While the climbers battle it out on the Spanish climbs, the classics specialists have started a very busy schedule of autumn classics. The sprinters were in the spotlight when things kicked off in the EuroEyes Cyclassics but they will have a harder time in Sunday's Bretagne Classic-Ouest France which continues the series of one-day races. Held on a tough circuit in Bretagne, the race invites to aggression and often develops into a fierce battle between the teams of the strongest sprinters and the punchy attackers but this year a new course adds uncertainty to one of France’s biggest one-day race.
Paris-Roubaix may gain most of the attention as the biggest French one-day race but the big country actually has another single-day event on the WorldTour calendar. Held concurrently with the Vuelta a Espana, the Bretagne Classic-Ouest France is often overshadowed by the Spanish grand tour but the Breton race is an exciting event that fits perfectly into the schedule of autumn classics that all favour a certain type of riders.
The race originates all the way back to 1931 and has been an annual event ever since, only interrupted by a short break during World War II. For many years, it was dominated by French riders and failed to gain much attention from the international peloton. Italian Ugo Anzile won the 1954 edition but the race wasn't taken by another foreigner until Dutchman Frits Pirard triumphed 25 years later.
However, held in the cycling-mad Bretagne, the race has always gained plenty of national interest and been a real celebration of cycling. As the biggest race in the region, it has attracted large audiences and during the 90s, up to 300.000 spectators were spread out on the 27km circuit that was the setting of the race. During the 80s and 90s, the race gradually attracted a more international line-up and the French domination has completely disappeared.
The major breakthrough came when the race was a surprise inclusion on the ProTour calendar at the introduction of the race series in 2005. Besides well-established classics Fleche Wallonne and Gent-Wevelgem, the Breton race was the only one-day event to get onto the finest calendar without having been part of the now defunct World Cup series.
The race has since kept its position among the world's elite races but has faced an uphill battle during the tough economic times. Repeatedly, the future of the event has come under threat but until now, a solution has always been found. For now, the problems have been solved and nowadays the race forms part of 5-day cycling festival that also includes BMX and amateur races and a women's WorldTour event held on a course similar to the men's race.
The race may not be as esteemed as the major spring classics but at a time when the importance of WorldTour points cannot be underestimated, the race is a real target for most of the teams. The race fits perfectly into the calendar of autumn races suited to sprinters and puncheurs which kicked off with the EuroEyes Cyclassics and continues with the Brussels Cycling Classic and the GP Fourmies next weekend and numerous French and Belgian one-day races later in September.
The race has traditionally been a circuit race held a hilly 27km course around Plouay which was also used for the 2000 world championships won by Romans Vainsteins. The climbs in themselves are not overly difficult but the constant ups and downs over the long course have turned it into a race of attrition that has mostly been won by some of the strongest escape artists in the business. In recent years, Vincenzo Nibali (2006), Thomas Voeckler (2007), Pierrick Fedrigo (2008), Simon Gerrans (2009), Edvald Boasson Hagen (2012) and Sylvain Chavanel (2014) have all won from breakaways but the toughest sprinters have also had their say as it is evidenced by Matthew Goss' (2010), Grega Bole's (2011), Filippo Pozzato’s (2013) and Alexander Kristoff’s sprint wins. The unpredictable race is usually highly aggressive with numerous attacks being launched on the many climbs while the sprint teams try to keep it together for a sprint from a small peloton.
The tough nature of the course also gives it a perfect position on the WorldTour calendar. The EuroEyes Cyclassics is a race for sprinters and kicks off the series of WorldTour one-day races. The Bretagne Classic suits both strong sprinters and classics specialists who can make a difference on the many climbs. In that sense, it is a perfect transition to the Canadian WorldTour races whose heavy courses turn them into races for climbers and Ardennes specialists. The WorldTour races gradually get tougher and tougher and make for a perfect build-up for the Worlds for the riders that have skipped the Vuelta.
While serving as a race with important WorldTour points on offer, the race may play its most important role as a preparation event for the World Championships. Due to its long distance and circuit format, it has traditionally comparable with a traditional Worlds road race and even though the tactics are vastly different in those two races, it is one of the best warm-up events for the battle for the rainbow jersey. With the Canadian WorldTour races also offering a tough circuit format, there’s a really solid block of one-day racing for riders preparing for one of the biggest races of the year. With the Worlds in Qatar set to suit the sprinters, many of the fast finishers will use it as a key preparation and test of their ability to handle a long race, preferring it instead of the many climbs of the Spanish grand tour.
This year the race has been given a complete overhaul. Until now, everything has been centered in Plouay and the name has been GP Plouay-Ouest France. However, the organizers now want to highlight the entire region of Britanny and this has led to multiple changes. First of all, the race has been renamed Bretagne Classic-Ouest France but more importantly the circuit format has been abandoned. Now most of the race will be made up of a long trip through the region and the well-known circuit will only be tackled once in the finale. Overall the changes are not expected to alter the dynamics much but it adds a level of uncertainty to what has been a very well-known race.
Last year an in-form Alexander Kristoff finally got the win he had been searching for for a number of years when he powered to victory in a reduced bunch sprint. This time the late attacks failed to make it to the finish and the Norwegian beat Simone Ponzi and Ramunas Navardauskas when a small group battled it out for overall honours. This year the Norwegian will be back to defend his title and he will again be up against Ramunas Navardauskas. However, there will be no Ponzi as the Italian is continuing his slow comeback following a second broken collarbone.
Alongside the newly-established Canadian races, Bretagne Classic has traditionally been the only WorldTour races with the circuit format that is mostly known from the World Championships and a number of smaller races and this unique nature turns it into the perfect preparation race for the World Championships. However, the new format will change the race completely. Instead of doing a number of laps on the well-known 26.9km and 13.9km circuits, the riders will spend most of the day on a long trip that highlights the beauty of Brittany before they return to Plouay for one lap of the small circuit that has always decided the race. At the same time, the organizers have made the race longer than usual and this year the riders will cover a massive 247km, making the race comparable to the biggest classics.
The new course doesn’t change the lumpy terrain much but the modifications can still make a difference. There will be longer climbs than usual but there are also longer sections of flat roads with no real ascents. The climbs come in a quicker succession near the end but overall it may be harder to find spots to launch the right attacks. However, as the race ends with the well-known circuit, the final 13.9km are identical to what we know from the past.
The race both starts and finishes in Plouay and from here the riders will tackle a big 235km on the northern outskirts of the city. It will see the riders travel through the typical Breton terrain as there aren’t many flat roads on the lumpy course and the riders will tackle a total of seven climbs before they will get to the finish for the first time.
The first 30km are almost all slightly uphill and culminate at the top of the St. Tugdual climb (3km, 3.5%). It will be the perfect place to ride aggressively and in this race it is always a big battle to join the break. Hence, we can expect a fast pace here until a group has been formed and the race will set into a rhythm.
The next part of the circuit is rolling and only includes two categorized climbs, Carnoet (2.6km, 3%) after 75km of racing and Locmarlaberrlen-huelgoat (7km, 2.4%) after around 115km of racing. This part is unlikely to play much of a role and will mainly serve to accumulate fatigues.
The way back to Plouay is significantly harder and this is where the finale is expected to start. It is likely to kick off on the hardest climb of the day, Cote de Trevarez (4km, 4.2%) after 170km of racing. It is followed by Le Helles-St Julienne (4.2km, 3.3%) at the 190km mark. Traditionally this phase has been very aggressive with numerous attacks and the groups that have gone clear at this point have usually come very far. We expect it to be more of the same on the new course and so we can expect some interesting moves to be formed on these climbs.
The terrain gets a bit easier after the fifth climb but as the riders approach Plouay, the circuit ends with two short steep climbs. After 225km of racing, the riders will tackle the Cote de Marta (2.4km, 5%) before they get to the Ty Marrec (800m, 6%, max. 10%) which has always been the key climb of the race. These two climbs form are the perfect springboard for attacks as they come inside the final 30km and this is the place to move for riders that want to anticipate the finale and for some of the strong teams to put the sprinters under pressure.
Afte Ty Marrec, the riders will descend to the finish and then end the race by doing one lap of the well-known 13.9km circuit that has always been the scene of the final battle. The riders head along flat roads until they get to the first climb, Cote du Lezot, which has a length of a little more than a kilometre and has several places with a 7% gradient. The top is located at the 2.5km mark and from there, the riders tackle a long, gradual descent as they leave the city to continue in a northerly direction.
At the 7km mark, the riders reach the bottom of the descent and the riders will turn around and head back towards Plouay. The first 2km are mostly flat and then it's time for the circuit's toughest climb, Ty Marrec which will be tackled for a second time. What makes the climb more difficult is the fact that the road still rises slightly for another kilometre when the top of the climb has officially been reached. The next two kilometres are slightly up and down and lead to the flamme rouge from where it's all slightly downhill to the high-speed finish on the outskirts of Plouay. There are two tricky turns to negotiate around 1.5km from the finish but the final kilometre follows a long, straight road.
The final lap has traditionally been a festival of attacks and it is likely to be the same this time around. It takes a dedicated effort from the teams of the strongest sprinters to keep the many strong climbers in check. Some of the favourites prefer to wait for the final climb but many of the classics riders will try their hand earlier, meaning that a new group is usually formed inside the final 50km.
Finally, a strong group is likely to go clear on the final lap and from there, the race usually develops into an exciting pursuit between the peloton and the escapees and an elimination race as riders constantly drop off. The most obvious launch pads for attacks are of course the two climbs and the steep Ty Marrec has often been where the decisive break has gone clear. However, the sections after the top of the climbs both offer similarly good options as there is no immediate descent and so the peloton often slows down to catch its breath. With everybody being at their limit, it may be a good idea to save some energy for an attack just after the top where the attackers can gain some ground before the chase gets organized.
Very often the break is caught before the final passage of Ty Marrec and then the best puncheurs make their move here. Traditionally a small group has gone clear over the top and then it has come down to an exciting pursuit where the break has either stayed away or been caught inside the final 2km. It is usually a highly unorganized sprint, should it all be brought back together for a final kick to the line and there are rarely any real lead-out trains.
Northern France has had very hot conditions recently but the riders won’t have to deal with the extreme heat of the Tour du Poitou-Charentes. Sunday is forecasted to be sunny with a bit of clouds, mainly in the early afternoon where there is a 30% chance of a shower. The maximum temperature will be 23 degrees.
The key factor will be the wins as Sunday will be windy. There will be a strong wind from a southwesterly direction which means that there will be cross-tailwind in the first part of the big circuit and then a direct crosswind in the second half after a short cross-headwind section. On the final circuit, there will be a crosswind almost all the time, with a bit of headwind after the top of the first climb and at the turning point and a tailwind on the first climb.
During the first years with a status as top level race, the GP Ouest France - Plouay was mostly decided by strong breakaways who narrowly held off the peloton in the finale. In recent years, the race has leaned more towards the strong sprinters and the 2013 and 2015 editions were a prime example of how difficult it can be to escape the peloton’s clutches.
However, that race also underlined which sprinters have a chance in this race. In 2013 Giacomo Nizzolo and Daniele Bennati were the only riders in the top 5 who regularly feature in the bunch sprints and both are known as pretty strong climbers too. Instead, classics rider Filippo Pozzato, Samuel Dumoulin and Jurgen Roelandts beat riders who are usually a lot faster. Last year Alexander Kristoff won but Simone Ponzi and Ramunas Navardauskas were both on the podium and riders like Grega Bole, Roelandts, Anthony Roux, Armindo Fonseca, Rasmus Guldhammer, Magnus Cort and even Wout Poels were in the top 10. Even though the sprint is a high-speed one of slightly descending roads, the tough nature of the course means that the fastest rider on paper is not always going to win.
This year the new course adds a whole new dynamic to the race in the last few years, everybody has known what to expect and where to make the moves. This year the riders will be much less familiar with the final part apart from the circuit which is unchanged. There has already been a lot of discussion about what impact it will have. Some have claimed that it will give the escapees a better chance while others are convinced that it will enhance the chance of a bunch sprint.
However, the change to the course made a different in last year’s race. The shorter distance between the final two climbs made it possible for a late break to stay clear as Katusha were unable to control the race for Alexander Kristoff. The Norwegian dutifully won the sprint for 8th which was again dominated by strong sprinters like the Norwegian, Nizzolo, Roelandts, Gianni Meersman, Borty Bozic and Francesco Gavazzi who are mostly more classics riders than real sprinters. Sprinters like Elia Viviani and Romain Feillu had made the selection but were unable to get into a good enough position to do the sprint.
In our opinion, it should favour the sprinters. There will still be several climbs in the finale but in general there will be less climbs inside the final 100km. Some of the climbs are longer and harder but they all come pretty early in the race and won’t make much of a difference. The real attacks have to be launched the final two times up Ty Marrec and history shows that it has always been touch and go whether a break can make it here. With fewer previous climbs in their legs, the sprint teams are likely to be fresher and they have a better chance to bring it back together.
The longer climbs earlier in the race provide some of the classics teams with a chance to make the race harder for the sprint teams by going on the offensive from the distance. However, the best puncheurs will all wait for the final two passages of Ty Marrec. Hence, we will probably have the usual scenario with a strong group going clear in the finale. It will probably be brought back before we get to the climb for the second time and that’s where the greatest puncheurs like Greg Van Avermaet, an in-form Rui Costa, Gianni Moscon, Tony Gallopin, Tim Wellens, Diego Ulissi will try to deny the sprinters.
In recent years, the fact that the race has been more suited to sprinters has had an impact on the tactics of the teams. Many have preferred to line up fast finishers and rode a pretty defensive race with the aim of getting a reduced bunch sprint. That was mainly evident in 2014 when most had some kind of fast finisher.
This year the fact that the Worlds are for sprinters means that the list of fast finishers is fantastic. Katusha, Giant-Alpecin, Cofidis, FDJ, Etixx-QuickStep Direct Energie and Trek are all here with the sole purpose of having a sprint finish. Other teams like BMC, Astana, Movistar and Lampre-Merida want the race to be hard while Sky, Tinkoff and Orica-BikeExchange have different options. However, with so many teams wanting a sprint finish, it will be very hard for a late break to make it.
At the same time, Peter Sagan’s presence enhances the chances of a sprint finish. The Slovakian again faces the difficult choice of whether to go for the sprint or follow the late attacks. He is likely to opt for the latter and that will all but end the chances for the break. Unless he can ride away solo, it is very unlikely that anybody will work with the world champion. This has cost him a lot of victories and could very well do so again. If Sagan joins the late attacks, we expect it to come down to a sprint.
There are several in-form sprinters at the moment. One of them is John Degenkolb. After his training crash, the German has finally returned to his best level. It all started in the second half of the Tour de France where he suddenly started to mix it up in the sprints and since he returned to racing, he has been absolutely flying. If he hadn’t had two late mechanicals, he would probably have won all three sprints at the Arctic Race of Norway and he went on to take a beautiful second place at EuroEyes Cyclassis. In that sprint, he was even the fastest rider and it was only his position that denied him the win.
Degenkolb is tailor-made for his race. Among the fast finishers, he is one of the very best climbers – in fact only Sagan, Matthews and Swift climb better than him. That’s a huge advantage in this kind of hard race as he will be a lot fresher than most of his rivals. Furthermore, both he and Kristoff has a reputation as being very hard to beat at the end of a long race and the 250km distance is simply perfect for Degenkolb who is a former winner of Milan-Sanremo.
Degenkolb’s big problem is his positioning as he is often caught out in the frantic finales. The sprint in Plouay is always chaotic but it’s important to be near the front at the top of the climb. With his good form, Degenkolb should be up there and then it’s not a big problem if he doesn’t have his best train here. Søren Kragh and Simon Geschke should be with him in the finale and that’s probably more than most of the sprinters will have. It requires a bit of luck to be find an opening but we will put our money on an in-form John Degenkolb.
It has been a difficult season for Nacer Bouhanni who missed the Tour de France after he injured his hand in a hotel altercation. His return to racing was difficult but now he seems to have found his best sprinting legs. The Frenchman was the fastest in the sprint at EuroEyes Cyclassics but was relegated due to irregular sprinting. He bounced back with two stage wins in the Tour du Poitou-Charentes which had a very strong field of sprinters and now he has set his sights on this race. He even skipped the final stage to get one extra day of recovery.
When on form, Bouhanni is a better climber that most sprinters and he should find this course to his liking. He has never done it before but on paper he has all the skills to do well. He should be able to make the selection and he is a master in positioning. This is very important in this very hectic sprint where it is hard to make a real lead-out. He can expect to have Christophe Laporte at his side in the finale and this will be valuable. On paper, he is one of the fastest here and with his good positioning skills, he has a great chance to win.
Alexander Kristoff is the defending champion but he will have a harder time in 2016. The field of sprinters is much stronger than it was 12 months ago and he hasn’t shown his best form. He won a stage in Norway but in that race Degenkolb was clearly faster. At the same time, his lead-out worked poorly and he didn’t do well when it came to positioning. It was the same in Hamburg where he had to start his sprint from too far back.
That trend is a bit unusual as Kristoff is usually one of the best when it comes to getting into the right position. However, he should still be one of the strongest sprinters on the climbs and he has one big advantage: the distance. Kristoff rarely loses a sprint at the end of a 250km race and he is simply the best in the world at the end of a long, hard race. His lead-out train may not survive the climbs but if he can finally become his usual self, it may not be a problem.
Peter Sagan finally makes his belated debut in a race that suits him down to the ground. However, it will be difficult to get the tactics right. He is probably the strongest on the short climbs but it won’t be easy to ride to a solo win. If he joins the move, it will cost in the sprint and if he stays in the peloton, he may lose out to the faster riders. We doubt that Sagan will be able to make it to the finish with a small group as no one wants to go with him so he either has to arrive solo or win the sprint. The former will be hard but the latter is possible. Usually, Kristoff, Degenkolb and Bouhanni are faster but Sagan is the best when it comes to positioning and so should benefit from the chaos. At the same time, he has been sprinting better than ever. His form is a bit uncertain as he has been focused on his mountain bike but Sagan is always on form!
Giacomo Nizzolo has been close to victory in the past and it is definitely a race that suits the Italian well. In the last 12 months, he has really improved his climbing and this will give him his best chance ever to be fast enough to win this sprint. He is great at positioning and should find the chaotic finale to his liking. Furthermore, there aren’t many riders faster than him and he has proved that he can handle the distance. Unfortunately, he was not at his best in his recent races but in Hamburg there were clear signs of improvement and we expect him to be even better here.
Bardiani go into the race with an in-form Sonny Colbrelli who has won three races in the last two weeks. On paper, the race suits the Italian pretty well. He climbs excellently – he was even third in Amstel Gold Race – and this year he has also improved his sprinting. He is not fast enough to win a sprint from a big group but with his current form he will be one of the best riders on the climbs. If he gets to the finish with a small group, he could very well be the fastest.
Like Sagan, Michael Matthews can both go with the attacks and wait for a sprint but he will likely opt for the latter. He is supported by a great team which will probably try to make the race as hard as possible which benefits the strong Australian. Usually, he is not fast enough to beat guys like Degenkolb and Kristoff but things can be different after 250km. Furthermore, he is surrounded by a great lead-out train for this kind of hard race as Daryl Impey, Luka Mezgec and Michael Albasini can all be there in the finale. This can make all the difference in a chaotic sprint like this. However, his form is a bit uncertain as he complained about really bad legs when he sprinted to third in RideLondon Classic and hasn’t raced for almost a month.
Tom Boonen has been absolutely flying since he signed his contract extension and this race is a big goal for him. He won a sprint in Wallonia and was superior in the sprint at RideLondon Classic. This course should suit him well as he climbs reasonably. Furthermore, he excels in sprints after long, hard races and he is definitely in great form and sprinting better than he has done for a long time. Most notably, he will have an in-form Matteo Trentin for the lead-out and this could very well make the difference in this hectic finale.
Sky go into the race with an in-form Danny Van Poppel. The Dutchman beat Degenkolb and Kristoff in Norway and finished fourth last week in Hamburg. This has provided him with lots of confidence for this race as he knows that he can be up there with the best. It’s a bit of an unknown whether he can handle the distance but he is definitely not a bad climber. Furthermore, he has Ben Swift and Gianni Moscon for the lead-out so he will be better supported than most if he can make the selection.
Greg Van Avermaet makes his return to racing following his Olympic victory. He has always been up there in this race by attacking on Ty Marrec but he has never been successful. This year he will try again and he is obviously riding better than ever. This is not a race for a solo move so he needs to be the fastest from a small group. This year he has been sprinting extremely well so it’s definitely possible if he can get rid of the likes of Sagan and Colbrelli who are faster in this kind of downhill sprint. Van Avermaet has huge confidence and he knows that he can beat most at the end of a hard race.
We have been very impressed by the way Moreno Hofland has been sprinting since the Giro. He was really strong in the Italian grand tour and he did really well in Norway too. In Hamburg he worked for Groenewegen but here he should be the protected sprinter. He is knocking on the door for a big win and in this kind of hectic sprint it is definitely possible for Hofland to beat the faster guys. He likes a hilly race and he has an in-form Sep Vanmarcke to do the lead-out job which he has done excellently in recent races.
Arnaud Demare has been climbing excellently in recent weeks but he has been sprinting terribly. He hasn’t really got much out of his great form. Most recently, he failed to shine in Poitou-Charentes and he was out of position in the sprint in Hamburg. However, Demare likes this kind of hard race and he should have a bigger chance than he had in Hamburg. After all he won Milan-Sanremo and he has the speed to beat everyone. The big problem is his positioning and so this hectic sprint is definitely not ideal for him.
On paper, this is a great race for Bryan Coquard whose climbing has reached new heights in 2016, most notably with his fourth place in the Amstel Gold Race. That makes this race perfect for the strong Frenchman but he seems to be out of form. After the Tour, he has been riding in both Limousin and Poitou-Charentes but he was nowhere to be seen in the sprints. He doesn’t seem to have the form to win this race, especially not after what is likely to be a hectic sprint where he will have a hard time with the positioning. However, the race suits him so well that he still has an outside chance.
Rui Costa was close to victory in this race in 2012 and he would love to finally get things right. The course is not ideal for him as the race is a bit too easy. However, he has been outstanding in recent weeks. He was one of the best in Rio where he even dropped Froome on the final climb and he was the strongest on Waseberg in Hamburg. If a late move makes it, Costa should be there. The big problem will be to win a sprint as riders like Van Avermaet, Sagan and Colbrelli are faster.
Gianni Moscon has always been a big talent but it is the last few weeks that have really revealed it to a broader audience. He won the Arctic Race of Norway and he finished fifth in Poitou-Charentes where he beat far better time triallists in the TT. He almost won the final stage with a big attack on the final climb and was only caught 200m from the line. In Paris-Roubaix, he showed that he can handle the long races too so we expect him to be there with the attacks in the finale. With his fast sprint, it’s not impossible to win the race.
Finally, we will point to Tony Gallopin. Lotto Soudal have numerous cards but Gallopin is probably the best. He had a terrible Tour but then suddenly returned to form in San Sebastian where he finished second and was able to follow the likes of Rodriguez and Valverde on the climbs. He has not raced since then but if he has maintained his form, he should be one of the best in the finale. He is fast in a sprint so he could very wll be the fastest in a small group that makes it to the finish.
***** John Degenkolb
**** Nacer Bouhanni, Alexander Kristoff
*** Peter Sagan, Giacomo Nizzolo, Sonny Colbrelli, Michael Matthews, Tom Boonen, Danny Van Poppel
** Greg Van Avermaet, Moreno Hofland, Arnaud Demare, Bryan Coquard, Rui Costa, Gianni Moscon, Tony Gallopin, Edvald Boasson Hagen
* Matteo Trentin, Jens Debusschere, Michael Albasini, Daryl Impey, Diego Ulissi, Tim Wellens, Sep Vanmarcke, Juan Jose Lobato, Sondre Holst Enger, Sylvain Chavanel, Heinrich Haussler, Ramunas Navardausas, Samuel Dumoulin, Jurgen Roelandts, Dimitri Claeys
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