprints at the pro level but at the end of a hard race he should be able to do a lot better.

 

Amaury Capiot and Bert Van Lerberghe form a very strong Topsport Vlaanderen duo. They have been very good in all the cobbled races and have proved that they are much more than sprinters. Tomorrow they should again make the selection and then they will be among the fastest survivors.

 

Finally, we will point to Andrea Guardini. We don’t expect the Italian to survive what is likely to be a very hard stage and so he is unlikely to win. However, he is still one of the select few who can actually win in such a competitive field. He is getting stronger and stronger and with three less exposed laps in the end, there is time for a regrouping to take place. This could bring Guardini back in the mix.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Alexander Kristoff

Other winner candidates: Marcel Kittel, André Greipel

Outsiders: Sacha Modolo, Elia Viviani, Danny Van Poppel

Jokers: Luka Mezgec, Manuel Belletti, Mads Pedersen, Amaury Capiot, Bert Van Lerberghe, Andrea Guardini